Opinion 2024 and Beyond

[Callipygian]

Rampe probably also gone too at the end of 2025. So we also need a defensive leader.
Good questions you pose.
Horse likes a mature defence so I doubt it will be full of kids, more likely he'll try to convert a player or two.
So we should be confident of having McCartin, Blakey and Florent. Melican, Francis and Arnold are all young enough. Good enough is another matter but they are there.
Edwards might be good enough by then.
The #1 issue IMO is a leader to replace Rampe. Don't see one. Don't see one to convert.
The #2 issue is replacing Cunningham on the small forwards. My pick would be Roberts. Quick enough, tough enough. How to teach him?

Why can't McCartin be the defensive leader to replace Rampe? Also Florent and even Blakey in another couple of years?

Roberts to me seems a surprising option. To me Roberts has versatility but basically he's just a mid, through and through. I think Vickery is a promising small defender but really early days. I don't mind the possibility of moving Hayward back, except that (unlike many others) I think he's a good forward. McInerney could move back and I think he'd be good at it but I love him wherever he plays. Still time to find answers, including via trade in future trade periods.

 

[Punts]

Massive Parker fan and have been for years.

I’m worried that we could potentially ( hope not ) see an rok situation if he is going forward.

Hayward , heeney and Parker up front with the Talls makes us very slow and the ball might walk out.

Parker has the marking ability no doubt but his speed has never been a threat , if he is unable to to put pressure on and his opponent walks away the move forward could potentially end him quicker than give him longevity like the forward role some think it will

 

[Kiama Chris]

Why can't McCartin be the defensive leader to replace Rampe? Also Florent and even Blakey in another couple of years?

Roberts to me seems a surprising option. To me Roberts has versatility but basically he's just a mid, through and through. I think Vickery is a promising small defender but really early days. I don't mind the possibility of moving Hayward back, except that (unlike many others) I think he's a good forward. McInerney could move back and I think he'd be good at it but I love him wherever he plays. Still time to find answers, including via trade in future trade periods.

Do you see the leadership in McCartin? Not saying he doesn't have it but I don't see it shining. Be wonderful if he does.
Not saying Roberts IS the answer but that perhaps he's worth a look, along with others who have been mentioned.
Moving Florent back improved the team but I think moving Hayward back would do the opposite unless we had someone significantly better to replace him. We don't.
McInerney, Campbell, Jordon could all work effectively in a rotation if there is enough room. There may not be.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Massive Parker fan and have been for years.

I’m worried that we could potentially ( hope not ) see an rok situation if he is going forward.

Hayward , heeney and Parker up front with the Talls makes us very slow and the ball might walk out.

Parker has the marking ability no doubt but his speed has never been a threat , if he is unable to to put pressure on and his opponent walks away the move forward could potentially end him quicker than give him longevity like the forward role some think it will

That's my thoughts regarding Parker, it's not just about moving Parker into the forward line because he's an overall better player than the player he's replacing. It's about team balance, he's not a pressure forward. And replacing a pressure forward with Parker would have a negative impact on the overall structure of the forward line.

Imo, if Parker gets to the point where he's spending all of his time up forward, I find it highly unlikely that he has much more time to go. I understand a split between mid and forward in the latter years, but it's to replace a Heeney, Hayward or a tall. And not in place of a pressure forward.

 

[rustycrate]

Whats our tall defence gonna look like?
T Macartin - Yep
Hamling, Francis, Melican, Arnold, Edwards
Good chance 3 of them are gone end of 2024
Hoping to draft a tall defender

Whats our small medium defence gonna look like??
Lloyd, Cunningham, Fox, Florent, Vickory?
Good chance Lloyd, Cunningham and Fox are all gone end of 2025

Who can play small lockdown or distributer roles?
Magor - was moved back 2nd half of VFL season. Maybe hes seen as a potential, or maybe he was moved back as he was starved of the footy at half forward? Whatever the reason, He played well.
Vickory - No idea on him?
Corey Warner - has the pace, strength and loves the contest. Could be an option?
Wicks - I dont reckon he has the composure. Hes definitely got the pace, but....
Mitchell, James Jordan - just throwing names out there??

The defence

Hamling and Arnold are signed until 2025.
Melican, Francis and Edwards to 2024.
Edwards I like the look of but is still developing. Can ruck too and at 197 is taller than the rest.
Melican I can see being moved on if we get improvement from Edwards.
Arnold needs to press his claims.
Francis is reliable known quantity and good backup for 3rd tall.
Hence we have too many KPDs to warrant drafting another. I like the look of ZZ too but I just don't see the need at this stage. Swans don't generally draft KPDs. They just don't.

Our medium defence is aging.
Rampe(33) signed to 2025.
Lloyd(28) signed to 2025.
Cunningham(30) signed to 2024.
Magor and Vickory have no runs on the board. And are likely not getting a look in because Rampe, Lloyd, Cunningham, Fox, Florent don't get injured much. Also mids like McInerney, Campbell, Mills and others have form here and no opportunities arise for these players.
If Rampe goes down then one of Francis, McInerney or Mills takes his spot.
If Lloyd goes down then Campbell or another mid fills the role.
If Cunningham goes down we may get inventive. But putting a zero gamer in defence I cannot see it happening.

Magor and Vickory need to stand out in the VFL this year or they will be on notice. Swans usually fill medium/smalls in the backline with mids. That is how we roll. I don't see anything changing.

And we have a plethora of mids wanting game time.

 

[Kiama Chris]

The defence

Hamling and Arnold are signed until 2025.
Melican, Francis and Edwards to 2024.
Edwards I like the look of but is still developing. Can ruck too and at 197 is taller than the rest.
Melican I can see being moved on if we get improvement from Edwards.
Arnold needs to press his claims.
Francis is reliable known quantity and good backup for 3rd tall.
Hence we have too many KPDs to warrant drafting another. I like the look of ZZ too but I just don't see the need at this stage. Swans don't generally draft KPDs. They just don't.

Our medium defence is aging.
Rampe(33) signed to 2025.
Lloyd(28) signed to 2025.
Cunningham(30) signed to 2024.
Magor and Vickory have no runs on the board. And are likely not getting a look in because Rampe, Lloyd, Cunningham, Fox, Florent don't get injured much. Also mids like McInerney, Campbell, Mills and others have form here and no opportunities arise for these players.
If Rampe goes down then one of Francis, McInerney or Mills takes his spot.
If Lloyd goes down then Campbell or another mid fills the role.
If Cunningham goes down we may get inventive. But putting a zero gamer in defence I cannot see it happening.

Magor and Vickory need to stand out in the VFL this year or they will be on notice. Swans usually fill medium/smalls in the backline with mids. That is how we roll. I don't see anything changing.

Agree with almost all of this.
Lloyd might have as much as 5 years left in him.
Rampe as a player is not that hard to replace at this stage of his career. Leadership is a different matter.
Cunningham has been in and out a bit these last 2 seasons but at present there's no obvious replacement. It will certainly need to come from within.
If we can see both Melican and Francis moving on then perhaps we might consider drafting a KPD IF WE THINK THEY'RE PROMISING ENOUGH. But otherwise probably not.

 

[rustycrate]

Agree with almost all of this.
Lloyd might have as much as 5 years left in him.
Rampe as a player is not that hard to replace at this stage of his career. Leadership is a different matter.
Cunningham has been in and out a bit these last 2 seasons but at present there's no obvious replacement. It will certainly need to come from within.
If we can see both Melican and Francis moving on then perhaps we might consider drafting a KPD IF WE THINK THEY'RE PROMISING ENOUGH. But otherwise probably not.

I think we keep Francis as he is a known reliable quantity. I agree with your last sentence and I like the look of ZZ. DQ is usually on the money and from what I have read about ZZ he looks the goods. But I just can't see why we would do it with what we already have. I could be wrong though.

 

[Wolftone]

Do you see the leadership in McCartin? Not saying he doesn't have it but I don't see it shining. Be wonderful if he does.
Not saying Roberts IS the answer but that perhaps he's worth a look, along with others who have been mentioned.
Moving Florent back improved the team but I think moving Hayward back would do the opposite unless we had someone significantly better to replace him. We don't.
McInerney, Campbell, Jordon could all work effectively in a rotation if there is enough room. There may not be.

I don't see Tommy's leadership. A backline leader needs to be animated and direct traffic. I haven't seen Tommy do this. Nor have I seen Lloydy do it much either, although when Rampe was out he got better at it. Maybe Hamling will come in and perform that role. He seemed to do it at the Dockers.

i don't see Roberts in that role. He is an inside mid who can get the ball out and also is a link up player.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I don't see Tommy's leadership. A backline leader needs to be animated and direct traffic. I haven't seen Tommy do this. Nor have I seen Lloydy do it much either, although when Rampe was out he got better at it. Maybe Hamling will come in and perform that role. He seemed to do it at the Dockers.

i don't see Roberts in that role. He is an inside mid who can get the ball out and also is a link up player.

The only backline leader other than Rampe I've seen is Fox and he can't hold his spot.
Hamling would be nice.

 

[rustycrate]

The only backline leader other than Rampe I've seen is Fox and he can't hold his spot.
Hamling would be nice.

Probably like some have said on here. Mills like a Dependlebery will go back in a few years time and be that general.

 

[mtooler]

Draft Murphy or ZZ. Reid as back up if injuries go nuts. Trading in smalls is dime a dozen, can't teach height. Hope we go KPD first pick or KPF.

Back 6 2024:

Rampe Hamling (Florent/Cunningham)
Blakey McCartin Lloyd

Seems the likely set up with Campbell and Mcinerney rolling through half back as needed. Florent or Cunningham fighting for the lockdown defender role.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Why can't McCartin be the defensive leader to replace Rampe? Also Florent and even Blakey in another couple of years?

Roberts to me seems a surprising option. To me Roberts has versatility but basically he's just a mid, through and through. I think Vickery is a promising small defender but really early days. I don't mind the possibility of moving Hayward back, except that (unlike many others) I think he's a good forward. McInerney could move back and I think he'd be good at it but I love him wherever he plays. Still time to find answers, including via trade in future trade periods.

Agree x 2.

It makes no sense to try to find one player to replace Rampe. His defensive and leadership skills are both entire, we will need to fill them through a combinations of different players.

If Roberts becomes a champion small defender I’ll happily eat my hat but at this stage I can’t see it. To me he looks a hard running midfielder in the mould of Hannebery (not that I expect him to reach those lofty heights).

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

That's my thoughts regarding Parker, it's not just about moving Parker into the forward line because he's an overall better player than the player he's replacing. It's about team balance, he's not a pressure forward. And replacing a pressure forward with Parker would have a negative impact on the overall structure of the forward line.

Imo, if Parker gets to the point where he's spending all of his time up forward, I find it highly unlikely that he has much more time to go. I understand a split between mid and forward in the latter years, but it's to replace a Heeney, Hayward or a tall. And not in place of a pressure forward.

Jude Bolton did alright near the closing stages of his career. I reckon Parker will play a similar role.

 

[SGBeach]

Hamling and Arnold are signed until 2025.
Melican, Francis and Edwards to 2024.
Edwards I like the look of but is still developing. Can ruck too and at 197 is taller than the rest.
Melican I can see being moved on if we get improvement from Edwards.
Arnold needs to press his claims.
Francis is reliable known quantity and good backup for 3rd tall.
Hence we have too many KPDs to warrant drafting another. I like the look of ZZ too but I just don't see the need at this stage. Swans don't generally draft KPDs. They just don't.

Arnold, Melican, Francis and Edwards are all out of contract next year.
Swans have shopped around Melican the last two trade periods and Melican has ended up with 2 x one year extensions. Melican needs a big year (which I reckon he can have)
Francis is a known quantity. Hes known to be not very good. He failed to own his spot this year despite the truckload of injuries to our talls. I wouldn't be surprised if hes not at the Swans 2025.
Edwards is developing.. he needs to continue to develop.
Arnold needs a big year too.

We drafted Melican, Edwards and Arnold (+ Aliir Aliir). We would of drafted Granger-Barrass if Logan wasn't available. To say we dont draft tall defenders is not true
We tried to trade HH, Barrass, McKay - so we clearly we were looking for a quality KPD to support McCartin. We traded a 30 yo Hamling as the 4th or 5th choice.
Swans are basically left with McCartin, 2 developing in Arnold & Edwards, and 3 who are just as likely to not receive another contract in Melican, Francis (2024), Hamling (2025)
Theres no reason we dont draft a tall defender

 

[SGBeach]

Draft Murphy or ZZ. Reid as back up if injuries go nuts. Trading in smalls is dime a dozen, can't teach height. Hope we go KPD first pick or KPF.

Back 6 2024:

Rampe Hamling (Florent/Cunningham)
Blakey McCartin Lloyd

Seems the likely set up with Campbell and Mcinerney rolling through half back as needed. Florent or Cunningham fighting for the lockdown defender role.

Both Florent and Cunningham are locks in the b22

 

[rustycrate]

Arnold, Melican, Francis and Edwards are all out of contract next year.
Swans have shopped around Melican the last two trade periods and Melican has ended up with 2 x one year extensions. Melican needs a big year (which I reckon he can have)
Francis is a known quantity. Hes known to be not very good. He failed to own his spot this year despite the truckload of injuries to our talls. I wouldn't be surprised if hes not at the Swans 2025.
Edwards is developing.. he needs to continue to develop.
Arnold needs a big year too.

We drafted Melican, Edwards and Arnold (+ Aliir Aliir). We would of drafted Granger-Barrass if Logan wasn't available. To say we dont draft tall defenders is not true
We tried to trade HH, Barrass, McKay - so we clearly we were looking for a quality KPD to support McCartin. We traded a 30 yo Hamling as the 4th or 5th choice.
Swans are basically left with McCartin, 2 developing in Arnold & Edwards, and 3 who are just as likely to not receive another contract in Melican, Francis (2024), Hamling (2025)
Theres no reason we dont draft a tall defender

I will believe we have drafted a KPD when I see it. I am on record as saying I would love to draft ZZ. I just cannot see it with what we have on our list. I am not emotional about it. I am clear minded and voicing reasoning. If I was emotional then I would agree with you.

None of our KPDs were drafted in the AFL draft as defenders.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I will believe we have drafted a KPD when I see it. I am on record as saying I would love to draft ZZ. I just cannot see it with what we have on our list. I am not emotional about it. I am clear minded and voicing reasoning. If I was emotional then I would agree with you.

None of our KPDs were drafted in the AFL draft as defenders.

I see what you're saying. Melican, Edwards and Arnold were rookie drafted and Francis traded. You're talking about the NATIONAL DRAFT. Sneaky

 

[SGBeach]

I will believe we have drafted a KPD when I see it. I am on record as saying I would love to draft ZZ. I just cannot see it with what we have on our list. I am not emotional about it. I am clear minded and voicing reasoning. If I was emotional then I would agree with you.

None of our KPDs were drafted in the AFL draft as defenders.

sorry Rusty.. this is not an emotional discussion.
The Swans were clearly trying to get a quality KPD.
Melican (IMO) might come good, but hes been plagued by injuries ever since he did his ACL 3 years ago.
Ive no faith in Francis, based on what Ive seen and also based on the fact that he didn't hold his spot last year despite all the injuries.
Hamling is 30 and has played 6 AFL games over the last 4 seasons - doesn't fill one with confidence
Arnold was plucked out of Brisbane VFL team at 24 years old
Edwards was a cat B rookie

Our KPDs run very thin

ps. We drafted Aliir in the 2nd round and would've drafted DGB with p4. Melican, Edwards, Arnold were all drafted, just not in the national draft. Theres no reason why we wouldn't draft a KPD with our 1st pick.
pps.. Ive faith in Melican getting his body right, Ive high hopes for both Edwards and Arnold and I reckon Hamling is a good chance of playing his role for two years

 

[rustycrate]

I see what you're saying. Melican, Edwards and Arnold were rookie drafted and Francis traded. You're talking about the NATIONAL DRAFT. Sneaky

Not sneaky. We just don't AFL draft KPDs. When was the last one?
Sure we rookie draft. We trade. But we don't AFL draft KPDs. I'd like us to get ZZ as some of our KPDs have no upside. But I am not trying to be sneaky. I just look at our AFL drafting history, and Beetson has been around for so long, that you see patterns. Do we not AFL draft KPDs because the opportunity cost of a mid or KPF is much better?
We don't rookie mids except Cat B.
We don't AFL draft KPDs.
These in the last 10-15 years under Beetson are facts. There must be a reason be it salary cap(we can go cheap on KPDs to pay more in other areas). I don't know but I see patterns in our trading and drafting.

 

[caesar88]

Massive Parker fan and have been for years.

I’m worried that we could potentially ( hope not ) see an rok situation if he is going forward.

Hayward , heeney and Parker up front with the Talls makes us very slow and the ball might walk out.

Parker has the marking ability no doubt but his speed has never been a threat , if he is unable to to put pressure on and his opponent walks away the move forward could potentially end him quicker than give him longevity like the forward role some think it will

Don't know that I agree but this was a very interesting point.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Our forward line lacks pace. If Parker and Adams largely share a spot forward it won’t be at the expense of Wicks or Papley. It will be one of the mediums in Hayward or Heeney and it won’t be the latter. Horse is rusted to the idea of running three tall forwards who are often on the ground at the same time.

I reckon the Adams/Parker spot will average 1.6 + goals per game. I also believe our forward line needs leadership and in game organisation. These guys are both very smart.

 

[RUNVS]

Our forward line lacks pace. If Parker and Adams largely share a spot forward it won’t be at the expense of Wicks or Papley. It will be one of the mediums in Hayward or Heeney and it won’t be the latter. Horse is rusted to the idea of running three tall forwards who are often on the ground at the same time.

I reckon the Adams/Parker spot will average 1.6 + goals per game. I also believe our forward line needs leadership and in game organisation. These guys are both very smart.

I really hope we don't play Adams forward. That is not his ideal position and his ideal position is somewhere we really struggle with.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I really hope we don't play Adams forward. That is not his ideal position and his ideal position is somewhere we really struggle with.

ideally it balances out with Parker spending the bulk of his tog up forward and Adams in the mids, but spending a small proportion forward.

 

[SGBeach]

Our forward line lacks pace. If Parker and Adams largely share a spot forward it won’t be at the expense of Wicks or Papley. It will be one of the mediums in Hayward or Heeney and it won’t be the latter. Horse is rusted to the idea of running three tall forwards who are often on the ground at the same time.

I reckon the Adams/Parker spot will average 1.6 + goals per game. I also believe our forward line needs leadership and in game organisation. These guys are both very smart.

Yep the forward set up next year will be interesting.
I think theres room for all.
McLean is likely to spend time as the ruck when Grundy is off.
Heeney is likely to spend time in the mids or on a wing
Paps is likely to have bursts through the mids when he needs to get into the game
So those three combined will play a fair bit of midfield minutes.

Im guessing the plan for Parker and Adams is to have at least one of them Fresh and inside the midfield, sometimes both.
Along with Paps and Wicks (I reckon we could see Konstanty get a few games this year at Wicks' expense), Hayward is the other player with pace and often plays a pressure role on the oppos interceptor. Fingers crossed his finds his kicking boots again - him and Heeney

 

[Kiama Chris]

Yep the forward set up next year will be interesting.
I think theres room for all.
McLean is likely to spend time as the ruck when Grundy is off.
Heeney is likely to spend time in the mids or on a wing
Paps is likely to have bursts through the mids when he needs to get into the game
So those three combined will play a fair bit of midfield minutes.

Im guessing the plan for Parker and Adams is to have at least one of them Fresh and inside the midfield, sometimes both.
Along with Paps and Wicks (I reckon we could see Konstanty get a few games this year at Wicks' expense), Hayward is the other player with pace and often plays a pressure role on the oppos interceptor. Fingers crossed his finds his kicking boots again - him and Heeney

Factoring in bench time is always the key in working those rotations, along with where the ball is on the field eg if we're stuck in defence for a period.
I hope Wicks stays fit and plays well enough to keep Kon in reserves.