Position 2024 Fantasy Rucks

[Phar Ace]

Round 0 sees the clash of "MATES"...... well former team mates at least GRUNDY vs GAWN. The massive plan of tag teaming Grundy with Gawn was a much heralded fail.

From a Fantasy perspective, we don't care how much Collingwood was paying of Grundy's salary, or even if any of that goes to Sydney now. We just want a durable ruck who can give a viable alternative to English or Marshall at a fraction of the cost. We are bargain hunting here! So we look first at last season:



Then Grundy's output the season before (2022):


And for good measure, the season before that (2021):


It's not a particularly deep dive. Impacts the big Cox and Darcy Cameron

14

Darcy Cameron

Age

28

Ht

204cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

3.5

5star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.7

3star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

has had on his output could be looked at as well, but I doubt it will have a material effect on the following question:

If you are considering Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

for your Fantasy side, what do you need to see from him in the Mates Showdown in Sydney between Grundy and Gawn on Thursday March 7th?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Rucks
Player	Club	Position	Games 2023	Average 2023		Player	Club	Position	Games 2023	Average 2023
Tim English	WB	RUCK	23	118.7		Nathan Kreuger	COLL	RUCK/FWD	2	10
Rowan Marshall	STK	RUCK	23	115.8		Harry Barnett	WCE	RUCK/FWD	1	9
Toby Nankervis	RICH	RUCK	15	102.3		Kieran Strachan	ADEL	RUCK
Sean Darcy	FREM	RUCK	15	95.4		Henry Smith	BL	RUCK/FWD
Kieren Briggs	GWS	RUCK	14	94.1		Kalin Lane	BL	RUCK
Max Gawn	MELB	RUCK	20	92.1		Alex Mirkov	CARL	RUCK
Jarrod Witts	GCS	RUCK	21	90.8		Hudson O'Keeffe	CARL	RUCK
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	RUCK	23	88.4		Aiden Begg	COLL	RUCK
Luke Jackson	FREM	RUCK/FWD	23	84.7		Oscar Steene	COLL	RUCK/FWD
Darcy Cameron	COLL	RUCK	16	84		Liam Reidy	FREM	RUCK
Oscar McInerney	BL	RUCK	22	82.7		Max Knobel	FREM	RUCK
Mark Blicavs	GEEL	RUCK/MID	19	81.5		Braydon Preuss	GWS	RUCK
Ivan Soldo	PA	RUCK	8	78.6		Nicholas Madden	GWS	RUCK
Bailey J. Williams	WCE	RUCK	23	76.7		Clay Tucker	HAW	RUCK
Peter Ladhams	SYD	RUCK	9	76.2		Kyah Farris-White	MELB	RUCK
Brodie Grundy	SYD	RUCK	17	75		Will Verrall	MELB	RUCK
Matt Flynn	WCE	RUCK	9	73.8		Hamish Free	NM	RUCK
Todd Goldstein	ESS	RUCK	20	73.3		Jordon Sweet	PA	RUCK
Rhys Stanley	GEEL	RUCK	13	71.3		Mate Colina	RICH	RUCK/FWD
Sam Draper	ESS	RUCK	14	66.6		Max Heath	STK	RUCK/FWD
Tom De Koning	CARL	RUCK	16	66.3		Tom Campbell	STK	RUCK
Tristan Xerri	NM	RUCK	9	66		Zane Zakostelsky	BL	DEF/RUCK
Hayden McLean	SYD	RUCK/FWD	21	65.6		Vigo Visentini	ESS	RUCK
Ned Reeves	HAW	RUCK	21	60.9		Odin Jones	FREM	RUCK
Mason Cox	COLL	RUCK/FWD	16	59.4		Joe Furphy	GEEL	RUCK
Lloyd Meek	HAW	RUCK	16	59.4		Mitchell Edwards	GEEL	RUCK
Marc Pittonet	CARL	RUCK	15	58.7		Ethan Read	GCS	RUCK
Nick Bryan	ESS	RUCK	8	54.9		Taylor Goad	NM	RUCK
Ned Moyle	GCS	RUCK	2	54		Finnbar Maley	NM	RUCK/FWD
Toby Conway	GEEL	RUCK	1	48		Sam Naismith	RICH	RUCK
Samson Ryan	RICH	RUCK/FWD	14	46.6		Oliver Hayes-Brown	RICH	RUCK
Ben Miller	RICH	RUCK/FWD	13	45.4		William Green	SYD	RUCK
Darcy Fort	BL	RUCK/FWD	7	45.3		Archer Reid	WCE	RUCK/FWD
Lachlan McAndrew	SYD	RUCK	2	42		Coen Livingstone	WCE	RUCK/FWD
Dante Visentini	PA	RUCK	3	39.7		Lachlan Smith	WB	RUCK

 

[tigs2010]

How the * is Soldo ruck only?

Spent half his life in the bloody goal square ffs.

 

[JDWCE]

How the * is Soldo ruck only?

Spent half his life in the bloody goal square ffs.

Yeah confusing hey. I had him penned in as a great pick for our forward lines

 

[WaynesWorld19]

The player from your AFL club who is set to explode in 2024

We look at each of the 18 clubs.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Shadow89]

How the * is Soldo ruck only?

Spent half his life in the bloody goal square ffs.

Ditto Grundy. Spent the back end of the season as a pure forward...yet somehow ruck only.

Riddle me that CD

 

[Shadow89]

View attachment 1860603

The player from your AFL club who is set to explode in 2024

We look at each of the 18 clubs.

www.sen.com.au

R3 locked in since Round 24 this season. Kid will get a LOT of games next season, and will be priced at 35ish (48 - 27% due to playing 1 game).

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Can anyone explain how Naismith is priced at approx 55 avg $521k when he has played only 2 games in six years and the last one was more than 3 years ago? Even then he only averaged 77

 

[tigs2010]

Pretty set on trusty old Gawndy here.

Gawn 113.1 without Grundy last year. (121 taking that stinker in the last game)
Grundy went at 100.25 without Gawn.

Gawn is probably a season hold. Grundy probably needs to become English at some point.

The downside is they’re both R0 players and have to have an early bye.

Any cheap rookies anyone expecting to play as R3 options?

 

[TryAnHit]

Pretty set on trusty old Gawndy here.

Gawn 113.1 without Grundy last year. (121 taking that stinker in the last game)
Grundy went at 100.25 without Gawn.

Gawn is probably a season hold. Grundy probably needs to become English at some point.

The downside is they’re both R0 players and have to have an early bye.

Any cheap rookies anyone expecting to play as R3 options?

Conway from Geelong

 

[tigs2010]

Conway from Geelong

Id want him playing R1 at his price. Definitely on the watch list though.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Can anyone explain how Naismith is priced at approx 55 avg $521k when he has played only 2 games in six years and the last one was more than 3 years ago? Even then he only averaged 77

Same as Coffield - hasn’t played/scored since 2021 but priced about 40.

Might be wrong but sounds a bit like making up as you go.

 

[4tune8]

Can anyone explain how Naismith is priced at approx 55 avg $521k when he has played only 2 games in six years and the last one was more than 3 years ago? Even then he only averaged 77

It's one of the more frustrating things in AFLF for mine. What they've done is apply the 30% discount on that 77 even though it was so long ago.

What should happen IMO is the 30% should apply for each year missing and a pro rata discount if some games are missed in the previous 2 years.

The formula is 3% discount for every game under 10 played, so 7 games played = discount of 9%, 0 games played = 30%
Because Naismith hasn't played for 3 years then he should receive a 90% discount (3 years x 30%) meaning his price would be $200k

Same with Coffield, he didn't play last season so they've applied the 30% discount on his 2021 season average of 61. He's missed 2 years so his discount should be 60% which again would see him priced at $200k

 

[danster168]

Pretty set on trusty old Gawndy here.

Gawn 113.1 without Grundy last year. (121 taking that stinker in the last game)
Grundy went at 100.25 without Gawn.

Gawn is probably a season hold. Grundy probably needs to become English at some point.

The downside is they’re both R0 players and have to have an early bye.

Any cheap rookies anyone expecting to play as R3 options?

why would Gawn be a hold? He isn't going to average what English and Marshall do

 

[tigs2010]

why would Gawn be a hold? He isn't going to average what English and Marshall do

Solo ruck he wasn’t far off them. I’m thinking that Melbourne/Richmond bye will be first or second week of proper upgrades and wouldn’t waste that going Gawn to one of them.

 

[danster168]

Solo ruck he wasn’t far off them. I’m thinking that Melbourne/Richmond bye will be first or second week of proper upgrades and wouldn’t waste that going Gawn to one of them.

well he was like 8 or 9 points off english. That's significant. Plus English is a captain choice. Gawn isn't.
5 of his last 6 games Gawn didn't get over 100.

 

[Cm Perfect]

well he was like 8 or 9 points off english. That's significant. Plus English is a captain choice. Gawn isn't.
5 of his last 6 games Gawn didn't get over 100.

Gawn gets to his average by ripping off these 150+ point monster games every so often to offset the lower scores. I'm confident he can still do that, and get close enough to English with a whole season as solo ruck.

 

[Barrybran]

well he was like 8 or 9 points off english. That's significant. Plus English is a captain choice. Gawn isn't.
5 of his last 6 games Gawn didn't get over 100.

Gawn gets to his average by ripping off these 150+ point monster games every so often to offset the lower scores. I'm confident he can still do that, and get close enough to English with a whole season as solo ruck.

And they're priced 25 points apart. English is not going to be 25 points better than Gawn even if he averages 118 again.

 

[danster168]

And they're priced 25 points apart. English is not going to be 25 points better than Gawn even if he averages 118 again.

true. but you're not factoring in many things. 1: Gawn is missing an extra game with the bye. 2: English is a captain option each week. 3: If gawn or Grundy go down injured, you have to gut your whole team to get in English or Marshall. 4: you're not factoring in that you'll have to use an extra trade at some point to go Gawn to English. 5: when you pick a gun like English, you're not picking him for value.

 

[Phar Ace]

It's one of the more frustrating things in AFLF for mine. What they've done is apply the 30% discount on that 77 even though it was so long ago.

What should happen IMO is the 30% should apply for each year missing and a pro rata discount if some games are missed in the previous 2 years.

The formula is 3% discount for every game under 10 played, so 7 games played = discount of 9%, 0 games played = 30%
Because Naismith hasn't played for 3 years then he should receive a 90% discount (3 years x 30%) meaning his price would be $200k

Same with Coffield, he didn't play last season so they've applied the 30% discount on his 2021 season average of 61. He's missed 2 years so his discount should be 60% which again would see him priced at $200k

Warnie got back to me on this....

"People want clear, consistent and transparent pricing rules.
If a player misses a full year, they receive a 30% discount AND a 5% discount for every subsequent year based on the last available average.
Naismith averaged 77*1.25 in 2020.
While it was flagged, keeping rules is more important."

Not sure what the *1.25 means, but looks like he received a 30% discount for 2021, another 5% for 2022 and another 5% for 2023.

 

[tigs2010]

Warnie got back to me on this....

"People want clear, consistent and transparent pricing rules.
If a player misses a full year, they receive a 30% discount AND a 5% discount for every subsequent year based on the last available average.
Naismith averaged 77*1.25 in 2020.
While it was flagged, keeping rules is more important."

Not sure what the *1.25 means, but looks like he received a 30% discount for 2021, another 5% for 2022 and another 5% for 2023.

*1.25 is for Covid short quarters. So his 77 was more like 96.

true. but you're not factoring in many things. 1: Gawn is missing an extra game with the bye. 2: English is a captain option each week. 3: If gawn or Grundy go down injured, you have to gut your whole team to get in English or Marshall. 4: you're not factoring in that you'll have to use an extra trade at some point to go Gawn to English. 5: when you pick a gun like English, you're not picking him for value.

I’m looking at Gawn compared to Marshall tbh. My plan is for Grundy to become English.

Can definitely see benefit of set and forget here though. Are you going both English and Marshall or English and a value option?

 

[Phar Ace]

*1.25 is for Covid short quarters. So his 77 was more like 96.


I’m looking at Gawn compared to Marshall tbh. My plan is for Grundy to become English.

Can definitely see benefit of set and forget here though. Are you going both English and Marshall or English and a value option?

Ah, sometimes you astound me with your smarts

 

[Barrybran]

true. but you're not factoring in many things. 1: Gawn is missing an extra game with the bye. 2: English is a captain option each week. 3: If gawn or Grundy go down injured, you have to gut your whole team to get in English or Marshall. 4: you're not factoring in that you'll have to use an extra trade at some point to go Gawn to English. 5: when you pick a gun like English, you're not picking him for value.

I hear you. I've made a team already with English for these reasons. This happened to me last year with Xerri and Darcy. There's a world where you could pick English and Marshall as a true set and forget and focus on value elsewhere. I'm even considering Jackson or a value R3 instead of Heath/Barnett if I go the Gawn/Grundy route for these reasons.

 

[Phar Ace]

I hear you. I've made a team already with English for these reasons. This happened to me last year with Xerri and Darcy. There's a world where you could pick English and Marshall as a true set and forget and focus on value elsewhere. I'm even considering Jackson or a value R3 instead of Heath/Barnett if I go the Gawn/Grundy route for these reasons.

Was hovering on the whole English / Marshall set and forget thing too, and mainly because they could in effect be a 100-150pt better play for each of them due to having only one bye (you get that with Xerri and Jackson too), But another kicker is both E & M give you 14 uninterrupted games (they have the Rnd 15 bye along with Ad, Ha, Ri & Co).

Making Jackson a FWD until then has a good feel to it (though DDP's may just change that in Rnd 6 / 12) as he has the Rnd 14 Bye and could help Rnd 15 when chasing 18 pulses gets the hardest usually.

It's just so compelling!

 

[Barrybran]

Was hovering on the whole English / Marshall set and forget thing too, and mainly because they could in effect be a 100-150pt better play for each of them due to having only one bye (you get that with Xerri and Jackson too), But another kicker is both E & M give you 14 uninterrupted games (they have the Rnd 15 bye along with Ad, Ha, Ri & Co).

Making Jackson a FWD until then has a good feel to it (though DDP's may just change that in Rnd 6 / 12) as he has the Rnd 14 Bye and could help Rnd 15 when chasing 18 pulses gets the hardest usually.

It's just so compelling!

After last year I tried to create some 'rules' for my side. Set and forget rucks is one of them so danster's points are bang on. But Gawn/Grundy is pretty bloody tempting. Another rule I had for my side was to carry four rucks - R1-R3 and a RUC/FWD. This could be English / Marshall / Heath / Barnett but it could also be Gawn / Grundy / Jackson and one of Heath / Barnett / Soldo / Sweet / Xerri. There are SO many viable combinations this year.

The only downside I see to an English / Marshall pairing is that both have the R15 bye. There is a lot of time to tidy that up but who are you going to for those rounds? Likely some combination of Gawn and Grundy. So you're trading one of them in anyway.