AFL 2014 ROUND 2

[Anzac16]

Some bets for tonight.

1U - Dyson Heppell Over 95.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Dyson Heppell Over 25.5 Possessions @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Total Points Over 197.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
EDIT - 1U - Jack Gunston 2+ Goals @ $1.80 (Luxbet)

Okay so I am staying away from player markets for a little bit here. Too unpredictable at this stage of the year.

So I have a $50 free bet on Luxbet. Thinking I will throw that on GWS today, then throw another $50 on the Saints on Sportsbet to guarantee some winnings. Especially with the Sportsbet offer on at the moment.

 

[sneak]

1u coll vs syd under 172.5 @1.87 also stk vs gws under 197.5 @1.40
maybe coll vs syd under 157.5 @ 3.00

 

[pistol17]

Multi
GWS 1-39
Port H2H
Freo 60+

$13.27

 

[Willzzz]

Anyone know who Curren/Jones will be tagging today?
Thinking of getting on the Unders for Callan Ward but not sure if he will cop a tag.

 

[laam]

well hopefully its not treloar as I have just taken the overs on him. Been a great weekend so far though

1u GWS win @ 2.1 (with sportsbets refund offer)
1u treloar > 26 disposals DNB @ 1.87
0.7u Cameron most goals @ 2.75 tailing lenny

 

[TheKanga]

Saturday Multi

St Kilda (-3.5)
Port Adelaide (1-39)
Collingwood (+16.5)
Fremantle (40+)

0.5u @ 16.10

Also thinking of backing Collingwood H2H as well but will wait until later to place that.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Okay so I am staying away from player markets for a little bit here. Too unpredictable at this stage of the year.

So I have a $50 free bet on Luxbet. Thinking I will throw that on GWS today, then throw another $50 on the Saints on Sportsbet to guarantee some winnings. Especially with the Sportsbet offer on at the moment.

heppells games against hawks in dreamteam score have been 91, 84, 81, not that unpredictable.

 

[Quite Ironic]

well hopefully its not treloar as I have just taken the overs on him. Been a great weekend so far though

1u GWS win @ 2.1 (with sportsbets refund offer)
1u treloar > 26 disposals DNB @ 1.87
0.7u Cameron most goals @ 2.75 tailing lenny

got over this just 5 times last year with 3 times being 27 and the game against saints he got 21.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Question, as I have forgotten the answer from last year where it happened once

I have
Goddard over Mitchell, and Prestia over O'Meara in a DT Multi (2.89) - Sportsbet
Because Mitchell is a late out, and that bet becomes void, does it also reduce the odds of this bet down to 1.65 (which was what Prestia was) or do I still get the 2.89
Had this happen last year, and i forget what happened

Other bets for the week
Hawthorn - HT/FT Double + Geelong over 15.5 = 2.87

Ward over Riewoldt (DT)
Barlow over Fyfe (DT)
Masten over Priddis (DT)
Cooney over Ziebell (DT)
= 11.69

What's your reaosning on this? i went the opposite.

 

[laam]

got over this just 5 times last year with 3 times being 27 and the game against saints he got 21.

yep, am aware of last years stats, I'm expecting a break out year from him and against a lower quality team will have a better chance to get more of the ball.
his 50:50 over under line last year was 24.5 disposals. Think he can improve this by 2.

also some more
1u riewoldt > 95.5 @ 1.87
and two tails
1u ebert>boak @ 1.95
1u masten > priddis @ 2.15

 

[pistol17]

What's your reaosning on this? i went the opposite.

I'd say because Mastens last 2 starts have been 120 & 113 compared to Priddis 98 & 97

 

[Quite Ironic]

I'd say because Mastens last 2 starts have been 120 & 113 compared to Priddis 98 & 97

bigger sample size see's masten average 91 and priddis 101 against melbourne though.

 

[Quite Ironic]

bigger sample size see's masten average 91 and priddis 101 against melbourne though.

also have to factor in the fact simpson said masten may play more shutdown roles this year than pure ball collecting midfield.

 

[laam]

What's your reaosning on this? i went the opposite.

Ive taken the same, but reasoning is masten a bit of a downhill skier, so should do well against melbourne, also last year this was a 50:50 proposition so odds of 2.15 on a 50:50 is a good deal

 

[free at last]

Just laid a 3 leg multi consisting of total points under cats v lions (rain & storms forecasted for brissy tomorrow) into port 1-39 and then GC17 with a 50pt head start.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Ive taken the same, but reasoning is masten a bit of a downhill skier, so should do well against melbourne, also last year this was a 50:50 proposition so odds of 2.15 on a 50:50 is a good deal

good i respect your opinion

im just sweating a bit now as i have this multi on

juventus to beat parma 1.33
freo to beat gold coast 1.10
murphy over gibbs in dt 1.80
stanton over goddard in dt 1.85
pendlebury over beams in dt 1.75
priddis over masted in dt 1.80

 

[Anzac16]

heppells games against hawks in dreamteam score have been 91, 84, 81, not that unpredictable.

Which I obviously looked at. He's been playing more midfield and he looked amazing last week albeit against a pretty poor North side. Unfortunately he played more behind the ball last night. I felt that his average this year will sit around 105 so it was a pretty solid bet for me. Will take a couple of rounds to figure out exactly what roles players are playing consistently this year though.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Which I obviously looked at. He's been playing more midfield and he looked amazing last week albeit against a pretty poor North side. Unfortunately he played more behind the ball last night. I felt that his average this year will sit around 105 so it was a pretty solid bet for me. Will take a couple of rounds to figure out exactly what roles players are playing consistently this year though.

only scored over that mark in 18 out of 72 games in his career though. Based on history the bet was under, but i agree, always trust your gut and if your gut is saying this year will be a breakout year then go for it.

 

[Anzac16]

only scored over that mark in 18 out of 72 games in his career though. Based on history the bet was under, but i agree, always trust your gut and if your gut is saying this year will be a breakout year then go for it.

I agree. He's still young and consistency is going to be an issue. Still felt that it was worth the risk. When the started to get up and about in the third quarter he racked them up. Just the second and 4th quarters that let him down.

Anyway, still really in my first proper year of betting so plenty to learn.

 

[Anzac16]

If anyone plays DT and has a Luxbet account, www.aflfantasypunt.com.au has two free games this weekend with $500 in prizes. Usually $10 entry fee. Some easy cash to be made from the Showdown today and North vs Dogs game tomorrow.

 

[Atley]

Did any of you guys find a Riewoldt total points DT bet?

 

[laam]

Did any of you guys find a Riewoldt total points DT bet?

B365 had his line at 95.5 @ 1.87 took overs

 

[Atley]

B365 had his line at 95.5 @ 1.87 took overs

Would of been all over that too

 

[laam]

1.5u port @ 1.72 with sportsbet refund offer

 

[Willzzz]

1U - Port Adelaide SU @ $1.72 (Sportsbet)
0.5U - Port Adelaide -2.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet)

Was actually thinking the Crows may upset and looking for $2.50+.
No way in my mind the line should be -2.5 and with the Sportsbet promo I like the $1.72 too.