AFL Prediction Models - Round 10

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Roby said:
The holes are filled with bottomless pits of money.

How come you don't include the betting market as another model?

Why don't you compare models vs the market as well?

Money talks.
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I'm curious as to how you're not being shut down by the bookies Roby if you're making bottomless pits of money. I'll grant you that your tips look to be quite successful, but I can't square the circle as why they choose to keep your account/s open or at least severely capped.
 

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chunkychicken said:
Agreed and it would need to be consistent to do so. I'll probably do it retrospectively at the end of the season with speculative lines when I do my conclusion. As far as time goes, I simply don't have enough of it to track the markets.

From what I've found through the models is that Massey releases their predictions by the end of the weekend or Monday, FootyMaths does it Wednesday/Thursday, Power Rankings anywhere from Tuesday to Friday, usually Thursday, Squiggles Tuesday/Wednesday and FootyForecaster is Monday/Tuesday.

Best time to take lines would have to be Friday morning otherwise I need to track lines from each bookie that I track at the times the tips are released - urgh.
Click to expand...

Yes, please. This would be very interesting.
 
Well, well, well.

Another thread where the OP and Roby throw monkey poo at each other.

We all know Roby is just trolling the s**t out of us.

The OP trolls Roby on his thread.

Then Roby trolls the OP on this thread.

I think there is a glitch in the matrix.

* it, can I have another red pill Mobeius?
 
DrMike said:
chunkychicken you need to create an "average" to see if their powers combined create a super power squiggly math rankings
Click to expand...
What, you mean like this?
latest


FootyMaths I've got your tips!
Roby still waiting for yours...
 
AlibiMonday said:
I'm curious as to how you're not being shut down by the bookies Roby if you're making bottomless pits of money. I'll grant you that your tips look to be quite successful, but I can't square the circle as why they choose to keep your account/s open or at least severely capped.
Click to expand...

After winning $1644 last round Sportsbet got the shits with me and are now restricting me to $40 or $50 a bet. Have had to switch to betting accounts created in my mates name now. Luxbet restricted my new account in week 2. Bookies have no patience for winning they only want losers in their books. Funny thing is, I've won the most money on the NFL and despite a couple of 7k winning days on Bet365 I wasn't restricted. The bookies seem to restrict or ban quickly on AFL more than anything perhaps because it's a smaller market? There's probably a lot more money coming in from the NFL so that they can take bigger losses as they're getting international bets and millions from American gamblers whereas the market is much smaller in Australia so the margins are smaller. Just my theory anyway.
 
Great thread CC, well done. Cutting through the crap and ambiguity very nicely.
 
Roo Lives Again said:
After winning $1644 last round Sportsbet got the shits with me and are now restricting me to $40 or $50 a bet. Have had to switch to betting accounts created in my mates name now. Luxbet restricted my new account in week 2. Bookies have no patience for winning they only want losers in their books. Funny thing is, I've won the most money on the NFL and despite a couple of 7k winning days on Bet365 I wasn't restricted. The bookies seem to restrict or ban quickly on AFL more than anything perhaps because it's a smaller market? There's probably a lot more money coming in from the NFL so that they can take bigger losses as they're getting international bets and millions from American gamblers whereas the market is much smaller in Australia so the margins are smaller. Just my theory anyway.
Click to expand...

Doesn't the AFL have an agreement with agencies that they take a small % of winnings? I think I read that somewhere a few years back. Why don't you look at international bookies and use them instead? You could probably make good money using the UK bookies.
 
Round 4

Sure tip of the round...
Richmond - They should comfortably beat any line under 20 points, so consider it worth putting a dime or two on. All models are tipping a win (Power Rankings has tipped the upset) and by a comfortable 5-6 goal margin as well.

Good value tip of the round...
Sydney - 8~9 points. The models haven't been kind to the Swans on their away travels, tipping against them when they traveled to Port Adelaide, but were shocked when they posted up a thumping 8 goal win. Fremantle and Sydney both crushed their opponents for 3 quarters last weekend, saving themselves for this titanic clash...

Difficult tip of the round...
North vs Geelong - the models are split but they're confident that it'll be a good game, each tipping less than 2 goals each way. North to win -8~9 points might be worth a several thruppence

Summary...
The tips and margins are all in for Round 4! It appears as though the models have figured Richmond out, all tipping them to win, except for Power Rankings which has tipped the upset. The other 4 models have tipped Richmond by an average of 36 points, with only 4 points difference in all of their tips. That's a confident tip and worth taking the lines up.

St Kilda on the other hand has been abandoned, but the models are unsure about Carlton at this stage. There variance indicates that the models are luke-warm on Carlton, but could figure them out shortly.

The models are just as positive about an Essendon win as they are a Richmond win, tipping them across the board to win by 15 points. There's only 5 points difference in the lowest and highest tip, so beating the line looks like it could be worth a punt.

The GWS/GCS game is predicted to be tight and tough with 2 models predicting 8 points. It's a 4-1 tip in favour of GWS and rightfully so since GCS have their best players out injured and Rocket Eade conceding he doesn't care about results.

The models have tipped Hawthorn across the board, but are unsure about them, or Port Adelaide. One thing they all agree on is that the game is going to be less than 2 goals either way.

The models have done Sydney no favours, except for Footy Forecaster. There's going to be 4 geniuses or 1 genius. The models deserted Sydney when they smashed Port Adelaide 2 weeks ago...

Don't bother putting any money on Brisbane to get a win against West Coast. Most will tip the Eagles and the models are all tipping a 4 goal win to the home side. Brisbane will need some reversal of form to knock off the Eagles on their home ground.

The Geelong vs North game has been the hardest for the models to pick. It's 3-2 in favour of North, but a wise, betting man, would think well about putting money on North to beat the line. The Jeckyl and Hyde team vs the Old Faithful's - who will win this battle for the top 8?

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide... There has been no faith at all from the models, picking 5-0 against the dogs by at least 3 goals. It's on their home stretch, but they are still without key players and it could mean the difference between a win and a loss.

*AFL Power Rankings has not provided margins for round 4

Friday:
Richmond (5th) vs Melbourne (12th)
Power Rankings: Melbourne
Squiggles: Richmond by 36
Massey Ratings: Richmond by 38
Footy Forecaster: Richmond by 34
FootyMaths Blog: Richmond by 36

Saturday:
St Kilda (14th) vs Carlton (17th)
Power Rankings: Carlton
Squiggles: Carlton by 21
Massey Ratings: Carlton by 10
Footy Forecaster: Carlton by 23
FootyMaths Blog: Carlton by 35

Essendon (8th) vs Collingwood (6th)
Power Rankings: Essendon
Squiggles: Essendon by 15
Massey Ratings: Essendon by 16
Footy Forecaster: Essendon by 18
FootyMaths Blog: Essendon by 13

GWS (7th) vs GCS (16th)
Power Rankings: GWS
Squiggles: GWS by 21
Massey Ratings: GWS by 8
Footy Forecaster: GWS by 8
FootyMaths Blog: GCS by 6

Port Adelaide (13th) vs Hawthorn (4th)
the-cup.png

Power Rankings: Hawthorn
Squiggles: Hawthorn by 2
Massey Ratings: Hawthorn by 9
Footy Forecaster: Hawthorn by 18
FootyMaths Blog: Hawthorn by 3

Fremantle (3rd) vs Sydney (2nd)
Power Rankings: Fremantle
Squiggles: Fremantle by 5
Massey Ratings: Fremantle by 1
Footy Forecaster: Sydney by 3
FootyMaths Blog: Fremantle by 6

Sunday:
Brisbane (18th) vs West Coast (10th)
Power Rankings: West Coast
Squiggles: West Coast by 27
Massey Ratings: West Coast by 23
Footy Forecaster: West Coast by 46
FootyMaths Blog: West Coast by 27

Geelong (15th) vs North Melbourne (11th)
Power Rankings: North Melbourne
Squiggles: Geelong by 2
Massey Ratings: Geelong by 6
Footy Forecaster: North by 6
FootyMaths Blog: Geelong by 8

Western Bulldogs (9th) vs Adelaide (1st)
Power Rankings: Adelaide
Squiggles: Adelaide by 22
Massey Ratings: Adelaide by 19
Footy Forecaster: Adelaide by 28
FootyMaths Blog: Adelaide by 22
 

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chunkychicken said:
Round 4

Sure tip of the round...
Richmond - They should comfortably beat any line under 20 points, so consider it worth putting a dime or two on. All models are tipping a win (Power Rankings has tipped the upset) and by a comfortable 5-6 goal margin as well.
Click to expand...

Sure tip? Hmmm.. This thread thing isn't as easy as it looks.

Just to help a old pal my contribution to this thread for the week:

Sure Tip
Adelaide on the line. Adelaide are fit and firing. Looking like superstars they have the Glenelg Gazillionaire and the Big Tex should help the Crows cover the line before half-time against the injured Doggies.
 
Roby said:
Sure tip? Hmmm.. This thread thing isn't as easy as it looks.

Just to help a old pal my contribution to this thread for the week:

Sure Tip
Adelaide on the line. Adelaide are fit and firing. Looking like superstars they have the Glenelg Gazillionaire and the Big Tex should help the Crows cover the line before half-time against the injured Doggies.
Click to expand...

Mine are based off the consensus of the models :p They picked Richmond by 6 goals across the board, but Melbourne won by 5,
 
chunkychicken said:
Mine are based off the consensus of the models :p They picked Richmond by 6 goals across the board, but Melbourne won by 5,
Click to expand...
The consensus of the models? One model picked Melbourne. There wasn't a consesus.

Yet you have other games such as WCE v BL where there a actually was a CONSESUS and all models picked WCE comfortably.

Your anti Roby agenda is boring.
 
doppleganger said:
The consensus of the models? One model picked Melbourne. There wasn't a consesus.

Yet you have other games such as WCE v BL where there a actually was a CONSESUS and all models picked WCE comfortably.

Your anti Roby agenda is boring.
Click to expand...

It' isn't anti-Roby at all, his model picked the upset whereas the other 4 had Tigers winning by at least 5 goals, with a 6 goal average. I can't use the PR margins to formulate averages because it would negatively impact adding '0' to every sum. Roby's model usually tips 1 upset per week and it comes up on average about 50% of the time. He's 3/4 this season so far (I believe) but last season wasn't so good.
 
chunkychicken said:
It' isn't anti-Roby at all, his model picked the upset whereas the other 4 had Tigers winning by at least 5 goals, with a 6 goal average. I can't use the PR margins to formulate averages because it would negatively impact adding '0' to every sum. Roby's model usually tips 1 upset per week and it comes up on average about 50% of the time. He's 3/4 this season so far (I believe) but last season wasn't so good.
Click to expand...
Your sure bet was a game where the models didn't even agree! :drunk:

You think you are strong like the corn plant, yet the bean vine is already choking you!
 
chunkychicken said:
Round 4

Sure tip of the round...
Richmond - They should comfortably beat any line under 20 points, so consider it worth putting a dime or two on. All models are tipping a win (Power Rankings has tipped the upset) and by a comfortable 5-6 goal margin as well.

Good value tip of the round...
Sydney - 8~9 points. The models haven't been kind to the Swans on their away travels, tipping against them when they traveled to Port Adelaide, but were shocked when they posted up a thumping 8 goal win. Fremantle and Sydney both crushed their opponents for 3 quarters last weekend, saving themselves for this titanic clash...

Difficult tip of the round...
North vs Geelong - the models are split but they're confident that it'll be a good game, each tipping less than 2 goals each way. North to win -8~9 points might be worth a several thruppence

Summary...
The tips and margins are all in for Round 4! It appears as though the models have figured Richmond out, all tipping them to win, except for Power Rankings which has tipped the upset. The other 4 models have tipped Richmond by an average of 36 points, with only 4 points difference in all of their tips. That's a confident tip and worth taking the lines up.

St Kilda on the other hand has been abandoned, but the models are unsure about Carlton at this stage. There variance indicates that the models are luke-warm on Carlton, but could figure them out shortly.

The models are just as positive about an Essendon win as they are a Richmond win, tipping them across the board to win by 15 points. There's only 5 points difference in the lowest and highest tip, so beating the line looks like it could be worth a punt.

The GWS/GCS game is predicted to be tight and tough with 2 models predicting 8 points. It's a 4-1 tip in favour of GWS and rightfully so since GCS have their best players out injured and Rocket Eade conceding he doesn't care about results.

The models have tipped Hawthorn across the board, but are unsure about them, or Port Adelaide. One thing they all agree on is that the game is going to be less than 2 goals either way.

The models have done Sydney no favours, except for Footy Forecaster. There's going to be 4 geniuses or 1 genius. The models deserted Sydney when they smashed Port Adelaide 2 weeks ago...

Don't bother putting any money on Brisbane to get a win against West Coast. Most will tip the Eagles and the models are all tipping a 4 goal win to the home side. Brisbane will need some reversal of form to knock off the Eagles on their home ground.

The Geelong vs North game has been the hardest for the models to pick. It's 3-2 in favour of North, but a wise, betting man, would think well about putting money on North to beat the line. The Jeckyl and Hyde team vs the Old Faithful's - who will win this battle for the top 8?

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide... There has been no faith at all from the models, picking 5-0 against the dogs by at least 3 goals. It's on their home stretch, but they are still without key players and it could mean the difference between a win and a loss.

*AFL Power Rankings has not provided margins for round 4

Friday:
Richmond (5th) vs Melbourne (12th)
Power Rankings: Melbourne
Squiggles: Richmond by 36
Massey Ratings: Richmond by 38
Footy Forecaster: Richmond by 34
FootyMaths Blog: Richmond by 36

Saturday:
St Kilda (14th) vs Carlton (17th)
Power Rankings: Carlton
Squiggles: Carlton by 21
Massey Ratings: Carlton by 10
Footy Forecaster: Carlton by 23
FootyMaths Blog: Carlton by 35

Essendon (8th) vs Collingwood (6th)
Power Rankings: Essendon
Squiggles: Essendon by 15
Massey Ratings: Essendon by 16
Footy Forecaster: Essendon by 18
FootyMaths Blog: Essendon by 13

GWS (7th) vs GCS (16th)
Power Rankings: GWS
Squiggles: GWS by 21
Massey Ratings: GWS by 8
Footy Forecaster: GWS by 8
FootyMaths Blog: GCS by 6

Port Adelaide (13th) vs Hawthorn (4th)
the-cup.png

Power Rankings: Hawthorn
Squiggles: Hawthorn by 2
Massey Ratings: Hawthorn by 9
Footy Forecaster: Hawthorn by 18
FootyMaths Blog: Hawthorn by 3

Fremantle (3rd) vs Sydney (2nd)
Power Rankings: Fremantle
Squiggles: Fremantle by 5
Massey Ratings: Fremantle by 1
Footy Forecaster: Sydney by 3
FootyMaths Blog: Fremantle by 6

Sunday:
Brisbane (18th) vs West Coast (10th)
Power Rankings: West Coast
Squiggles: West Coast by 27
Massey Ratings: West Coast by 23
Footy Forecaster: West Coast by 46
FootyMaths Blog: West Coast by 27

Geelong (15th) vs North Melbourne (11th)
Power Rankings: North Melbourne
Squiggles: Geelong by 2
Massey Ratings: Geelong by 6
Footy Forecaster: North by 6
FootyMaths Blog: Geelong by 8

Western Bulldogs (9th) vs Adelaide (1st)
Power Rankings: Adelaide
Squiggles: Adelaide by 22
Massey Ratings: Adelaide by 19
Footy Forecaster: Adelaide by 28
FootyMaths Blog: Adelaide by 22
Click to expand...
I don't swim in the BF pool very often, but I like this comparative analysis. You should get your own blog for this.
 
Heavily favoured Tigers and Dons haven't come through for the models. Only Power Rankings picked Melbourne to win and also to beat the line as well., which they did so comprehensively. Heavily favoured Carlton came through with an even larger margin than estimated and GWS are on track to record their 3rd win of the season. They were tipped to win by less than 2 goals, but currently lead by 4 goals at half time.

Of the big games from last night, only the warmly favoured Fremantle came up and Hawthorn almost stole it in the last quarter. Both Sydney and Hawthorn were down by 8+ goals, so they deserved to lose their games.
 
chunkychicken said:
Heavily favoured Tigers and Dons haven't come through for the models. Only Power Rankings picked Melbourne to win and also to beat the line as well., which they did so comprehensively. Heavily favoured Carlton came through with an even larger margin than estimated and GWS are on track to record their 3rd win of the season. They were tipped to win by less than 2 goals, but currently lead by 4 goals at half time.

Of the big games from last night, only the warmly favoured Fremantle came up and Hawthorn almost stole it in the last quarter. Both Sydney and Hawthorn were down by 8+ goals, so they deserved to lose their games.
Click to expand...
But weren't Sydney your good value tip of the round? Aren't the models just brilliant, until they tip against your team, in which case they're not being "kind"? You need to start using your other eye.
 
Anoncomment said:
But weren't Sydney your good value tip of the round? Aren't the models just brilliant, until they tip against your team, in which case they're not being "kind"? You need to start using your other eye.
Click to expand...

You mean the Hawks vs Power game where the models favoured Hawks, yet they didn't even show up in the first half? Revisionism is always great with the power of hindsight.

Coon2Hindsight10.png


Consider that this round is playing out like the 2nd round with the models tipping at around 50%. My tips aren't based off of my bias, they're based off of what the models predicted. Swans came back to 3 points down and while I missed the game, the general feedback on the board is that they panicked and threw it away.

Models predicted (except Roby, but he tipped the upset as he does 1 per week) Richmond by 5+ goals, they lose by 6. Models predicted Hawks to win by 2 goals, they lose by 2. Models (except Footy Forecaster) tipped Fremantle by a goal or less, they win by 2 goals. Models favoured Essendon, they lose by 3 goals.
 
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