Preview AFL Round 1 - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, Monday April 6 3.20PM

[steady2]

So my question to you is: Gut feeling, how does this weather forecast sit with you?

Three years ago it was raining buckets and Hawkins was taking pack marks and we won. So I don't see a problem with the wet, in fact we have been known as wet weather team for a long time now.

 

[cryptor]

I've always felt that the wind effects the Hawks more than the rain does. If it's raining I don't think either team will really mind that much but if there is a strong, swirly wind around it could help us in defending your kicking game.

When it's all said and done the better team on the day will win regardless of the conditions.

The question that I can't answer is how are Hawthorns' fitness levels right at the moment? Alot of the Geelong players have played alot of minutes through the NAB cup and we look to be well prepared physically for the game. If it rains there's no doubt that it will become more a game of attrition and could favour the team that is in better shape physically. Which team that is, I'm not sure.

The wind will effect kicking more than the wet, on that I agree. Around the ground at the MCG it shouldn't be particularly bad as long as the players keep the ball relatively low. Goal kicking at a distance is where the wind will be a killer. Hawthorn I believe were league leaders for marks inside 50 from kicks inside 50 or something like that. They tend to look for the better, closer option as a rule already. Geelong on the other hand have perfected the side-on kicking style so any shot from within 30m will be a good chance.

As for our fitness levels, it appears many players have slimmed a little and are looking a bit leaner this season. Much like Jordan Lewis did over last pre-season, and Brian Lake the one before that. Hodge has been the most drastic change from what I've seen. Fittest I've seen him in years. From memory Hawks were in the top 3 (with Port and North) for final quarter wins last year and with how fortunate we've been with a lack of off-season injuries I'd be expect us to be as fit or fitter once again. I agree with you in part about fitness being a big factor. I don't believe it will be who can run harder or longer but who will run smarter that gets on top with fitness.

 

[cryptor]

The key forwards were important because your key defenders were, frankly, terrible. Schoenmakers and Gibson were fine if Gibson could help Clangers out but with 2 good key forwards Schoenmakers was exposed and Gibson's not the best 1 on 1 defender either. Cheney was the same sort of story. But we won't be doing that against Lake and Frawley with Gibson drifting around.

I think the area we can beat you is in 1 on 1 contested footy since a lot of your guys just aren't strong there. Great kicks, great runners but more athletic than strong. The problem with turning it into a 1 on 1 game is that if you guys get on top and our defence gets caught out since we don't have spare men you could pile on a score in a short period.

Assuming that's true, how do you think Geelong will force it into that 1 on 1 style? Given so much of the Hawks strength lies in a team structure it's going to be difficult to force us to play otherwise.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Assuming that's true, how do you think Geelong will force it into that 1 on 1 style? Given so much of the Hawks strength lies in a team structure it's going to be difficult to force us to play otherwise.

Buggered if I know. I just know that if guys like Smith, Hill, Gunston, Bruest, Suckling, etc get the ball in close under pressure they look like poor to average AFL players. Get them the ball in space and they'll destroy you. It might be a case of putting lots of numbers around the ball and trying to force stoppages and a lot of kicking long to our big forwards. Not sure it'll work though.

 

[cryptor]

As soon as I read your comments (bolded), a game 3 years ago vs Brisbane, where it pelted down all night, sprang to mind. Hawkins kicked 6.0 and collected 3 Brownlow points.

Yeah, it was a long time ago but I don't think the weather should prevent him from taking contested marks on Monday. Hopefully he can also take his chances with the ground balls, as well. Haven't watched Clark a lot so have no idea how he goes in the wet.

I recall a game from years ago (2011 I think) where it absolutely bucketed down sideways at the G where the Hawks played Richmond. Buddy was clunking marks and kicking goals with a water logged footy from 50m out. Sometimes the cream just rises above everything else. Could happen again.

 

[cryptor]

Buggered if I know. I just know that if guys like Smith, Hill, Gunston, Bruest, Suckling, etc get the ball in close under pressure they look like poor to average AFL players. Get them the ball in space and they'll destroy you. It might be a case of putting lots of numbers around the ball and trying to force stoppages and a lot of kicking long to our big forwards. Not sure it'll work though.

Breust thrives under pressure. Probably gets caught a bit trying to fend off one too many players on occasion however.

Crowding the ball and trying to force a stoppage would be playing into Hawthorn's hands imo. As you may be aware the Hawks like to utilise tap-ons to advantage rather than trying to take possession and getting pinged for HTB or getting stoppages. If it can get tapped on past the crowd of Geelong players and put into the hands of (funnily enough) one of the players you've mentioned above then it's likely going to end up in a scoring shot.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I recall a game from years ago (2011 I think) where it absolutely bucketed down sideways at the G where the Hawks played Richmond. Buddy was clunking marks and kicking goals with a water logged footy from 50m out. Sometimes the cream just rises above everything else. Could happen again.

Then there are days where there's a bit of dew and the boys are slipping all over the place and can't take a ball cleanly all night. We've had a few of those in recent years. I suspect the Hawks have had far less bad days at the office like that, though.

 

[BlightysCats]

Breust thrives under pressure. Probably gets caught a bit trying to fend off one too many players on occasion however.

Crowding the ball and trying to force a stoppage would be playing into Hawthorn's hands imo. As you may be aware the Hawks like to utilise tap-ons to advantage rather than trying to take possession and getting pinged for HTB or getting stoppages. If it can get tapped on past the crowd of Geelong players and put into the hands of (funnily enough) one of the players you've mentioned above then it's likely going to end up in a scoring shot.

I've always wondered why teams don't try to build a zone that rings the contest/stoppage when playing Hawthorn to stop that next short kick or handball that gets you guys out, anyway prob easier said than done. Still I'd like to see it tried rather than crowding the contest which as you said tends to play in to the Hawks hands.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I've always wondered why teams don't try to build a zone that rings the contest/stoppage when playing Hawthorn to stop that next short kick or handball that gets you guys out, anyway prob easier said than done. Still I'd like to see it tried rather than crowding the contest which as you said tends to play in to the Hawks hands.

crowding the contest makes it harder in our forward line especially, with the absence of good crumbers.

 

[BlightysCats]

Then there are days where there's a bit of dew and the boys are slipping all over the place and can't take a ball cleanly all night. We've had a few of those in recent years. I suspect the Hawks have had far less bad days at the office like that, though.

The BOM is only predicting a 30% chance there will be a shower so I'd hardly think the game will be played in the wet. It'll be dry at worst throughout so all this talk about how either team plays in the wet is pretty irrelevant.

 

[BlightysCats]

The BOM is only predicting a 30% chance there will be a shower so I'd hardly think the game will be played in the wet. It'll be dry at worst for the greater part of the game so all this talk about how either team plays in the wet is pretty irrelevant.

 

[Teriyakicat]

The BOM is only predicting a 30% chance there will be a shower so I'd hardly think the game will be played in the wet. It'll be dry at worst throughout so all this talk about how either team plays in the wet is pretty irrelevant.

If wet weather is going to bother us or make us 'play better', there is something wrong with our players.
I think it's just pre-game nerves on the supporters' part (including me) and we're all clutching at straws that we think might give us an edge, in order to placate ourselves

 

[Lana]

Enough pessimism, its time for action.

• 8 goals between Clark and Hawkins
• Bartel and Kelly to be influential in the middle
• Simpson to play his best game for the club
• Mackie to be close to BOG with 5 I50s and a goal.

Cats by 25 points

Stop worrying about weather, the games not in Townsvile

 

[cryptor]

I've always wondered why teams don't try to build a zone that rings the contest/stoppage when playing Hawthorn to stop that next short kick or handball that gets you guys out, anyway prob easier said than done. Still I'd like to see it tried rather than crowding the contest which as you said tends to play in to the Hawks hands.

Hypothetically if a team were to try it then they would need a few players sitting about 20m off the ball ready for it. Obviously this would be easier to do along the boundary where you only need to have half as many players. It's still a lot of players to have in one area though. Very risky if it can get free.

Jimmy Bartel has been doing it against us for years in the forward line. Always seems to be positioned perfectly in the goal square to cut off the hurried snap from a contest that tends to be good for a goal or two a game. Funnily enough that tends to be the difference in a lot of our games.

 

[dazbroncos]

We can always rely on krock at least!

Great source of information. I use it a lot.

Go Catters

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Is Caddy fit and ready to break out?? I wanna take a risk and grab him in SC any thoughts?

Honestly, I think Guthrie is a better bet right now. But I think they'll both improve significantly this season. So to answer your question, yes!

 

[dazbroncos]

Assuming that's true, how do you think Geelong will force it into that 1 on 1 style? Given so much of the Hawks strength lies in a team structure it's going to be difficult to force us to play otherwise.

You play well as a group of defenders, as do we.

If we sit it on our KPF heads in close proximity to each all the time you will be very effective. However, if we spread the entries around and leave Hawkins and Clark as one out then its accountability 101. Not easy to do especially if your mids press back and fill the gaps - but if we get quick ball movement and get them leading to space. We have 2 very good KPF's at that point.

Go Catters

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Damn! Trust you to pick that up, StC
Our forward stocks have been decimated, haven't they?
Varcoe, Burbury, McCarthy- all gone
Where is Smedts at?

I don't think our forward line looks too bad this year with Lang and Cockatoo rotating through there along with Stokes, Mots, Caddy, Bartel, Johnson etc. The additions of Clark and Stanley will no doubt help aswell.

And yes, personally I'd like to see Smedts played forward where he has shown the most potential as an AFL player but at least for now the MC look set to persist with him down back, so we can only hope that it works out for him.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I don't think our forward line looks too bad this year with Lang and Cockatoo rotating through there along with Stokes, Mots, Caddy, Bartel, Johnson etc. The additions of Clark and Stanley will no doubt help aswell.

And yes, personally I'd like to see Smedts played forward where he has shown the most potential as an AFL player but at least for now the MC look set to persist with him down back, so we can only hope that it works out for him.

There are some very good marking targets in amongst that lot, Stan. I've always loved watching Stokes take contested marks in front of taller players, ditto Jimmy and Stevie J. Caddys's no slouch and anyone who isn't strong in that area will just have to create space to take uncontested marks or be able to crumb some goals in order to add value to our forward line. I think that, if we don't want to go with Kersten or Walker as the third tall, we need to keep Jimmy in there to add marking strength, as well as a good crumber. It will depend on how much Mots/Cockatoo give us further upfield as to whether they are maybe rested in a pocket and used as crumbers. I would think we need their run too much to tie them up in a corner and leave them there, even if it's only for 5 minutes.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Stan The Caddy
I think we are all in agreement on Billie- in 2013, he kicked 10 goals in his first 7 games. It seems a waste of a talent to have a player with good attacking skills and who knows how to slot a quick goal sitting down the other area of the ground- it just seems like madness to me. I'm assuming he was put into defence to plug the gaps and help stop the ball as it came burning out of our F50 but I don't think the MC found the right combination of players to staunch the flow. Varcoe had a bit more success but Billie just wasn't the right player for that job. Couldn't see any improvement over the course of the season but then I might not be looking at the right indicators. And there was the small fact of him returning before he was fit....

 

[BlightysCats]

Hypothetically if a team were to try it then they would need a few players sitting about 20m off the ball ready for it. Obviously this would be easier to do along the boundary where you only need to have half as many players. It's still a lot of players to have in one area though. Very risky if it can get free.

Jimmy Bartel has been doing it against us for years in the forward line. Always seems to be positioned perfectly in the goal square to cut off the hurried snap from a contest that tends to be good for a goal or two a game. Funnily enough that tends to be the difference in a lot of our games.

Yeah that's exactly what I was thinking about a ring with everyone standing 15 to 20 meters outside the contested area, you'd probably need 10 players in it minimum so you're right about if the ball gets through there'd be trouble.

 

[cryptor]

You play well as a group of defenders, as do we.

If we sit it on our KPF heads in close proximity to each all the time you will be very effective. However, if we spread the entries around and leave Hawkins and Clark as one out then its accountability 101. Not easy to do especially if your mids press back and fill the gaps - but if we get quick ball movement and get them leading to space. We have 2 very good KPF's at that point.

Go Catters

Definitely. Both teams defensive groups lap up the high ball, especially if it's been moved up the ground slow enough for structures to be formed. That's where I think at the end of the day it always comes down to which midfield group gets the ascendancy. Whether it's the Hawks getting their quick link-up kicking game going or the Cats with their overlapping handball run. Get the ball in quick and low to your leading forwards and then it's just a matter of making the most of those chances in front of goal.

Though in terms of making it a 1-on-1 contested game, I think that was made in reference to the entire field of play, not just in the scoring zones. At least that's how I took it.

 

[Kardinia Pork]

Enough pessimism, its time for action.

• 8 goals between Clark and Hawkins
• Bartel and Kelly to be influential in the middle
• Simpson to play his best game for the club
• Mackie to be close to BOG with 5 I50s and a goal.

Cats by 25 points

That would do me quite nicely

 

[mac_cat]

There are some very good marking targets in amongst that lot, Stan. I've always loved watching Stokes take contested marks in front of taller players, ditto Jimmy and Stevie J. Caddys's no slouch and anyone who isn't strong in that area will just have to create space to take uncontested marks or be able to crumb some goals in order to add value to our forward line. I think that, if we don't want to go with Kersten or Walker as the third tall, we need to keep Jimmy in there to add marking strength, as well as a good crumber. It will depend on how much Mots/Cockatoo give us further upfield as to whether they are maybe rested in a pocket and used as crumbers. I would think we need their run too much to tie them up in a corner and leave them there, even if it's only for 5 minutes.

Hah, that's funny Teri, I've always hated seeing Stokes going for marks in the forward line. In my memory, he usually has two large defenders who spoil the mark and the opposition gain possession. I always wonder where our tall forwards are who should be going for those marks, and why Stokes isn't waiting at their feet for the crumbs!

 

[Partridge]

Hah, that's funny Teri, I've always hated seeing Stokes going for marks in the forward line. In my memory, he usually has two large defenders who spoil the mark and the opposition gain possession. I always wonder where our tall forwards are who should be going for those marks, and why Stokes isn't waiting at their feet for the crumbs!

Another good reason to keep him as the superb link up midfielder between the 50m lines that he's been the last 2 seasons.