AFL round 3

[yamahamoto]

Odds are out.

Carlton 1.80 vs 2.00 Collingwood

Richmond 1.30 vs 3.45 Melbourne

Port Adelaide 2.55 vs 1.50 Sydney

Fremantle 1.10 vs 6.50 Brisbane

Gold Coast 9.00 vs 1.05 Essendon

Western Bulldogs 2.55 vs 1.50 St KIlda

GWS 21.00 vs (suspended) West Coast (the line would be 110pts )

Hawthorn 1.18 vs 4.75 Adelaide

North Melbourne 5.00 vs 1.16 Geelong


They got the Freo game spot on ...i was hoping for Freo at 1.15. Good luck to everyone

 

[Byejune]

Looks like some good value round 3.

Gut feelings:

Pies h2h
Dees line
Port line
Dogs line
Roos line

Has a team ever opened at suspended odds?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Odds are out.

Carlton 1.80 vs 2.00 Collingwood

Richmond 1.30 vs 3.45 Melbourne

Port Adelaide 2.55 vs 1.50 Sydney

Fremantle 1.10 vs 6.50 Brisbane

Gold Coast 9.00 vs 1.05 Essendon

Western Bulldogs 2.55 vs 1.50 St KIlda

GWS 21.00 vs (suspended) West Coast (the line would be 110pts )

Hawthorn 1.18 vs 4.75 Adelaide

North Melbourne 5.00 vs 1.16 Geelong


They got the Freo game spot on ...i was hoping for Freo at 1.15. Good luck to everyone

I thought Freo and Hawthorn might be a little bit more generous than that. Nothing too exciting although Collingwood look good at $2. I want to see the blues beat a good team before getting carried away with them.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Looks like some good value round 3.

Gut feelings:

Pies h2h
Dees line
Port line
Dogs line
Roos line

Was thinking something similar

 

[Butler]

Will probably take the WC line if it's at -110. Even if we rest players we have good depth and they will come out playing hard to try and keep their spots. GWS don't chip the ball around to try and get through the press the just bomb it long which suits WC. This could be a thumping.

 

[anabac]

Looks like some good value round 3.

Gut feelings:

Pies h2h
Dees line
Port line
Dogs line
Roos line

Has a team ever opened at suspended odds?

I'll probably take port line into dogs line.

Pies and blues is a coin flip for mine. Would not put a dollar on Melbourne the way they are traveling either, and kangas can't be trusted against top 4 sides. I hope it's different this year but I wouldn't bank on it just yet.

 

[anabac]

This could be a thumping.

You reckon?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Just don't break Geelong's record

 

[Butler]

You reckon?

I'm not talking a 100 point thumping. I'm thinking much bigger. Geelongs record in danger type thumping

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Will probably take the WC line if it's at -110. Even if we rest players we have good depth and they will come out playing hard to try and keep their spots. GWS don't chip the ball around to try and get through the press the just bomb it long which suits WC. This could be a thumping.

If the game was in WA, no problems with that.

An away game to bet on winning a game of that margin does require a few things to go right.

Sheeds did flood against the Swans and I expect the same against the Eagles.

Requires the Eagles to lead and win by about 5 goals every qtr.

 

[bballscout]

Not sure of the lines but with a general idea what id take:

Strong play on suns line, key additions coming in such as bock and stanley with bombers a few injury woes. Not saying they win but should cover what will be a generous margin.

Strong bet on Eagles line, giants are vfl standard and young, eagles by plenty.

Crows line- underrated and even if they lose, shouldnt be belted here.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

What I like is Carlton H2H, Richmond H2H , Sydney H2H and Brisbane at what will be a pretty generous line against Freo considering the prices H2H. Not sure about Saints/Bulldogs. Will probably not touch Geelong/ North line, Ess/GC line or GWS/Eagles line. I think Hawks will fix up the Crows by a fair bit.

 

[KardiniaPark]

If the game was in WA, no problems with that.

An away game to bet on winning a game of that margin does require a few things to go right.

Sheeds did flood against the Swans and I expect the same against the Eagles.

Requires the Eagles to lead and win by about 5 goals every qtr.

I'm not sure it matters with the Eagles. Travel isn't an issue they do it every two weeks. They are just so brutal in the way they put teams away, they have every chance to be 90-100 up at halftime. I only saw bits and pieces of the GWS game but I thought they did have some back there? With the Eagles big powerful key forwards like Kennedy, Darling & Lynch and the tackling pressure that those big guys apply I think their defence will be deflated mentally and physically pretty early on.

If the weather is ok and there isnt a crazy swirly wind around that West Coast can head somewhere towards the 250 mark. I think someone will break it this year against GWS and WC are probably the team with the best chance of doing it.

 

[twarby]

how can anyone like Richmond at 1.30

 

[KardiniaPark]

how can anyone like Richmond at 1.30

HAHA not sure, that scares me!

 

[Keystone agony]

They're playing Melbourne. Albeit Melbourne dont mind backing themselves against Richmond. Also Richmond need a win and need a good win, they have had 2 losses they will be hungry for success.

Any chance KP and Twarby will actually put any bets on the line or themselves on the line, than just beating down on others?

 

[Donkson]

has a line ever actually closed at over 100?

even geelong/gold coast last year I think the line ended up at like 89.5 or something.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

how can anyone like Richmond at 1.30

What price would you suggest they be against Melbourne before we start liking them ?

Also have you watched Melbourne play this year ?

 

[Lensen]

THEY'RE
THEIR
THERE

LEARN THEM BEFORE I LOSE MY MIND

also yes, richmond @ $1.30 is lolzworthy

 

[Keystone agony]

Port are excellent value to win as are Buldogs probably back them in at the line or even bit higher depending on safety.

 

[Keystone agony]

THEY'RE
THEIR
THERE

LEARN THEM BEFORE I LOSE MY MIND

also yes, richmond @ $1.30 is lolzworthy

Sorry didn't know this was a spelling and grammar board

 

[Probitas_]

how can anyone like Richmond at 1.30

Yeah agreed, if any team has the ability to lose a game to someone they shouldn't its the Tiges.

 

[KardiniaPark]

There playing Melbourne. Albeit Melbourne dont mind backing themselves against Richmond. Also Richmond need a win and need a good win, they have had 2 losses they will be hungry for success.

Any chance KP and Twarby will actually put any bets on the line or themselves on the line, than just beating down on others?

Err... yeah I do, but I don't feel like diving into perceived unders this week so ill hold back ATM. I just gave my thoughts 2 minutes ago in this thread ffs?? I also posted a couple of Multis for last weeks games so have fun digging back through my posts to find them because I know you will. Has no-one ever disagreed with you before? Talk about sand in ya crack...

 

[Donkson]

Port are excellent value to win as are Buldogs probably back them in at the line or even bit higher depending on safety.

what does safety mean and why is it relevant to gambling?

 

[twarby]

What price would you suggest they be against Melbourne before we start liking them ?

Also have you watched Melbourne play this year ?

Tigers 1.51
Demons 2.94

yes i have, and they should lose this game, but the Tigers are still s**t and don't deserve 1.30 against anyone besides the Suns & Giants