I couldnt back a Hong Kong horse outside of HK with any confidence full stop. They do have some good horses but generally speaking the class of horse that races there is quite poor in my opinion
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I couldnt back a Hong Kong horse outside of HK with any confidence full stop. They do have some good horses but generally speaking the class of horse that races there is quite poor in my opinion
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I understand the theory I'm just putting a bit of faith in the fact John Moore sent this over here for that race, for the 2 mile. His form 2000 and below is substandard but at 2400 is infinitely better, if he can take a jump like that on aus soil and run to his 2400m races he's good overs IMO. He'll need to improve to beat Hartnell but I like the place odds regardless.
iluvparis
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Fair shout. Tend to agree - limited horse population can boost the record of some moderate horses.
iluvparis
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Similar reason why I think a fast pace is a benefit to Contributer. I'd say 95% of the time when you get a fast pace the best horse wins. You do get rare exceptions (the likes of Whobe and Lonhcat) but generally a fast pace will mean a horses class advanatage becomes even more telling. Criterion is a good honest Aussie Group 1 horse - but in class terms I think Contributer has him covered.
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I think Dominants international form could dispel a bit of that. The Sheema Classic and Vase's have been very solid albeit at odds.
iluvparis
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They are still only 2400m. I'd back a horse like Flintshire to beat him further the further the race went. Surely if he was any good at the sort of level he'd have had a crack at the Arc by now?
That's why I will be backing both for the similar result, I will be looking to make most of my investment back on TTW and if something else rolls me I will cop the full whack like I did when the Magic Man pulled their pants down in the Newmarket.
I think Contributer is a better horse than Criterion but until he proves (in Aus) that he is at his best in a solidly run 2000M race particularly from barrier 13 (he has had the soft draws this campaign) then I can't back him one out, I know what I'm going to get with Criterion and he is drawn to get the run of the race.
iluvparis
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He is yet to win outside of 3yo grade. I'd be dissapointed if he broke his maiden as an older horse on Saturday. If this race was in the UK and he had a profile like that I think he'd be well and truly double figure odds.
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Not declaring him or anything this week I just think at $4 the place to be ahead of 2 of WSTB, Big Memory and an out of form protectionist is a good bet. Completely unproven over the distance but if he can run it as strong as he looks like he could with those final sectionals in the 2400 he's a real good bet.
iluvparis
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Would take Protectionist and WSTB in a match bet against him myself.
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140 Unit outlay. More than the 60-100 I'd generally play, but had some good success with confidence last year, and am really keen on a few this year as well. Seems one of those days where I either get it completely right or wrong. Very keen in the 2 main races and seemingly am risking the godolphin runners.
R4
Sempre Libera 3 Win 3 Place @10/3
I have a feeling Gai rates this horse. An expensive buy and coming along nicely, I think Gai has it set for this race and will go onto bigger things in the spring and next Autumn. Lake Geneva and co all have good chances, but I think a few of these could run a little flat after the Slipper runs and that's why I'm risking them.
R5
Scissor Kick 5 Units EW @9/2.80
Going for the one who is the most honest and finally draws a reasonable barrier. He's the box ticker, probably not the classiest of these, but goes well fresh, never lost at the track, tries it's all and can do it on any ground. Seems a really good EW play and a terrific price.
R6
Ballet Suite 8 Units EW @7.50
2 Units Gust of Wind @17
2 Units Sweet and Speedy
Really like how Waller has this filly going along. Ran super last start at a big price, but did have smart market support late. Has Moore on, yes the barrier is a bit difficult, I think Moore may push forward, pending how the track is playing. Looks one of the more talented going forward. Another really promising filly is Gust of Wind. Still very raw, but if they run along, then she could be the knock out hope and is worth a little play. Just in case she gets the gun run, and the tempo suits, ill have another 2 units on Sweet and Speedy.
R7
4 Units EW Diamond Drille
Hopefully Cosmic Endeavor sets a good speed here. She won this race last year, and is tracking nicely for this based on the Coolmore run which was very good, forgive latest. Rain wouldn't hurt either. First Seal is the class, and I just can't take the price not knowing how she'll be after the last couple of tough runs. Noble Protector also an obvious winning chance, but want to see her prove herself against the best before I can commit.
R8
Protectionist 15 Win 25 Place Units @5/1.60
Keen on Protectionist. Having a large EW bet on him. The market support at every start shows that he must be going very well, but simply needs the 2 miles. I think he'll bring his A grade form on Saturday, and if he doesn't win will be in the top 3. He's better than Hartnell, and I think Hartnell will be exposed.
R9
To The World 25 Win Units @4
Adelaide 15 Win units @9
Risking Contributer over the genuinely run 2000m. TTW was cruising around the bend, and when Hall pushed the trigger he didn't let down like I thought he would. But for me, that's just fitness and getting him to peak for this one. Adelaide has been plain in his trials but, I've seen Waller runners do that before, and he isn't just any other Waller runner. The class of the field, and if he turns up, he to should be there a bouts. Goes well fresh, runs to his CP form, and he'll go close.
R10
Griante 8 Win @9
Chloe in Paris 8 Win @8.50
Griante horse has a stack of ability and has finally put it all together, the race has many chances, but with pace in the race should get a good run and be in the finish.
Another promising mare who ran really well in the Galaxy,Ollie sticks, and generally that's a good sign.
R4
Sempre Libera 3 Win 3 Place @10/3
I have a feeling Gai rates this horse. An expensive buy and coming along nicely, I think Gai has it set for this race and will go onto bigger things in the spring and next Autumn. Lake Geneva and co all have good chances, but I think a few of these could run a little flat after the Slipper runs and that's why I'm risking them.
R5
Scissor Kick 5 Units EW @9/2.80
Going for the one who is the most honest and finally draws a reasonable barrier. He's the box ticker, probably not the classiest of these, but goes well fresh, never lost at the track, tries it's all and can do it on any ground. Seems a really good EW play and a terrific price.
R6
Ballet Suite 8 Units EW @7.50
2 Units Gust of Wind @17
2 Units Sweet and Speedy
Really like how Waller has this filly going along. Ran super last start at a big price, but did have smart market support late. Has Moore on, yes the barrier is a bit difficult, I think Moore may push forward, pending how the track is playing. Looks one of the more talented going forward. Another really promising filly is Gust of Wind. Still very raw, but if they run along, then she could be the knock out hope and is worth a little play. Just in case she gets the gun run, and the tempo suits, ill have another 2 units on Sweet and Speedy.
R7
4 Units EW Diamond Drille
Hopefully Cosmic Endeavor sets a good speed here. She won this race last year, and is tracking nicely for this based on the Coolmore run which was very good, forgive latest. Rain wouldn't hurt either. First Seal is the class, and I just can't take the price not knowing how she'll be after the last couple of tough runs. Noble Protector also an obvious winning chance, but want to see her prove herself against the best before I can commit.
R8
Protectionist 15 Win 25 Place Units @5/1.60
Keen on Protectionist. Having a large EW bet on him. The market support at every start shows that he must be going very well, but simply needs the 2 miles. I think he'll bring his A grade form on Saturday, and if he doesn't win will be in the top 3. He's better than Hartnell, and I think Hartnell will be exposed.
R9
To The World 25 Win Units @4
Adelaide 15 Win units @9
Risking Contributer over the genuinely run 2000m. TTW was cruising around the bend, and when Hall pushed the trigger he didn't let down like I thought he would. But for me, that's just fitness and getting him to peak for this one. Adelaide has been plain in his trials but, I've seen Waller runners do that before, and he isn't just any other Waller runner. The class of the field, and if he turns up, he to should be there a bouts. Goes well fresh, runs to his CP form, and he'll go close.
R10
Griante 8 Win @9
Chloe in Paris 8 Win @8.50
Griante horse has a stack of ability and has finally put it all together, the race has many chances, but with pace in the race should get a good run and be in the finish.
Another promising mare who ran really well in the Galaxy,Ollie sticks, and generally that's a good sign.
iluvparis
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Noble Protector's 1 length defeat to Contributer not seen as 'proving herself against the best'?
Surely better than any mare's form?
Still not sure where this Contributer won't get a strongly run 2000m stuff is coming from. If he loses I'd be surprised if its the pace of the race that beats him.
Surely better than any mare's form?
Still not sure where this Contributer won't get a strongly run 2000m stuff is coming from. If he loses I'd be surprised if its the pace of the race that beats him.
Noble Protector's 1 length defeat to Contributer not seen as 'proving herself against the best'?
Surely better than any mare's form?
Still not sure where this Contributer won't get a strongly run 2000m stuff is coming from. If he loses I'd be surprised if its the pace of the race that beats him.
I'm struggling to understand why Contributer can't win if it's a strong pace myself. I've got others ahead of him for different reasons but he will still be in the finish
Noble Protector's 1 length defeat to Contributer not seen as 'proving herself against the best'?
Surely better than any mare's form?
Still not sure where this Contributer won't get a strongly run 2000m stuff is coming from. If he loses I'd be surprised if its the pace of the race that beats him.
It's not that he won't be able to do it, likely he does do it and blow them all away again but he hasn't done it in Australia yet.
His Australian starts to date.
Coongy: Very slow early, puts them away with his dynamic turn of foot.
Emirates: Very fast pace, just plain to the line with big negative splits late, was that the F2 track or back to 1600M???
Apollo: Moderate early tempo, he was running slight negative sections before unleashing his dynamic turn of foot, last 200 clear best rating on the day
Chipping Norton: He raced on a faster speed here, not ridiculous but positive sections early, his late sections no where near what he is capable of, his least convincing win this time in, was that faster early pace, W-Farm track or 2nd up (not sure I believe this 2nd up theory myself).???
Ranvet: His last 800M one of the longest sustained sprints I can remember, comparable to Black Caviar (at different distances of course) but off a genuine walk for the first 1200M of the race.
So the question has to remain is he going to be as dynamic in a strongly run 2000M? I can't definitively say yes, particularly from barrier 13 when he has had the soft draws in every run this campaign.
I think this race will be run at a similar pace to the Chipping Norton so we will find out just how good he is this weekend.
Agree regarding Nobel Protector, I think she is the best mare in Australia (Lucia Valentina, Silent Achiever not included), she was nearly as dynamic as Contributer in the Coongy and her two runs this time have been genuine G1 mares grade ratings, if the track does not get too soft and they can still lead and win she is very very hard to beat in this race.
Catkins will be a bit soft at the end of a genuinely run 1600M at Randwick, Cosmic Endevour & Diamond Drille I cannot have off poor Doncasters (Ryder also for CE) and First Seal was pretty plain from my point of view against the fillies last time, had a bit of a mixed campaign and not sure she is ready to peak here.
A11dAtP0w3R
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Brave man. Im all over Noble Protector for what its worth. (yes even i, president of the FS fan club has jumped ship)
All these distance switches/race changes make me wonder if Thompson actually knows what the **** he's doing?
The owners replaced the jockey last week, could be time for a trainer change after this prep too me thinks.
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A11dAtP0w3R
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Money for Adelaide? WTF?? iluvparis could you remember if Adelaide was just a shit track worker then all of sudden put it together race day in the UK? Off those trials there is no possible way you could have him.
Will stick with To The World as long as the track isn't a bog.
Will stick with To The World as long as the track isn't a bog.
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A11dAtP0w3R
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As reference to my earlier point about First Seal changing distances: See Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse over 1600m last week following a 2000m run at the start before.
Yes, i know that was open company and this is same fillies and mares but the point remains, hate it when trainers **** around back and forth with distance ranges, unless you have a very very special horse its a recipe for disaster.
The perfect build up for Noble Protector to this race and you're getting a bigger price than First Seal? Its seems insanity to me, meh, maybe that's why I'm a mug punter, but i have just unloaded Keremdec Australian Guineas style again this week on NP @ $3.50, super confident, a non Nash style butchering here and we get the money…FO SHO!
Yes, i know that was open company and this is same fillies and mares but the point remains, hate it when trainers **** around back and forth with distance ranges, unless you have a very very special horse its a recipe for disaster.
The perfect build up for Noble Protector to this race and you're getting a bigger price than First Seal? Its seems insanity to me, meh, maybe that's why I'm a mug punter, but i have just unloaded Keremdec Australian Guineas style again this week on NP @ $3.50, super confident, a non Nash style butchering here and we get the money…FO SHO!
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1500-2000-1600 racing in open handicaps, 3YO SW and WFA. Just strange. Regardless I couldn't back a horse dropping back in distance after a bleed and its a 3yo filly of all things! I feel sorry for FS if she wins this she's one seriously tough filly, but I can't see her doing it. Oh and definitely sack the trainer. could have been handled so much better. Reeks of arrogance over smarts. Listening to him speak about the horse only strengthens this view.
rideclutch
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Should've finished closer too, Willow thought he was riding Lankan Rupee.
She is just better than these IMO; only concern - does she want further now?
rideclutch
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In general, or just in regards to Contributer?
Valid question but she will make this a truly run 1600M which is not what her main rivals in Catkins, First Seal and to a lesser extent Cosmic Endevour (she is cooked anyway) want, a genuinely run 1600M at Randwick is not too different to a 2000M event, she can really own the race making sure the others need to be at their best to run her down.
I'm just hoping the track doesn't get too wet and chop out making it difficult to lead and win, if its in the G4 range with leaders getting their chance then she is very difficult to beat.
In general, sure some horses might dip 2nd up but just as many and if not more go just as well or even better 2nd up.
I just think it is too commonly used as an excuse for horses who don't perform when 2nd up.
rideclutch
Norm Smith Medallist
IMO it only applys it to stayers/middle distance horses who sprint outstandingly fresh and then only go up about 200m next start, most commonly 1400 to a mile.
The best example I can think of is Sertorius' 2 previous preps - in contrast with what they decided to do this time in.
