April - Daily Punt

[ABitWoofy]

jebus, well that wasn't how I expected the race to pan out

$1100 up early......................................... finished $300 down for the day

...I love racing


Time to go explain this to the wifey

 

[iluvparis]

Last 3 wins - heavy 9 soft 7 heavy 8

What happened to the talk of an improving track earlier in the week?!?!


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[rideclutch]

How good is Red Cadeaux lol? What a horse.

 

[iluvparis]

How good is Red Cadeaux lol? What a horse.

They should have left him in Oz permanently 2 years ago!!

As a guide he has run over 2000m in The UK once in the last 3 years (beaten 15 lengths at Royal Ascot)

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[bombers21]

How good is Red Cadeaux lol? What a horse.

Full of heart

 

[bombers21]

Flemington

Loading up on Girl In Flight

 

[iluvparis]

Watching the replay. Pretty much everything stayed in exactly the same position on the straight apart from the first 2 who looked to be on a similar strip (suggests Tosen didn't handle the track)


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[bombers21]

Flemington

Loading up on Girl In Flight

No good. Time to cheer a couple home for the Sydney quaddie

 

[ksardog]

No good. Time to cheer a couple home for the Sydney quaddie

Well done

$25,481
What percentage u get?

 

[bombers21]

Well done

$25,481
What percentage u get?

Thanks mate. Super result!!

12%

 

[PureFooty]

140 Unit outlay. More than the 60-100 I'd generally play, but had some good success with confidence last year, and am really keen on a few this year as well. Seems one of those days where I either get it completely right or wrong. Very keen in the 2 main races and seemingly am risking the godolphin runners.

R4
Sempre Libera 3 Win 3 Place @10/3
I have a feeling Gai rates this horse. An expensive buy and coming along nicely, I think Gai has it set for this race and will go onto bigger things in the spring and next Autumn. Lake Geneva and co all have good chances, but I think a few of these could run a little flat after the Slipper runs and that's why I'm risking them.

R5
Scissor Kick 5 Units EW @9/2.80
Going for the one who is the most honest and finally draws a reasonable barrier. He's the box ticker, probably not the classiest of these, but goes well fresh, never lost at the track, tries it's all and can do it on any ground. Seems a really good EW play and a terrific price.
R6
Ballet Suite 8 Units EW @7.50
2 Units Gust of Wind @17
2 Units Sweet and Speedy
Really like how Waller has this filly going along. Ran super last start at a big price, but did have smart market support late. Has Moore on, yes the barrier is a bit difficult, I think Moore may push forward, pending how the track is playing. Looks one of the more talented going forward. Another really promising filly is Gust of Wind. Still very raw, but if they run along, then she could be the knock out hope and is worth a little play. Just in case she gets the gun run, and the tempo suits, ill have another 2 units on Sweet and Speedy.

R7
4 Units EW Diamond Drille
Hopefully Cosmic Endeavor sets a good speed here. She won this race last year, and is tracking nicely for this based on the Coolmore run which was very good, forgive latest. Rain wouldn't hurt either. First Seal is the class, and I just can't take the price not knowing how she'll be after the last couple of tough runs. Noble Protector also an obvious winning chance, but want to see her prove herself against the best before I can commit.

R8
Protectionist 15 Win 25 Place Units @5/1.60
Keen on Protectionist. Having a large EW bet on him. The market support at every start shows that he must be going very well, but simply needs the 2 miles. I think he'll bring his A grade form on Saturday, and if he doesn't win will be in the top 3. He's better than Hartnell, and I think Hartnell will be exposed.

R9
To The World 25 Win Units @4
Adelaide 15 Win units @9
Risking Contributer over the genuinely run 2000m. TTW was cruising around the bend, and when Hall pushed the trigger he didn't let down like I thought he would. But for me, that's just fitness and getting him to peak for this one. Adelaide has been plain in his trials but, I've seen Waller runners do that before, and he isn't just any other Waller runner. The class of the field, and if he turns up, he to should be there a bouts. Goes well fresh, runs to his CP form, and he'll go close.

R10
Griante 8 Win @9
Chloe in Paris 8 Win @8.50
Griante horse has a stack of ability and has finally put it all together, the race has many chances, but with pace in the race should get a good run and be in the finish.
Another promising mare who ran really well in the Galaxy,Ollie sticks, and generally that's a good sign.

130 Unit outlay for a return of 34 Units with Gust of Wind at 17's. Griante got done right near the line which cost me another 72 and Sempre Libera probs should've at least placed and make a case it should've won. Oh well.

 

[iluvparis]

Grand National - 7141m - 1:15 AM Eastern Standard Time

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...739&r_date=2015-04-11&antepost=Y#raceTabs=sc_

Normally I would say this is the biggest lottery in racing but after today's Randwick results it should be a piece of piss finding the winner here. With 40 runners this is the ultimate get out stakes!!! My top 5 (in order):

Godsmejudge - 22/1 - 2nd and 1st in the last two Scottish Nationals, should enjoy the Spring ground and has been set for this all season.
First Lieutenant - 25/1 - Class horse who won a Grade 1 steeple chase over 3 miles at this meeting two years ago - hasn't won since but that lets him get a break in the weights for the race
Rocky Creek - 10/1 - Probably the best treated at the weights - bolted in a week after the weights were released (can't be penalised) and looked the winner 3 fences out last year before just fading at the finish

Outsiders for the LOLs:

Lord Windemere - 50/1 - Last year's Gold Cup winner (premier Grade 1 staying championship) who has done SFA before or since. Trainer hasn't actually trained a winner since that race. Probably just a donkey but worth a spec bet in case they have been setting him up for this.
Wyck Hill - 80/1 - same owner as the hot fave (SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR) so this is more of a Waller type play (fave gets stuffed and the longshot from the same owner bolts in).

 

[Gavin Excell]

Grand National - 7141m - 1:15 AM Eastern Standard Time

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...739&r_date=2015-04-11&antepost=Y#raceTabs=sc_

Normally I would say this is the biggest lottery in racing but after today's Randwick results it should be a piece of piss finding the winner here. With 40 runners this is the ultimate get out stakes!!! My top 5 (in order):

Godsmejudge - 22/1 - 2nd and 1st in the last two Scottish Nationals, should enjoy the Spring ground and has been set for this all season.
First Lieutenant - 25/1 - Class horse who won a Grade 1 steeple chase over 3 miles at this meeting two years ago - hasn't won since but that lets him get a break in the weights for the race
Rocky Creek - 10/1 - Probably the best treated at the weights - bolted in a week after the weights were released (can't be penalised) and looked the winner 3 fences out last year before just fading at the finish

Outsiders for the LOLs:

Lord Windemere - 50/1 - Last year's Gold Cup winner (premier Grade 1 staying championship) who has done SFA before or since. Trainer hasn't actually trained a winner since that race. Probably just a donkey but worth a spec bet in case they have been setting him up for this.
Wyck Hill - 80/1 - same owner as the hot fave (SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR) so this is more of a Waller type play (fave gets stuffed and the longshot from the same owner bolts in).

do you have a selection for the ladies? Or should they just be content in bringing a plate?

 

[iluvparis]

do you have a selection for the ladies? Or should they just be content in bringing a plate?

que?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

My day playing slot cars at Royal Raindwick cost me a small fortune.

There's a reason why indian's work in call centre's and not as track managers, look into it dickheads.

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

Grand National - 7141m - 1:15 AM Eastern Standard Time

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...739&r_date=2015-04-11&antepost=Y#raceTabs=sc_

Normally I would say this is the biggest lottery in racing but after today's Randwick results it should be a piece of piss finding the winner here. With 40 runners this is the ultimate get out stakes!!! My top 5 (in order):

Godsmejudge - 22/1 - 2nd and 1st in the last two Scottish Nationals, should enjoy the Spring ground and has been set for this all season.
First Lieutenant - 25/1 - Class horse who won a Grade 1 steeple chase over 3 miles at this meeting two years ago - hasn't won since but that lets him get a break in the weights for the race
Rocky Creek - 10/1 - Probably the best treated at the weights - bolted in a week after the weights were released (can't be penalised) and looked the winner 3 fences out last year before just fading at the finish

Outsiders for the LOLs:

Lord Windemere - 50/1 - Last year's Gold Cup winner (premier Grade 1 staying championship) who has done SFA before or since. Trainer hasn't actually trained a winner since that race. Probably just a donkey but worth a spec bet in case they have been setting him up for this.
Wyck Hill - 80/1 - same owner as the hot fave (SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR) so this is more of a Waller type play (fave gets stuffed and the longshot from the same owner bolts in).

Nothing up on the TAB site, what are they waiting for? ?

 

[iluvparis]

Nothing up on the TAB site, what are they waiting for? ?

TAB probably can't handle it because it has more than 24 horses

All of the corporate should have markets up.

 

[chunkylover]

so i build up a nice bank on betfair betting on dodgy greyhounds and i am all set to have a crack at something in the grand national and betfairs has closed its money transfer for 2 hours so my money is stuck in the aussie wallet and 3 cents in my international wallet. Brilliant!!!

 

[Main Man]

CRITERION now the lay of the year

I could not resist, a lesson learned to everyone out there!!!

Recent form is the key to backing any winner, don't concern yourself with who has done what in the past and back the horse with the best recent figures, which was Crtiterion despite some suggesting otherwise!!

 

[iluvparis]

I could not resist, a lesson learned to everyone out there!!!

Recent form is the key to backing any winner, don't concern yourself with who has done what in the past and back the horse with the best recent figures, which was Crtiterion despite some suggesting otherwise!!

Yup - totally wrong.

Did say 20 minutes BEFORE the race the form on the day would be worthless. Still highly doubt he will win another race unless he gets a complete bog - H8 S7 H9 for his last 3 wins says it all - happy to lay him all day on a fair track and I will say as a partial defence people were talking as if the track would improve but it seemed to go backwards overnight!

Complete joke of a race - if that turns out to be a legitimate form reference I'll be stunned. Two biggest rivals were basically last and second last, the other Jap horse didn't seem to handle the Wet - and he stuffed the rest of the Australian hacks. He has no chance at Royal ascot.

But well done the ATC having a horse rolled on his first 9 starts in open company and a 2-mile handicapper running the quinella.

 

[iluvparis]

Grand National - 7141m - 1:15 AM Eastern Standard Time

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...739&r_date=2015-04-11&antepost=Y#raceTabs=sc_

Normally I would say this is the biggest lottery in racing but after today's Randwick results it should be a piece of piss finding the winner here. With 40 runners this is the ultimate get out stakes!!! My top 5 (in order):

Godsmejudge - 22/1 - 2nd and 1st in the last two Scottish Nationals, should enjoy the Spring ground and has been set for this all season.
First Lieutenant - 25/1 - Class horse who won a Grade 1 steeple chase over 3 miles at this meeting two years ago - hasn't won since but that lets him get a break in the weights for the race
Rocky Creek - 10/1 - Probably the best treated at the weights - bolted in a week after the weights were released (can't be penalised) and looked the winner 3 fences out last year before just fading at the finish

Outsiders for the LOLs:

Lord Windemere - 50/1 - Last year's Gold Cup winner (premier Grade 1 staying championship) who has done SFA before or since. Trainer hasn't actually trained a winner since that race. Probably just a donkey but worth a spec bet in case they have been setting him up for this.
Wyck Hill - 80/1 - same owner as the hot fave (SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR) so this is more of a Waller type play (fave gets stuffed and the longshot from the same owner bolts in).

Still looking for the final finishing order but may have snuck 1 into the top 10

 

[iluvparis]

Still looking for the final finishing order but may have snuck 1 into the top 10

Nope was too generous - 16th and 17th the closet for me

 

[Main Man]

Yup - totally wrong.

Did say 20 minutes BEFORE the race the form on the day would be worthless. Still highly doubt he will win another race unless he gets a complete bog - H8 S7 H9 for his last 3 wins says it all - happy to lay him all day on a fair track and I will say as a partial defence people were talking as if the track would improve but it seemed to go backwards overnight!

Complete joke of a race - if that turns out to be a legitimate form reference I'll be stunned. Two biggest rivals were basically last and second last, the other Jap horse didn't seem to handle the Wet - and he stuffed the rest of the Australian hacks. He has no chance at Royal ascot.

But well done the ATC having a horse rolled on his first 9 starts in open company and a 2-mile handicapper running the quinella.

Stop sucking on lemons, I have heard they are awfully bitter?!!

 

[yaco55]

If Purton was their first choice then it makes the decision now more understandable but I doubt they sack him if TTW won the BMW.

I don't care which jockey was on he still gets beaten in the BMW for mine.

Purton rode Aerolovecity to win the premier Autumn Group 1 sprint in japan.

 

[yaco55]

I couldnt back a Hong Kong horse outside of HK with any confidence full stop. They do have some good horses but generally speaking the class of horse that races there is quite poor in my opinion

HK horses have won Group 1's in Dubai/England/America/Japan/Singapore to name a few - They travel well.