Preview Burning questions for our premiership defence in 2024
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Scodog10
Brownlow Medallist
I understand the transition questions lingering because projecting forward is a given in sport. Personally I think that will take care of itself with the right people in the FD. We’ve seen Rocca/ Licuria/ Buckley/ Burns/ Clement/ Wakelin> O’Bree/ Lockyer/ Medhurst/ Fraser/ Davis > Swan/ Heater/ Didak/ Daisy/ Beams > Reid/ Roughead/ Treloar/ Varcoe/ Greenwood all of which were relatively smooth transitions across 15+ years. It’s already low key started the previous two years with Adams and Grundy departing while they retained currency, but ramps up beyond 2024 with the remainder of that 2011 draft cohort (Mihocek, Mitchell, WHE and Elliott) pushing 32.
My burning question is what’s the next evolution of our game? As time goes by the quality teams come back to the pack because the rest of the competition gets better at blunting their edge. For us that’s our ball movement and wave running which we pulled out of our backsides on GF day after it had gone missing for big chunks of the regular season. Knowing that defending that ball movement will be priority I hope that given the addition of Schultz with his elite pressure, a hopefully full season out of McStay and full seasons from JDG and Naicos in the middle where a bit more stoppage and territory focused on 2024.
My burning question is what’s the next evolution of our game? As time goes by the quality teams come back to the pack because the rest of the competition gets better at blunting their edge. For us that’s our ball movement and wave running which we pulled out of our backsides on GF day after it had gone missing for big chunks of the regular season. Knowing that defending that ball movement will be priority I hope that given the addition of Schultz with his elite pressure, a hopefully full season out of McStay and full seasons from JDG and Naicos in the middle where a bit more stoppage and territory focused on 2024.
Cousin of Daicos
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You mean towards the very end of the year when our form turned really bad for nearly a month?
Where I also said I was hoping it was just them waiting to switch on for finals? Which they did?
You mean that stage?
I mean, pre-season I had us finishing top too but I'm gonna assume you won't acknowledge that though right?
Yeah, our form in that final month or so was of genuine concern. Sue me for showing said concern and at least having the wherewithal to explain where I was coming from at the time and putting actual thought into my thinking process.
I've also explained how I think we can go back to back, but yeah, if you're putting a gun to my head right now, my tip for the flag next year would be GWS. Doesn't seem too outlandish to me.
Their path is almost exactly mirroring ours:
- Got rid of a longstanding coach who was underperforming given the talent on the list
- Took a low profile Richmond assistant (mind you he came 2nd to Fly for our job)
- Took them a bit to get going and then around the halfway mark went on a streak
- Lost the Prelim by a point
Looks eerily familiar no? They don't have any genuine weaknesses in their list (you could maybe argue the forward line? Maybe?) and they have a decent amount of improvement in them.
We're the second oldest list in the comp and as Geelong showed, you can fall quite easily if you rely too heavily on much older players. It's easy to get carried away with back to backs and dynasties in the after glow of a Premiership, but I prefer a slightly more measured approach.
sr36
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Macrae might not be good enough, but JDG, Nick, Pendles, and Crisp are.
This one?
Don't mind snakes. I won't put up a picture of it, we all know what I'm referring to.
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If they get a good run
Krueger,Dean and mcstay basically like new recruits
If mcinnes and macrae come on..
Gives us a different look
More consistency from aj too
Go pies
Krueger,Dean and mcstay basically like new recruits
If mcinnes and macrae come on..
Gives us a different look
More consistency from aj too
Go pies
Bingo. For all of our Finals pressure, we absolutely lost the plot in H&A against teams who pinpointed passes and/or broke through our rolling defensive structures. If you can keep the ball pinging around skilfully enough against us, we can really be poor at stopping the leading forwards and/or crumbing forward/mids.
I'd like to see us fine-tune our defence, especially from opposition kick-in where we seem to give up room to allow our mids to run back to the wing. If we forced more one-on-one there, the ball wouldn't move quite as freely as it has done.
Secondly is our forward structure which we've seen glimpses of. If all of Checkers, McStay, Cox, Elliot, Shultz and Hill can stay put and be healthy for the season then we may just see a lot more marks I50 and better set shots rather than relying on pressure goals. Here's hoping.
sr36
Hall of Famer
Teams will eventually get good enough to dissect the midfielder zones even when under pressure, but it's not going to happen for a while. The midfielders zoning will remain king for now as it works well enough defensively and means you're set up in position to execute attacking patterns when the ball is turned over.
jathanas
Premium Platinum
Sidey had some lean games mid season, I always knew he’d come good in finals. We have to understand that both he Pendles can only bring their best when absolutely required and that’s fine. Problem is now with the loss of Adams who picks up the slack…Mitchell cannot. I think we are one quality player short in the middle.
Our forward line is solid, provided McStay and Mihocek stay fit.
Backline also, big question mark on Murphy though…poor fella.
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Defence is probably the biggest risk, if Murphy is forced to retire that’s a lot left on Jeremy Howe, who had a great GF but isn’t getting any younger (duh)
Sdeys “ lean games” ( I didn’t really see the same thing) were likely post recovery from his PCL. Didn’t take long at all to get to full form and fitness.
Unlike you I don’t think we will miss adams who due to our surplus of mids was shunted off to spend large chunks of time in the forward line. Adams has been replaced by Shultz who is actually a forward . The last spot in the 22/23 that Ginnivan held can be covered by McInnes/macrae/noble/Johnson/Allan depending upon positional needs and form.
Frampton to return to defence is the cover for Murphy who unlike others I’m not writing off until we hear something official.
This is what you refer to as misinformation.
Sidney had many lean games compared to his finals output. Look at the stats and impact. As stated in my OP this is normal but we need to account for the loss in productivity. These are facts.
Adam’s was critical to our midfield even though he was shunted to our HFF. He gave a chop out at level that no other ‘HFF’ could. He’s an elite on baller and in 2024 he will have played even more on ball according to my factually correct and indisputable statement in para 1.
Our whole form and fortune changed when Murphy entered the side in 2022. Frampton is no replacement but good try
Mollythedolly
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I do love it when people use opinions as facts. Reality is we have no idea about Sidey’s relative fitness and/or the role players are tasked with, and how the coaches measure their productivity within those caveats. We see something, we form an opinion, but let’s not kid ourselves that that makes it fact.
It’s not misinformation nor information, it’s just my opinion
Biggest determinants of our fate next season, in order:
1. Injuries
2. Whether we can develop our game style further
3. Whether any of a few improving teams really go up to a new level (GWS, Swans, Brisbane, Port, in particular - I'm not such a believer in Blues and Dees, but they are thereabouts too i guess)
4. Whether our midfield can again get the job done when it counts (our main vulnerability imho)
5. Can nick daicos get even better again, beyond our expectations?
1. Injuries
2. Whether we can develop our game style further
3. Whether any of a few improving teams really go up to a new level (GWS, Swans, Brisbane, Port, in particular - I'm not such a believer in Blues and Dees, but they are thereabouts too i guess)
4. Whether our midfield can again get the job done when it counts (our main vulnerability imho)
5. Can nick daicos get even better again, beyond our expectations?
Defence obviously the biggest question mark along with probably ruck. Not too concerned though with the list in general
Billy frampton will be our most important depth player so his availability will be key to whether we can cover losses in either of these departments. Although steene might be ready too later in the season
Around midfield forward and small defence we have lots of options….mcstay noble Johnson and Kreuger the most experienced players who missed out on a flag but more importantly the next generation including macrae McInnes Allan Harrison etc.
And of course the mythical Charlie Dean…
Billy frampton will be our most important depth player so his availability will be key to whether we can cover losses in either of these departments. Although steene might be ready too later in the season
Around midfield forward and small defence we have lots of options….mcstay noble Johnson and Kreuger the most experienced players who missed out on a flag but more importantly the next generation including macrae McInnes Allan Harrison etc.
And of course the mythical Charlie Dean…
76woodenspooners
Brownlow Medallist
(1) How do we improve our system? “If you’re not improving you’re going backwards”. Super encouraged about some of Fly’s comments about the number of mistakes we made in the GF and scope for improvement. What will our 2024 game plan look like, and how will it hold up?
(2) Will there be any changing of the guard? And if so, how big will it be, and who will be involved? Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Elliott, Cox, Mihocek, Crisp, WHE are all 30+ now.
(3) What will our forward line look like? It’s the most unsettled line with us losing Adams and Ginni out of the list, McStay having had a bit of a rough trot with injuries, Johnson’s form being hot and cold, Elliott and Mihocek not getting any younger, and Harrison and McInnis having shown shown glimpses.
(4) What does our 2024 ruck situation look like? Will we retain the 2 ruck setup? Cox isn’t getting any younger. Cameron has been a bit hot and cold. McStay is needed in the forward line. Frampton can pinch hit if needed. Will Begg and / or Steene be ready if needed?
(2) Will there be any changing of the guard? And if so, how big will it be, and who will be involved? Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Elliott, Cox, Mihocek, Crisp, WHE are all 30+ now.
- Fin Macrae is going into his 4th season. He’s played 12 games, 1 in 2023. Surely this needs to be his year?
- Reef McInnis is also going into his 4th season. He’s played 11 games, 5 in 2023. Surely this needs to be his year?
- Harrison is going into his 3rd season. We saw glimpses in 2023, can he find a spot in the forward line in 2024?
- Ed Allen is going into his 2nd season and yet to debut. He got a 4 year contract so clearly he’s rated. Will 2024 be his year?
- Jakob Ryan is also going into his 2nd season. After an inauspicious debut, will 2024 be a breakout year for him?
- Will Kruger and Dean’s bodies hold up the rigours of AFL footy? Will they get a good run at it in 2024?
- Will Ash Johnson cement a spot in the forward line?
- Will fringe young players Carmichael, Richards, Begg, and/or Steene have any impact on our 2024 season?
- Will new draftees DeMattia and Jiath get any games?
- What impact will the 3 players have who are yet to join our list? Can any of the emulate Markov’s achievements?
(3) What will our forward line look like? It’s the most unsettled line with us losing Adams and Ginni out of the list, McStay having had a bit of a rough trot with injuries, Johnson’s form being hot and cold, Elliott and Mihocek not getting any younger, and Harrison and McInnis having shown shown glimpses.
(4) What does our 2024 ruck situation look like? Will we retain the 2 ruck setup? Cox isn’t getting any younger. Cameron has been a bit hot and cold. McStay is needed in the forward line. Frampton can pinch hit if needed. Will Begg and / or Steene be ready if needed?
RobJD
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Agree, can't believe that the Giants aren't in the first line of betting for the 2024 Flag, they've got so much quality in that side and with the same amount of luck as the other top teams, I can see them winning it - to me, Geelong's fall off was predictable, 1. in 2022, they traded for opportunity and not to cover weaknesses (e.g., recruiting Henry, Bruhn and Bowes - to get Pick 7), and 2. they had bad luck in that they got injuries in the areas they were most weak. Key message from Geelong's year is how we transition on-field leadership from Pendles to the next line of leaders - the Geelong team seemed a little lost without Selwood, and we've got maybe just the one more year to avoid making the same mistake.
RobJD
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I agree, not sure how we cover an injury to Titch - the problem with pure in-side mids like Adams and Titch is that every side needs more than one, but less than two of them. A simple solution would be to get someone like Mathieson as a "break glass in time of emergency" option - don't like the way he plays, but if Titch suffered an injury, I reckon we'd be happy to have him on our list (not sure that Fin Macrae is a pure in-side mid - hope he has a great pre-season and proves me wrong)
cliffdrabble
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Firstly. Need to produce the same intensity in games as this year. Premiership hangovers are defined by drops in intensity, so that will be the coaching staff's biggest challenge. How many players will be content with climbing the mountain once only?
Secondly, injuries. You don't win premierships unless injuries to key players are kept to a minimum. And will some of our older players fall off the inevitable cliff that is coming?,
Thirdly, it is a vey even comp. Very little difference between sides 1-10. I would expect GWS, Carlton, Melbourne and Brisbane, particularly if they get Ashcroft back fit and firing, should all be very hard to beat.
We could perhaps be improved by better KF's and a KD who can actually defend, but we have proved ourselves once so no reason we can't salute again if first and second points are favourable
Secondly, injuries. You don't win premierships unless injuries to key players are kept to a minimum. And will some of our older players fall off the inevitable cliff that is coming?,
Thirdly, it is a vey even comp. Very little difference between sides 1-10. I would expect GWS, Carlton, Melbourne and Brisbane, particularly if they get Ashcroft back fit and firing, should all be very hard to beat.
We could perhaps be improved by better KF's and a KD who can actually defend, but we have proved ourselves once so no reason we can't salute again if first and second points are favourable
Apart from a broken leg at hawthorn, Mitchell has not had an injury in his life. Should we need somebody to cover him it’s likely to be temporary and we can source from within our current list.
No thanks to Mathieson. Gun player at the lower level, too slow for afl
My hopes are one or more of Allen, McCrae, Ryan, Reef step up into best 22. All could be above average players.
Very keen to see what we have with Dean. Krugs? Who knows.
For now Shultz is an upgrade on Ginni (and Tay playing that role)
AJ could be a real game changer, mongrel and desire I think are the missing ingredients.
i don’t see any of the older guys dropping off a cliff but we won’t see their best as often and will need to manage game time and thoughtful transitions.
We haven’t seen the best of McStay, imho.
cant see either of the draftees impacting this year but both are great additions.
Improvement in Beau, I think if he can impact the scoreboard more and become a real weapon flipping from defensive to offensive during a game.
Very keen to see what we have with Dean. Krugs? Who knows.
For now Shultz is an upgrade on Ginni (and Tay playing that role)
AJ could be a real game changer, mongrel and desire I think are the missing ingredients.
i don’t see any of the older guys dropping off a cliff but we won’t see their best as often and will need to manage game time and thoughtful transitions.
We haven’t seen the best of McStay, imho.
cant see either of the draftees impacting this year but both are great additions.
Improvement in Beau, I think if he can impact the scoreboard more and become a real weapon flipping from defensive to offensive during a game.
