Do I really believe?

[The Sultan]

GC up there has been a completely different proposition than away, akin really to the difference between playing Adelaide at home rather than away. They know their conditions better, and historically the conditions up there discombobulate our midfielders into fumbling.

Glad it's a day game, and not at night where there is a chance of a heavy dew ( not the ex coach)

 

[NavySteel]

I think we can win the whole damn thing…

 

[Jeremias]

I've thus far managed to avoid this thread but here's my 2c. ferrisb this is all your fault.

Do I post this? Nah. People will laugh at me. They'll think I'm crazy. What, they already do? Right.

Anyway here goes...

Yes. The answer to the question posed by the OP is yes; or at least it now ought to be. Naturally as Carlton fans I think we're largely pessimistic beings - how could you not be after the wild ride that has been the past 20 odd years - but I think you have to believe now.

The reality is we're playing irresistible footy at the moment. And the best thing about this is I think it's a sustainable brand of footy. I certainly believe it can stand up to the pressure of finals footy, it has everything you look for in a game plan and style that does.

Right now, I genuinely believe we're currently the 3rd of 4th best team in it.
That's a wild thing to write. And it's incredible given the absolute s**t we were serving up earlier in the season.

We have 4 rounds to go and we're not yet guaranteed to make finals. We may well have left our run too late, but I am confident that if we maintain the way we've been playing for the past 6 weeks, we will get there.

Side note - even if we don't, the platform we have now set for ourselves to launch into 2024 is an unbelievable one.

A lot of us laugh at Champion Data. But something Daniel Hoyne said a little while back on SEN has had my mind ticking over...
Melbourne missed the finals in 2020. They started poorly but really started motoring around the middle of the year before just missing out.
They used the back end of that season to tinker, adjust, experiment, and find a formula that works before launching into the 2021 season...and the rest, as they say, is history.

I think we're in a similar boat. What we were doing wasn't working. So we tinkered, we adjusted, we moved the magnets...and now we have something that is working. And we now build on that, during the season and over the offseason, regardless of what the next 4 weeks (or possibly more) have in store for us.

I said last week before the Collingwood game that I care much more about the performance than I do about the result. It was a free hit against the Pies, and we took it.

My mindset is exactly the same this week.

We should win. Obviously I want us to win. But I don't expect to win.

Once again, I care much more about the performance than I do about the result. Because regardless of the outcome our job is not yet done.

Win? Brilliant. We're one step closer.

Lose and play as we have been? OK. We are not unbeatable. 2 wins will see us play finals before this game, and 2 wins will see us play finals after it. And those wins will come.

Lose and go back into our shells? Disaster.

Now, here's the big one.

In the midst of our s**t-storm earlier in the year I said the following to some mates of mine:

"If we somehow turn this around and make finals...we're going all the way"

I don't know what compelled me to say it. At the time, it was inconceivable, completely laughable, actually. Oh how they laughed. And to be honest I'm not sure whether I fully believed it at the time.

But with every good passage of play, and certainly with every win since, they've looked across at me, a look of disbelief in their eyes.

Could I be right?

You're damn right I could be.

So much so that if we make the 8 I'll be backing us for the flag. And I never bet on Carlton; I don't think I ever have.

Watch this get a bazillion likes from Carlton fans now and a bazillion more from opposition fans if we don't make it, or get knocked out in September...

+2 wins since this.

If you still don’t believe, I’m sorry to say I cannot help you.

Strap yourselves in and enjoy the ride.

 

[Samji]

For us to miss finals:

We would have to lose against GC & GWS

And

St Kilda would have to beat Richmond, Lions, Geelong (in Geelong)
WB would have to beat Hawks, WCE & Geelong (in Geelong)
GWS would have to beat Port (in Adelaide), Essendon & Carlton
Sydney would need to beat Crows (in Adelaide) and Melbourne

Or we lose both and a combination of the above transpires and Geelong beat both St Kilda & WB at home.

One more win - and we’re playing

 

[Bletch]

 

[ClarkeM]

For us to miss finals:

We would have to lose against GC & GWS

And

St Kilda would have to beat Richmond, Lions, Geelong (in Geelong)
WB would have to beat Hawks, WCE & Geelong (in Geelong)
GWS would have to beat Port (in Adelaide), Essendon & Carlton
Sydney would need to beat Crows (in Adelaide) and Melbourne

Or we lose both and a combination of the above transpires and Geelong beat both St Kilda & WB at home.

One more win - and we’re playing

Got to love breaking these scenarios down - makes sport so exciting and in particular, our sport when so many games can impact on each other. We're set for a great next two weeks to determine 5-8 on the finals ladder.

Just on that last point, it is still technically possible that Carlton win next game and miss finals - though we can all agree that it would be incredibly unlikely to happen. But it is possible. Saints will need to beat Brisbane at the Gabba, Swans will need to beat Demons at the SCG and the Giants will need to win by a certain margin to drop your percentage below the Swans who sneak into 8th.

Of course, I'm crazy posting a "finals scenario for Carlton" on the Carlton board as a Collingwood supporter but honestly, just consider me just an avid fan of this time of year when breaking down these scenarios.

Hard to see Gold Coast beating Carlton next week but the GWS game will be a cracker final match of the Home and Away season!

 

[Bletch]

Got to love breaking these scenarios down - makes sport so exciting and in particular, our sport when so many games can impact on each other. We're set for a great next two weeks to determine 5-8 on the finals ladder.

Just on that last point, it is still technically possible that Carlton win next game and miss finals - though we can all agree that it would be incredibly unlikely to happen. But it is possible. Saints will need to beat Brisbane at the Gabba, Swans will need to beat Demons at the SCG and the Giants will need to win by a certain margin to drop your percentage below the Swans who sneak into 8th.

Of course, I'm crazy posting a "finals scenario for Carlton" on the Carlton board as a Collingwood supporter but honestly, just consider me just an avid fan of this time of year when breaking down these scenarios.

Hard to see Gold Coast beating Carlton next week but the GWS game will be a cracker final match of the Home and Away season!

Not any more! Thanks Hawks.

 

[The Sultan]

Posted this last week, think it deserves another run

 

[ClarkeM]

Not any more! Thanks Hawks.

Very handy result for you guys.

 

[Malifice]

I've been playing around with the ladder predictor.

If the Crows beat the Swans (in Adelaide) next week, the only way we miss the 8 (regardless of any other results in the final 2 rounds), is if all other results go against us those two weeks, and Sydney defeats Melbourne in the final round and leapfrogs us on percentage.

Even if we lose both our remaining games.

Get on board the Crows train next week. We need them to smash the Swans.

If the Crows get up, then as long as the Swans dont smash the Dee's the week after, then all other results are moot and we make it.

Of course, we only need to win 1 ourselves to guarantee we get in. But if everything goes pearshaped, it's the Swans we need to keep an eye on.

 

[Malifice]

That said, if the Hawks pull off a miracle next week and beat Melbourne, and we roll the Suns, we'll actually be cheering Sydney on in the final round, because if they also roll Melbourne, we're playing GWS for a spot in the top 4.

 

[Bletch]

I've been playing around with the ladder predictor.

If the Crows beat the Swans (in Adelaide) next week, the only way we miss the 8 (regardless of any other results in the final 2 rounds), is if all other results go against us those two weeks, and Sydney defeats Melbourne in the final round and leapfrogs us on percentage.

Even if we lose both our remaining games.

Get on board the Crows train next week. We need them to smash the Swans.

If the Crows get up, then as long as the Swans dont smash the Dee's the week after, then all other results are moot and we make it.

Of course, we only need to win 1 ourselves to guarantee we get in. But if everything goes pearshaped, it's the Swans we need to keep an eye on.

Also want to look at what we need for a home final - would rather not be traveling to Sydney. Likelihood is that one win will be sufficient, but there are a few results that could see us drop to 7th. And yes, we're not guaranteed a finals spot yet - worst we can finish now is 9th (assuming Port finish the job on GWS).

 

[Malifice]

Also want to look at what we need for a home final - would rather not be traveling to Sydney. Likelihood is that one win will be sufficient, but there are a few results that could see us drop to 7th. And yes, we're not guaranteed a finals spot yet - worst we can finish now is 9th (assuming Port finish the job on GWS).

If the Suns roll us next week, then I'm tuning into the Crows game for sure.

If we lose to the Suns, and then Sydney do the Crows that same day, we're in a spot of bother.

 

[agro]

I think we’re safe.

 

[Malifice]

I think we’re safe.

We need to lose both games, and for other results to go against us.

But after last year, Im wary of the fat lady singing just yet.

 

[agro]

 

[Earls Smother]

I think we can win the whole damn thing…

Being in form at the right time of year is massive.

Our second half of the year has been chalk and cheese compared to earlier on. Who else has improved? Most of the good sides were better earlier in the year and have regressed to varying extents. I could make a case for 2 other sides - Melbourne, who we just beat with at least 4 very good players to add, and Hawthorn who are irrelevant in a finals sense.

We've been forced to test our depth, which has stood up admirably. This has had the unexpected benefit of "resting" a few key components. Look at Boyd today in the magoos - freshened and ready to go if we need him.

All we need is an MCG final week 1 and the tsunami will grow. We'll have to win once interstate in either week 2 or the prelim. If we overcome that, watch out.

 

[Malifice]

All we need is an MCG final week 1 and the tsunami will grow. We'll have to win once interstate in either week 2 or the prelim. If we overcome that, watch out.

If we win both remaining games and Melbourne lose both of them (Hawks and Swans) we'll finish 4th and likely stay in Melbourne.

And even if we don't, but still make the 8, it's possible (if Collingwood and Melbourne finish 1 and 2) that we stay in Melbourne the entire finals series as well.

Most likely outcome (should we make it) is an interstate final somewhere though.

 

[Earls Smother]

If we win both remaining games and Melbourne lose both of them (Hawks and Swans) we'll finish 4th and likely stay in Melbourne.

And even if we don't, but still make the 8, it's possible (if Collingwood and Melbourne finish 1 and 2) that we stay in Melbourne the entire finals series as well.

Most likely outcome (should we make it) is an interstate final somewhere though.

Yeah I was generalising, but your scenarios are highly improbable. If Melbourne and Collingwood finish 1,2, we would be very fortunate if the results went our way.

 

[Malifice]

If Melbourne and Collingwood finish 1,2, we would be very fortunate if the results went our way.

Not really. We just need the Victorian top 2 team on our final side of the draw to win (for a home prelim), and the other one on the opposite side to lose (for a home qualifier).

But yeah it also requires a 1/2 finish from Melbourne and the Pies before it even gets off the ground.

 

[Rustica]

If we win both remaining games and Melbourne lose both of them (Hawks and Swans) we'll finish 4th and likely stay in Melbourne.

And even if we don't, but still make the 8, it's possible (if Collingwood and Melbourne finish 1 and 2) that we stay in Melbourne the entire finals series as well.

Most likely outcome (should we make it) is an interstate final somewhere though.

If we finish 5th

We want a Collingwood v Melbourne qualifier which means we would play the loser in the semis.

This would mean we would be traveling to either the Gabba or Adelaide oval for a prelim before returning back to the G for the big dance.

Bring. It. On!

 

[Earls Smother]

Not really. We just need the Victorian top 2 team on our final side of the draw to win (for a home prelim), and the other one on the opposite side to lose (for a home qualifier).

Yeah I know that, but we would be fortunate (and gratefully take it) if that happened.

Both Vic based clubs would be odds on to win those games.

 

[Malifice]

If we finish 5th

We want a Collingwood v Melbourne qualifier which means we would play the loser in the semis.

Not quite.

If Melbourne and the Pies finish 1 and 2, they play Port/ Brisbane in the qualifiers.

Presume Pies win Q1, and Melbourne lose Q2.

We then win our elimination final (at the G) and play the loser out of Q2 (Melbourne, so at the G).

We win that and we then jump over to the other side for the Prelim and play the winner of Q1 (Pies, so at the G).

The GF is at the G as well obviously but would then almost certainly be vs one of Brisbane or Port, who (if we made it that far) we would be raging favorites to beat.

We just need the Vic side (on our Prelim side) to win, and the Vic side (from our Qualifier side) to lose in week 1 of the finals.

We'd prefer to not have to win a cutthroat final vs Port in Adelaide, or Brisbane at the Gabba if it can be avoided.

 

[juzza316]

I'm still sweating about actually making it let alone playing interstate. hopefully it's put to bed this weekend and can start doing the scenarios.

 

[kreuze_missile]

I couldn't imagine a less enjoyable experience than having to watch a round 24 "must win to play finals" game.

Surely we smash GC on the weekend to secure our spot. Comfortably account for GWS at Marvel.

And roll into finals on a 10 game streak, a healthy list, and some pretty ******* grand ambitions.