Geelong and Carlton - Can they go all the way?

[Walter H White]

I think there is an interesting discussion here around whether teams can win the flag from outside the top 4. We all know the Dogs won in 2016, but that seems to be accepted as the exception to the rule, rather than the rule.

The question to me is whether it's (near on) impossible to win outside the top 4 because you need to win 4 straight knockout games? Or whether it's because the teams from 5-8 are usually there for a reason (and thus not one of the best teams that year). I'd argue it's a bit of both, but probably more of the latter.

Aside from Dogs 2016, when has a team 5-8 been considered one of the 2-3 best teams in it? The only example I can think of off the top of my head is Swans 2017, who went 0-6 to start the season but then only lost 2 more games to finish 14-8. A lot of pundits were saying that Swans team were one of, if not, the best team in it heading into finals (they ended up losing semi final comfortably to Geelong who lost comfortably to Adelaide in a prelim).

In regards to Geelong this year, there are definitely some parallels. Our win-loss at this stage is probably below our quality due to a slow start to the season (0-3) and then significant injuries mid-season where we lost 4 of 6 games. Some pundits (e.g. Kane Cornes) said we are the 2nd best team in it after last weekend's win over Essendon. I think it's too early to say and we'll have a better idea over the next month or so as Cats have a really tough run coming up.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Come back to me if I'm wrong about this September

Wow, really going out on a limb saying the team coming 5th won't win the flag.

I suppose everyone needs an easy win here and there.

 

[timokane]

cats no will be knocked out week 1 of finals and blues wont make finals and end in 12th spot

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

cats no will be knocked out week 1 of finals and blues wont make finals and end in 12th spot

Your predictions have been on fire of late.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton AND Geelong to go all the way?

I'm going to predict no....

 

[Oscarman]

I haven't given up on MFC finishing 2nd yet, and am pretty confident of finishing 3rd.

 

[My Tilly]

Both no chance.

 

[Blue1980]

Not sure why anyone thought cats were suddenly a flag chance.

Seems the way with a reigning premier, always seen as “dangerous” regardless of form in the following season.

I could see them winning a final maybe. No different to the other sides in the 5th-15th range.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Geelong - no

Carlton - yes (will win the flag)

 

[My Tilly]

Not sure why anyone thought cats were suddenly a flag chance.

Seems the way with a reigning premier, always seen as “dangerous” regardless of form in the following season.

I could see them winning a final maybe. No different to the other sides in the 5th-15th range.

Depends who we get first week.
I would like our chances against Carlton at the G.
As too St Kilda.
I think it's difficult to beat a team three times in the one season so Essendon probably produce the inexplicable result. Tends to usually go that way with this game.

GWS are a worry. They setup well against us so it would be difficult to win that one.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Cats are cooked, midfield is paper thin this year

 

[Truetiger]

Can either Geelong or Carlton go all the way? Both teams are in-form right now and the teams I am scared to play against come September

Carlton definitely not. This should be on Bay13.

 

[My Tilly]

Changing my view on the Blues.
They certainly can go all the way as they are the form side of the competition and that is all that matters at this time of the year.

Geelong won't make finals after today's loss.

Incredible comeback by Carlton. Not many could see this transpiring a month ago.

 

[Blue1980]

Carlton definitely not. This should be on Bay13.

Well, about that…

 

[Blue1980]

Changing my view on the Blues.
They certainly can go all the way as they are the form side of the competition and that is all that matters at this time of the year.

Geelong won't make finals after today's loss.

Incredible comeback by Carlton. Not many could see this transpiring a month ago.

GWS are in similarly good form, won 7 on the trot.

 

[My Tilly]

GWS are in similarly good form, won 7 on the trot.

Yes they are but Carlton have the MCG experience and Curnow's the best key forward in the game.
I think that round 24 against GWS will decide who finishes 5th with a home final at stake.

 

[STPer18]

GWS and Carlton are the two form teams of the comp, the top four are wobbling a little. Could be one of the more unpredictable finals series in a while.