Grand Final runners-up curse

[BigVic]

Since 2013 when Hawthorn backed up from a losing grand final and winning a premiership, the team that lost a grand final has endured a slide down the ladder the following year. Will the Lions buck the trend in '24 or will this continue.

Fremantle

in 2013-6th in 2014
Sydney

in 2014-5th in 2015
West Coast

in 2015-7th in 2016
Sydney

in 2016-5th in 2017
Adelaide

in 2017-12th (no finals) in 2018
Collingwood

in 2018-4th in 2019
GWS

in 2019-10th (no finals) in 2020
Geelong

in 2020-4th in 2021
Western Bulldogs

in 2021-8th in 2022
Sydney

in 2022-8th in 2023

 

[HotPiesWithSauce]

Since 2013 when Hawthorn backed up from a losing grand final and winning a premiership, the team that lost a grand final has endured a slide down the ladder the following year. Will the Lions buck the trend in '24 or will this continue.

Fremantle

in 2013-6th in 2014
Sydney

in 2014-5th in 2015
West Coast

in 2015-7th in 2016
Sydney

in 2016-5th in 2017
Adelaide

in 2017-12th (no finals) in 2018
Collingwood

in 2018-4th in 2019
GWS

in 2019-10th (no finals) in 2020
Geelong

in 2020-4th in 2021
Western Bulldogs

in 2021-8th in 2022
Sydney

in 2022-8th in 2023

It's extremely difficult to make back to back grand finals, so odds are they won't make it next year

I can definitely see a top 4 finish though

 

[Ice-Wolf]

You should be more worried about the Premiers Curse.

Geelong Premiers in 2022 - 12th (no finals) 2023

 

[South of the Yarra]

You should be more worried about the Premiers Curse.

Geelong Premiers in 2022 - 12th (no finals) 2023

I know it's been a 57-year curse for you.

 

[eddiesmith]

It's extremely difficult to make back to back grand finals, so odds are they won't make it next year

I can definitely see a top 4 finish though

With 11 home games, it’s pretty hard for them to not make top 4 unless they really fall off a cliff.

 

[Angus Young]

I think Brisbane will be fine next year.

 

[ibd77]

They will probably start the season off slow, so if you get the Gabba game in the first month of the season. You are a good chance of stealing an unlikely win. It will be interesting to see who gets drawn for those games.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Went a little further back and it's a bit kinder to those who lost the previous year. From 2001 to 2013, 5 of the GF losers made the GF the year after, for 3 victories.

Certainly looks a lot better than recent history. What's even more intriuging is most of the returnees only lost by a small margin the year prior, where as those who did not return, typically lost quite comfortably.

2001: Melbourne - 11th
2002: Essendon - 5th (SF)
2003: Collingwood - 2nd (GF)
2004: Collingwood - 13th
2005: Brisbane - 11th
2006: West Coast - 1st (Premiers)
2007: Sydney - 7th (EF)
2008: Port - 13th
2009: Geelong - 2nd (Premiers)
2010: St Kilda - 3rd (GF)
2011: St Kilda - 6th (EF)
2012: Collingwood - 4th (PF)
2013: Hawthorn - 1st (Premiers)

I am biased but I'd be very surprised if we are not in the conversation again next year. Not saying we're bang on for the flag but I'd be disappointed to see a massive drop off considering the list demographic we have.

 

[Freomaniac]

With 11 home games, it’s pretty hard for them to not make top 4 unless they really fall off a cliff.

I see Brisbane dropping in 2024.... to 5th or 6th with a home final

 

[Feraligatr]

Lions will be fine. I'm happy to back them again for at least another prelim.

I would love to see them win a GF, so they are my 2024 "if my team can't" team.

 

[Golden_6]

Lions won’t be going anywhere. They have no one of note over 30 with Gunston, Rich & Lyons barely contributing this season and Zorko is already on a much reduced role.

 

[CarterS]

They will probably start the season off slow, so if you get the Gabba game in the first month of the season. You are a good chance of stealing an unlikely win. It will be interesting to see who gets drawn for those games.

Without checking the stats I think we've played Port in alternating home/away games Round 1 the last few years, so likely be home vs Port Round 1.

 

[StillAtLarge]

I can see them starting 2024 well then getting annihilated in the gf rematch and never really recovering

 

[benji2]

Lions will be Top 4 again, no worries. It’s only the teams that get thrashed in the GF that seem to drop off badly the following year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[adammania9]

There’s a curse on teams that lose by 40+. The last 14 to do so did not win a final the next year, or failed to play finals altogether.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Since 2013 when Hawthorn backed up from a losing grand final and winning a premiership, the team that lost a grand final has endured a slide down the ladder the following year. Will the Lions buck the trend in '24 or will this continue.

Fremantle

in 2013-6th in 2014
Sydney

in 2014-5th in 2015
West Coast

in 2015-7th in 2016
Sydney

in 2016-5th in 2017
Adelaide

in 2017-12th (no finals) in 2018
Collingwood

in 2018-4th in 2019
GWS

in 2019-10th (no finals) in 2020
Geelong

in 2020-4th in 2021
Western Bulldogs

in 2021-8th in 2022
Sydney

in 2022-8th in 2023

FWIW, when watching the GF (granted I wasn't paying enormous attention to it) I kept feeling that Brisbane aren't a great team.

They have never felt, to me, like a worthy premiership team.

I wouldn't be surprised if they fell away next year.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Lions will be Top 4 again, no worries. It’s only the teams that get thrashed in the GF that seem to drop off badly the following year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

It was a pretty convincing beat down though.

 

[Dazb86]

They might start slow. Happens most years

 

[Blues177]

They will probably start the season off slow, so if you get the Gabba game in the first month of the season. You are a good chance of stealing an unlikely win. It will be interesting to see who gets drawn for those games.

C’wood usually play at the Gabba every Good Friday eve - March 28 next year. Early Easter.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Lions will be absolutely pissed after losing in such heartbreaking fashion and will play with a ruthless edge to them throughout the 2024 season. They'll make it back to the Grand Final I'm just not sure whether we win or they do imo. I think we could see a reverse sequence where the Pies win b2b against the Lions like they did to us in 02&03

As of right now though I'd have to predict that the Lions make ammends and go one better in 2024.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Lions will be absolutely pissed after losing in such heartbreaking fashion and will play with a ruthless edge to them throughout the 2024 season. They'll make it back to the Grand Final I'm just not sure whether we win or they do imo. I think we could see a reverse sequence where the Pies win b2b against the Lions like they did to us in 02&03

As of right now though I'd have to predict that the Lions make ammends and go one better in 2024.

But Collingwood could have/should have won by 7-8 goals had they taken their chances.

The 4 point margin heavily flattered Brisbane.


The biggest factor for Brisbane in terms of how they go next year, is whether they get sucked in by the 4 point final margin and think they were close - or if they face reality and accept that they were basically a 7-8 goal worse side than the best team.

If they do the former, they're in trouble.

 

[owen87]

But Collingwood could have/should have won by 7-8 goals had they taken their chances.

The 4 point margin heavily flattered Brisbane.


The biggest factor for Brisbane in terms of how they go next year, is whether they get sucked in by the 4 point final margin and think they were close - or if they face reality and accept that they were basically a 7-8 goal worse side than the best team.

If they do the former, they're in trouble.

Expected 14 point margin

Collingwood also should have lost to GWS and Melbourne by your argument

 

[Pancakes]

They will finish top four almost certainly.
Very good list with a fantastic home ground advantage, things would have to go very wrong for them not to finish top four.

The danger lies if they finish 3rd or 4th and play a quality side at the MCG in week one.

Obviously they would beat the Dees (fallen to bits and nothing more than a meme for choking now) and the Blues (Just leave Curnow free and have an extra man around the ground, you know that overrated squib can't hurt you in a big game).
But Pies, Cats, Dogs, Tigers would all be very comfortable beating the Lions in week one at the MCG.
Then the road to the GF becomes a lot harder for them.

 

[Mofra]

Since 2013 when Hawthorn backed up from a losing grand final and winning a premiership, the team that lost a grand final has endured a slide down the ladder the following year. Will the Lions buck the trend in '24 or will this continue.

Fremantle

in 2013-6th in 2014
Sydney

in 2014-5th in 2015
West Coast

in 2015-7th in 2016
Sydney

in 2016-5th in 2017
Adelaide

in 2017-12th (no finals) in 2018
Collingwood

in 2018-4th in 2019
GWS

in 2019-10th (no finals) in 2020
Geelong

in 2020-4th in 2021
Western Bulldogs

in 2021-8th in 2022
Sydney

in 2022-8th in 2023

Yes. And there seems to be a correlation to the size of the defeat too. Adelaide, GWS & Bulldogs slid the furthest and had the biggest losses.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Expected 14 point margin

Collingwood also should have lost to GWS and Melbourne by your argument

Collingwood definitely should have/could have lost to GWS.

GWS were the form team in the comp IMO. I would have been very confident of GWS beating Brisbane in a GF.