Opinion Is father-son access going to heavily dictate the next decade of premiers?

[Lsta062]

Good question. I know we let Jason go at the end of 2021 when our academy was overhauled and I believe Owen continued playing junior footy at Surfers Paradise in 2022 but I can't seem to find anything on him in 2023. Maybe he quit footy altogether because his old man was no longer involved?

Ah man. I think that’s what’s happened with our father-son prospect this year too.

I guess we’ll have to wait until 2025 for a father-son prospect that’ll actually make it to the draft.

 

[pz5151]

Unpopular take: it’s no less unfair to reward teams for being crap with high draft picks than it is for sons of champion players to be drafted for unders.

 

[GC2015]

Ah man. I think that’s what’s happened with our father-son prospect this year too.

I guess we’ll have to wait until 2025 for a father-son prospect that’ll actually make it to the draft.

To be honest, I don't think Owen was ever seriously talked about as a draftable prospect anyway. Entirely possible there was some nepotism going on and he was taking part in the academy mainly because the old man was the coach. Now Jason has left it would appear Owen is no longer involved which backs up the theory. Either that or he just lost interest in footy.

Maurice Rioli Jr was a decent pick up for you guys though. Funnily enough, I think he was also academy eligible for the Suns in 2020 as the Darwin zone was given to the club in 2019. So Maurice Jr had his choice of the Suns academy, Richmond F/S and Fremantle F/S but chose to go to the Tigers.

Louis Kellaway made the South Australian U16s team this year so he's your best bet for 2025 for your next F/S selection.

 

[Lsta062]

To be honest, I don't think Owen was ever seriously talked about as a draftable prospect anyway. Entirely possible there was some nepotism going on and he was taking part in the academy mainly because the old man was the coach. Now Jason has left it would appear Owen is no longer involved which backs up the theory. Either that or he just lost interest in footy.

Maurice Rioli Jr was a decent pick up for you guys though. Funnily enough, I think he was also academy eligible for the Suns in 2020 as the Darwin zone was given to the club in 2019. So Maurice Jr had his choice of the Suns academy, Richmond F/S and Fremantle F/S but chose to go to the Tigers.

Louis Kellaway made the South Australian U16s team this year so he's your best bet for 2025 for your next F/S selection.

Yeah it’s Kellaway that we’re hoping for. But they’ll probably change the rules by then, so we’re going to have to pay up a decent amount should he be a highly-ranked prospect.

 

[GC2015]

Yeah it’s Kellaway that we’re hoping for. But they’ll probably change the rules by then, so we’re going to have to pay up a decent amount should he be a highly-ranked prospect.

Also makes it difficult for Richmond to ensure he develops to his potential when he's based in Adelaide. It'd be easier if he was in Melbourne and could head to Punt Rd for training on a regular basis.

 

[Caligo]

Unpopular take: it’s no less unfair to reward teams for being crap with high draft picks than it is for sons of champion players to be drafted for unders.

That is indeed a highly unpopular take.

Keeping the competition is a good thing. The draft plays its role achieving that. Giving top prospects for unders because they happen to have already had the incredible advantage of having pro athlete dads isn't.

 

[darcytiger]

For every Richo and Joel Bowden there’s a Tom Roach and David Bourke.

 

[darcytiger]

To be honest, I don't think Owen was ever seriously talked about as a draftable prospect anyway. Entirely possible there was some nepotism going on and he was taking part in the academy mainly because the old man was the coach. Now Jason has left it would appear Owen is no longer involved which backs up the theory. Either that or he just lost interest in footy.

Maurice Rioli Jr was a decent pick up for you guys though. Funnily enough, I think he was also academy eligible for the Suns in 2020 as the Darwin zone was given to the club in 2019. So Maurice Jr had his choice of the Suns academy, Richmond F/S and Fremantle F/S but chose to go to the Tigers.

Louis Kellaway made the South Australian U16s team this year so he's your best bet for 2025 for your next F/S selection.

Maurice stinks. If his name was Maurice Smith he’d still be playing barefoot on Tiwi.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

The obsession over what is pure equality of opportunity is baffling and shows how little most people understand about the concepts of equality.

Father sons is pure random and genetics… all teams have elite past players with great genetics… the only teams not around long enough yet are GCS and GWS, which is just simply a matter of a few more decades.

Regardless it doesn’t even matter too much, most sides barely have any father sons on their list let alone dominating from it. It pales in comparison to the huge advantage of the northern academies.

 

[GC2015]

Maurice stinks. If his name was Maurice Smith he’d still be playing barefoot on Tiwi.

Bit harsh. I reckon he's going okay for a 21 year old taken with pick 51.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Casey Voss, Tom Hird and Jett Buckley.

Generational fathers, none of them made it. It's a total crap shoot and every club will eventually get fortunate in due time.

Prior to the Ashcroft boys (And Fletcher), the last good father-son the Lions got was Jonathan Brown in 1999. Took us 20+ years since to finally get something out of F/S, just turns out that it's all happened at once with Ashcroft x2 and Fletcher.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

I know you're joking but this does actually happen in the northern states. Triple premiership Lion Darryl White has two sons who played footy in Brisbane when they were younger but chose to pursue careers in basketball instead. One of them ended up playing for the Australian national team.

It happens everywhere. The Dogs just drafted FS Jordan Croft, but his twin brother was lost to footy and plays volleyball. Nothing to do with being a northern or traditional football state

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

I'll give you Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

but people are kidding themselves by putting Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

in that mix.

No other club in the AFL rated Josh a top 50 pick, we matched a bid at pick 57. Not to mention we have burned our share of picks on dud father sons eg Brown bros, will Kelly

20

Will Kelly

Age

23

Ht

194cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

1.0

2star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

etc

 

[hoianbulldog]

Slightly off topic but how many father sons both won premiership?

Silvagni, Daicos's.........and?

 

[Caligo]

Slightly off topic but how many father sons both won premiership?

Silvagni, Daicos's.........and?

Kennedy

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Unpopular take: it’s no less unfair to reward teams for being crap with high draft picks than it is for sons of champion players to be drafted for unders.

No it's just a bad take. The draft is literally there as a mechanism of facilitating a rebuild, so all the rich clubs don't sign the best talent. Father sons destroy that very mechanism of the draft which is to increase fairness.

 

[hoianbulldog]

Kennedy

Did father Kennedy play in a premiership?

 

[Caligo]

Did father Kennedy play in a premiership?

Yep. 4 of em. 83, 86, 88 and 89. Then Josh in 2012.

Different clubs obviously.

 

[GC2015]

Slightly off topic but how many father sons both won premiership?

Silvagni, Daicos's.........and?

Priority access premiership players in the academy era (2013-)

Father-son (10)
2023: Darcy Moore, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Tom Mitchell (4)
2022: Tom Hawkins, Jed Bews (2)
2021: Jack Viney (1)
2017-2020: N/A
2016: Zaine Cordy, Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore (3)
2013-2015: N/A

Next Generation Academy (1)
2023: Isaac Quaynor (1)
2013-2022: N/A

Northern Academy (0)
2013-2023 N/A

May as well throw the remaining 14 seasons of this century in as well...

Father-son (18)
2012: Josh Kennedy, Rhyce Shaw (2)
2011: Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (2)
2010: Travis Cloke, Heath Shaw (2)
2009: Gary Ablett Jr, Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2008: N/A
2007: Nathan Ablett, Gary Ablett Jr, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2006: Ben Cousins (1)
2005: Nick Davis (1)
2003: Jonathan Brown (1)
2002: Jonathan Brown (1)
2001: Jonathan Brown (1)
2000: Dustin Fletcher (1)

As you can see, it's pretty common for father-son picks to win premierships and has happened 28 times in the last 24 seasons.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Priority access premiership players in the academy era (2013-)

Father-son (10)
2023: Darcy Moore, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Tom Mitchell (4)
2022: Tom Hawkins, Jed Bews (2)
2021: Jack Viney (1)
2017-2020: N/A
2016: Zaine Cordy, Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore (3)
2013-2015: N/A

Next Generation Academy (1)
2023: Isaac Quaynor (1)
2013-2022: N/A

Northern Academy (0)
2013-2023 N/A

May as well throw the remaining 14 seasons of this century in as well...

Father-son (18)
2012: Josh Kennedy, Rhyce Shaw (2)
2011: Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (2)
2010: Travis Cloke, Heath Shaw (2)
2009: Gary Ablett Jr, Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2008: N/A
2007: Nathan Ablett, Gary Ablett Jr, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2006: Ben Cousins (1)
2005: Nick Davis (1)
2003: Jonathan Brown (1)
2002: Jonathan Brown (1)
2001: Jonathan Brown (1)
2000: Dustin Fletcher (1)

As you can see, it's pretty common for father-son picks to win premierships and has happened 28 times in the last 24 seasons.

It muddies the water a bit to include Tom Mitchell, Rhyce Shaw (2012) and Nick Davis as they didnt win flags with the FS club.

 

[owen87]

The obsession over what is pure equality of opportunity is baffling and shows how little most people understand about the concepts of equality.

Father sons is pure random and genetics… all teams have elite past players with great genetics… the only teams not around long enough yet are GCS and GWS, which is just simply a matter of a few more decades.

Regardless it doesn’t even matter too much, most sides barely have any father sons on their list let alone dominating from it. It pales in comparison to the huge advantage of the northern academies.

GAJ and Hawkins as F/S players didn't exactly hurt Geelong's premiership aspirations though.

Nor has Moore and Daicos x 2 hurt Collingwoods, especially given they got Daicos in that draft they'd completely ****ed their list and had to offload Grundy, Treloar and Stephenson for peanuts.

When the key to a successful list by and large is nailing a few drafts in a row, getting guaranteed access to high-end players helps that nicely.

Some clubs have had shocking luck with their F/S talent basically being rubbish, whereas others have had the good fortune to get some quality F/S players in a nice little block of time.

Compare that to say Essendon where we had Jobe Watson and Joe Daniher who were both very good players in their own right, but drafted a decade apart which meant it never really tipped the balance of the list significantly enough.

 

[juss]

We saw the massive influence Darcy Moore and the Daicos boys had on Collingwood winning the flag this year and one could make a strong argument that a healthy Will Ashcroft on Grand Final day would have flipped that premiership in Brisbane's favour. Is this going to be the trend moving forward? The club that gets the luckiest with the F/S rule (i.e top 10 picks) is in the best position to win a flag?

I'd even potentially put my club in this boat with Jason Horne-Francis, who technically wasn't a F/S pick, but was heavily linked to Port because of Fabian and of course ended up at Alberton after one season at the wooden spoon Roos. He joins the club and suddenly Port go from 11th to 3rd on the ladder.

My understanding is father-sons for Brisbane (L.Ashcroft), Adelaide (T.Welsh) and Carlton (B.Camporeale) are all rated as top 10 picks for next year.

Discuss.

Moore, Daicos x 2 is certainly a massive factor for the Pies. Without F/S they don't get all those 3 and they don't win the flag without them IMO.

It's the F/S + NGA + Academy + FA compo + PP or whatever else benefit you get that adds up. It's usually not one extra player that's the difference or not, but if you can stack a few wins from the system (e.g. the multiple F/S picks mentioned above, and I believe Quaynor was also some sort of discount?) then it makes a difference.

Geelong stacking the Ablett, Hawkins, Scarlett as F/S is probably another example too.

I suspect in time Gold Coast and possibly other Northern state clubs stacking Academy picks will lead to the same, and potentially the Bulldogs who have lucked out with a few F/S and the NGA Ugle-Hagan gift might stack too.

Summary is that for it make a premiership influence, it likely needs to be more than one player, and it needs to occur roughly in the same list window, and it generally applies more to talented players rather than those taken deeper in the draft. E.g. I don't think anyone is losing sleep over a player bid on at pick 30 being taken for a discount.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Moore, Daicos x 2 is certainly a massive factor for the Pies. Without F/S they don't get all those 3 and they don't win the flag without them IMO.

Whist true to be fair NO ONE even thought Josh Daicos was even National Draft worthy when he went through. The other two sure, but lets not bunch Josh in with those two.

 

[juss]

Whist true to be fair NO ONE even thought Josh Daicos was even National Draft worthy when he went through. The other two sure, but lets not bunch Josh in with those two.

It's relevant to highlight that it's not about one pick or player, it's the stacking that has the biggest influence so I think including him as a F/S is appropriate. He's not the showpiece of the point, but he's in the example as he was cheaper than he would have been which is what it's all about. Discounts all add up.

 

[Caligo]

It's relevant to highlight that it's not about one pick or player, it's the stacking that has the biggest influence so I think including him as a F/S is appropriate. He's not the showpiece of the point, but he's in the example as he was cheaper than he would have been which is what it's all about. Discounts all add up.

He wasn't cheaper though. He was the exact price he would have been had he not been a f/s. Unless of course you think somebody would have bid on him if he wasn't a f/s, which is unknowable but probably unlikely I suspect.