Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[Crimson Azure]

That chart only looks at team ranking which means you need to be in the top six for offense. To leapfrog into the top 6 we would need to kick more than the current differential plus whatever they kick this week.

Current PF is
1. Sydney: 913
2. GWS: 882
3. Dogs: 862
4. Carlton: 858
5. Geelong: 854
6. Port: 820
7. Collingwood: 795
8. Gold Coast: 758
9. Essendon: 739
10. Melbourne: 735

So we basically need to kick 85 points more than Port and hope Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon don't do the same.

We'd need to kick at least 160 for it to be any chance of happening.

Okay, probably not gonna happen then. We don’t punish dud teams like team like the Bulldogs do.

 

[Crimson Azure]

The dream would be a reversal of the 2013 game where Eagles give a standing ovation when they are ten points down at half time before we proceed to win by 100.

All the noise that would be made as the seats slap shut when we stand would be more noise than Melbourne fans are capable of generating.

 

[Bluelegs]

Okay, probably not gonna happen then. We don’t punish dud teams like team like the Bulldogs do.

Ironically the only time we've kicked 100+ was against the Dogs and it was pretty much the only time we've gone in with a shorter forward line.

 

[Dancing Potato]

Melbourne get the ball, they pass, pass, pass, pass.

No score

View attachment 1989408

Those horrible handball chains we get into in the forward 50.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Yeah we have scored well against dud teams for the most part over the past couple of years, few stinkers but tried to attack for the most part. Its when we play the good teams, Goody's bum hole tightens up and he reverts back to his fk scoring just win the inside 50 count and keep the opposition below 65 points ways.

 

[Lord Nev]

We’re 28 wins and 20 losses from our past 48 games. BUT IF YOU EXCLUDE FINALS THAT GOES TO 28 WINS AND 16 LOSSES!

Amazingly random choice of amount of games, wonder why you'd pick 48 as your random number?

We're also 58 and 24 over our past 82 games. Just picking a random number of course.

Out of curiosity, given you've gone back to round 11, 2022, what were the games before that like in terms of win/loss?

 

[Scythe94]

Amazingly random choice of amount of games, wonder why you'd pick 48 as your random number?

We're also 58 and 24 over our past 82 games. Just picking a random number of course.

Presuming that stat is referring to the time since the 17-win streak ended in 2022.

 

[Lord Nev]

Presuming that stat is referring to the time since the 17-win streak ended in 2022.

Yep, edited my comment above. Round 11, 2022 seems a fairly random starting point to start caring about win/loss records... Wonder why?

 

[Scythe94]

Yep, edited my comment above. Round 11, 2022 seems a fairly random starting point to start caring about win/loss records... Wonder why?

I won't speak on behalf of JK, but plenty of people think that's when our gameplan was 'found out' and we fell back to the pack a bit.

Realistically, after the flag, those first 10 rounds were remarkably soft in terms of fixturing (didn't play a team above 7th). Still have to win the games, sure, but Freo, Sydney and Collingwood were our first three legitimate tests that year, and we lost all three.

If I was to pinpoint a time when I felt like we were no longer the best team in the comp, that would probably be it.

 

[Lord Nev]

I won't speak on behalf of JK, but plenty of people think that's when our gameplan was 'found out' and we fell back to the pack a bit.

Realistically, after the flag, those first 10 rounds were remarkably soft in terms of fixturing (didn't play a team above 7th). Still have to win the games, sure, but Freo, Sydney and Collingwood were our first three legitimate tests that year, and we lost all three.

If I was to pinpoint a time when I felt like we were no longer the best team in the comp, that would probably be it.

So we suddenly got 'found out' halfway through the season after winning a flag? I don't know I buy that. I wouldn't have thought our game plan was that innovative, ground breaking and surprising that it took until that exact week for opposition coaches to work it out. It was pretty simple IMO, and everyone here complains about that style because of that fact. Plus, we were still top 4 in 2022 and 2023, so can't have been 'found out' that badly.

Just find it pretty disingenuous to pick a number to make the narrative go in your favour as much as possible. And that's aside from the fact that it's not really relevant given the difference in personnel, on and off field, and game plan.

Personally I find our record this season, with different players, coaches and game plan, 'meh' enough to just use this current season as an example.

 

[Scythe94]

So we suddenly got 'found out' halfway through the season after winning a flag? I don't know I buy that. I wouldn't have thought our game plan was that innovative, ground breaking and surprising that it took until that exact week for opposition coaches to work it out. It was pretty simple IMO, and everyone here complains about that style because of that fact. Plus, we were still top 4 in 2022 and 2023, so can't have been 'found out' that badly.

Just find it pretty disingenuous to pick a number to make the narrative go in your favour as much as possible. And that's aside from the fact that it's not really relevant given the difference in personnel, on and off field, and game plan.

Personally I find our record this season, with different players, coaches and game plan, 'meh' enough to just use this current season as an example.

Not what I'm really saying. Teams would have went to work on how to attack against our defensive structure over the offseason, and the three first tests that we had in 2022 (top-six sides) resulted in losses. Bad teams could have 'found out' the gameplan, but that doesn't necessarily translate to wins (Hawthorn pushing us to the limit in Round 7 that year is a good example). There were enough red flags in those first 10 rounds to indicate we'd have issues with better opposition.

At the end of the day, every statistical range that gets used is subjective in its own way – JK was just using the same one from the OP of this thread.

I think a fairly good indicator though is our record against top-eight and bottom-10 teams since 2022:

• Top 8: 13 wins, 16 losses (44.8%)
• Bottom 10: 25 wins, 4 losses (86.2%)

That stat is why I'm not really too fussed about the start of 2022 – a 'flag window' hinges on your ability to beat good teams, especially come finals time. That's not something we've been able to do with any sort of consistency over the past 2.5 years, so I think questioning whether we're still in that window is pretty valid.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Amazingly random choice of amount of games, wonder why you'd pick 48 as your random number?

We're also 58 and 24 over our past 82 games. Just picking a random number of course.

Out of curiosity, given you've gone back to round 11, 2022, what were the games before that like in terms of win/loss?

 

[Lord Nev]

Not what I'm really saying. Teams would have went to work on how to attack against our defensive structure over the offseason, and the three first tests that we had in 2022 (top-six sides) resulted in losses. Bad teams could have 'found out' the gameplan, but that doesn't necessarily translate to wins (Hawthorn pushing us to the limit in Round 7 that year is a good example). There were enough red flags in those first 10 rounds to indicate we'd have issues with better opposition.

At the end of the day, every statistical range that gets used is subjective in its own way – JK was just using the same one from the OP of this thread.

I think a fairly good indicator though is our record against top-eight and bottom-10 teams since 2022:

• Top 8: 13 wins, 16 losses (44.8%)
• Bottom 10: 25 wins, 4 losses (86.2%)

That stat is why I'm not really too fussed about the start of 2022 – a 'flag window' hinges on your ability to beat good teams, especially come finals time. That's not something we've been able to do with any sort of consistency over the past 2.5 years, so I think questioning whether we're still in that window is pretty valid.

Yep that top 8 stat is WAY more relevant IMO. Appreciate you posting that.

But even that is not super relevant this year given the change of personnel and style IMO. This year is worth looking at on it's own merits as it's not the exact same side playing the same way as 22 and 23. That's not a defence btw, as I'm unimpressed by us so far this year.

I still don't agree with going back to a specific 'random' time at a round 11 game to suit your narrative of wins and losses though, and I'm not someone that believes in the 'found us out' catchphrase that gets thrown around. I find it pretty insulting to the 18 (at least) opposition strategy coaches in the league, especially with a simplistic style like ours was at that time. Really wasn't that hard to 'work out'.

Personally I've always felt the 2022 drop off was more about not managing players properly and pushing to hard on a selection strategy based on Burgess' skills when he wasn't there anymore. That's one of the reasons I'm starting to worry we still refuse to put that into practice despite talking about it now for 3 years straight.

 

[Scythe94]

Yep that top 8 stat is WAY more relevant IMO. Appreciate you posting that.

All good – to me, that's the most important one when discussing our flag window.

I still don't agree with going back to a specific 'random' time at a round 11 game to suit your narrative of wins and losses though, and I'm not someone that believes in the 'found us out' catchphrase that gets thrown around.

I get what you're saying, my view though is that I'm happy enough to discount/not place a lot of value on that 10-round stretch given that we didn't play anybody good (crazy generous fixturing considering we were coming off a flag, though some teams were worse than what would've been predicted).

Personally I've always felt the 2022 drop off was more about not managing players properly and pushing to hard on a selection strategy based on Burgess' skills when he wasn't there anymore. That's one of the reasons I'm starting to worry we still refuse to put that into practice despite talking about it now for 3 years straight.

Agree to an extent (we were very banged up in those two finals games); however, I think it's also fair to be critical of the gameplan – there was an obvious blueprint to beating us that year which revolved heavily around using the corridor, moving the ball by hand and hitting up short targets inside 50, rather than giving May, Lever and Petty the chance to peel off and intercept. In my opinion, that's when the stagnation started, as Goodwin was reluctant to ever really deviate from the strategy that won him a flag the year prior. That being said, I wasn't too mad after 2022 as it's very difficult to go B2B, and you couldn't be too harsh on Goodwin for backing his gameplan from 2021.

Where the frustration lies for me is that in the season and a half since, there have still been minimal alterations, despite the overall trends of the AFL moving toward aggressive ball movement and score launches from half-back, rather than simply trying to play a forward-half turnover game. That, and the fact that our forwards, plus the way we kick to them, remain pretty diabolical despite it being a glaring issue for years.

The fourth quarter against Geelong this year, and the Sydney/Richmond/Brisbane games from last year demonstrate to me that we have the scope to play daring, exciting football. Which in a way makes it even more frustrating when we grind out dull, uninspiring 60-50 games, despite having a list that, for the most part, should be a joy to watch.

 

[Dancing Potato]

Having Fritsch, Trac and Kozzy up forward but not trusting them to kick a winning score more often than not if we play fast and aggressively, frustrates me to no end.

Instead we stifle their ability and double down on an excellent defensive unit that we could also trust to defend us enough when we take risks.

 

[Demon Attack]

When was the last time we 'managed' players like the Cats do? Absolutely no way Max should be travelling to Perth this weekend, for example. We have a softish three weeks, should be resting blokes before our bye.

 

[Lord Nev]

I get what you're saying, my view though is that I'm happy enough to discount/not place a lot of value on that 10-round stretch given that we didn't play anybody good (crazy generous fixturing considering we were coming off a flag, though some teams were worse than what would've been predicted).

I mean, yeah, round 1 was a Grand Final rematch.

Agree to an extent (we were very banged up in those two finals games); however, I think it's also fair to be critical of the gameplan – there was an obvious blueprint to beating us that year which revolved heavily around using the corridor, moving the ball by hand and hitting up short targets inside 50, rather than giving May, Lever and Petty the chance to peel off and intercept. In my opinion, that's when the stagnation started, as Goodwin was reluctant to ever really deviate from the strategy that won him a flag the year prior. That being said, I wasn't too mad after 2022 as it's very difficult to go B2B, and you couldn't be too harsh on Goodwin for backing his gameplan from 2021.

The lack of evolution was definitely an issue, but that plays into what I'm saying doesn't it? It's not like it was a surprise, so I have my doubts that us being 'worked out' all of a sudden was a big factor.

Where the frustration lies for me is that in the season and a half since, there have still been minimal alterations, despite the overall trends of the AFL moving toward aggressive ball movement and score launches from half-back, rather than simply trying to play a forward-half turnover game. That, and the fact that our forwards, plus the way we kick to them, remain pretty diabolical despite it being a glaring issue for years.

I get where people are coming from in terms of speed of movement, but part of that is surely due to playing 3 tall forwards and them not being able to get back into the forward line quickly enough? We're still rated ok for scores from defensive half, so we're definitely setting up scores that way, but it's the amount of scoring that simply isn't high enough across the board. We score more from the defensive half than we do on turnovers this year.

I do wonder if perhaps we focus too much on our talls kicking the goals? Both us and Collingwood are poor for marks per inside 50, but about mid-table for goals per inside 50.

The fourth quarter against Geelong this year, and the Sydney/Richmond/Brisbane games from last year demonstrate to me that we have the scope to play daring, exciting football. Which in a way makes it even more frustrating when we grind out dull, uninspiring 60-50 games, despite having a list that, for the most part, should be a joy to watch.

I'm not sure I agree on our list, in terms of being a 'joy to watch' if you love high scoring, attacking footy. We're stacked in the backline, but then you compare it to the forward half and it's chalk and cheese. Not for lack of trying, we've apparently had numerous big cracks at the gun out of contract key forwards, but no luck.

Not to put too much on him (if he ever plays), but I have high hopes McAdam chances a bit for us in terms of forward setup. Track watchers during preseason were saying he was playing a bit like a 3rd tall, so you'd hope that means we end up seeing perhaps JVR, Petty and McAdam as the 3 "talls" as opposed to those two rotating with Disco, Brown, Fullarton et al. Wait and see I guess.

 

[Proper Gander]

Wow, then I could like half the club!

You’d only ever have to watch half the club (or less) unless you were to stream the Casey Giant Scorpions

 

[Proper Gander]

Tom Hawkins got 4 AAs after the age of 30 by simply being strong and leading at the kickers eyes. Insane how everyone else in the AFL is like nah that doesn't work get slim and run away from the kicker

To be strictly fair, Hawkins is sort of massive and strong so I don’t think our Fritta can fully adopt that methodology, but he has certainly shown he is well capable of using his agility and timing of his body on the defender not to run back towards goal (or even sometimes, the boundary) every single time

 

[Dancing Potato]

When was the last time we 'managed' players like the Cats do? Absolutely no way Max should be travelling to Perth this weekend, for example. We have a softish three weeks, should be resting blokes before our bye.

Why rest him? If he isn't injured / carrying a niggle then it's just unnecessary. We have a bye in a month.

Maintaining top four is on the line, we've been going averagely and we're playing the Eagles at home. They're a crap team, but it would be breathtaking arrogance to rest players unnecessarily.

 

[Demon Attack]

We've limped into September the last two years, I think we should be using games like this as an opportunity. Cats in 2022 did it perfectly with their older players.

Plus I chose Verrall as our next debutant

 

[Headless]

Plus I chose Verrall as our next debutant

Bad luck - it's McAdam!

 

[Proper Gander]

Bad luck - it's McAdam!

A real coup by you to get that one, Less

 

[Headless]

A real coup by you to get that one, Less

You should have seen how frantically I clicked "Quote" to ensure I made the quip first.

 

[Toump Ass]