Numerous Tasmanian prospects

[Lingsface]

With the Tasmanian team set to be in the AFL in the next few years and there being about 4-5 potential top 40 picks from there and 2 top 10 picks, do you think that teams will lean towards the Tasmanian if it’s line ball knowing that they may have enormous trade value in 3-4 years time when they search is on for a hometown hero?

 

[Engimal v3]

If I'm Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

, I'm making sure my next contract ends just as the Tasmanian team comes in

 

[spudmaster]

With the Tasmanian team set to be in the AFL in the next few years and there being about 4-5 potential top 40 picks from there and 2 top 10 picks, do you think that teams will lean towards the Tasmanian if it’s line ball knowing that they may have enormous trade value in 3-4 years time when they search is on for a hometown hero?

My concern with that thinking is what draft concessions will the team receive? If they're able to freely sign a player from each club who isn't in the top, say five paid players perhaps at a club, then they'd be an obvious target for poaching. Also, if traded in that initial year or two, draft currency from trades may be diluted if the best kids have been able to be prelisted the year prior etc.
I understand your thinking, however.

 

[Lingsface]

My concern with that thinking is what draft concessions will the team receive? If they're able to freely sign a player from each club who isn't in the top, say five paid players perhaps at a club, then they'd be an obvious target for poaching. Also, if traded in that initial year or two, draft currency from trades may be diluted if the best kids have been able to be prelisted the year prior etc.
I understand your thinking, however.

Yes it is all dependent on what they are given the rights to do. If they are given a lot of top picks will be interesting to see if they can use them for trading for players and do they get one free shot at a marquee player.

 

[HaroLad]

Who drafts a player with the intention of trading them years later?

Dumb

 

[PhatBoy]

Who drafts a player with the intention of trading them years later?

Dumb

A team at or near the top.

If you’re a team like, say, Brisbane, who has been around the mark for a while and should be for a few more years, you won’t get great hands at the draft but what you might be able to do is find a good Tassie kid. If he becomes a superstar then fantastic you’ve either got a superstar to play for your team as it tries to avoid ‘the drop’ and stay relevant, or has huge trade currency, or even if he becomes a decent AFL best 22 player but not someone indispensable, he can help you enhance your draft hand as you either try to stay competitive, or start your next rebuild.

 

[HaroLad]

A team at or near the top.

If you’re a team like, say, Brisbane, who has been around the mark for a while and should be for a few more years, you won’t get great hands at the draft but what you might be able to do is find a good Tassie kid. If he becomes a superstar then fantastic you’ve either got a superstar to play for your team as it tries to avoid ‘the drop’ and stay relevant, or has huge trade currency, or even if he becomes a decent AFL best 22 player but not someone indispensable, he can help you enhance your draft hand as you either try to stay competitive, or start your next rebuild.

You’re right

 

[Jeremias]

I don't think it will have much - if any - impact on decision making at recruiting level.

 

[Lingsface]

Who drafts a player with the intention of trading them years later?

Dumb

Also even if it’s a coin flip between 2 top line players it’s a safe certainty he either becomes a gun or an ok player that has trade value.

 

[SnusCG]

I don't think it will have much - if any - impact on decision making at recruiting level.

You can be pretty certain that the Tasmanian team will be given a decent amount of coin to poach 'expiring contract' players and you can guarantee they're going to start with all the highly rated Tasmanian guys.

If kids like McKercher and Sanders kick on, and people like Chayce Jones and Tarryn Thomas continue their trajectory, I think you can safely assume that whether or not they ultimately return to Tasmania or stay at the club that drafts them, they are going to receive life changing offers from the club in its first few years.

It would certainly make me think twice if I was a list manager for a team on the bottom half of the ladder.

 

[Freomaniac]

Im going to say something random here....

I know people will bag out Freos trading and drafting history in the early years.

Yes Gerard Neesham was the dockers coach in 1995. Before that, he was Claremonts coach. Got Claremont to flags in 1987, 1989, 1991 and 1993.

But I saw the 1991 AFL draft.

Pick 1 John Hutton (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 2 Marcus Seecamp (East Perth)

Pick 3 Darren Kovall (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 4 Andrew McGovern (Claremont) WAFL

pick 5 Jason Norrish (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 6 Paul Burton (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 7 Jeremy Guard (Claremont) WAFL


John Hutton, Andrew McGovern and Jason Norrish were in the dockers 1995 Squad.

There were later picks in Stephen O reilly, Phil Gilbert and Brendan Krummell in in that 1991 AFL draft that were dockers players in 1995.


Not that I am expecting 4 or 5 tassie kids being taken in the 1st round of this 2023 AFL draft.

 

[Lingsface]

Im going to say something random here....

I know people will bag out Freos trading and drafting history in the early years.

Yes Gerard Neesham was the dockers coach in 1995. Before that, he was Claremonts coach. Got Claremont to flags in 1987, 1989, 1991 and 1993.

But I saw the 1991 AFL draft.

Pick 1 John Hutton (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 2 Marcus Seecamp (East Perth)

Pick 3 Darren Kovall (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 4 Andrew McGovern (Claremont) WAFL

pick 5 Jason Norrish (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 6 Paul Burton (Claremont) WAFL

Pick 7 Jeremy Guard (Claremont) WAFL


John Hutton, Andrew McGovern and Jason Norrish were in the dockers 1995 Squad.

There were later picks in Stephen O reilly, Phil Gilbert and Brendan Krummell in in that 1991 AFL draft that were dockers players in 1995.


Not that I am expecting 4 or 5 tassie kids being taken in the 1st round of this 2023 AFL draft.

That is very interesting to see I can’t believe all 7 WA players went 1-7 ! What about the other states?

Would of been nice if Mcgovern played more games at fremantle, Jeremy McGovern and Mitch would of fitted in nicely there.

 

[Freomaniac]

That is very interesting to see I can’t believe all 7 WA players went 1-7 ! What about the other states?

Would of been nice if Mcgovern played more games at fremantle, Jeremy McGovern and Mitch would of fitted in nicely there.

There were restrictive rules then. SANFL cant be touched at the crows had exclusive rights.

Sydney swans had rights to nsw talent. Brisbane had access to Queensland talent.

Victorian sides were only allowed to select 1 WAFL player in that draft. So Tassie was looked at.

Keep in mind this was 1991, the NAB or Tac league or talent league as its now known wasnt established until 1992.

Other country leagues didnt have a lot of local Victorian talent.

So that left the Tassie state league.

 

[Jeremias]

You can be pretty certain that the Tasmanian team will be given a decent amount of coin to poach 'expiring contract' players and you can guarantee they're going to start with all the highly rated Tasmanian guys.

If kids like McKercher and Sanders kick on, and people like Chayce Jones and Tarryn Thomas continue their trajectory, I think you can safely assume that whether or not they ultimately return to Tasmania or stay at the club that drafts them, they are going to receive life changing offers from the club in its first few years.

It would certainly make me think twice if I was a list manager for a team on the bottom half of the ladder.

As always, clubs will recruit who they believe will be the best player, or who best fits their list needs.

Prospective trade value when the Tasmanian team comes into the competition won't be a factor.

 

[HTPunter]

If I'm Tarryn Thomas, I'm making sure my next contract ends just as the Tasmanian team comes in

But you’re not, and he’s much more likely to move to Miami than he is Hobart.

 

[Engimal v3]

But you’re not, and he’s much more likely to move to Miami than he is Hobart.

I doubt that

 

[SnusCG]

As always, clubs will recruit who they believe will be the best player, or who best fits their list needs.

Prospective trade value when the Tasmanian team comes into the competition won't be a factor.

It has nothing to do with prospective trade value. It has to do with not wanting to pick a kid with the expectation of them leaving once they've gone through their first few years of development.

It's the same reason interstate teams are always extremely wary to draft Victorian kids and a kids willingness to not only move interstate but stay interstate is absolutely factored in.

Now, are these boys going to say 'yeah go ahead and draft me, but i'll be returning to tasmania the moment the team is established'? no, of course they wont. But I also would expect them to receive absurd offers to move home and be the face of the new Tasmanian team once it is established.

Teams down the bottom of the ladder, especially interstate teams, can't afford to waste a high draft pick and years of development on a kid they don't think will stay at the club.

 

[Jeremias]

It has nothing to do with prospective trade value. It has to do with not wanting to pick a kid with the expectation of them leaving once they've gone through their first few years of development.

Read the OP. It has everything to do with prospective trade value.

That is literally what this thread is about.

 

[SnusCG]

Read the OP. It has everything to do with prospective trade value.

That is literally what this thread is about.

"do you think that teams will lean towards the Tasmanian if it’s line ball knowing that they may have enormous trade value in 3-4 years time when they search is on for a hometown hero?"

You said it would have no impact at recruiting level. I'm disagreeing. but I'm also disagreeing with the fact that it's impact will have anything to do with their future value as the OP suggested.

It will have to do with the fact that clubs - especially clubs down the bottom end of the ladder, wont want to put 4 years of development into kids that will likely leave the club when they need them. Teams down the bottom will be more likely to lean away from them imo, and I could see both McKercher and Sanders sliding for that reason.

 

[Lingsface]

"do you think that teams will lean towards the Tasmanian if it’s line ball knowing that they may have enormous trade value in 3-4 years time when they search is on for a hometown hero?"

You said it would have no impact at recruiting level. I'm disagreeing. but I'm also disagreeing with the fact that it's impact will have anything to do with their future value as the OP suggested.

It will have to do with the fact that clubs - especially clubs down the bottom end of the ladder, wont want to put 4 years of development into kids that will likely leave the club when they need them. Teams down the bottom will be more likely to lean away from them imo, and I could see both McKercher and Sanders sliding for that reason.

This is also a good point that you raise I was saying from the side of them having g higher than normal trade value but the option of free agency and leaving them for dead is there as well.

 

[My_Username]

If I'm Tarryn Thomas, I'm making sure my next contract ends just as the Tasmanian team comes in

I think most players would be wise to have their contracts end around then.

~40 new list spots and ~$15M more salary cap in the AFL system means it wont just be Tasmanian players (or those going to Tas) who are likely to benefit.

The holes in club lists caused by those leaving will also need to be filled, and the freed up salary cap will mean a pretty decent rate of inflation in player salaries across the board.

 

[Freomaniac]

If I'm Tarryn Thomas, I'm making sure my next contract ends just as the Tasmanian team comes in

scary prediction lol

 

[Freomaniac]

I doubt that

about Tarryn Thomas... not the way I thought he would leave North Melbourne.

But in all seriousness...

If Tassie are coming into the AFL in 2028, I would be curious on what tassie players will be drafted in this 2024 draft and 2025 draft.

 

[Cmarsh]

Do even Tasmanian players want to play for Tasmania? If they are like alot of other young Tasmanian people they would want to live somewhere but there.

 

[TheKanga]

Do even Tasmanian players want to play for Tasmania? If they are like alot of other young Tasmanian people they would want to live somewhere but there.

I know Mckercher said he was excited to experience another environment when we drafted him.

Some may like to stay in Tassie depends on their lifestyle if they want the bright lights or a more chill lifestyle.

Edit - A lot of young people move for job opportunities an AFL player wouldn't have that problem.