Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Final Siren, I might be a bit confused, but is that 2008 flagpole post-preliminary finals, or post-H&A?

It's post-prelims. Are you wondering why eliminated teams are still on there?

 

[Pessimistic]

By whatever measure, hawks 2008 were a worthy premier, its just that geelongs numbers were so much better

But with hindsight, a forward line of mooney lonergan and an unfit chapman and stokes just didnt cut it

Then there was stuart dew

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's post-prelims. Are you wondering why eliminated teams are still on there?

Nah, I just thought that form-wise the gap wouldn't have been so great, but I guess that's an overall trend rather than just a trend over the finals.

 

[Xtreme]

Then there was stuart dew

Giving hope to tubby guys everywhere

 

[Final Siren]

Nah, I just thought that form-wise the gap wouldn't have been so great, but I guess that's an overall trend rather than just a trend over the finals.

Right. There was a monstrous squiggle gap between the Cats and Hawks after Round 20, when Geelong were 4 wins and 35% (!!) clear on top of the ladder. The Hawks came on like a bullet after that, but the Cats' form held up, so a lot of the gap remained.

This doesn't mean the Hawks were lucky, but rather that what they did in 2008 is unprecedented. There's peaking in the finals and then there's Hawthorn 2008. Because the Cats dominated that year. I try not to learn any lessons from the '08 GF because it's unique in the data set.

 

[Pessimistic]

Even if we win this year, 2008 will still be my favourite

 

[Procrastinator35]

Don't know bout those other 17 clubs, but looking at that flag-pole graphic has me at full-mast.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Right. There was a monstrous squiggle gap between the Cats and Hawks after Round 20, when Geelong were 4 wins and 35% (!!) clear on top of the ladder. The Hawks came on like a bullet after that, but the Cats' form held up, so a lot of the gap remained.

This doesn't mean the Hawks were lucky, but rather that what they did in 2008 is unprecedented. There's peaking in the finals and then there's Hawthorn 2008. Because the Cats dominated that year. I try not to learn any lessons from the '08 GF because it's unique in the data set.

Cheers Final Siren.

The other year that intrigues me is 2010, where Hawthorn came home with a wet sail despite numerous early injuries. Clarkson then made a statement in the Elimination final aftermath that the sides left in it would be pleased that they were no longer in the race to the flag....I wonder if he had his reasons for this - in the form of data similar to the squiggle - or whether he just had faith Hawthorn could match the teams left.

 

[Oneiros]

Don't know bout those other 17 clubs, but looking at that flag-pole graphic has me at full-mast.

It's got me doing this:

 

[Rotayjay]

This thread continues to fascinate me. In fact, I have to make a mental note not to look at the flagpole in the last few weeks of H&A or in finals, just to keep myself in more suspense. On grand final day, I'd rather not be 70% certain who will win it.

 

[Xtreme]

Squiggles
Flagpoles

Would love to know what's coming up next

 

[Scotty_WCE]

Firstly thanks to Final Siren for the amazing Squiggle, it's absolutely awesome and I've been hooked ever since I first stumbled across it!

I thought I'd plot where the eventual premiers were after Round 15 over the last 20 years, here's what I ended up with:

What interested me the most was:

- The "Round 15 eventual Premier Clump" seems have a similar spread to the "Premiership Clump" and is also trailing behind it. This indicates the premiers seem to really accelerate and hit their top form at the end of the season (yes, this may be obvious but it's good to see the Squiggle confirm it!).

- How far back some premiers came from (especially West Coast in 2006, which is the one just below Geelong currently).

- How rarely teams more defensive than where Richmond are now, at this stage of the season, end up winning the flag.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting

 

[spinynorman]

So it's between North Melbourne, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Collingwood?

 

[Roby]

So it's between North Melbourne, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Collingwood?

Only one of those teams will make the finals, and none if GWS sneak in.

 

[Hawkk]

Firstly thanks to Final Siren for the amazing Squiggle, it's absolutely awesome and I've been hooked ever since I first stumbled across it!

I thought I'd plot where the eventual premiers were after Round 15 over the last 20 years, here's what I ended up with:

What interested me the most was:

- The "Round 15 eventual Premier Clump" seems have a similar spread to the "Premiership Clump" and is also trailing behind it. This indicates the premiers seem to really accelerate and hit their top form at the end of the season (yes, this may be obvious but it's good to see the Squiggle confirm it!).

- How far back some premiers came from (especially West Coast in 2006, which is the one just below Geelong currently).

- How rarely teams more defensive than where Richmond are now, at this stage of the season, end up winning the flag.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting

The Hawks are in an identical position to 2012...hardly surprising as our record after 14 rounds is identical to 2012!

After 14 games / After the home and away season / finishing position...

2012 10-4 (152.6%) (5/18) / 17-5 (154.6%) (1st) / Runner Up
2015 10-4 (153.8%) (4/18) / TBC / TBC

Can't get much closer than that!

That said the Eagles are much closer to Hawthorn 2015 than what Sydney 2012 was to Hawthorn 2012

 

[Final Siren]

Cheers Final Siren.

The other year that intrigues me is 2010, where Hawthorn came home with a wet sail despite numerous early injuries. Clarkson then made a statement in the Elimination final aftermath that the sides left in it would be pleased that they were no longer in the race to the flag....I wonder if he had his reasons for this - in the form of data similar to the squiggle - or whether he just had faith Hawthorn could match the teams left.

Oh yeah, I remember we all made fun of that. Well, some support for Clarkson from the squiggle. Flagpole ahead of finals 2010:

So the Hawks were in pretty good shape for 7th.

 

[Oneiros]

The Hawks are in an identical position to 2012...hardly surprising as our record after 14 rounds is identical to 2012!

After 14 games / After the home and away season / finishing position...

2012 10-4 (152.6%) (5/18) / 17-5 (154.6%) (1st) / Runner Up
2015 10-4 (153.8%) (4/18) / TBC / TBC

Can't get much closer than that!

That said the Eagles are much closer to Hawthorn 2015 than what Sydney 2012 was to Hawthorn 2012

Swans 2012 squiggle is rather odd. A very large chunk of their final position comes courtesy of that QF win over Adelaide. An enormous defensive shift.

 

[cryptor]

Oh yeah, I remember we all made fun of that. Well, some support for Clarkson from the squiggle. Flagpole ahead of finals 2010:

So the Hawks were in pretty good shape for 7th.

That was the season where our game against St Kilda late in the season resulted in a draw after a goal Rioli kicked very late to seal the game was overturned, brought to the centre and 50m penalty paid after one of our players stepped onto the field too early while he was going for his shot at goal. Resulted in us finishing the season 7th and playing away in elimination final against Fremantle rather than 5th and playing against Carlton at Etihad. Which if we'd won seen us play the Doggies at the MCG in a SF and then if we'd won that the Saints at the MCG in a PF followed by the Pies in the GF.

Unlikely to have made it as far as the GF but I guess you could make a case for it. Geelong far more unlucky not to have won it that year by the looks of it.

 

[Matele]

Id love to see a 1996 flagpole. A lot of Eagles supporters claim it was a lost year with the whole scenario at the MCG which robbed the club of a home final. Were WC a real chance at a third flag? Or was it just talk?

 

[Hawkk]

That was the season where our game against St Kilda late in the season resulted in a draw after a goal Rioli kicked very late to seal the game was overturned, brought to the centre and 50m penalty paid after one of our players stepped onto the field too early while he was going for his shot at goal. Resulted in us finishing the season 7th and playing away in elimination final against Fremantle rather than 5th and playing against Carlton at Etihad. Which if we'd won seen us play the Doggies at the MCG in a SF and then if we'd won that the Saints at the MCG in a PF followed by the Pies in the GF.

Unlikely to have made it as far as the GF but I guess you could make a case for it. Geelong far more unlucky not to have won it that year by the looks of it.

Not that it mattered but I very much doubt the 2010 Hawthorn v Carlton final would have been at Ethiad

 

[Feerits Elf]

Which team's flag looks like Space Ghost? Is that Carlton?

 

[cryptor]

Not that it mattered but I very much doubt the 2010 Hawthorn v Carlton final would have been at Ethiad

Both the QFs would've been (and were) played at the MCG. I believe contract arrangements would've meant that a third Victorian final would be played at Etihad. But like you said, doesn't matter - never happened.

 

[Hawkk]

Both the QFs would've been (and were) played at the MCG. I believe contract arrangements would've meant that a third Victorian final would be played at Etihad. But like you said, doesn't matter - never happened.

There is no contract requirement...

In 2013, the AFL played 3 finals at the MCG:

Hawthorn v Sydney Swans (Friday Night)
Collingwood v Port Adelaide (Saturday Night)
Richmond v Carlton (Sunday Afternoon)

Unless the AFL was fixtured into a box (in which case the lowest drawing final would have been played at Ethiad) the AFL wasn't going to schedule a final between 2 of the five highest drawing clubs at Ethiad.

All academic really. That said Clarko's premise was that Hawthorn went 11-1-3 from round 7 in 2010 (including a 2-1-1 (wins against Collingwood by 4 points, W Bulldogs 3 points, draw against St Kilda and loss to the Cats by 2 points) record against the top 4 clubs for that year)

 

[Oneiros]

All the things in that post that could have elicited comment and it's the fact he fixtured the notional game at Etihad that draws your attention?

 

[cryptor]

There is no contract requirement...

In 2013, the AFL played 3 finals at the MCG:

Hawthorn v Sydney Swans (Friday Night)
Collingwood v Port Adelaide (Saturday Night)
Richmond v Carlton (Sunday Afternoon)

Unless the AFL was fixtured into a box (in which case the lowest drawing final would have been played at Ethiad) the AFL wasn't going to schedule a final between 2 of the five highest drawing clubs at Ethiad.

All academic really. That said Clarko's premise was that Hawthorn went 11-1-3 from round 7 in 2010 (including a 2-1-1 (wins against Collingwood by 4 points, W Bulldogs 3 points, draw against St Kilda and loss to the Cats by 2 points) record against the top 4 clubs for that year)

I stand corrected then