Mega Thread The 225 Days of Season 2014

[MrTripleC]

Thanks for the cheap plug SP.

Thanks as always for the ongoing support and hope you enjoy the listen. We have tried to be a bit different by not giving your standard once a week, talk about last weekend, talk about this weekend style. We air three a week, Monday Wednesday Friday and try to focus on all 18 teams and give deeper insight into the league as a whole.

Welcome any feedback and any suggestions on segment ideas.

 

[MAGPIE2013]

86 Day Warning


Ps & Qs


On Wednesday's Mike to Cam Show MrTripleC took the top nine teams for his Proclamation and Question. What would his bottom nine been proclaiming and questioning. Read on below:


Western

Proclamation (PS): The Dogs drafting has been among the worst in the league over the past decade.

Question (QS): Who would you tag against the Bulldogs moving forward; Liberatore or Griffen?


Carlton

PS: Forget the Richmond-Port example; Carlton is becoming a feeder system for the Adelaide Crows.

QS: What role would Bryce Gibbs play in a premiership side?


Essendon

PS: Essendon has been just as inconsistent as the highly publicised Adelaide and North Melbourne.

QS: Who would you appoint to be coach in 2015.


Brisbane

PS: James Aish should be the clear and overwhelming Rising Star favourite.

QS: What do you think Tom Rockliff actually said to Brent Harvey on Saturday night?


St Kilda

PS: They need Leigh Montagna and Lenny Hayes to go around again next year.

QS: Where would St Kilda be on the ladder today if they has kept Ross Lyon as coach?


GWS

PS: They will upset Adelaide this weekend.

QS: Will the Giants finally avoid the wooden spoon in 2014?


West Coast

PS: They need an elite small forward then they do an elite midfielder.

QS: Should part of Jeremy McGovern's contract extension been a patent over the nickname 'Governor'?


Melbourne

PS: Melbourne should throw the kitchen sink at Brendon Bolton.

QS: Who has been the Demons best pick up this season?


Richmond

PS: Jake King is the most misunderstood person in the league.

QS: Should Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin spend more time forward?

what about tom langdon?

 

[Crankyhawk]

92 Day Warning

Friday’s Fab Five Forecaster Forecast
Another new segment for ‘The 225 Days’ and simulcast on the ‘Mike to Cam Show’ is Friday’s Fab Five Forecaster Forecast. Each Friday MrTripleC is going to give five sometimes serious and sometimes ridiculous predictions for the weekend ahead.

Round 15 Fab Five
1. There is a first time Glendinning Medal Winner
Through history this has been a West Australian stars award with Matthew Pavlich, Paul Haselby, Chris Judd etc... having multiple medals as best on ground in the Western Derby. Earlier this year Lachie Neale took home the award and this is the start of a swing back to role players winning the medal. Expect a first time Glendinning Medallist this weekend.

2. Geelong and Essendon has the closest margin of the round
You get the feeling that Friday night football is going to deliver this weekend. While during the week all the talk has been off-field these are two teams that have had some cracking games in recent seasons. With top four on the line for Geelong and top eight for Essendon this is a big match and should deliver an epic contest.

3. The Riewoldt’s combine for less than 6 goals this weekend
Given recent history Jack would traditionally get this figure on his own. But with Richmond in a state of turmoil and St Kilda the wooden spoon favourite; a high scoring affair is unlikely in this one. For that reason big bags of goals are unlikely and hence a quiet Riewoldt’s game may be the result.

4. A team scores 97 points this weekend
Long story. But it is a shout out to my Nan. Thanks Nan.

5.Brad Scott whinges about the six day break and the travel to Brisbane
Time to put my money up. I did call out Brad Scott about his whinging earlier this week. So let’s see if I really am right and Scott does like to have something to talk negatively about. Not only predicting a whinge but the actual whinge itself.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.

Well, he certainly found something to whinge about.

 

[MrTripleC]

87 Day Warning


Define Nine – Round 16
Everyone is the AFL world is fascinated by taking it one week at a time. Forget one week at a time though, round 20 is where all eyes should be turning. Yes, there are some big games to come in the next month; but they seem miniscule compared to what promises to be a massive round 20. Okay, since you asked, here is the round 16 rankings instead.

9. Richmond Vs Brisbane – MCG Saturday 1.45pm Seven

8. Carlton Vs St Kilda - Etihad Stadium - Sunday 1.10pm FOX

7. Melbourne Vs Fremantle - TIO Stadium - Saturday 7.10pm FOX

6. Geelong Vs Western - Simmonds Stadium - Sunday 4.40pm FOX

5. West Coast Vs Sydney - Patersons Stadium - Sunday 1.20pm Seven

4. GWS Vs Adelaide - Giants Stadium - Saturday 2.10pm FOX

MUST SEE MATCH OF THE WEEK
3. Port Adelaide Vs Essendon - Adelaide Oval - Saturday 7.10pm Seven

2. North Melbourne Vs Hawthorn – Etihad Stadium Friday 7.50pm Seven

MOST SIGNIFICANT MATCH OF THE WEEK
1. Gold Coast Vs Collingwood – Metricon Stadium - Saturday 4.40pm FOX

 

[Three Ton Kano]

87 Day Warning


Define Nine – Round 16
Everyone is the AFL world is fascinated by taking it one week at a time. Forget one week at a time though, round 20 is where all eyes should be turning. Yes, there are some big games to come in the next month; but they seem miniscule compared to what promises to be a massive round 20. Okay, since you asked, here is the round 16 rankings instead.

9. Richmond Vs Brisbane – MCG Saturday 1.45pm Seven

8. Carlton Vs St Kilda - Etihad Stadium - Sunday 1.10pm FOX

7. Melbourne Vs Fremantle - TIO Stadium - Saturday 7.10pm FOX

6. Geelong Vs Western - Simmonds Stadium - Sunday 4.40pm FOX

5. West Coast Vs Sydney - Patersons Stadium - Sunday 1.20pm Seven

4. GWS Vs Adelaide - Giants Stadium - Saturday 2.10pm FOX

MUST SEE MATCH OF THE WEEK
3. Port Adelaide Vs Essendon - Adelaide Oval - Saturday 7.10pm Seven

2. North Melbourne Vs Hawthorn – Etihad Stadium Friday 7.50pm Seven

MOST SIGNIFICANT MATCH OF THE WEEK
1. Gold Coast Vs Collingwood – Metricon Stadium - Saturday 4.40pm FOX

 

[Three Ton Kano]

MOST SIGNIFICANT MATCH OF THE WEEK
1. Gold Coast Vs Collingwood – Metricon Stadium - Saturday 4.40pm FOX

The real most significant match of the round, the Mtc family derby!! With no Lines to beat Mtc on a win for Three TOn Kano this week!! Congratulations for the new podcast too, a good listen. A question for the mailbag and for the 225days.

With all the talk of the changes being proposed to free agency, what do you think has been the impact of and any adjustments that will be made to the rotation cap. After being involved in the Mtc coaching program i know the importance you place on rotations!!

 

[MrTripleC]

Appreciate the ongoing support.

In Friday's podcast was able to answer the questions of Big Vic, Magpie 2013 and Three Ton Kano.

Basically:
Yes, Good Friday football will be a success.
Langdon is close, but Aish has shown more match winning ability.
No, rotations won't have a big impact with free agency.

Take a listen at Mike To Cam to get the full story.

Enjoy the weekend, and best of luck to your team in round 16.

 

[MrTripleC]

86 Day Warning

Friday’s Fab Five Forecaster ForecastAfter hitting on two of the five 5F's for last week the challenge is on to go one better. Five things to look for in round 16 include:


Round 16 Fab Five

1. Anthony Morabito starts as a sub
Plays only 30-40 minutes of game time, finishes with 5 or 6 possessions and a tackle. Like Syliva a few weeks back, Morabito has three games to prove himself. This week as a sub and than another two starting on the field. Must have an impact all three weeks to continue in the side.

2. GWS beat Adelaide
Been calling it all week. But GWS to beat Adelaide, it is my big call of the week.

3. There will be double digit last minute changes
It is the silly season for late changes and with a number of key players named but looking sore going into the weekend. Expect teams to look different by match time to how they do right now. Fantasy coaches, beware. Have your emergencies set.

4. Only three designated ruckman play in the Sydney - West Coast match
Six ruckman were named in the respective squads in last night's team announcement. However with rain forecast there is little chance that it is the valley of giants on Sunday. Expect Cox, Lycett and Pyke to be the only three ruckman that run out on Sunday.

5. Brad Scott whinges about his midfield
After North Melbourne get massacred in the midfield tonight against Hawthorn, Brad Scott will launch another verbal tirade post match about the lack of consistency and inabilities in his midfield.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.


Round 15 Fab Five Review
1. There is a first time Glendinning Medal Winner
HIT - Thankyou Stephen Hill for beating out Nathan Fyfe.

2. Geelong and Essendon has the closest margin of the round
STRIKE - But oh so close, dam Tom Hawkins and his last minute goal.

3. The Riewoldt’s combine for less than 6 goals this weekend
HIT - Pretty much as I called it.

4. A team scores 97 points this weekend
STRIKE - Close Nan, a couple of teams with 91 but not 97.

5.Brad Scott whinges about the six day break and the travel to Brisbane
STRIKE - Brad whinged... but just not about the six day break.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.

 

[B4Bear]

86 Day Warning


5. Brad Scott whinges about his midfield
After North Melbourne get massacred in the midfield tonight against Hawthorn, Brad Scott will launch another verbal tirade post match about the lack of consistency and inabilities in his midfield.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.


5.Brad Scott whinges about the six day break and the travel to Brisbane
STRIKE - Brad whinged... but just not about the six day break.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.

Seems to me Mr TripleC that you are turning into another partisan BF hack.

Such a pity.

 

[MrTripleC]

B4B,
Appreciate the feedback, is more done as tongue in cheek but understand if you do think that this does lower the opinion of the piece. Really just wanted to reiterate that this is done more for a laugh than the usual in depth analysis. Take all feedback on though so thanks B4B.

 

[MrTripleC]

83 Day Warning

Refine Nine
Following discussions on the Mike To Cam Show, follow on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM; find updated Refine Nine for Round 16 factoring in strength of game importance and match play itself.


9. Fremantle 97 d Melbourne 34 (Down 2)

8. Carlton 151 d St Kilda 66 (Unchanged)

7. Adelaide 140 d GWS 72 (Down 3)

6. Geelong 69 d Western 56 (Unchanged)

5. Sydney 79 d West Coast 51 (Unchanged)

4. Richmond 79 d Brisbane 54 (Up 5)

3. North Melbourne 108 d Hawthorn 88 (Down 1)

2. Essendon 62 d Port Adelaide 60 (Up 1)

1. Gold Coast 80 d Collingwood 75 (Unchanged)

 

[MrTripleC]

Any questions coming from the weekend's game, will look to double up and provide a mailbag in 'The 100 Day Warning' tomorrow and answer in the Friday version of the 'Mike to Cam Show' Podcast.

Also stay tuned in the next couple of days for some in depth analysis of why there is a more important question that no-one is asking about the Ablett injury and why the glut of statistical analysis in the game means there is job openings galore in a less considered area.

 

[clogged]

Also stay tuned in the next couple of days for some in depth analysis of why there is a more important question that no-one is asking about the Ablett injury and why the glut of statistical analysis in the game means there is job openings galore in a less considered area.

Can you tag me when you post this? Interested in your thoughts but always forget to check this thread.

 

[MrTripleC]

80 Day Warning

Define Nine – Round 17

9. Fremantle Vs GWS - Patersons Stadium - Sunday 2.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
Fremantle: Sylvia vs Morabito, they cannot both be in this team come finals time.
Melbourne: Neville Jetta back, surely he goes to Ballantyne.

8. North Melbourne Vs St Kilda - Blundstone Arena - Saturday 2.10pm FOX
What to watch for:
North Melbourne: Need to reverse the trend of struggling against lowly ranked teams.
St Kilda: Who gets Dal Santo and what they do to him around the contest, easy or hard.

7. Melbourne Vs Geelong - MCG - Saturday 1.45pm Seven
What to watch for:
Melbourne: With Neville Jetta back, who does he take?
Geelong: Expect the screws to be turned as they build some much needed percentage

6. Sydney Vs Carlton - SCG - Saturday 7.40pm Seven
What to watch for:
Sydney: JPK to become Brownlow favourite with a standout performance.
Carlton: David Ellard back in gives them some hardness in a match they will need it.

5. Brisbane Vs West Coast - GABBA - Saturday 7.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
Brisbane: James Aish to bounce back from a quiet game with a big performance.
West Coast: Eagles three man ruck trio to have a big impact on the scoreboard.

4. Richmond Vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday 1.10pm FOX
What to watch for:
Richmond: Alex Rance to be sadly well beaten in game number 100.
Port Adelaide: They do bouneback with a comfortable win.

3. Western Vs Gold Coast - Etihad Stadium - Saturday 4.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
Western: Upset. This is the one likely upset of the weekend according to bookies favourites.
Gold Coast: Just how they can cope without Ablett when they spend a weekend planning around it.

MUST SEE MATCH OF THE WEEK
2. Collingwood Vs Essendon - MCG - Sunday 3.20pm Seven
What to watch for:
Collingwood: Leadership to play a part with Maxwell and Ball coming back in.
Essendon: Dyson Heppel to feel the wrath of Brent Macaffer.

MOST SIGNIFICANT MATCH OF THE WEEK
1. Adelaide Vs Hawthorn - Adelaide Oval - Friday 7.20pm Seven
What to watch for:
Adelaide: Betts. Keep an eye on it.
Hawthorn: A much improved performance after taking a week to readjust to Clarko's style and focus.

 

[MrTripleC]

79 Day Warning

Friday’s Fab Five Forecaster Forecast

Last week consistency was the order of the day with another two hits to go with the two from the weekend before. The one positive, those two were a heck of a lot better than the goose egg for Mike from the 'Mike to Cam Show' Podcast.

Round 17 Fab Five

1. Liam Picken goes to David Swallow
For the first time in four years teams have a decision to make with who their tagger goes to. No Ablett means one of the young Suns is going to get a lot more attention than he was used to. While there are plenty of options in Bennell, O'Meara and Prestia; it is Swallow that is going to be the heartbeat of this team for the next two months. Picken who did a great job on Ablett two months ago looks to make it two for two albeit against Swallow this time.

2. Essendon and Collingwood decided by a kick or less
Seems destined to be a close one with so much on the line. Was not game enough to pick the draw so a one goal game is the chop out for that.

3. Eddie Betts goalless
Betts has been outstanding this season and particularly in the last month. However with the attention and pressure of a milestone match, Betts is set for a quiet one. Goalless for Betts is the call.

4. GWS and Melbourne combine for under 100 points
GWS and Melbourne battle to score. Geelong and Fremantle are outstanding defences. The winning teams continue to need the percentage boost. The lower teams continue to promote the youth. These are two blowouts, unlikely either the Giants or Demons get past 50.

5. Brad Scott whinges about St Kilda's treatment of Nick Dal Santo
It could be that he is not happy about how St Kilda's players handle Dal Santo or it could be he decides to make a comment on St Kilda moving him on last year. Either way, Scott is going to make a deal of Dal Santo post match.


Round 16 Fab Five Review
1. Anthony Morabito starts as a sub
HIT - And could have claimed a bonus point considering how close my stats predictions were.

2. GWS beat Adelaide
STRIKE - Okay, my one big call for the weekend last week was a shocker, Giants never in the contest.

3. There will be double digit last minute changes
STRIKE - Close but no cigar with eight changes on match day to the respective AFL teams.

4. Only three designated ruckman play in the Sydney - West Coast match
HIT - Again can I claim bonus points for predicting the three ruckman who did line up last Sunday?

5. Brad Scott whinges about his midfield
STRIKE - Even Brad couldn't find anything to whinge about with a performance like that.

Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.

 

[MrTripleC]

78 Day Warning

In keeping with the theme of originality in 2014 at ‘The 225 Days’; today a new column is trialled. One that is based on the 2003 movie Confidence which told us that any great con can be undone by asking the right questions. MrTripleC asks the right questions and ‘Cracks the Con’ that AFL clubs, AFL players or AFL media would have you believe.

Crack the Con – A Gary Ablett Special
Since injuring his shoulder midway through the third term in last Saturday night’s game against Collingwood, Ablett has been the talk of the football world. Over the course of three days differing stories and levels of severity on the shoulder injury he had sustained were told. However on Tuesday the football world really got the story it was least hoping for with Ablett confirmed to be undergoing shoulder reconstruction surgery and that he would miss the remainder of the season.

This Ablett injury raised a number of different topics and talking points; but as can be the case in situations like this, the mainstream questions have been continually asked and some of the more deep dive questions and topics have been left unexplored.

Topic One: Brent Macaffer’s role & a sliding door moment
Listeners to the ‘Mike to Cam Show’ on Monday would have heard this argument already however the Ablett injury was the greatest sliding door moment of the season so far. By now everyone has seen the footage, the ball is kicked to a one on one between Macaffer and Ablett. Ablett has back position and is looking to work Macaffer under the ball. Macaffer is at the last moment able to affect a spoil to ground level. If Macaffer does not make that spoil, Ablett takes the ball and runs towards the Suns goal, sliding door moment one. However as the ball does hit the ground Ablett picks the ball up and Macaffer lays a tackle pinning the arm of Ablett. Showing his strength and his attacking mindest though Ablett is able to work his arm free to try and give a handball off. Rather than be content with having a ball up, Ablett wants to make the play. Macaffer in the tackle slings Ablett around as Ablett’s arm comes free and the ball is jarred loose. With two free arms now Ablett is slung to ground and in protecting himself lands on his elbow and the impact of this dislocates the shoulder. Now consider the strength of Ablett, a smaller or lesser midfielder would have been slung to ground head first. This tackle by Macaffer was completely dangerous and uncontrolled. While injury was not on Macaffer’s mind no doubt, the reality was that lack of duty of care caused the Ablett injury. Macaffer got lucky.

Sliding door moment two is that Ablett’s arm is pinned and Macaffer slings Ablett to ground head first causing a concussion and a likely lengthy suspension to Macaffer. Sliding door moment two. It is remarkable to consider that an incident that was so heavily scrutinesed and resulted in an injury to the game’s best player was not even assessed by the match review panel. If Ablett had have had concussion as opposed to dislocated shoulder it would have. However the tackle was dangerous regardless of the outcome and Macaffer should have been punished for this. A concussion while would have been bad for Ablett short term, may have meant he was able to get back within a week or two as opposed to missing the whole season and potentially a maiden Gold Coast finals campaign. Again this was an incident where the whole AFL turned. The top eight opened back up, the top four opened up and the whole season was turned on one Gary Ablett shoulder.

Topic Two: Forget Charles Brownlow, this is about Leigh Matthews
Throughout recent history the Brownlow medal has continued to be admonished as a lesser award because of the way in which the winner is decided. It still has wide appeal because of the history of the award however most would argue against the Brownlow then for it with in recent years coaches awards and MVP awards holding most weight amongst players and hence resonating with the wider football public. So why then when Ablett went down was all the talk around Brownlow chances and whether Ablett would win a third. Surely the talk should have been on the AFLPA MVP or the Leigh Matthews Trophy as it is better known.

Make no mistake this is the award Ablett cherishes. This is recognition from your peers as to your standing in the game. A brief history shows that Ablett has an unprecedented dominance over this award. Since first being recognised in 1982 no player has won more than two. Ablett has five. Only one player has ever gone back to back, Michael Voss; Ablett won three straight with Geelong and was on the verge of three straight with Gold Coast. These were unprecedented numbers and were likely to never be beaten. Since 1982 it is fair to say there has never been a better player than Ablett and this award is testament to that. With all the scrutiny that players face in the modern era, Ablett had to overcome perceptions about his game early in his career and then playing on a weakened side with the Gold Coast.

In some ways Ablett not winning the MVP award this year is a travesty because the reality is he is more deserving this year than any of his previous five winning years. He was on the verge of leading Gold Coast to the finals and continues to be the one true star in his team as opposed to his time at Geelong. This should be a case where instead of talking in travesties around the Brownlow, it is instead talked around the MVP. It is the award Ablett wants and likely the one he does not get.

 

[MrTripleC]

77 Day Warning

The 225 Day Medal
The warning continues with more votes in ‘The 225 Day Medal’ revealed. After a week’s hiatus last weekend the votes are from round seven and round 15.

Round Seven
Collingwood 104 d Carlton 70
3. Dayne Beams (Collingwood)
2. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
1. Tom Langdon (Collingwood)
Hawthorn 175 d St Kilda 30
3.Shaun Burgoyne (Hawthorn)
2. Luke Breust (Hawthorn)
1. Grant Birchall (Hawthorn)
Port Adelaide 132 d GWS 97
3. Jared Polec (Port Adelaide)
2. Callan Ward (GWS)
1. Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide)
Melbourne 70 d Adelaide 67
3. Chris Dawes (Melbourne)
2. Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide)
1. Brodie Smith (Adelaide)
Sydney 123 d Brisbane 44
3. Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
2. Jarryd McVeigh (Sydney)
1. Kieran Jack (Sydney)
Essendon 73 d Western 65
3. Cale Hooker (Essendon)
2. Luke Dahlhaus (Western)
1. Shaun Higgins (Western)
Gold Coast 120 d North Melbourne 77
3. Gary Ablett (Gold Coast)
2. Dion Prestia (Gold Coast)
1. Tom Lynch (Gold Coast)
Geelong 81 d Richmond 76
3. Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)
2. Steve Johnson (Geelong)
1. Reece Conca (Richmond)
Fremantle 73 d West Coast 54
3. Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle)
2. Lachie Neale (Fremantle)
1. David Mundy (Fremantle)


Round 15
Geelong 89 d Essendon 80
3. Joel Selwood (Geelong)
2. Dyson Heppell (Essendon)
1. Brendon Goddard (Essendon)
Hawthorn 116 d Gold Coast 63
3. Issac Smith (Hawthorn)
2. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
1. Jordan Lewis (Hawthorn)
Richmond 117 d St Kilda 73
3. Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
2. Brandon Ellis (Richmond)
1. Dustin Martin (Richmond)
Fremantle 88 d West Coast 81
3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)
2. Paul Duffield (Fremantle)
1. Mark LeCras (West Coast)
Sydney 106 d GWS 60
3. Lance Franklin (Sydney)
2. Kieran Jack (Sydney)
1. Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
Brisbane 70 d North Melbourne 66
3. James Aish (Brisbane)
2. Pearce Hanley (Brisbane)
1. Andrew Swallow (North Melbourne)
Western 91 d Melbourne 85
3. Matthew Boyd (Western)
2. Mark Jamar (Melbourne)
1. Marcus Bontempelli (Western)
Adelaide 99 d Port Adelaide 76
3. Sam Jacobs (Adelaide)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
1. Eddie Betts (Adelaide)
Collingwood 91 d Carlton 76
3. Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood)
2. Chris Judd (Carlton)
1. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)


Leaderboard (Rounds 1-7 + 13-15 Counted)
17 – Gary Ablett (Gold Coast)
13 – Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
12 – Callan Ward (GWS)
11 – Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
10 – Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
10 – Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn)

 

[MrTripleC]

76 Day Warning

Refine Nine
Following discussions on the Mike To Cam Show, follow on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM; find updated Refine Nine for Round 17 factoring in strength of game importance and match play itself.


9. North Melbourne 92 d St Kilda 33 (Down 1)

8. Geelong 102 d Melbourne 36 (Down 1)

7. Fremantle 136 d GWS 60 (Up 2)

6. Essendon 103 d Collingwood 39 (Down 4)

5. Sydney 122 d Carlton 51 (Up 1)

4. Western 94 d Gold Coast 66 (Down 1)

3. West Coast 76 d Brisbane 64 (Up 2)

2. Richmond 126 d Port Adelaide 106 (Up 1)

1. Hawthorn 104 d Adelaide 92 (Unchanged)

 

[MrTripleC]

75 Day Warning

In keeping with the theme of originality in 2014 at ‘The 225 Days’; today a new column is trialled. One that is based on the 2003 movie Confidence which told us that any great con can be undone by asking the right questions. MrTripleC asks the right questions and ‘Cracks the Con’ that AFL clubs, AFL players or AFL media would have you believe.


Crack the Con – A Numbers Job

Australian Rules has always been a numbers game. In its infancy those numbers were simple. Your number (or score) needed to be higher than their number. As the game evolved so to did how the game was observed. Numbers on the back of jumpers became common practice so the crowd knew who each player was. Goal scorers started to be recorded, then kicks, then handballs, then marks and then came the AFL. What started as a local competition expanded to a national competition has grown over the life of one generation to be a multi-national machine that has encapsulated what used to be the humble sport of Australian Rules. Where Australian Rules over nearly 100 years was primarily about your number against their number, the AFL world says that not all numbers are created equal but every number tells a story in the world of sport business.

So when the AFL commenced realistically it was the common on-field statistics that were kept. Kicks, marks, handballs. But in reality they meant nothing in comparison to the scoreboard. As long as your number was bigger, you were happy. Over the past 25 years on field statistics have evolved at an exponential rate. Statistics are used for just about any conceivable measure in an AFL game. Tackles, one percenters, rebounds, clearances, clangers, time of possession, conversion, work ratio and rotation numbers are just a series of the measures and indeed the numbers that go into making up an AFL team and an AFL game.

Because of the good folks at Champion Data, statistics have taken over the modern game. Every wannabee AFL job seeker looks at the numbers, looks at the analyst and thinks that they have an original thought or idea on the game that will get them a job at an AFL club. Unfortunately as the AFL is mass market, ideas around the game are mass market. What once perceivably would have been original can now be found somewhere in the wide spaces of the modern game. Those who are outside looking into the football industry believe numbers are where the next jobs are at. Come up with the next ground breaking formula about the game. Come up with numbers that can explain where the game is going next. Come up with a revolution. The AFL though is evolution. It has been evolution for 25 years. What was a revolution today will become evolution tomorrow such is the nature and the rapid rise of analyst of the modern game.

So if everyone on the outside is looking in the same wrong place, where is the right place to look, where are numbers of importance in the modern game and where are the numbers that are going to matter most in the years ahead. Those numbers can be found generally in bold print surrounded by a whole lot of small print. Yes, in contacts.

There is an overabundance of information and knowledgeable people associated with the AFL who understand how the game works on field and can put trackers, measure and key performance indicators in place to help define on field success. However on field success does not necessarily mean winning on field to start anymore. On field success comes from winning off field. Over the past decade four teams especially have found a way to stay relative at the top of the AFL ladder, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and Collingwood. They have all done it differently to stay at the top, but one element that is clear throughout all four of these clubs is that they have won off field.
Sydney have long been considered the masters of recycling players. They have an ability to identify misused talent and see where that talent will have a place in their side. Hawthorn have had the approach of adding veteran talent each year to continue with the rejuvenation of their list. Geelong have built a club based around family, loyalty and sacrifice and have used that to shape two football generations of Cats. Collingwood have used their brand appeal to attract the players that they need and maintain those crucial to team success. All four have done it differently. All four have done it well. All four have done it because they make the numbers work.

Make no mistake, right now and likely for the foreseeable future the numbers that matter more than the score, more than the stats and more than the bums in seats; is how many years and how much. The contract.

For any budding AFL employee out there the time has come to think differently and to think outside the box. The AFL Commission still has not worked out the significance that contracts play in on-field success and for that reason there are loopholes galore in the AFL collective bargaining agreement to its players that are being begged to be exploited. Every AFL fan and every AFL club was asking the question of ‘how could they?’ when Sydney signed Lance Franklin to a multimillion, multiyear deal last year. The question smart fans and smart clubs should have been asking is ‘what other loophole can we exploit?’.

So what would it take to be a contract expert who could consult an AFL club on how to make an AFL list viable in the modern game? The short answer it lots. The longer answer is legal understanding, contract understanding, CBA understanding, communication skills, negotiation skills, AFL knowledge, people management skills and number skills. Seems like a long list and a lot of requirements that your average AFL fan may not have. The good news is, the most important skill is numbers.

The AFL commission is taking the game into unchartered waters in terms of player movement with free agency, the opportunity around that is that a number of the core values of the game remain and that gives the chance to create contracts like what Sydney offered to Lance Franklin. Years and dollars. Years and dollars. It seems simple, it is made complex, yet it is simple. Find 40 of the best young footballers and make them fit under a salary cap, whatever that salary cap is. If a team needs a jolt in one direction know where to go to make that happen.

So you want an AFL job? Know every contract on your list. Know every contract on every AFL list. Know the CBA. Know the loopholes. Know the numbers. That is key. Australian Rules used to be about your number against their number. The AFL is about one number. ONE. One premier. One you. Be the one.

 

[MrTripleC]

Hi 225 Day Fans,

Any questions will be looking to do a mailbag this week and will also look to answer them in the Friday edition of 'The Mike to Cam Show' Podcast. Keep up with MTC on twitter at MTC_MiketoCam.

Again appreciate the ongoing support of the Big Footy community.

 

[MrTripleC]

74 Day Warning

Countdown

Nine Players who should be on Nine Year Contracts
A decade ago it was hard to believe that anyone could earn $10 million dollars playing AFL let along do it over the course of one contract. Six months ago it was hard to believe that anyone could be worth $10 million dollars on one contract. Alas along came Lance Franklin. So if Lance has proven that a nine year contract could work (albeit for one season) who else should get nine years right now.

9. Marcus Bontempelli (Western)
So Bontempelli hasn’t even got to nine games yet, so how could he be worth a nine year contract. See above, what seemed crazy before has a funny way of working out pretty quickly actually. Bontempelli despite being four months away from his 19th birthday looks like a man on field and has proven himself to be the outstanding player of the 2013 draft class. An ability to tackle, kick goals and work inside means he is the complete package in the making. Add on a 192cm/85kg frame and he comes right from the Josh Kennedy or Fremantle school of midfielders.

8. Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide)
A proven talent for a number of seasons now and beginning to show himself as an outstanding leader. Leads by example, kicks goals, wins his own ball and is deadly outside. If anything the only nit picking you can do on Dangerfield is with the way that he throws his body around he is a danger to himself lasting out a nine year contract.

7. Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)
Forget any other Port Adelaide player, Wines is the one that oozes the right mix of class and temperament. Has already proven himself on the big stage and the big games and has shown consistency beyond his years. Tough at it on the inside and another potential leader down the line, Wines would be worth all of the nine years.

6. Adam Treloar (GWS)
First player from the expansion clubs and the only one on the list from GWS. Yes, they have a number of potential big talls that could become major players in a few years. But if you are looking at a nine year deal you want production throughout and only midfielders can give that. Treloar has been somewhat of a surprise of the GWS team but his ability to consistently find the ball and use it well has made him a crucial part of the Giants midfield now and into the future.

5. Brad Hill (Hawthorn)
To look at Hill you would say that his pace that makes him both so electrifying and so important in the modern game. However Hill is so much more than that explosive outside player. He has workrate beyond his years and his decision making is elite considering his age and the team he plays in. When you are playing for the reigning premier and are considered a crucial omission to the side it speaks volumes about your standing in the team both short and long term.

4. Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
For some reason Fyfe is not really compared to a very simple comp in James Hird. That is both a blessing and a warning in the one package. Yes, Fyfe is extremely talented and is one of the most versatile players in the league; but as the Hird example taught us an unexplained injury could be just around the corner when you play with the reckless abandonment that Fyfe does. If fit likely is the backbone of multiple premiership sides in the next nine years.

3. Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
Just makes it on the age factor as he will be on the wrong side of the 30 in nine years time. However Cotchin appears to be the type of player that is going to just want to continue to play football for as long as he can. He continues to close in on a Brownlow medal, but it is leading a side towards ultimate success that is most important for Cotchin over the next nine years.

2. Dyson Heppell (Essendon)
A ball magnet who finds it on the inside and out. Continues to show great poise and has improved markedly in his leadership and in an off field sense. Has the sort of look that can be marketed around over the coming years and has the game to back it up. Seems the type of player that is going to just avoid all those injury curses that can bestow the best players.

1. Jaegar O’Meara (Gold Coast)
The only Sun on the list and the only can’t miss player right now. The difference between O’Meara and Heppell is sizeable. O’Meara was born to play this game with his body size and has a mind set that could be looked back on as genius in a few years time. While he is still growing, developing and maturing everything that O’Meara presents both off and on field is that of a super star in the making. O’Meara will be regarded as the best of his time. That debate between Ablett senior and junior will be between Suns Ablett and O’Meara over the next nine years.

 

[MrTripleC]

73 Day Warning

De Fine Five
With the AFL giving a rest to eight teams this weekend the Define Nine becomes the De Fine Five for this weekend. Unfortunately for the AFL viewing public giving teams like Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, Adelaide and Collingwood a rest this week; the five remaining matches lead a lot to be desired with five top eight teams battling five teams from the lowly rungs of the ladder.

5. St Kilda Vs Fremantle – Etihad Stadium – Saturday 4.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
St Kilda: Six games left in a stellar career, enjoy the last moments of the Lenny Hayes show. The guy with the rock star name has had a rock star career. Well except for that vaunted number one hit.
Fremantle: The reaction that Ross Lyon gives Hayes at the end of this match. Watch out of a pen and piece of paper in Lyon’s back pocket. He could be trying to get the jump on the league and get a signature on a shiny new assistant coach contract for Hayes.

4. GWS Vs Geelong – Skoda Stadium – Saturday 7.40pm Seven
What to watch for:
GWS: Josh Hunt deserves a game against his former team however that is not a forgone conclusion as GWS continue to promote the youth of its list.
Geelong: Percentage, teams claim that they don’t care about percentage and that is more about getting the win. However Geelong’s weak percentage costs it a game against the four other teams fighting for the top four. Barring a draw in the next six weeks; they need a rapid shot to that percentage.

3. Western Vs Essendon – Etihad Stadium – Sunday 4.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
Western: Winners of two of their last three, Western have as they did in 2013 captured the imagination of the football public with seemingly rapid improvement on the youth of the list.
Essendon: Winners of two their last three, Essendon are again backs to the wall in full on FU mode. However this time the AFL has no cat in the bag to snuff Essendon’s finals chances. A win here puts the Bombers one step closer to hurting the AFL where they hurt most, finals.

MUST SEE MATCH OF THE WEEK
2. Carlton Vs North Melbourne – Etihad Stadium – Friday 7.50pm Seven
What to watch for:
Carlton: Chris Judd, champions tend to have a history of putting in immortal performances when their football mortality is questioned.
North Melbourne: The forward line for the Kangaroos. Guys like Lindsay Thomas and Drew Petrie have had a history of dominating the Carlton defence. It is a new look defence for the Blues but the Kangaroos forwards are well known and have well documented success.

MOST SIGNIFICANT MATCH OF THE WEEK
1. Port Adelaide Vs Melbourne – Adelaide Oval – Sunday 12.40pm FOX
What to watch for:
Port Adelaide: Jay Schulz, has really dominated the bottom six teams in 2014 and with no obvious match up for Schulz the two options are Melbourne clog the back half or Schulz goes off. For the sake of this game hope is for the latter.
Melbourne: A typical defensive performance however the bonus point of the hope of keeping their unbeaten streak at the Adelaide Oval intact for the 2014 season.

 

[MrTripleC]

72 Day Warning

Friday’s Fab Five Forecaster Forecast

After hitting on two on the opening two weeks of the Fab Five, it was back down to one last weekend. As always the Fab Five is a fun way of things to look for over the weekend.


Last Week 1/5

Overall 5/15


Round 18A Fab Five
1. No game decided by less than 30
Five games in Round 18A and five top eight teams against five bottom ten teams. That tells you everything you need to know about this round. It is another one of those weekends to get brownie points with the wife or girlfriend and go shopping. Save for finals. Or even round 20. Its getting closer.

2. Jay Schulz and Chris Dawes combine for 10 majors
Two underrated burly key forwards going against undersized and outmatched defences seems the weekend for an old school shootout. Hopefully Paul Roos releases the chains so these two can go head to head all Sunday afternoon long.

3. GWS outpossess Geelong but still lose
In some ways GWS have copied the Geelong model in trying to control games by controlling the ball. They have got the control the ball thing down, sadly though it will be left to Geelong to control this game with or without the ball.

4. Jon Griffen has the most hitouts this weekend.
Griffen may be the best backup in the league and the best ruckman who plays less than five games every year. It is an embarrassment of riches that West Australia's AFL teams have in the ruck and Griffen likely goes to town on the St Kilda ruck division in the hopes of pressing his own September claims.

5. Brad Scott praises Chris Judd post match
Brad has toned down the whinging recently and now it is time for the Fab Five to recognise. Brad has always been a fan of Judd and expect him to be glowing of the Carlton and West Coast great post match.


Round 17 Fab Five Review
1. Liam Picken goes to David Swallow
STRIKE - New role for Picken taking the resting midfielder forward.

2. Essendon and Collingwood decided by a kick or less
STRIKE - Oh wow. Wrong. Next.

3. Eddie Betts goalless
STRIKE - Stupid Eddie getting one cheap goal over the back of the pack from the goal square. So close.

4. GWS and Melbourne combine for under 100 points
HIT - Both teams battled to 50. GWS just got there, Melbourne did not.

5. Brad Scott whinges about St Kilda's treatment of Nick Dal Santo
STRIKE - Okay, Brad has really cut his whinging down post match. Calls for a new strategy.


Enjoy the weekend and keep up with MrTripleC on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM.

 

[MrTripleC]

71 Day Warning

The 225 Day Medal
The warning continues with more votes in ‘The 225 Day Medal’ revealed. This weeks round 16 and 17.

Round 16
North Melbourne 108 d Hawthorn 88
3. Levi Greenwood (North Melbourne)
2. Lachie Hansen (North Melbourne)
1. Jack Gunston (Hawthorn)
Richmond 79 d Brisbane 54
3. Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
2. Brandon Ellis (Richmond)
1. Ty Vickery (Richmond)
Adelaide 140 d GWS 72
3. Rory Sloane (Adelaide)
2. James Podsiadly (Adelaide)
1. Eddie Betts (Adelaide)
Gold Coast 80 d Collingwood 75
3. David Swallow (Gold Coast)
2. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
1. Jaeger O’Meara (Gold Coast)
Fremantle 97 d Melbourne 34
3. Michael Barlow (Fremantle)
2. Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
1. Nick Suban (Fremantle)
Essendon 62 d Port Adelaide 60
3. David Zaharakis (Essendon)
2. Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide)
1. David Myers (Essendon)
Carlton 151 d St Kilda 66
3. Andrejs Everitt (Carlton)
2. Sam Docherty (Carlton)
1. Mark Murphy (Carlton)
Sydney 79 d West Coast 51
3. Luke Parker (Sydney)
2. Ben McGlynn (Sydney)
1. Matt Priddis (West Coast)
Geelong 69 d Western 56
3. Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)
2. Steve Johnson (Geelong)
1. Marcus Bontempelli (Western)

Round 17
Hawthorn 104 d Adelaide 92
3. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
2. Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide)
1. Josh Jenkins (Adelaide)
Geelong 102 d Melbourne 36
3. Joel Selwood (Geelong)
2. Steven Motlop (Geelong)
1. Steve Johnson (Geelong)
North Melbourne 92 d St Kilda 33
3. Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne)
2. Ryan Bastanac (North Melbourne)
1. Sam Wright (North Melbourne)
Western 94 d Gold Coast 66
3. Jackson Macrae (Western)
2. Matthew Boyd (Western)
1. Jaeger O’Meara (Gold Coast)
West Coast 76 d Brisbane 64
3. Luke Shuey (West Coast)
2. Dayne Zorko (Brisbane)
1. Sam Mayes (Brisbane)
Sydney 122 d Carlton 51
3. Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
2. Lance Franklin (Sydney)
1. Jarryd McVeigh (Sydney)
Richmond 126 d Port Adelaide 106
3. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
2. Jack Riewoldt (Richmond)
1. Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
Essendon 103 d Collingwood 39
3. Brent Stanton (Essendon)
2. Paul Chapman (Essendon)
1. Jake Carlisle (Essendon)
Fremantle 136 d GWS 60
3. Tendai Mzungu (Fremantle)
2. Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
1. Lee Spurr (Fremantle)

Leaderboard (Rounds 1-7 + 13-17 Counted)
17 – Gary Ablett (Gold Coast)
16 – Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
14 – Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
14 – Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
12 – Callan Ward (GWS)
12 – Michael Barlow (Fremantle)
12 – Joel Selwood (Geelong)
11 – Jimmy Bartel (Geelong)

 

[MrTripleC]

69 Day Warning

Re Fine Five
With a special Re Fine Five edition please find following discussions on the Mike To Cam Show, follow on Twitter @MTC_MIKETOCAM; updated match rankings for round 18 week one factoring in strength of game importance and match play itself.

5. St Kilda 118 d Fremantle 60 (Unchanged)

4. Carlton 109 d North Melbourne 86 (Down 2)

3. Port Adelaide 72 d Melbourne 69 (Down 2)

2. Geelong 94 d GWS 87 (Up 2)

1. Essendon 101 d Western 94 (Up 2)