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When the fight was first announced like most people I wasn't a fan of it and was expecting a Gaethje vs Ferguson 2.0. Tony's chin was the worst thing for him in that fight, he would've been better off getting clean KO'd and not taking all that damage. Now we've got Gaethje vs Max, with Max having possibly the GOAT chin in MMA. Considering he has never even been knocked down let alone KO'd and taking into account the quality he has fought; he would have to be a strong candidate. This combined with my initial memory of Max vs Poirer and remembering the power difference between Poirer and Max, it felt like Max was being put out to the slaughter with the potential of ruining the rest of his career.

However, after rewatching the Max vs Poirer 2 fight I had forgotten that Max actually had Poirer hurt at stages, you can see in the below video Max was wearing Poirer out and would have him in trouble against the cage but then do something stupid like a flying knee to allow Poirer to tie up.




Max was a lot more competitive than I remembered, probably because Poirer would simply have the bigger shots, but Max was definitely tagging him and was the one putting the pressure on for a lot of the fight. Over half of the MMA Media who scored the fight had it 48-47 Poirer which is not the beating I remember.


1709647013622.png 1709647032670.png


Looking at the stats of the fight its clear that Max was able to hit Poirer enough, he just didn't have the same pop to stun Poirer with the one shot. Max would have to throw combos and constantly pressure Poirer to get Poirer uncomfortable whereas Poirer would be able to change the momentum with one shot.


1709647232576.png


So, it's obvious that the power difference was the issue, and we all know that Gaethje hits just as hard as Poirer if not harder. However, it looks like Max is actually moving up to LW properly this time and putting on weight. Unlike the Poirer fight, which was announced at the end of February and then took place mid-April, Max has 3 months to prepare this time which is twice the amount of time he had for Poirer. Looking at this post he looks like he may actually walk into the cage as a reasonable sized LW.


1709647786854.png

Gaethje also has weaknesses that Max's strengths could exploit. Gaethje has gassed out or at least looked to be struggling in the 3rd round vs Poirer 1/Alvarez/Fiviez. Can Max's insane cardio and forward pressure exploit this? Could Max's chin be able to walk through Justin's bombs to make Justin wilt? Gaethje has a solid chin, but it's been proven that he can be KO'd/TKO'd and in many other fights he's been rocked. Can Max manage to do what Alvarez did to Gaethje and get him to the point of exhaustion that he basically slumps into your upcoming knee? He will have an extra two rounds to do so.

One thing Max has to be careful of is those Gaethje leg kicks as he has been susceptible to leg kicks and Gaethje is the last person you want to take them from. However, Volkanovski in the first two fights chopped Max's legs up but in the third fight Max made adjustments and Volk was able to land a whole lot less. If he can do the same vs Gaethje then it will improve his chances greatly, just try and avoid the increase in headshots taken.


Fight 1:

1709649023669.png

Fight 2:

1709649049838.png


Fight 3:

1709649099668.png


Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself because I don't want to see another Tony situation, especially to Holloway. Does anyone else give him a chance or are we going to see a ruthless beatdown with Gaethje slowly rearranging Max's face because he won't fall down.
 
Danger_Porpus said:
When the fight was first announced like most people I wasn't a fan of it and was expecting a Gaethje vs Ferguson 2.0. Tony's chin was the worst thing for him in that fight, he would've been better off getting clean KO'd and not taking all that damage. Now we've got Gaethje vs Max, with Max having possibly the GOAT chin in MMA. Considering he has never even been knocked down let alone KO'd and taking into account the quality he has fought; he would have to be a strong candidate. This combined with my initial memory of Max vs Poirer and remembering the power difference between Poirer and Max, it felt like Max was being put out to the slaughter with the potential of ruining the rest of his career.

However, after rewatching the Max vs Poirer 2 fight I had forgotten that Max actually had Poirer hurt at stages, you can see in the below video Max was wearing Poirer out and would have him in trouble against the cage but then do something stupid like a flying knee to allow Poirer to tie up.




Max was a lot more competitive than I remembered, probably because Poirer would simply have the bigger shots, but Max was definitely tagging him and was the one putting the pressure on for a lot of the fight. Over half of the MMA Media who scored the fight had it 48-47 Poirer which is not the beating I remember.


View attachment 1920523 View attachment 1920524


Looking at the stats of the fight its clear that Max was able to hit Poirer enough, he just didn't have the same pop to stun Poirer with the one shot. Max would have to throw combos and constantly pressure Poirer to get Poirer uncomfortable whereas Poirer would be able to change the momentum with one shot.


View attachment 1920528


So, it's obvious that the power difference was the issue, and we all know that Gaethje hits just as hard as Poirer if not harder. However, it looks like Max is actually moving up to LW properly this time and putting on weight. Unlike the Poirer fight, which was announced at the end of February and then took place mid-April, Max has 3 months to prepare this time which is twice the amount of time he had for Poirer. Looking at this post he looks like he may actually walk into the cage as a reasonable sized LW.


View attachment 1920530

Gaethje also has weaknesses that Max's strengths could exploit. Gaethje has gassed out or at least looked to be struggling in the 3rd round vs Poirer 1/Alvarez/Fiviez. Can Max's insane cardio and forward pressure exploit this? Could Max's chin be able to walk through Justin's bombs to make Justin wilt? Gaethje has a solid chin, but it's been proven that he can be KO'd/TKO'd and in many other fights he's been rocked. Can Max manage to do what Alvarez did to Gaethje and get him to the point of exhaustion that he basically slumps into your upcoming knee? He will have an extra two rounds to do so.

One thing Max has to be careful of is those Gaethje leg kicks as he has been susceptible to leg kicks and Gaethje is the last person you want to take them from. However, Volkanovski in the first two fights chopped Max's legs up but in the third fight Max made adjustments and Volk was able to land a whole lot less. If he can do the same vs Gaethje then it will improve his chances greatly, just try and avoid the increase in headshots taken.


Fight 1:

View attachment 1920536

Fight 2:

View attachment 1920537


Fight 3:

View attachment 1920539


Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself because I don't want to see another Tony situation, especially to Holloway. Does anyone else give him a chance or are we going to see a ruthless beatdown with Gaethje slowly rearranging Max's face because he won't fall down.
Click to expand...


Appreciate the analysis, fairly substantial effort there. And I see Max bleeding a lot, Gaethje's defence isn't great so will get hit but he has the power advantage at LW for sure.
 
Danger_Porpus said:
When the fight was first announced like most people I wasn't a fan of it and was expecting a Gaethje vs Ferguson 2.0. Tony's chin was the worst thing for him in that fight, he would've been better off getting clean KO'd and not taking all that damage. Now we've got Gaethje vs Max, with Max having possibly the GOAT chin in MMA. Considering he has never even been knocked down let alone KO'd and taking into account the quality he has fought; he would have to be a strong candidate. This combined with my initial memory of Max vs Poirer and remembering the power difference between Poirer and Max, it felt like Max was being put out to the slaughter with the potential of ruining the rest of his career.

However, after rewatching the Max vs Poirer 2 fight I had forgotten that Max actually had Poirer hurt at stages, you can see in the below video Max was wearing Poirer out and would have him in trouble against the cage but then do something stupid like a flying knee to allow Poirer to tie up.




Max was a lot more competitive than I remembered, probably because Poirer would simply have the bigger shots, but Max was definitely tagging him and was the one putting the pressure on for a lot of the fight. Over half of the MMA Media who scored the fight had it 48-47 Poirer which is not the beating I remember.


View attachment 1920523 View attachment 1920524


Looking at the stats of the fight its clear that Max was able to hit Poirer enough, he just didn't have the same pop to stun Poirer with the one shot. Max would have to throw combos and constantly pressure Poirer to get Poirer uncomfortable whereas Poirer would be able to change the momentum with one shot.


View attachment 1920528


So, it's obvious that the power difference was the issue, and we all know that Gaethje hits just as hard as Poirer if not harder. However, it looks like Max is actually moving up to LW properly this time and putting on weight. Unlike the Poirer fight, which was announced at the end of February and then took place mid-April, Max has 3 months to prepare this time which is twice the amount of time he had for Poirer. Looking at this post he looks like he may actually walk into the cage as a reasonable sized LW.


View attachment 1920530

Gaethje also has weaknesses that Max's strengths could exploit. Gaethje has gassed out or at least looked to be struggling in the 3rd round vs Poirer 1/Alvarez/Fiviez. Can Max's insane cardio and forward pressure exploit this? Could Max's chin be able to walk through Justin's bombs to make Justin wilt? Gaethje has a solid chin, but it's been proven that he can be KO'd/TKO'd and in many other fights he's been rocked. Can Max manage to do what Alvarez did to Gaethje and get him to the point of exhaustion that he basically slumps into your upcoming knee? He will have an extra two rounds to do so.

One thing Max has to be careful of is those Gaethje leg kicks as he has been susceptible to leg kicks and Gaethje is the last person you want to take them from. However, Volkanovski in the first two fights chopped Max's legs up but in the third fight Max made adjustments and Volk was able to land a whole lot less. If he can do the same vs Gaethje then it will improve his chances greatly, just try and avoid the increase in headshots taken.


Fight 1:

View attachment 1920536

Fight 2:

View attachment 1920537


Fight 3:

View attachment 1920539


Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself because I don't want to see another Tony situation, especially to Holloway. Does anyone else give him a chance or are we going to see a ruthless beatdown with Gaethje slowly rearranging Max's face because he won't fall down.
Click to expand...

Great post, appreciate the thorough breakdown.

I'm favouring Gaethje but it's got nothing to do with Holloway being out of his league. It looks as if Max is doing a proper move up in weight class, and his frame actually suits it quite well. He went into the Poirier fight feeling invincible, on a 13 fight win streak, and the result was some pretty silly decisions at crucial moments. If the larger frame means some more power, combined with his all-time chin, it could be Gaethje on the receiving end of a beating. That being said, like with his matchups with Volk, I believe Max's lack of striking versatility might prove his undoing against Justin.
 
burge13 said:
Interesting - I'll need to rewatch that as I remember Poirer shots landing far more noticeably than Max. Gaethje in my mind was going to cruise here
Click to expand...

Poirers hits definitely landed more noticeably and I remember thinking that at the time however as time went on I started to look on it as more and more of a one-sided fight than it really was. That's why I think a huge factor will be if Max has committed to 155 and it has given him more power. I also rate Poirer's gas tank higher than Gaethje's, 5th round Hooker, so can Max make it that...

the_interloper said:
Appreciate the analysis, fairly substantial effort there. And I see Max bleeding a lot, Gaethje's defence isn't great so will get hit but he has the power advantage at LW for sure.
Click to expand...

Cheers mate. Yep, if Volk damaged Max that much it's a worry what Gaethje will do. Agreed both get hit too much, it's basically Gaethje's power and decent chin vs Max's iron chin and suspect power. If it gets past the first two rounds though does Gaethje's finishing ability decrease and Max starts to push the pace. It's interesting because I will never underrate Gaethje's power but before Poirer he hadn't finished anyone in 4 years.

1709910366600.png



RobbyRoy said:
Great post, appreciate the thorough breakdown.

I'm favouring Gaethje but it's got nothing to do with Holloway being out of his league. It looks as if Max is doing a proper move up in weight class, and his frame actually suits it quite well. He went into the Poirier fight feeling invincible, on a 13 fight win streak, and the result was some pretty silly decisions at crucial moments. If the larger frame means some more power, combined with his all-time chin, it could be Gaethje on the receiving end of a beating. That being said, like with his matchups with Volk, I believe Max's lack of striking versatility might prove his undoing against Justin.
Click to expand...

Thanks mate.

Completely agree but it's not like Gaethje has Volk's versatility/stance switches or fight IQ. Gaethje's main go to is to get in close and dirty box, if Max can avoid this he's well on his way but he does love to "BANG". I was going to say his height/range should help him but I always seem to think Gaethje is shorter than he really is...

1709912327366.png 1709912347861.png
 
If Holloway can avoid big hits and get through the first two rounds without absorbing too much damage I think he will run over Gaethje.
 
Danger_Porpus said:
Poirers hits definitely landed more noticeably and I remember thinking that at the time however as time went on I started to look on it as more and more of a one-sided fight than it really was. That's why I think a huge factor will be if Max has committed to 155 and it has given him more power. I also rate Poirer's gas tank higher than Gaethje's, 5th round Hooker, so can Max make it that...



Cheers mate. Yep, if Volk damaged Max that much it's a worry what Gaethje will do. Agreed both get hit too much, it's basically Gaethje's power and decent chin vs Max's iron chin and suspect power. If it gets past the first two rounds though does Gaethje's finishing ability decrease and Max starts to push the pace. It's interesting because I will never underrate Gaethje's power but before Poirer he hadn't finished anyone in 4 years.

View attachment 1923141





Thanks mate.

Completely agree but it's not like Gaethje has Volk's versatility/stance switches or fight IQ. Gaethje's main go to is to get in close and dirty box, if Max can avoid this he's well on his way but he does love to "BANG". I was going to say his height/range should help him but I always seem to think Gaethje is shorter than he really is...

View attachment 1923147 View attachment 1923148
Click to expand...
No not the IQ or stance versatility, but he's well-coached and disciplined, for the most part (not adverse to getting sucked into fire-fights). He's actually a strong range fighter when he chooses to be, using a decent reach and his elite low-kicking game to take the fight out of his opponents. This is what he needs to do to Max.
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
Because a lot of fans and execs are praying BSD will violently put Poirier out to pasture 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
He hogged a top 5 spot by being inactive and only fighting strikers, title shots, or guys he knew he could beat. I hope he loses today for some fresh match ups

Armen & BSD are 2 that could be near the top now. Think im forgetting someone too but LW is too stacked to keep having Gaethje, Poirer, Chandler near top 5...
 
burge13 said:
LW is too stacked to keep having Gaethje, Poirer, Chandler near top 5...
Click to expand...
They need to start beating those guys then. BSD couldn't do it so why should he be top 5? I agree new talent is great to see near the top but to be ranked as one of the best at minimum you need to beat one of the best.

Justin V Max will give Max the opportunity to beat one to go top 5 if he moves up full time.
 
I think Max is going to get murdered my Gaethje sadly, would love to see them go to war but seeing the damage Max took against Volk makes it scary thinking about what Gaethje could do to him :oops:
 
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