Analysis The last five games and the quest for top four/top two

[MC Extra Dollop]

It's probably about time to check what we need to happen in our remaining games to set up a successful finals campaign. Funnily enough, 10 days ago, I think most of us would have simply been hoping to hang on to a home Elimination Final. And now, simply by beating the teams that are currently 15th and 16th on the ladder, due to other surprise results, we've got the inside track to a top four finish, as a bare minimum.

Probably worth remembering that second or third might be academic now, if Hawthorn is in the other spot. Of course, it's best to just finish top two if it's at all possible, to avoid having to worry about the other results to get a Qualifying Final at the MCG.

If we're seriously gunning for top two, with our uncompetitive percentage, 17-5 (4-1 from our remaining games) is probably the bare minimum required. Then, the simple way for our top two aspirations to be realised would be for us to beat Hawthorn and Fremantle and Hawthorn to drop either their game to Sydney next week, or Fremantle in Perth in Round 21. That would put them both on 16-6 (at best) and us on track for 17-5 (if we can win two of the remaining games against North, Carlton and Brisbane).

The ladder, besides us, currently looks like this (teams with a game in hand asterisked).

Sydney* 52 points, 143.5%
Hawthorn* 48 points, 139.9%
Fremantle 48 points, 133.2%
Port Adelaide 48 points, 132.4%
North Melbourne 40 points, 112.5%

And those teams have the following runs home:

Sydney: Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (SCG) - 6 days, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) - 8 days, St Kilda (SCG) - 7 days, Western Bulldogs (Etihad) - 8 days, Richmond (ANZ Stadium)
Hawthorn: Sydney (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Aurora) - 8 days, Melbourne (MCG) - 6 days, Fremantle (Patersons) - 8 days, Geelong (MCG) - 6 days, Collingwood (MCG)
Fremantle: Carlton (Patersons) - 12 days, Geelong (Simonds) - 9 days, Hawthorn (Patersons) - 8 days, Brisbane (Gabba) - 7 days, Port Adelaide (Patersons)
Port Adelaide: Collingwood (MCG) - 14 days, Sydney (Adelaide Oval) - 6 days, Gold Coast (Metricon) - 7 days, Carlton (Adelaide Oval) - 6 days, Fremantle (Patersons)
North Melbourne: Geelong (Etihad) - 15 days, GWS (Spotless Stadium) - 7 days, Western Bulldogs (Etihad) - 8 days, Adelaide (Blundstone Arena) - 6 days, Melbourne (Etihad)

Now, in most sports, or usually even the AFL, you could decipher a bit from the above, just by filtering out the games where one team is significantly higher than another on the ladder than its opponent and has more to play for (as is often the case at this time of the year). But the past couple of weeks and especially this weekend, has thrown such conventional wisdom out the window. I mean, Sydney should beat Hawthorn - without Lake and Gibson - next week, but I'm kind of expecting Hawthorn to knock the Swans off now and keep us in third (not necessarily such a bad thing, with five games still to go). The Fremantle v Port Adelaide game in Round 23 could be for a top four berth and in the North v Adelaide and Hawthorn v Collingwood games, the top four contenders could be facing an opponent that is playing for a finals spot.

So, what would we say each team's chance is to finish 17-5 (which again, is probably what Geelong should be striving for from here)? If I had to gauge it as a percentage, I'd say it would be:

Sydney (4-2): 90%
Hawthorn (5-1): 40%
Fremantle (5-0): 30%
Port Adelaide (5-0): 10%
North Melbourne (N/A): 0%

Which means 17-5 will be a good thing for the Cats, especially considering that it would also mean we've handed at least one of Hawthorn/Fremantle a loss. So, what do we need to do to get there?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

To avoid making a 2000 word post, I’ll start another one. It’s actually quite easy to project our next five games from this stage, as we barely have a player who will seriously contend for a finals guernsey that won’t be available for the North Melbourne game (touch wood).

Round 19 v North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium, Saturday night, 2 August)

Expected returns: Mark Blicavs, Allen Christensen

There’s no way complacency should be a legitimate excuse for the team to put in another sub-par performance against the Kangaroos. They should be heading into this game just expecting that North will come out all guns blazing, as they always do against us at Etihad.

The difference between fifth-eighth might be all academic for North, but they’d be keen to avoid the possibility of an away final against Port Adelaide, which could come into the equation, if they drop below sixth. More than that, they will just want to make amends for another ordinary effort against an also-ran.

Besides Ben Brown, who presumably will be straight back in for Daw or Black, it doesn’t look like North will have any players of note ready to return from injury for Round 19, so if Brad Scott swings the axe, the players to come in will be from the VFL: the likes of McKenzie, Harper and Mullett.

We can expect ‘good’ North to show up, but honestly, with the players available for selection, several VFL players keeping the pressure on and what’s at stake for us, if we’re switched on, we really should be good enough to beat them.

Round 20 v Fremantle (Simonds Stadium, Saturday night, 9 August)

Expected returns: none

Ordinarily, this might have been one of those late-season road trips that Ross Lyon might put the cue in the rack for to focus on the Hawks at home the following week, but they just don’t look to have that luxury this year. Ballantyne and Sandilands (presumably) will be back and Hill, Ibbotson and Walters are all a big chance to be in the side. A trip to the Cattery in the depths of Winter wouldn’t necessarily be top of the Dockers’ things to do list, but they will have nine days to recover before playing this game.

A recurring theme in our games against the Dockers of late is letting them get out to a huge lead at the start of the game and then trying to fight our way back in the remaining three quarters (or second half, in the case of the 2012 Elimination Final). And that’s what happened again in the Round 9 meeting this year, with the Cats going goalless in the first quarter, Fremantle taking a 30 point lead into the first change and then holding Geelong at arm’s length for the rest of the game, ultimately winning by 32. In contrast, the Cats were well on top at the start of last year’s Qualifying Final, failing to capitalise on many golden early opportunities. Hawkins was absent in the Elimination Final, but played in the most recent game and caused the Dockers some problems, slotting three from very limited opportunities. The beefed-up ruck division was a big disappointment though, with Sandilands and Clarke dominating the hit outs and the Dockers well on top in the clearances and inside 50s.

Whichever rucks from Simpson/McIntosh/Blicavs play this game must curb Sandilands’ influence, as he appears to be a set in stone 2/3 Brownlow votes every time he plays us, these days. Mundy and Barlow --also tend to have big games against us and Barlow, incredibly, is perfect against the Cats from five starts. Barlow, especially, is the type of mid that Guthrie could do a good job against (Guthrie wasn’t able to stop Fyfe last time, although he did get a load of the ball himself). Another area of concern are Walters and Ballantyne together in the forward line. One of the two – fine. Both in Fremantle’s forward 50 – a bit iffy for us.

And the biggie is for one of our mids to finally master Ryan Crowley (or, at least, to avoid a suspension). If Johnson or Selwood can manage to break the shackles, that will go a long way to us winning the game. And failing that, someone else needs to step up and get Selwood/Johnson’s 30-odd and a goal or two: Christensen, Horlin-Smith, Duncan, Caddy.

Round 21 v Carlton (Etihad Stadium, Friday night, 15 August)

Expected returns: none

If the Blues didn’t earn our respect with the cliffhanger in Round 12, they should have with their performance against North Melbourne on Friday night. They’re clearly keen to take a few scalps in the run home, though they look like they’ll be slightly weakened, with Menzel and Everitt probably unavailable for this one. On the other hand, Carrazzo will be back and, like Crowley, he’s had success against Selwood and Johnson in the past. Kreuzer will be a chance to get up as well.

Tom Hawkins was absolutely immense in the last meeting, but, as far as I’m concerned, the really important players for our forward structure will be the second tall (probably Kersten) and a genuine crumber or two. The reliance on Hawkins in Round 12 bordered on the unhealthy. Walker wasn’t a bad foil for Hawkins last time, but we need more of a target, to keep Rowe or Jamison honest.

The biggest concern of the last meeting was Gibbs’ thorough domination of Selwood, though, to our skipper’s credit, he did bob up for the match winning goal. Horlin-Smith and Stokes had good games for the Cats, combining for five crucial goals and getting plenty of the ball.

We did pretty well last time with the Blicavs/McIntosh ruck combo against Warnock and Casboult and the decision of how to set that up might depend on whether the Blues go in with Warnock/Wood, with Casboult and Kreuzer. Judd didn’t play; Waite played, but was a non-factor; and Murphy was quiet. For us, this was Motlop’s last ‘shake off the rust’ game, Varcoe missed and Caddy and Christensen were still a few weeks off returning. We will probably go in a fair bit stronger than we were back then, but so will they. At the end of the day, it will probably come down to not allowing Gibbs (or Murphy) having another career night and almost beating Geelong by himself.

Round 22 v Hawthorn (MCG, Saturday night, 23 August)

Expected returns: none

Ok, the first thing to notice about this one is that Hawthorn will be coming back from WA on a six-day break. We’re staying in Victoria and have an extra two days. That’s a huge, huge advantage in late August, when there’s two pretty evenly-matched teams. Lake, Gibson and Sewell will be available for Hawthorn, but Rioli probably won’t be.

It will be a pretty different prospect with Hawthorn’s defence being significantly bolstered, as Hawkins (in disguise as Josh Walker, for a fair part of the game) played the hero in Round 5. Steve Johnson starred as well (despite a fair few head scratching moments), while Selwood was well-held by Will Langford. It was actually a pretty comfortable win in the end, with Hawthorn having no answer for Hawkins in the last quarter. We’d want to find more targets to goal than we displayed last time (Enright bobbing up with a couple was a nice surprise). Motlop will be a welcome addition from the last time the teams met.

Both teams will be desperate for a win, so hopefully a more manageable lead-in to the game will see our boys home.

Round 23 v Brisbane (Simonds Stadium, 29-31 August)

Expected returns: none

Not a lot really to say about this one. We’ll go in with (in all likelihood) everything to play for; Brisbane will go in with nothing to play for. That differs a bit from last year, where the Lions were an outside shot to claim eighth spot with a win. No repeat of last year (either game, for that matter), please.

 

[BIGDAVE]

Just win every game, simple

 

[catempire]

Good effort MC.

To me, the importance of the North game can't be undersold. It is a really big risk of a game simply because I cannot trust them or us to be 100% on the ball. I think at our respective bests we win but who knows whether that's what each side will bring. But moreover, if we win that I think we can afford to go 1-1 in the Hawthorn and Fremantle games and still make top two, and that is a pretty likely result given we are probably 50:50 going into both those games.

 

[Scottland2007]

Freo and Hawks are 8 point games, if there is such a thing. Those 2 games are basically finals in August.

 

[year of the cat]

To finish top 2 I think we have to win the lot as Freo are likely (or were before this round anyway..) to win the rest of theirs.

I still think, despite results going our way of late, we have to win every game between now and the end of the year to win the flag. We won't do it from 3rd or 4th assuming Sydney and Freo finish 1-2.

 

[fpm84]

I am so excited for our next two games. I actually wish we didn't have a week off.

Wonder how our premiership odds will change if we beat North and one/both of Freo or Hawthorn...

For what it's worth, I think we have the talent to beat Freo but we'll have to modify our gamelan. No bombing the ball to Hawkins, Bews in (or Guthrie to the backline) to play on Ballantyne, no Selwood/SJ getting sucked into Crowley's garbage.

As for the Hawks, there's no reason why we shouldn't be confident going into every encounter against them. Motlop, Christensen and Caddy will be big inclusions from round 5 and as MC points out, they'll be coming off a 6-day break following a tough away game v Fremantle which could be telling if it's close in the last quarter.

 

[vealesy]

Freo and Hawks are 8 point games, if there is such a thing. Those 2 games are basically finals in August.

There is and they are.

But its no good beating them if we dont show up for every other game.

Just win em. Win em all, cats.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

There is and they are.

But its no good beating them if we dont show up for every other game.

Just win em. Win em all, cats.

the only thing that matters... winning!

 

[year of the cat]

I am so excited for our next two games. I actually wish we didn't have a week off.

Wonder how our premiership odds will change if we beat North and one/both of Freo or Hawthorn...

For what it's worth, I think we have the talent to beat Freo but we'll have to modify our gamelan. No bombing the ball to Hawkins, Bews in (or Guthrie to the backline) to play on Ballantyne, no Selwood/SJ getting sucked into Crowley's garbage.

As for the Hawks, there's no reason why we shouldn't be confident going into every encounter against them. Motlop, Christensen and Caddy will be big inclusions from round 5 and as MC points out, they'll be coming off a 6-day break following a tough away game v Fremantle which could be telling if it's close in the last quarter.

That's a very important point you raise re Bews. I think he just has to come in for one of our tall defenders. We have buggered up these match ups in the past with Freo and can't afford to repeat it. I'd bring him in for either Lonergan or Rivers - Rivers is in far better form but Lonergan is probably physically a better match up on their resting ruckman.

Bews and Kelly can start as our two smaller backs initially - if it goes pear shaped then Guthrie to be swung down back.

 

[Jon Douglas]

We will know so much more after we play North. That is the key game. If we beat North then we will finish no lower than 5 th and that means a home final. That is the minimum we need.

Sure it would be great to finish top 4 and have a double chance and a home if we lose the first final but let's not get ahead of ourselves. We played pretty ordinary footy against the Giants IMO.

If we beat the Roos then we can start talking up Top 4 - and if we beat Freo Top 2.

 

[Vdubs]

The best/worst thing about this season, and the next 5 weeks, is that every week from now on, we have the potential to be lauded as a top 2 chance or written off.
I'm more than happy just to see how it goes week by week. Absolutely impossible for me to prognosticate this year.
The fact that we are yet again guaranteed top 8 and better this year is an achievement in itself- it is not meant to be- "the system" is designed for us to be in the Saints/Dogs category.
Yet here we are, again, with the optimists thinking we are GF bound, and the pessimists thinking we are lucky to be top 4.
It's an amazing ride following Geelong. Really glad my dad moved to Geelong in the 1950's and we ended up as St Joey's boys destined to follow Geelong forever. The 70's, 80's, 90's had their challenges, but we as a team, have always had that spark or freak player to captivate us in the leaner times. And nothing needs to be said about the last 10 years.
I have no expectations at all, and very happy to just wait and see.

 

[Rainfall]

Brilliant post MC I just can't believe it looks set that we're going to finish 2nd, the same as last year however without Chappy, Pods, Hunt, and Corey. 95% of our supporters on the official Geelong page or Gysenn's if I remember correctly were calling for Scott's head about finishing those four blokes. They weren't just hoping he would get the sack I remember seeing people pathetically wish death upon him and all sorts of crap. Yet it looks like Scotty is some kind of mad genius. Glad to be in the 5% and the way CS is going about it I wouldn't be surprised if he's still our coach by the time our 22 year olds are all retired. Next 700 game coaching legend in the making besides he already got a premiership which means he's tied down for life, any club would want him.

I think Hawthorn will get the better of Freo but we'll get the better of them. I think Port'll lose 3 possibly 4 depending on when they get JTG and Carlile back. If both are back fit before the week they face GCS then they'll only lose 3.

I also think Essendon have as much right as North to be listed in the original post with their home run due to the fact that after 18 rounds, that they're equal and that from a personal opinion Essendon and North have equal draws. Alike with North I believe Essendon will also win 4/5 with both of them to lose their next match each.

Essendon: Sydney (SCG) - 15 days, Richmond (MCG) - 7 days, West Coast (Ethiad) - 8 days, Gold Coast (Ethiad) - 7 days & Carlton (MCG) - 6 days.

I seem to be getting:

1. Sydney 19.3.76 (155.4%)
2. Geelong 18.4.72 (117.5%)
3. Hawthorn 16.6.64 (136.7%)
4. Fremantle 15.7.60 (137.9%)
-------------------------
5. North Melb 14.8.56 (124.6%)
6. Essendon 14.8.56 (112.6%)
7. Gold Coast 14.8.56 (109.3%)
8. Port Adel 13.9.52 (123.5%)
-----------------------------
9. Adelaide 13.9.52 (116%)
10. Collingwood 13.9.52 (108.6%)

I have Port to lose 4/5 despite what I said above about them due to the fact that I don't think both Carlile and Trengove will be back fit before their Gold Coast at Metricon match. Not to mention their current form is atrocious they could easily lose all 5 because Carlton nearly got us, hung in with Hawthorn for 3Q possibly due to being tired cause of facing us the week earlier, and then they claimed North's scalp. Also I have us at 18.4 is because we're no doubt the best team at winning ugly close games, but hey you can call me dreaming I don't mind, I probably am anyway.. This also depends if Essendon are to be *ed again this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We need Sydney to do us a favour and beat Hawthorn, because that will help make it hard for them to be top 2.

Basically the Freo game is a mini final, I expect Freo to win all their remaining games and if we finish on the same points as them we won't overhaul their %. We could still be top 2 if they drop either the Hawks or Port game but I don't think that's likely.

I am pretty confident we will win the other four games so it's the Freo game that determines top 4. Lose that and win the others and we still finish top 4 but not top 2, and in all likelihood travel in the first week.

Destiny is in our own hands though, win all 5 and we are basically certain to be top 2.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That's a very important point you raise re Bews. I think he just has to come in for one of our tall defenders. We have buggered up these match ups in the past with Freo and can't afford to repeat it. I'd bring him in for either Lonergan or Rivers - Rivers is in far better form but Lonergan is probably physically a better match up on their resting ruckman.

Bews and Kelly can start as our two smaller backs initially - if it goes pear shaped then Guthrie to be swung down back.

If thee is ever a game you put Guthrie back for it is the Freo game, I don't care what the plan is for him long term, to win a game that is basically a final you be pragmatic. They will ultra flood and try and hit us on the break and expose the defence for speed. Having a quick Guthrie to squash the hobbit out of the game has to be the plan.

Mainly though it is about not bombing the ball in because they always set extra defenders with the flood on Hawk. The problem is our game plan is based on rebound from half back, which is understandable as we have basically the best attacking defence in the comp, but it gives time to them to flood back. We need to change the gameplan for this one and make it to attack from stoppages (and to protect the defensive side of a stoppage with our plus one at the stoppage rather than at half back, because they are great at goals from stoppages) so we can get the ball to Hawkins 1 on 1 before they can flood that. Do that and we win, but it requires some massive tactical changes to how we normally play them.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I have decided I'm not going to think about it too much, but just enjoy it as it unfolds. There's so many permutations not just for the Catters but for the other clubs too. So instead of giving myself an aneurysm for no good reason, I'll just enjoy the footy come what may.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

If thee is ever a game you put Guthrie back for it is the Freo game, I don't care what the plan is for him long term, to win a game that is basically a final you be pragmatic. They will ultra flood and try and hit us on the break and expose the defence for speed. Having a quick Guthrie to squash the hobbit out of the game has to be the plan.

Mainly though it is about not bombing the ball in because they always set extra defenders with the flood on Hawk. The problem is our game plan is based on rebound from half back, which is understandable as we have basically the best attacking defence in the comp, but it gives time to them to flood back. We need to change the gameplan for this one and make it to attack from stoppages (and to protect the defensive side of a stoppage with our plus one at the stoppage rather than at half back, because they are great at goals from stoppages) so we can get the ball to Hawkins 1 on 1 before they can flood that. Do that and we win, but it requires some massive tactical changes to how we normally play them.

I reckon they have to be flexible with Guthrie's role for that one. If we are pretty much uncompetitive at the stoppages, in my opinion, Guthrie has to go to Mundy or Barlow. I'd go in with Bews and Enright and if Guthrie is required in defence, Enright can play more as a sweeper. If we're getting killed in the middle, we have to roll the dice with Bews to do the job, as far as I'm concerned.

Different tactics are required for whichever player Crowley tags too. Either Johnson or Selwood should drag Crowley to Barlow or Mundy, or they should go deep forward. If Crowley responds by going to the other one, they repeat the move.

 

[Baudolino]

We need Sydney to do us a favour and beat Hawthorn, because that will help make it hard for them to be top 2.

Basically the Freo game is a mini final, I expect Freo to win all their remaining games and if we finish on the same points as them we won't overhaul their %. We could still be top 2 if they drop either the Hawks or Port game but I don't think that's likely.

I am pretty confident we will win the other four games so it's the Freo game that determines top 4. Lose that and win the others and we still finish top 4 but not top 2, and in all likelihood travel in the first week.

Destiny is in our own hands though, win all 5 and we are basically certain to be top 2.

I really can't see Fremantle beating Hawthorn. Aside from the fact that the latter are just quite simply a better team than the former, recent history between the two sides has shown than Hawthorn, in stark contrast to us, tend to implement a game plan against the Dockers that shows some understanding of how important it is to adapt tactics according to your opposition.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Just win every game, simple

There's obviously a bit to be said for this K.I.S.S philosophy, however we do have a reasonably tough run home (though it is quite good, compared to the other top five teams: two teams already out of finals contention and no travel). Therefore I think it's worth bearing in mind that the 17-5 mark is likely to be enough to get where we want, which means we can approach the final five games with that in mind.

It's a bit simplistic for me to say, but I think it's clear that a game such as Hawthorn in Round 22 demands one of our best efforts of the season and if we can provide that, considering we will be backing up from a game in Victoria the previous Friday, whereas the Hawks will be backing up from the Dockers in Perth on Sunday, we should finish stronger than them. Similarly, if we get out to a substantial lead (if there is such a thing for our team these days) against Carlton, I would more than advocate putting the cue in the rack for the last 15-20 minutes (or whatever) of that game to freshen up for Hawthorn.

I just reckon the people on the inner sanctum at the club might look at the remaining games in the same pragmatic fashion. I mean, if we focus on giving maximum effort against North Melbourne and Fremantle, then go at something like 90-95% to just get the win against Carlton (obviously, that 5-10% can only be conserved in the last quarter - if at all. If the game is still in the balance in the last quarter, stiff s**t...you haven't earned a rest), could that amount left in reserve conceivably make us, say, 6-10 points better against Hawthorn (again targetting that as an 'all-out' game)? I think it could and I think it's important to consider. Then we take care of business against Brisbane, again hopefully hopping out to a comfortable early lead and cruising home with a bit left in the tank, with no injuries reported, to give us an excellent chance of being at our best come the first week of September.

 

[candiehappy]

would more than advocate putting the cue in the rack for the last 15-20 minutes (or whatever) of that game

we seem quite adept at doing that during every game ....

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

we seem quite adept at doing that during every game ....

Sure. But if the team has two of those frustrating <2 goal wins, as the opponent comes roaring back, I think one way of looking at it is that maybe if that team hadn't taken the foot off the pedal in the first game, we might not have been able to cling on for the four points in the second. It doesn't have to be pretty, but I just want four out of the next five. And if the agreed best way to achieve that is to strategically target the 1-2 games, where we might be able to be 5-10% off, to give ourselves the best chance of being at 100% for the remaining games, then I'm all for it.

 

[bulletproof]

Good effort MC.

To me, the importance of the North game can't be undersold. It is a really big risk of a game simply because I cannot trust them or us to be 100% on the ball. I think at our respective bests we win but who knows whether that's what each side will bring. But moreover, if we win that I think we can afford to go 1-1 in the Hawthorn and Fremantle games and still make top two, and that is a pretty likely result given we are probably 50:50 going into both those games.

I am certain we won't be taking North lightly, the question, is are we good enough to beat them at Etihad? I think with Motlop, Stokes, Christensen and an improving Varcoe, we can get to them on the outside but can we match them in contested ball?

I am increasingly thinking North's problem is a tactical one. They seem incapable of adapting to a side bringing something unexpected or a plan to counter them. They like playing the top teams because the top teams come in and back their players to be able to beat them and they don't make it about North. North then get it on their terms and they are fine.

We surprised them with Bartel and Kelly last time, but I am worried we will head into this one thinking, we just have to play our best to win. We have to go with the mentality of an underdog and get the game on terms that North don't like.

I think North are favorites to be honest.

 

[candiehappy]

Sure. But if the team has two of those frustrating <2 goal wins, as the opponent comes roaring back, I think one way of looking at it is that maybe if that team hadn't taken the foot off the pedal in the first game, we might not have been able to cling on for the four points in the second. It doesn't have to be pretty, but I just want four out of the next five. And if the agreed best way to achieve that is to strategically target the 1-2 games, where we might be able to be 5-10% off, to give ourselves the best chance of being at 100% for the remaining games, then I'm all for it.

I agree with the theory

but this I would worry that this team cannot regain the momentum at will. Take the foot off and we might get run over.

 

[vinum coupe]

Good thread MC. Definitely timely.

I'm with a couple of others. It's time to buckle up, sit back, and watch what unfolds.

I think there's both an optimistic and pessimistic view.
I can see both.

Optimistic view.
- That we are slightly out of form
- The Rnd 5 Hawthorn game was our true form
- That we are tapering for the finals

Pessimistic view.
- We are currently in form. It's just youthful inconsistency creating flat patches.
- The Rnd 5 Hawthorn game was as good as it gets. Reproducing it is possible, but not consistently.
- We can't afford to taper

Based on the body of evidence we have since that Rnd 5 game I'm starting to side with the pessimistic view.
I'll be happily surprised if we are to win 2 games against North, Freo, and Hawthorn.
I wouldn't be surprised if we lost all 3. Finished 5th. Won the first week, and copped a bit of a hiding in week 2.

Still happy to watch it unfold though!
What is great is that the team is in a position to control it's own destiny.

 

[catempire]

I am certain we won't be taking North lightly, the question, is are we good enough to beat them at Etihad? I think with Motlop, Stokes, Christensen and an improving Varcoe, we can get to them on the outside but can we match them in contested ball?

I am increasingly thinking North's problem is a tactical one. They seem incapable of adapting to a side bringing something unexpected or a plan to counter them. They like playing the top teams because the top teams come in and back their players to be able to beat them and they don't make it about North. North then get it on their terms and they are fine.

We surprised them with Bartel and Kelly last time, but I am worried we will head into this one thinking, we just have to play our best to win. We have to go with the mentality of an underdog and get the game on terms that North don't like.

I think North are favorites to be honest.

I agree North are favourites at Etihad. They've done us over there twice (?) recently. We have shown all year that when we win contested possession we generally win the quarter. It's essential we start that way against North and, once on top, do not let up. I think they are mentally fragile and when things don't go their way early they go into their shells. We need to take advantage of that.