List Mgmt. The next generation of talent (2023-2030 onwards)

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Shadow89

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10k Posts AFL Fantasy Div 6+ Winner 2021
Feb 20, 2018
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Hey guys,

Thought while the little one was sleeping and I had some spare time, I'd start a thread based on our next wave of talent as I couldn't really see a dedicated thread that would be pertinent - and it definitely seems to be something that we're all discussing a lot more this pre-season (mods let me know if this is ok).

As criteria, I've basically put in anyone currently 26 or under - so by the 2030 cut off used as part of the criteria, they'll be 33 and most likely still playing.

I thought it might be handy to see what we've invested draft wise, to see the change in our strategy - especially post 2020. A lot of 1st and 2nd rounders, and a lot of guys taken late who we have high hopes for. I've grouped them into categories of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Rookie, Cat B, SSP and MSD. I've also then grouped them into our 1sts team, emergencies, and depth, using the criteria of who looks like they will succeed, who looks like they might succeed - using various traits and attributes that would aid them - (all my own opinion of course).

I also thought this might be handy for us to identify 'gaps' and where we might need to target, in order to build the strongest 22 to push for a flag in coming years. Will update each period we have new player acquisitions, to see the change in our list makeup each year.

Without further ado, here's the breakdown of our current list 26 and under:

Round 1

Pick 8 - Jhye Clark (19)
Pick 10 - Jack Bowes (25)
Pick 11 - Connor O'Sullivan (18)
Pick 12 - Tanner Bruhn (21)
Pick 17 - Ollie Henry (21)
Pick 19 - Sam De Koning (22)
Pick 20 - Max Holmes (21)

Round 2

Pick 24 - Toby Conway (20)
Pick 25 - Mitch Knevitt (20)
Pick 26 - Brandan Parfitt (25)
Pick 32 - James Willis (20)
Pick 33 - Shannon Neale (21)
Pick 33 - Mitch Edwards (18)
Pick 36 - Shaun Mannagh (26)

Round 3

Pick 52 - Phoenix Foster (19)

Round 4

Pick 57 - Gryan Miers (24)
Pick 58 - George Stevens (18)
Pick 61 - Oliver Wiltshire (21)
Pick 63 - Lawson Humphries (20)

Rookie Picks

Rookie Pick 7 - Emerson Jeka (22)
Rookie Pick 14 - Brad Close (25)
Rookie Pick 15 - Ollie Dempsey (20)
Rookie Pick 16 - Jack Henry (25)
Rookie Pick 31 - Oscar Murdoch (19)
Rookie Pick 33 - Zach Guthrie (25)

Cat B Rookies

Mark O'Connor (26)
Oisin Mullin (23)
Joe Furphy (24)
Ted Clohesy (19)

SSP

Tyson Stengle (25)

MSD

Mitch Hardie (26)

*****************

Total amount of players: 31
Average age of players: 21.87
Median age: 21
Most common ages: 25 - 6 players (1st), 20 and 21 - 5 players (2nd)
Least common ages: 23 - 1 player (1st), 22 and 24 - 2 players (2nd)
Most common round picked: 1st round and 2nd round - 7 players (1st), Rookie picks - 6 players (2nd)
Least common round picked: 3rd round, SSP and MSD - 1 player (1st), Cat B Rookie - 4 players (2nd)

*******************

Possible team based on today's output/AFL ready players/desirable attributes -

B: O'Connor, SDK, J. Henry
HB: Z. Guthrie, C. O'Sullivan, Mullin
C: Holmes, Bruhn, Mannagh
FO: Conway, J. Clark, G. Stevens
HF: Close, O. Henry, Miers
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Dempsey
INT: Bowes, Knevitt, Parfitt, Jeka
Sub: Willis

EMG: Clohesy, M. Edwards, L. Humphries, Wiltshire

Still speculative/may not stay on the list based on VFL form - Hardie, Foster, O. Murdoch, Furphy

**********************

Key Defenders - SDK, J. Henry, O'Sullivan, Jeka
Medium Defenders - Zuthrie, O'Connor, Murdoch
Small Defenders - Mullin, Humphries

Rucks - Conway, Furphy, M. Edwards
Inside Mids - Clark, Bruhn, Parfitt, G. Stevens, Hardie, Clohesy
Outside Mids - Holmes, Mannagh

Key Forwards - S. Neale, Foster
Medium Forwards - O. Henry, Dempsey, Wiltshire
Small Forwards - Stengle, Miers, Close

Utilities - Bowes, Knevitt, Willis

************************

On the basis of all of the above, looks like we're lacking in the following areas:

  • Players aged 22-24
  • Outside mids
  • Small defenders
  • Key forwards

*************************

Feel free to tell me anything I should add/subtract/change. Definitely interested to see -

a) how people think we can improve upon this list
b) what players you think would be best to target
c) how many of these players you think will make it
d) what the best way forward is giving all our impending retirements
e) when post 2024 we will look likely to contend seriously again

Cheers guys, and happy reading!
 
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Concerns around the midfield and KPF positions. Lots of waiting to see if potential gets lived up to or not, which is fair enough based on where most of these guys were drafted and their age.

That said... looks like we have a plan to refresh the team. A second KPD in this year's draft, another ruck, hopefully immediate backup for the mids, and some potential long-term prospects. Guessing we'll be targeting KPF and mid next season.
 
Projecting into the future based on the current list condition is alway difficult due to the skewness, competition wide at any expereince level, the median games from that point in a career doesn't top 60 games.

You can cut our list of youngester in half in three years, and then half again by 2030.

Overall I think we have a quality issue, we have the depth coming through.
Our team's old age reflects a high level of long term stability, which once it gives way could generate a lot of opportunity for those you've listed, if they're good enough we thrive, if not then we'll spend a bit of time with WCE.
 

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Hey guys,

Thought while the little one was sleeping and I had some spare time, I'd start a thread based on our next wave of talent as I couldn't really see a dedicated thread that would be pertinent - and it definitely seems to be something that we're all discussing a lot more this pre-season (mods let me know if this is ok).

As criteria, I've basically put in anyone currently 26 or under - so by the 2030 cut off used as part of the criteria, they'll be 33 and most likely still playing.

I thought it might be handy to see what we've invested draft wise, to see the change in our strategy - especially post 2020. A lot of 1st and 2nd rounders, and a lot of guys taken late who we have high hopes for. I've grouped them into categories of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Rookie, Cat B, SSP and MSD. I've also then grouped them into our 1sts team, emergencies, and depth, using the criteria of who looks like they will succeed, who looks like they might succeed - using various traits and attributes that would aid them - (all my own opinion of course).

I also thought this might be handy for us to identify 'gaps' and where we might need to target, in order to build the strongest 22 to push for a flag in coming years. Will update each period we have new player acquisitions, to see the change in our list makeup each year.

Without further ado, here's the breakdown of our current list 26 and under:

Round 1

Pick 8 - Jhye Clark (19)
Pick 10 - Jack Bowes (25)
Pick 11 - Connor O'Sullivan (18)
Pick 12 - Tanner Bruhn (21)
Pick 17 - Ollie Henry (21)
Pick 19 - Sam De Koning (22)
Pick 20 - Max Holmes (21)


Round 2

Pick 24 - Toby Conway (20)
Pick 25 - Mitch Knevitt (20)
Pick 26 - Brandan Parfitt (25)
Pick 32 - James Willis (20)
Pick 33 - Shannon Neale (21)
Pick 33 - Mitch Edwards (18)
Pick 36 - Shaun Mannagh (26)

Round 3

Pick 52 - Phoenix Foster (19)

Round 4

Pick 57 - Gryan Miers (24)
Pick 58 - George Stevens (18)
Pick 61 - Oliver Wiltshire (21)
Pick 63 - Lawson Humphries (20)

Rookie Picks

Rookie Pick 7 - Emerson Jeka (22)
Rookie Pick 14 - Brad Close (25)
Rookie Pick 15 - Ollie Dempsey (20)
Rookie Pick 16 - Jack Henry (25)
Rookie Pick 31 - Oscar Murdoch (19)
Rookie Pick 33 - Zach Guthrie (25)

Cat B Rookies

Mark O'Connor (26)
Oisin Mullin (23)
Joe Furphy (24)
Ted Clohesy (19)

SSP

Tyson Stengle (25)

MSD

Mitch Hardie (26)

*****************

Total amount of players: 31
Average age of players: 21.87
Median age: 21
Most common ages: 25 - 6 players (1st), 20 and 21 - 5 players (2nd)
Least common ages: 23 - 1 player (1st), 22 and 24 - 2 players (2nd)
Most common round picked: 1st round and 2nd round - 7 players (1st), Rookie picks - 6 players (2nd)
Least common round picked: 3rd round, SSP and MSD - 1 player (1st), Cat B Rookie - 4 players (2nd)

*******************

Possible team based on today's output/AFL ready players/desirable attributes -

B: O'Connor, SDK, J. Henry
HB: Z. Guthrie, C. O'Sullivan, Mullin
C: Holmes, Bruhn, Mannagh
FO: Conway, J. Clark, G. Stevens
HF: Close, O. Henry, Miers
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Dempsey
INT: Bowes, Knevitt, Parfitt, Jeka
Sub: Willis

EMG: Clohesy, M. Edwards, L. Humphries, Wiltshire

Still speculative/may not stay on the list based on VFL form - Hardie, Foster, O. Murdoch, Furphy

**********************

Key Defenders - SDK, J. Henry, O'Sullivan, Jeka
Medium Defenders - Zuthrie, O'Connor, Murdoch
Small Defenders - Mullin, Humphries

Rucks - Conway, Furphy, M. Edwards
Inside Mids - Clark, Bruhn, Parfitt, G. Stevens, Hardie, Clohesy
Outside Mids - Holmes, Mannagh

Key Forwards - S. Neale, Foster
Medium Forwards - O. Henry, Dempsey, Wiltshire
Small Forwards - Stengle, Miers, Close

Utilities - Bowes, Knevitt, Willis

************************

On the basis of all of the above, looks like we're lacking in the following areas:

  • Players aged 22-24
  • Outside mids
  • Small defenders
  • Key forwards

*************************

Feel free to tell me anything I should add/subtract/change. Definitely interested to see -

a) how people think we can improve upon this list
b) what players you think would be best to target
c) how many of these players you think will make it
d) what the best way forward is giving all our impending retirements
e) when post 2024 we will look likely to contend seriously again

Cheers guys, and happy reading!
Any idea of a nominal target we should have ..based on the last ten flags for example.

How many single figure top10 picks. How many R1's ( on the list and in the side ... as there will always be the bad luck stories)
 
Any idea of a nominal target we should have ..based on the last ten flags for example.

How many single figure top10 picks. How many R1's ( on the list and in the side ... as there will always be the bad luck stories)

Sounds like a 5 year plan. We aim to double to production 1st rounders and triple the production of second rounders.
 
Hey guys,

Thought while the little one was sleeping and I had some spare time, I'd start a thread based on our next wave of talent as I couldn't really see a dedicated thread that would be pertinent - and it definitely seems to be something that we're all discussing a lot more this pre-season (mods let me know if this is ok).

As criteria, I've basically put in anyone currently 26 or under - so by the 2030 cut off used as part of the criteria, they'll be 33 and most likely still playing.

I thought it might be handy to see what we've invested draft wise, to see the change in our strategy - especially post 2020. A lot of 1st and 2nd rounders, and a lot of guys taken late who we have high hopes for. I've grouped them into categories of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Rookie, Cat B, SSP and MSD. I've also then grouped them into our 1sts team, emergencies, and depth, using the criteria of who looks like they will succeed, who looks like they might succeed - using various traits and attributes that would aid them - (all my own opinion of course).

I also thought this might be handy for us to identify 'gaps' and where we might need to target, in order to build the strongest 22 to push for a flag in coming years. Will update each period we have new player acquisitions, to see the change in our list makeup each year.

Without further ado, here's the breakdown of our current list 26 and under:

Round 1

Pick 8 - Jhye Clark (19)
Pick 10 - Jack Bowes (25)
Pick 11 - Connor O'Sullivan (18)
Pick 12 - Tanner Bruhn (21)
Pick 17 - Ollie Henry (21)
Pick 19 - Sam De Koning (22)
Pick 20 - Max Holmes (21)

Round 2

Pick 24 - Toby Conway (20)
Pick 25 - Mitch Knevitt (20)
Pick 26 - Brandan Parfitt (25)
Pick 32 - James Willis (20)
Pick 33 - Shannon Neale (21)
Pick 33 - Mitch Edwards (18)
Pick 36 - Shaun Mannagh (26)

Round 3

Pick 52 - Phoenix Foster (19)

Round 4

Pick 57 - Gryan Miers (24)
Pick 58 - George Stevens (18)
Pick 61 - Oliver Wiltshire (21)
Pick 63 - Lawson Humphries (20)

Rookie Picks

Rookie Pick 7 - Emerson Jeka (22)
Rookie Pick 14 - Brad Close (25)
Rookie Pick 15 - Ollie Dempsey (20)
Rookie Pick 16 - Jack Henry (25)
Rookie Pick 31 - Oscar Murdoch (19)
Rookie Pick 33 - Zach Guthrie (25)

Cat B Rookies

Mark O'Connor (26)
Oisin Mullin (23)
Joe Furphy (24)
Ted Clohesy (19)

SSP

Tyson Stengle (25)

MSD

Mitch Hardie (26)

*****************

Total amount of players: 31
Average age of players: 21.87
Median age: 21
Most common ages: 25 - 6 players (1st), 20 and 21 - 5 players (2nd)
Least common ages: 23 - 1 player (1st), 22 and 24 - 2 players (2nd)
Most common round picked: 1st round and 2nd round - 7 players (1st), Rookie picks - 6 players (2nd)
Least common round picked: 3rd round, SSP and MSD - 1 player (1st), Cat B Rookie - 4 players (2nd)

*******************

Possible team based on today's output/AFL ready players/desirable attributes -

B: O'Connor, SDK, J. Henry
HB: Z. Guthrie, C. O'Sullivan, Mullin
C: Holmes, Bruhn, Mannagh
FO: Conway, J. Clark, G. Stevens
HF: Close, O. Henry, Miers
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Dempsey
INT: Bowes, Knevitt, Parfitt, Jeka
Sub: Willis

EMG: Clohesy, M. Edwards, L. Humphries, Wiltshire

Still speculative/may not stay on the list based on VFL form - Hardie, Foster, O. Murdoch, Furphy

**********************

Key Defenders - SDK, J. Henry, O'Sullivan, Jeka
Medium Defenders - Zuthrie, O'Connor, Murdoch
Small Defenders - Mullin, Humphries

Rucks - Conway, Furphy, M. Edwards
Inside Mids - Clark, Bruhn, Parfitt, G. Stevens, Hardie, Clohesy
Outside Mids - Holmes, Mannagh

Key Forwards - S. Neale, Foster
Medium Forwards - O. Henry, Dempsey, Wiltshire
Small Forwards - Stengle, Miers, Close

Utilities - Bowes, Knevitt, Willis

************************

On the basis of all of the above, looks like we're lacking in the following areas:

  • Players aged 22-24
  • Outside mids
  • Small defenders
  • Key forwards

*************************

Feel free to tell me anything I should add/subtract/change. Definitely interested to see -

a) how people think we can improve upon this list
b) what players you think would be best to target
c) how many of these players you think will make it
d) what the best way forward is giving all our impending retirements
e) when post 2024 we will look likely to contend seriously again

Cheers guys, and happy reading!
Nice job putting this together.

It might be difficult, but if possible it would be ideal to spread the incoming retirements over a few years.

2024: Rohan, Stanley, Tuohy

Tuohy is self explanatory and we shouldn't rely on him too much even in 2024. We need to hope Conway has come on or get a journeyman ruck to help. Between O.Henry and Dempsey I think they could cover what Rohan gives us.

2025: Duncan, Hawkins, Dangerfield

Can three champions of our club get one last season out of themselves? Nobody wants players to go too long but that's a lot of leadership and cultural value to lose at the end of 2024 (along with the others). Maybe only one or two stay on for 2025. Losing all 3 to conclude 2024 would be brutal but is on the cards. Regardless of what some here say, their 2023 form warranted another season and until that changes you don't rule them out.

2026: C.Guthrie, Blicavs

Guthrie hasn't played crash and bash midfield his entire career and Blicavs started late. Can they get to Selwood retirement age, maybe shuffling to defence in their last season?

2027: Cameron, Stewart

Can these two also play till 34? Stewart has had a late starting AFL career; Cameron is an athletic freak. Can late stage Jezza hold down full forward given he doesn't play the contested gorilla role of Hawkins?

This would continue the trend of replacing 2-3 best 22 each season and having 1 or 2 veterans around who may not be first choice but could still be relied on.

That would be 8 or 9 new guys in the best 22 by 2028 while our current mid agers become the next batch of veterans.

I anticipate a few will say we should retire 6 at the end of 2024 and the last few veterans a year later. Unless injuries or form dictate this (and it probably will in a few cases) I don't think we should be as black and white as that.
 
Just about impossible to predict with any accuracy as so many of the players who will be on the list by 2030 will be vastly unknown to us now and players we think will be around will be delisted traded or won’t make it.

More or less throwing darts blind folded playing this game
 
Our developing Key Forwards are beyond horrid. We have a few high talent developing midfielders but are missing an explosive type. Backline looks good
 
Our developing Key Forwards are beyond horrid. We have a few high talent developing midfielders but are missing an explosive type. Backline looks good
Both of which are generally gone in the first 5 picks of the draft and if you are lucky a midfielder might slip as far as 10th fitting that explosive strong criteria
 
Our developing Key Forwards are beyond horrid. We have a few high talent developing midfielders but are missing an explosive type. Backline looks good

Pies key forwards aren’t exactly absolute top shelf either but they got the job done. Agree though that we will need to add a real quality young key forward - maybe Edwards could be it?

For me, our biggest need is some A grade young mids. Clark and Holmes could be but jury is still well and truly out. End of next season we either have to target Bailey Smith as a ready made A grader or take one of the quality young mids in that draft.
 
Just about impossible to predict with any accuracy as so many of the players who will be on the list by 2030 will be vastly unknown to us now and players we think will be around will be delisted traded or won’t make it.

More or less throwing darts blind folded playing this game

Lol I'm not playing a game. I've just listed what our current list is that fits the criteria (I have to give some cut off point) - which as I said in the description, will be updated each year accordingly based on list changes.

There's already been a fair bit of discussion on the draft and trade threads and the pre-season threads with no dedicated space for it, so thought I'd compile the data and identify currently weaknesses and strengths and how best to combat these over the coming years.

Something to discuss in the off-season. Already been a fair bit of input already as well. If you think it's pointless, that's fine and more than welcome to your opinion. Also don't need to read it if it's not your thing either.
 
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Pies key forwards aren’t exactly absolute top shelf either but they got the job done. Agree though that we will need to add a real quality young key forward - maybe Edwards could be it?

For me, our biggest need is some A grade young mids. Clark and Holmes could be but jury is still well and truly out. End of next season we either have to target Bailey Smith as a ready made A grader or take one of the quality young mids in that draft.

Im not convinced any of our current talls are natural KPF's and will develop into a #1 target but they maybe able to do a job if our mediums and smalls are good enough. Henry is talented and will be a mainstay. We have several years of Cameron yet and a few smalls that can kick multiple goals. Edwards and Conways in the same side..one would think that the resting ruck would have to spend time forward.
 
Pies key forwards aren’t exactly absolute top shelf either but they got the job done. Agree though that we will need to add a real quality young key forward - maybe Edwards could be it?

For me, our biggest need is some A grade young mids. Clark and Holmes could be but jury is still well and truly out. End of next season we either have to target Bailey Smith as a ready made A grader or take one of the quality young mids in that draft.

I think the idea this year (from what I could tell), was to draft someone like O'Sullivan who can help us out at both ends. His answer when asked about who he strives to emulate, was surprisingly Jez Cameron - which means he's a genuine swingman who has the attributes to play either end. Reminds me of Naughton and Petty in that regard.

I also think this is why we drafted someone like Jeka, who is low risk/high reward if he can pull his finger out. If he works out, he's only 22 and we then have COS forward who we hopefully partner with Neale or Mitch Edwards.

I also think that this is where the real value with Jez lies, as he still has a lot of footy left and he's only 30 right now. He could possibly play until 34 or 35 if his body holds up - allowing us to develop our young talls and then grab one on the open market if they don't work out.

The mids is where we're crying out for a star I agree - but hopefully Holmes, Bruhn or Clark can be that player while Guth supports the young cast for a few years.


Our developing Key Forwards are beyond horrid. We have a few high talent developing midfielders but are missing an explosive type. Backline looks good

Agreed on this. Foster and Neale would be close to the worst in the league. If Neale could come good, then it would go a long way to making things look better - especially if Dempsey and Ollie Henry keep improving too.

Bailey Smith would be definitely perfect for us as he's a missing link. Agreed that backline is very solid and our best of the ground, followed by small forwards.

Nice job putting this together.

It might be difficult, but if possible it would be ideal to spread the incoming retirements over a few years.

2024: Rohan, Stanley, Tuohy

Tuohy is self explanatory and we shouldn't rely on him too much even in 2024. We need to hope Conway has come on or get a journeyman ruck to help. Between O.Henry and Dempsey I think they could cover what Rohan gives us.

2025: Duncan, Hawkins, Dangerfield

Can three champions of our club get one last season out of themselves? Nobody wants players to go too long but that's a lot of leadership and cultural value to lose at the end of 2024 (along with the others). Maybe only one or two stay on for 2025. Losing all 3 to conclude 2024 would be brutal but is on the cards. Regardless of what some here say, their 2023 form warranted another season and until that changes you don't rule them out.

2026: C.Guthrie, Blicavs

Guthrie hasn't played crash and bash midfield his entire career and Blicavs started late. Can they get to Selwood retirement age, maybe shuffling to defence in their last season?

2027: Cameron, Stewart

Can these two also play till 34? Stewart has had a late starting AFL career; Cameron is an athletic freak. Can late stage Jezza hold down full forward given he doesn't play the contested gorilla role of Hawkins?

This would continue the trend of replacing 2-3 best 22 each season and having 1 or 2 veterans around who may not be first choice but could still be relied on.

That would be 8 or 9 new guys in the best 22 by 2028 while our current mid agers become the next batch of veterans.

I anticipate a few will say we should retire 6 at the end of 2024 and the last few veterans a year later. Unless injuries or form dictate this (and it probably will in a few cases) I don't think we should be as black and white as that

Cheers mate :)

My read is that all of Hawkins, Rohan, Stanley and Tuohy are done after next year, and Duncan is up in the air depending on how his body goes.

I think Danger will go around for at least 1 more and Guth will be either 2026 or 2027 dependent on injury.

Blics I think is the one that will really surprise and could honestly play until 2028 if he wanted. Has such a good fitness base, is a massive body, but also isn't bash and crash either. Also started late, so not as many years in the legs.

Stewart and Jez I think would be 2027 or 2028 if they hold up - so I think we've still got a while yet to transition everyone.

Atkins and Kolo are both still 28 as well, so there's another 5 years there too. Expect Kolo to be overtaken very quickly by COS, but Atkins is a mainstay and another mature age player who could play into his mid 30's as well.

It also changes our prospective side massively, if all of Guthrie, Blics, Stewart and Jez hold up. Very possible our 2026 or even 2027 side ends up with:

OUT: Jeka, Willis, S. Neale, Parfitt, G. Stevens
IN: T. Stewart, J. Cameron, C. Guthrie, Blics, T. Atkins

Gives us in 4 years time -

B: O'Connor, SDK, J. Henry
HB: T. Stewart, C. O'Sullivan, Z. Guthrie
C: Holmes, T. Atkins, Mannagh
FO: Conway, C. Guthrie, Bruhn
HF: Close, O. Henry, Miers
F: Stengle, J. Cameron, Dempsey
INT: Blics, Bowes, J. Clark, Knevitt
Sub: Mullin

EMG: S. Neale, Willis, Parfitt, G. Stevens

Looks a lot more healthy, and makes the transition a lot easier if/when it happens. Of course there's a lot to play out, but the club would know this and would be planning each trade/draft period accordingly.

Think this'll be a big one this year and a changing of the guard + strongly chasing some desirable targets. Need to keep performing well to make that happen though - hence the mature agers and the drafting of close to ready made talent.


Any idea of a nominal target we should have ..based on the last ten flags for example.

How many single figure top10 picks. How many R1's ( on the list and in the side ... as there will always be the bad luck stories)

I think someone like Bailey Smith is an important type to go after. If we can't land him, I wouldn't be averse to chasing a Tom Powell or Will Phillips from North who are high talents but are being kept out. Perkins is another who is explosive and has high upside, that we might be able to pry out. Would kill for someone like Zac Bailey or George Wardlaw.

Also think talls wise that someone like Cadman or JUH would be on the wish list, but they might not even be on the market/there'll be fierce competition if they are.

I also wouldn't mind looking at someone like Thilthorpe, given the Crows are chasing Petty hard and they already have Fogarty down there. Could be pried out if the opportunity isn't there. Likewise someone younger like Busslinger who Sel has that connection with, given the Dogs' surplus of talls on the list now.

Concerns around the midfield and KPF positions. Lots of waiting to see if potential gets lived up to or not, which is fair enough based on where most of these guys were drafted and their age.

That said... looks like we have a plan to refresh the team. A second KPD in this year's draft, another ruck, hopefully immediate backup for the mids, and some potential long-term prospects. Guessing we'll be targeting KPF and mid next season.

I like that we went really different this year, and just went plug and play rather than development. Guys like Stevens, Mannagh, Jeka, Wiltshire and Humphries, are all mature age or big bodied - so the development time is massively cut down. Lets us know pretty quickly if there's something there or not, and if we need to chase other targets via the FA/Trade market.

Agreed that KPF and mids look to be the biggest holes and who we'll likely look at moving forward.

Projecting into the future based on the current list condition is alway difficult due to the skewness, competition wide at any expereince level, the median games from that point in a career doesn't top 60 games.

You can cut our list of youngester in half in three years, and then half again by 2030.

Overall I think we have a quality issue, we have the depth coming through.
Our team's old age reflects a high level of long term stability, which once it gives way could generate a lot of opportunity for those you've listed, if they're good enough we thrive, if not then we'll spend a bit of time with WCE.

Yeah agreed, but what's interesting about your point, is that in some drafts we've defied these odds by going speculative and via different avenues - evidenced no more than by the 2016 draft. All of Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea, Narkle, J. Henry, Z. Guthrie, O'Connor and J. Jones, are still on AFL lists and have forged some sort of career. Only Timm House and Ryan Abbott didn't work out - and even Abbott managed 6 games at 2 clubs before being delisted.

I think this is why (as I was saying above), that we went more readymade in this draft, as opposed to long term development that may not work anyway. If we had another draft like 2016, you could see a world where all of COS, Mannagh, Stevens and Humphries work out - and then say Wiltshire and Jeka don't.

I think Foster is probably long odds to make it, as are Murdoch, Clohesy and Hardie given their attributes, but they were all taken really late so it's not as much of a loss. Obviously a lot still left to play out though, but Clohesy is one I'm still thinking might surprise given his tenaciousness and hardworking attitude.

Definitely agreed that there's about to be a lot of opportunity, but reckon we're in a far better position than WC given we addressed things earlier than they did and have some solid players to build around for the future. Again, a lot to play out. One thing is for sure though, we never rest on our laurels, so we'll always try to compete no matter what - it's just in the club's DNA.
 

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Im not convinced any of our current talls are natural KPF's and will develop into a #1 target but they maybe able to do a job if our mediums and smalls are good enough. Henry is talented and will be a mainstay. We have several years of Cameron yet and a few smalls that can kick multiple goals. Edwards and Conways in the same side..one would think that the resting ruck would have to spend time forward.

The kid Faull may be looked at next year but I think after prioritizing talls this draft I think we will look at loading up on the best mids possible.
 
I think the idea this year (from what I could tell), was to draft someone like O'Sullivan who can help us out at both ends. His answer when asked about who he strives to emulate, was surprisingly Jez Cameron - which means he's a genuine swingman who has the attributes to play either end. Reminds me of Naughton and Petty in that regard.

I also think this is why we drafted someone like Jeka, who is low risk/high reward if he can pull his finger out. If he works out, he's only 22 and we then have COS forward who we hopefully partner with Neale or Mitch Edwards.

I also think that this is where the real value with Jez lies, as he still has a lot of footy left and he's only 30 right now. He could possibly play until 34 or 35 if his body holds up - allowing us to develop our young talls and then grab one on the open market if they don't work out.

The mids is where we're crying out for a star I agree - but hopefully Holmes, Bruhn or Clark can be that player while Guth supports the young cast for a few years.




Agreed on this. Foster and Neale would be close to the worst in the league. If Neale could come good, then it would go a long way to making things look better - especially if Dempsey and Ollie Henry keep improving too.

Bailey Smith would be definitely perfect for us as he's a missing link. Agreed that backline is very solid and our best of the ground, followed by small forwards.



Cheers mate :)

My read is that all of Hawkins, Rohan, Stanley and Tuohy are done after next year, and Duncan is up in the air depending on how his body goes.

I think Danger will go around for at least 1 more and Guth will be either 2026 or 2027 dependent on injury.

Blics I think is the one that will really surprise and could honestly play until 2028 if he wanted. Has such a good fitness base, is a massive body, but also isn't bash and crash either. Also started late, so not as many years in the legs.

Stewart and Jez I think would be 2027 or 2028 if they hold up - so I think we've still got a while yet to transition everyone.

Atkins and Kolo are both still 28 as well, so there's another 5 years there too. Expect Kolo to be overtaken very quickly by COS, but Atkins is a mainstay and another mature age player who could play into his mid 30's as well.

It also changes our prospective side massively, if all of Guthrie, Blics, Stewart and Jez hold up. Very possible our 2026 or even 2027 side ends up with:

OUT: Jeka, Willis, S. Neale, Parfitt, G. Stevens
IN: T. Stewart, J. Cameron, C. Guthrie, Blics, T. Atkins

Gives us in 4 years time -

B: O'Connor, SDK, J. Henry
HB: T. Stewart, C. O'Sullivan, Z. Guthrie
C: Holmes, T. Atkins, Mannagh
FO: Conway, C. Guthrie, Bruhn
HF: Close, O. Henry, Miers
F: Stengle, J. Cameron, Dempsey
INT: Blics, Bowes, J. Clark, Knevitt
Sub: Mullin

EMG: S. Neale, Willis, Parfitt, G. Stevens

Looks a lot more healthy, and makes the transition a lot easier if/when it happens. Of course there's a lot to play out, but the club would know this and would be planning each trade/draft period accordingly.

Think this'll be a big one this year and a changing of the guard + strongly chasing some desirable targets. Need to keep performing well to make that happen though - hence the mature agers and the drafting of close to ready made talent.




I think someone like Bailey Smith is an important type to go after. If we can't land him, I wouldn't be averse to chasing a Tom Powell or Will Phillips from North who are high talents but are being kept out. Perkins is another who is explosive and has high upside, that we might be able to pry out. Would kill for someone like Zac Bailey or George Wardlaw.

Also think talls wise that someone like Cadman or JUH would be on the wish list, but they might not even be on the market/there'll be fierce competition if they are.

I also wouldn't mind looking at someone like Thilthorpe, given the Crows are chasing Petty hard and they already have Fogarty down there. Could be pried out if the opportunity isn't there. Likewise someone younger like Busslinger who Sel has that connection with, given the Dogs' surplus of talls on the list now.



I like that we went really different this year, and just went plug and play rather than development. Guys like Stevens, Mannagh, Jeka, Wiltshire and Humphries, are all mature age or big bodied - so the development time is massively cut down. Lets us know pretty quickly if there's something there or not, and if we need to chase other targets via the FA/Trade market.

Agreed that KPF and mids look to be the biggest holes and who we'll likely look at moving forward.



Yeah agreed, but what's interesting about your point, is that in some drafts we've defied these odds by going speculative and via different avenues - evidenced no more than by the 2016 draft. All of Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea, Narkle, J. Henry, Z. Guthrie, O'Connor and J. Jones, are still on AFL lists and have forged some sort of career. Only Timm House and Ryan Abbott didn't work out - and even Abbott managed 6 games at 2 clubs before being delisted.

I think this is why (as I was saying above), that we went more readymade in this draft, as opposed to long term development that may not work anyway. If we had another draft like 2016, you could see a world where all of COS, Mannagh, Stevens and Humphries work out - and then say Wiltshire and Jeka don't.

I think Foster is probably long odds to make it, as are Murdoch, Clohesy and Hardie given their attributes, but they were all taken really late so it's not as much of a loss. Obviously a lot still left to play out though, but Clohesy is one I'm still thinking might surprise given his tenaciousness and hardworking attitude.

Definitely agreed that there's about to be a lot of opportunity, but reckon we're in a far better position than WC given we addressed things earlier than they did and have some solid players to build around for the future. Again, a lot to play out. One thing is for sure though, we never rest on our laurels, so we'll always try to compete no matter what - it's just in the club's DNA.

Depending on our draft position next year, I can see us looking very closely at someone like Jagga Smith who is a terrific accumulator and excellent on the outside. Would compliment our current crop of young mids well.
 
Depending on our draft position next year, I can see us looking very closely at someone like Jagga Smith who is a terrific accumulator and excellent on the outside. Would compliment our current crop of young mids well.

Agreed. My money is on Sam Lalor, from what I've seen/read so far. Dustin Martin attributes and already a big body - so would slot right in, in 2025.
 
Agreed. My money is on Sam Lalor, from what I've seen/read so far. Dustin Martin attributes and already a big body - so would slot right in, in 2025.

Reckon Smith will be ready to play straight away too for what it’s worth. Don’t mind Lalor, but think we need to be looking at class users of the footy. I’m on Smith’s early wagon 😉.
 
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What's the knock on Neale? Before he signed a contract extension a lot here were worried about the prospect of him heading back to wa. 12 months ago a lot of people on here were optimistic what he could produce while Hawk was out for the first month. All of a sudden he does his ankle is one of the worst KP talents in the league?

Personally I am still optimistic of him having a solid career. Is he going to kick 60+ goals every season probably not. But I think it is feasible he can become a Lobb/Mihocek/Finlayson ect type who gets you 30-45 goals a season. He is tall, athletic and a really good set shot. There is a lot to work with. Plus you can't fault his VFL form. He has managed to kick bags of 4 or 5 consistently with some of the worst midfields ive seen with all our injuries.

I understand some of us are disappointed with his AFL games but like at the same time very rarely does a KP player look at all comfortable early in their career. Even JUH a few years ago and Cadman this year struggled to find their feet.

Next year I think it is well possible he contends for the VFL leading goal kicker considering our VFL team looks pretty stacked next year. If he did that it would be hard to argue that he deserves to fill Hawks place once he retires.

He did a Pod with bodymajic a few weeks ago. I highly recomend you give it a watch on youtube. Neale seriously has a good head on his shoulders for his age.

Have a feeling we might try the same thing with Edwards and try to develop him into a KPF. Like Neale he has all the traits to become a top line forward. Little know he had an 80% set shot accuracy this year.

GO Cats!
 
What's the knock on Neale? Before he signed a contract extension a lot here were worried about the prospect of him heading back to wa. 12 months ago a lot of people on here were optimistic what he could produce while Hawk was out for the first month. All of a sudden he does his ankle is one of the worst KP talents in the league?

Personally I am still optimistic of him having a solid career. Is he going to kick 60+ goals every season probably not. But I think it is feasible he can become a Lobb/Mihocek/Finlayson ect type who gets you 30-45 goals a season. He is tall, athletic and a really good set shot. There is a lot to work with. Plus you can't fault his VFL form. He has managed to kick bags of 4 or 5 consistently with some of the worst midfields ive seen with all our injuries.

I understand some of us are disappointed with his AFL games but like at the same time very rarely does a KP player look at all comfortable early in their career. Even JUH a few years ago and Cadman this year struggled to find their feet.

Next year I think it is well possible he contends for the VFL leading goal kicker considering our VFL team looks pretty stacked next year. If he did that it would be hard to argue that he deserves to fill Hawks place once he retires.

He did a Pod with bodymajic a few weeks ago. I highly recomend you give it a watch on youtube. Neale seriously has a good head on his shoulders for his age.

Have a feeling we might try the same thing with Edwards and try to develop him into a KPF. Like Neale he has all the traits to become a top line forward. Little know he had an 80% set shot accuracy this year.

GO Cats!
I haven't watched stacks and stacks of VFL but I think Neale's a solid prospect and agree with the points you raise. We just don't quite have the spot in the team for him right now but developing his body and craft will hold him in good stead. Let's say Jezza, Rohan and Hawkins miss a few games each (ideally not at the same time). There's 12 games for Neale in 2024 where he will have plenty of experience around him. Then if one of them goes down for a while a more permanent role could pop up.

12 games, 10 goals and creating a serious contest are solid aims for Neale next year.
 
I haven't watched stacks and stacks of VFL but I think Neale's a solid prospect and agree with the points you raise. We just don't quite have the spot in the team for him right now but developing his body and craft will hold him in good stead. Let's say Jezza, Rohan and Hawkins miss a few games each (ideally not at the same time). There's 12 games for Neale in 2024 where he will have plenty of experience around him. Then if one of them goes down for a while a more permanent role could pop up.

12 games, 10 goals and creating a serious contest are solid aims for Neale next year.
I also think he’s a very good prospect.
Listening to the Bodymajik pod makes you realise how many injuries he’s had and the wretched timing of them all.

He’s played some very solid VFL and has the athletic profile we love at the Cats.
I see him as the Hawk replacement long term.
Interestingly IIRC in the game he played v Pies late last season I think he gave off a gimme and missed 2 set shots he would have kicked with his eyes closed in the VFL.
We’d had a long lunch but the consensus after was he had played well and had an almost game - if he kicks 2or 3 he’d be getting heaps of praise.
 
I also think he’s a very good prospect.
Listening to the Bodymajik pod makes you realise how many injuries he’s had and the wretched timing of them all.

He’s played some very solid VFL and has the athletic profile we love at the Cats.
I see him as the Hawk replacement long term.
Interestingly IIRC in the game he played v Pies late last season I think he gave off a gimme and missed 2 set shots he would have kicked with his eyes closed in the VFL.
We’d had a long lunch but the consensus after was he had played well and had an almost game - if he kicks 2or 3 he’d be batting heaps of praise.
Spot on and Hawkins/Cameron are an amazing set of teachers/role models for Neale. He'd be watching them like a hawk at training and on match days and no doubt getting plenty of constructive feedback.

The Collingwood and Bulldogs games I saw plenty to like but agree that the lack of confidence (which will come) was evident. The St Kilda game where he had to ruck solo was a shambles but the whole team were out of order that day. He should be a chop-out option only for ruck.

For the games Rohan misses I wouldn't even mind Cameron leaning more into his roaming forward flanker style, then Neale more of a classic hit up CHF and Hawkins at FF. If he builds his tank and can present a lot it'll get him into the game and that confidence should grow. Ultimately you're right that key forwards take a long time and it's tricky when there's AA level senior talent ahead of you. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if he is very capable in the post Hawkins world.
 
Lol I'm not playing a game. I've just listed what our current list is that fits the criteria (I have to give some cut off point) - which as I said in the description, will be updated each year accordingly based on list changes.

There's already been a fair bit of discussion on the draft and trade threads and the pre-season threads with no dedicated space for it, so thought I'd compile the data and identify currently weaknesses and strengths and how best to combat these over the coming years.

Something to discuss in the off-season. Already been a fair bit of input already as well. If you think it's pointless, that's fine and more than welcome to your opinion. Also don't need to read it if it's not your thing either.
You obviously have a lot of time on your hands and put in a considerable amount of effort into this. Predicting our list in the year 2030 is incredibly hypothetical and I would be surprised if anyone got more than 30% of it right from this point at best.

Will be plenty of names that haven’t even been drafted yet who become regulars and plenty of our draftees will turn out duds who are on the list now.
 
Our developing Key Forwards are beyond horrid. We have a few high talent developing midfielders but are missing an explosive type. Backline looks good
While true, because it's such a lonesome position one player changes that immensely.

If we could get a JUH, Cadman or one of the best in next year's draft if it all goes to s**t, then we're right back where we should be from a development POV.

We get one of those, then suddenly Neale can just be a bonus if he comes good rather than someone to rely on, and Henry can continue to develop and genuinely could be a 50+ goalkicker by next year.

It's really just one player that's holding us back from having a very good developing group there, and while they're hard to find, and usually expensive, there's some solace in that.
 
What's the knock on Neale? Before he signed a contract extension a lot here were worried about the prospect of him heading back to wa. 12 months ago a lot of people on here were optimistic what he could produce while Hawk was out for the first month. All of a sudden he does his ankle is one of the worst KP talents in the league?

Personally I am still optimistic of him having a solid career. Is he going to kick 60+ goals every season probably not. But I think it is feasible he can become a Lobb/Mihocek/Finlayson ect type who gets you 30-45 goals a season. He is tall, athletic and a really good set shot. There is a lot to work with. Plus you can't fault his VFL form. He has managed to kick bags of 4 or 5 consistently with some of the worst midfields ive seen with all our injuries.

I understand some of us are disappointed with his AFL games but like at the same time very rarely does a KP player look at all comfortable early in their career. Even JUH a few years ago and Cadman this year struggled to find their feet.

Next year I think it is well possible he contends for the VFL leading goal kicker considering our VFL team looks pretty stacked next year. If he did that it would be hard to argue that he deserves to fill Hawks place once he retires.

He did a Pod with bodymajic a few weeks ago. I highly recomend you give it a watch on youtube. Neale seriously has a good head on his shoulders for his age.

Have a feeling we might try the same thing with Edwards and try to develop him into a KPF. Like Neale he has all the traits to become a top line forward. Little know he had an 80% set shot accuracy this year.

GO Cats!
It's simple really, there's a negative connotation with most things on our board...which is ironic as most scenarios have gone to plan for us for almost 20 years now.

We saw it with Neale, and we'll see it with Holmes this year. When a player is OOC, they're suddenly the cornerstone of the future and impossible to replace.

....and once they are signed, we go too far the other way and think they're no good, or where never in much demand anyway.

Happened with Bruhn too. In 2020 there were posts on here saying we needed to get a player like Bruhn onto our list, he was the young inside bull desperately coveted.

Many even said we'd regret the Jezza trade, as we'd miss out on players like him, Henry, and whichever other prospect was the next big thing of that year.

It was the same with Knevitt a year later, and Clark a year after that.

.....And as soon as they got here, not only where many of those same posters turning on them, but we also needed another "Young inside bull to replace Danger & Selwood" - Which was the tag we'd already given to those players beforehand.

It pays to read and remember posts from years prior. Not only are they amusing, but you'll find that it's the same thing over and over, and you'll realise that nothing is ever going to be enough. The sky is perpetually falling.

I don't know what to call it, it's a mixture of many things tbh.

It's a bit of pessimism, and in a weird way, it's like football capitalism/consumerism.

We always need the next big thing, every product (or in this case, player) is the missing piece, the final completion of the puzzle.

Then you get them, and you suddenly think we need more, and then more, and more after that.

Now, I'm not suggesting we can't get things wrong, God knows I have....but it does get old after a while.

A bit more balance is probably required, and maybe things are never as good as they seem, nor are they as bad.

The likes of Bruhn, Knevitt, Clark, Holmes, Bowes and so on might not be the replacements that so many where calling them before they arrived here...but you don't have to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Same goes for Neale, he's probably not Tom Hawkins, but he's not the worst key forward prospect in the AFL, either.

I've said all along that I'm expecting more of a Cam Mooney career anyway, and that's more than okay.

Replacing legends is bloody hard work, and we're not going to have guys who just come out of highschool and fix that immediately.

But they're not duds either, and a lot of us need to realise that there is a happy medium.

I don't think anyone would have thought a bloke from South Barwon, a former steeple chaser, and a couple of Irishman would replace legends of this club and eventually become champions themselves, but here we are.
 
This is a very dramatic over the top response. Calm down. You are the one who came into a main board thread getting all moral on your high horse having a go at me first and I responded which you couldn’t handle. If you live in a glass house, don’t throw stones.

No idea where you got the dislike from, because before that moment when you had a dig at me, you had previously mentioned your personal issues on here I actually wished you well and nothing more. It seems you are the one with the issue who gets a bit of a pretentious attitude towards others like you did on the main forum
Nice backhand compliment there. I have a newborn, I don't have that much time, lol.

So people should just not predict anything or discuss any hypotheticals on these boards - because none of it will probably be right? Seems to be better than discussing our lack of social media, or injury reports for the 100th time?

It's also a discussion that already existed, that I did put a couple of hours work into when I finally had some free down time - as I enjoyed it.

Honestly I would prefer if you don't respond to me again and I'll give you the same courtesy - as you always seem to go for the jugular concerning anything I post. I just ignored you after your horrendous main board posts, and thought you had done the same with me. Now you're in here trashing something for your own enjoyment, that there's clearly interest in, and there's already been decent discussion on - which I essentially just organized into its own thread.

Everything is pointless on here. It's a forum. If we discussed just facts in the off-season, we'd have nothing to talk about. If you think it's pointless and not worthy of discussion, then there's no need for you to be here if you feel that way.

I don't want to get into another thing with you, as I honestly don't care about that s**t anymore on here. You obviously don't like me, respect me, and think I'm 'hysterical' as you put it at the time, so if it's all the same, I'd prefer if you don't respond to my posts anymore. I've already given you the same courtesy, I'd appreciate you do the same to minimize any further derailing of the thread.

If you could delete your last post and then I'll delete this one, and we can both put each other on ignore - I think that's the most amicable way to move forward.

Cheers.
Guys, you're both really good posters and are valued around here.

Not saying we can't have spats, as I've had a few myself...but it's pointless and just continues the pessimism and walking on eggshells mentality that we've got around here.

I don't know about the history between you guys, but you've both been exceptionally polite and considerate in my dealings with you both, so I don't know what's going on here.

It's a tough time of year with no footy, but I'm with Shadow. If we can't discuss hypotheticals, then we might as well all pack up and get off this site. It's quite literally 90% of the content on here.

Grab yourselves a cold one, and take a deep breath, none of this rubbish is ever worth anyone's time, and I know for a fact that you're both very good posters/people, and above things like this.

Have a good night gents, cheers.
 
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