Media The Wildly Inaccurate but still Weirdly Accurate Mobbs Predictor: Season 37 Edition

[FootyGuy13]

Hello, and welcome to another season of the wildly inaccurate but still weirdly accurate Mobbs Predictor. Last season, the Mobbs Predictor made us think there's was going to be a 3-way tie on Mobbs Night between Tonga Bob, ljp86 and ant555. Instead we almost had a 5-way tie for the win before Tonga Bob selfishly took all the glory and became the outright winner. We had such a nice picture to go with it as well.

In case it's a rookie that's reading this, this is what the Mobbs Predictor is predicting: The Mobbs Medal is the Sweet Football Association's version of the Brownlow. The sim has an algorithm to figure out who the best player is in a simulated game and gives out 3 votes to the best player, 2 votes to the second best and 1 vote to 3rd. Throughout the season the best players should be gathering votes consistently and in the end, the player with the most votes is deemed the best in the league.

On Mobbs Night, however, you get a lot of confused looks from people when they get the highest DreamTeam score for a game but no Mobbs votes. All the posts of "Wait, I got such and such score for this game with this many disposals and kicks, how come I didn't get any Mobbs votes, this is clearly blah blah blah..." showing that people really do just look at the stat sheet and think that, because they did numbers in a game, the Sim will suddenly like them. The Sim loves us all equally, as in we all have an equal chance of having our hopes dashed by whatever shenanigans that thing works up.

But you know what I haven't seen people do between all their complaining? Actually try and make a basic recreation of how the Sim calculates the Mobbs votes and do a roughly-accurate Mobbs Predictor. Now, I'm not going to pretend that I know how the Sim works it. I doubt I'll ever figure out how the Sim works out the Mobbs votes nor do I want to, I'll leave that stuff for people who are clearly smarter than me, but you don't need to be smart to make a predictor and it's been kind of working so far.

So throughout the season, I'll go through every game and get a 3-2-1 out of the calculations, get a "winner" after 18 rounds and we'll see if I'm any good at being a "stats person" in this league. Theoretically, it should be close to the actual Mobbs Medal tally, but we won't find that out until Grand Final week. We also have the Coaches Votes, which is usually done by having a coach from both teams do the same thing but starting with 5 votes for 1st and going down to 1 vote for 5th with a player getting a maximum of 10 votes in a game. Here however, I've taken the 2 components of the overall system and given them this job as a neat little tiebreaker in case we got another tie for first.


TL;DR: This is returning, people have changed teams probably, the sim might like them now and someone might win too!​

 

[DragoDelph]

Subscribed for the cool logos

 

[DenieD]

 

[Mrs Turbo]

and i thought the Mobbs medal was a basic 3 : 2 : 1 vote

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 1 and the first Game of the Year goes to the Old Boys and Bears where the scores were tied with 11 minutes left in the quarter. While Las Vegas did get the ball down their end to have plenty of opportunities, it was Ophidian who would score the last 2 goals of the game to run out victors in a low-scoring affair. The Hawks and Bombers also had their own tight tussle, however the result was confirmed midway through the 4th quarter as East Side had every answer for every Baghdad attack.

The others game were rather straightforward. The Roys utilised the 3rd quarter to take the 4 points from the Warriors, the Dragons took advantage of the wind to get over the Royals, and it was 10-goals wins for both the Swamprats and the Furies who sent the 2 oldest teams in the league down to the bottom of the ladder to start the season.

Well that's how the games went, but how did the Predictor see it?


Rankine2Rachele King Tenz crazywildhorse BloodSwan Tonga Bob krakouers

Have we seen the first of many performance on their to a Mobbs victory, or has the best been saved for later?​

 

[Jabba73]

and i thought the Mobbs medal was a basic 3 : 2 : 1 vote

View attachment 1911399

You forgot to carry the 1

 

[Frederico_WA]

Shueygod hard done by

 

[Mrs Turbo]

You forgot to carry the 1

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 2, who backed up their opening round performance to have a perfect 6 out of 6 score? Let's look at the team results first, sheesh jumping the gun a bit.

Only one game finished with a margin below 20 points this round and with the Swamprats-Demons game having 7 lead changes during the last quarter. Wait, hold on, weren't Sin City ahead by more than 4 goals for most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters? Yeah they were before Mount Buller scored 5 of the next 6 goals to get in front. It was anyone's game until, with 3 minutes remaining and scores tied, the Demons forward-pocket in PMBangers slotted true in front of goal with the win confirmed by the Mount Buller defense in the ensuing mayhem.

Of course, there were other games, but they weren't as exciting. The Warriors made sure the Bombers didn't make a similar comeback during their last quarter, the Bears made fools of the Gumbies in terrible conditions, a Royal 8-goal opening term set up the rest of their game against the Hawks, the Old Boys also had a fast start to vanquish the Dragons early on but it was the Wonders who had the biggest win, coming all so close to having a triple-digit margin against the Roys but falling short by 2 points.

So how does all this affect the Predictor? Well a bit actually.
​

krakouers BloodSwan Cap Bovo HARPSichord Ligma

One more round and then the ladder comes out.​

 

[FootyGuy13]

Another round, more lop-sided events. Round 3 had another great contest just like Round 2 but with a goal-shooting contest as a side dish. The last 8 scoring shots were all goals, such was the accuracy at hand, giving us 6 lead changes in the last 15 minutes of the game. The Roys looked like they were gonna take home the 4 points as well with a 10-point margin in hand and 90 seconds on the clock. Well, enter stage right, the star Hawks recruit in Strigoi who had other plans when they scored not 1, not 3 but 2 quick goals to get East Side back in front. There was even enough time for Callums_Guns to pour salt in the wound with another goal to confirm the result.

That game was the only thing exciting about the round, with the exception of sausageroll who scored a League-high 12 goals in the Demons' game against the Wonders, which helped his team to lose by only 65 points. The Swamprats crushed Warrior hearts early to get the win in the Coney Island celebration of their 20th season, the Gumbies strolled away in the 2nd half to defeat the Furies, the Bears killed the contest against the Royals in their last quarter going from 8 points in front to 50 in 25 minutes while the Dragons had a 10-to-2 2nd quarter to swing momentum away from the Bombers in the Dragons big win.

Okay, enough about the team results, who had the best games individually? Well, not who you'd expect...
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Bonz Millky95 Cubs2Lions BloodSwan Chat Pile royboy2

Here's the early scoreboard, showing just how dominant BloodSwan has been so far. Just how long will this streak last?
​

 

[serial_thrilla]

Another round, more lop-sided events. Round 3 had another great contest just like Round 2 but with a goal-shooting contest as a side dish. The last 8 scoring shots were all goals, such was the accuracy at hand, giving us 6 lead changes in the last 15 minutes of the game. The Roys looked like they were gonna take home the 4 points as well with a 10-point margin in hand and 90 seconds on the clock. Well, enter stage right, the star Hawks recruit in Strigoi who had other plans when they scored not 1, not 3 but 2 quick goals to get East Side back in front. There was even enough time for Callums_Guns to pour salt in the wound with another goal to confirm the result.

That game was the only thing exciting about the round, with the exception of sausageroll who scored a League-high 12 goals in the Demons' game against the Wonders, which helped his team to lose by only 65 points. The Swamprats crushed Warrior hearts early to get the win in the Coney Island celebration of their 20th season, the Gumbies strolled away in the 2nd half to defeat the Furies, the Bears killed the contest against the Royals in their last quarter going from 8 points in front to 50 in 25 minutes while the Dragons had a 10-to-2 2nd quarter to swing momentum away from the Bombers in the Dragons big win.

Okay, enough about the team results, who had the best games individually? Well, not who you'd expect...
​

View attachment 1916288

Bonz Millky95 Cubs2Lions BloodSwan Chat Pile royboy2

Here's the early scoreboard, showing just how dominant BloodSwan has been so far. Just how long will this streak last?
View attachment 1916291View attachment 1916300​

Purple Jess

 

[Purple Jesus]

Purple Jess

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 4 and spoilers, BloodSwan's run of 3-vote games have come to an end. Did anyone take the opportunity to catch up? Please tell me they did.

Once again, there was only one option for Game of the Week. What made the game better was that one team was ahead for nearly 80% of the game. Unfortunately for the Bombers, they were that team as the Demons spent most of the 2nd half within a single-digit margin of Baghdad before Mount Buller successfully fended off any chance of the Bombers bouncing back for the last 11 minutes of the game, including kicking 5 of the last 6 goals.

Around the grounds, we see that the Hawks and Old Boys continued their unbeaten starts to the season with strong 2nd half performances against the Gumbies and Warriors respectfully while the Royals rolled over the Wonders despite looking shaky early on in their match. The blow-outs of the round belong to the Swamprats straight-shooting the Roys and the Furies struggling to find the goals against the Bears.


moginie okeydoke7 MP_ Tandy MrPremiership Harvey Manfrenjensenden

Now check out how close the competition is besides the race for first.
​

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 5: Things are really starting to get lop-sided. No game had a single-digit final margin this week, however there were 3 games
that were decided by around 2 goals with 2 of those games being last-quarter comebacks.

First off, how did the Furies lose after being in front by 43 points midway through the 3rd quarter? Better question: How did the Wonders let the Furies get in front by 43 points in the first place? Either way, the Wonders proceeded to score 10 of the next 12 goals to win the game and allow the Furies to finish the round at the bottom of the ladder where they are most comfortable.

The other comeback wasn't really a comeback, simply the Bombers stampeding home. After a close game saw Las Vegas in front for most of the match, the Bears were starting to slip away with the lead with a game-high 16-point margin with 20 minutes left in the game. At this point though, Baghdad decided to actually start trying for the last quarter and scored 7 goals to the Las Vegas' 3 to get out of 13th place and keep the Bear within reach off the Bottom 5.

The Warriors suffered their 9th loss in 10 games, although the drubbing was missing this week with Mount Buller having the courtesy of not rubbing more salt in Coney Island's wounds. The Gumbies also attempted their own comeback, but it proved too far as the Old Boys were never worried about losing the 4 points. Other games included the East Side Hawks' 2nd half dominance after being behind the Swamprats at Half-Time, and the Roys making light work of the Dragons.

Now for the part anyone reading this is after, who did the Predictor think was the best this week?


Harvey Manfrenjensenden norway blue royboy2 moginie Rankine2Rachele crazywildhorse

So despite not scoring for 2 weeks now, we still have BloodSwan in the lead for both categories. Surely next week we have a new leader.
​

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 6 and only 1 game was worth watching, so let's get into it.

The Dragons and Hawks had one of the best games so far this season, with 10 lead changes in the first 3 quarters of the match. The biggest lead has been 12 points with both teams only spending a minute being 2 goals ahead. That was until the last quarter when the Dragons got out in front by 25 points with less than 10 minutes remaining. From there, East Side seemingly forgot how to kick towards goal, converting just half of their 6 shots at goal and letting the Dragons get a goal of their own.

In other games, the Warriors finally got another win with a big last quarter against the Bears, the Bombers helped the Furies stay near the bottom of the ladder, the Swamprats came back from a goalless first quarter to ease past the Old Boys, the Roys made light work of the Royals and the Gumbies doubled the Demons score in their match.

So has someone finally caught up to BloodSwan? Actually, yes!
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MrsEddieBetts Grav thewizardmelon Tarkyn_24 moginie Ocha905

Which makes the standings look like this
​

 

[Wosh]

Round 6 and only 1 game was worth watching, so let's get into it.

The Dragons and Hawks had one of the best games so far this season, with 10 lead changes in the first 3 quarters of the match. The biggest lead has been 12 points with both teams only spending a minute being 2 goals ahead. That was until the last quarter when the Dragons got out in front by 25 points with less than 10 minutes remaining. From there, East Side seemingly forgot how to kick towards goal, converting just half of their 6 shots at goal and letting the Dragons get a goal of their own.

In other games, the Warriors finally got another win with a big last quarter against the Bears, the Bombers helped the Furies stay near the bottom of the ladder, the Swamprats came back from a goalless first quarter to ease past the Old Boys, the Roys made light work of the Royals and the Gumbies doubled the Demons score in their match.

So has someone finally caught up to BloodSwan? Actually, yes!
​

View attachment 1941731

MrsEddieBetts Grav thewizardmelon Tarkyn_24 moginie Ocha905

Which makes the standings look like this
View attachment 1941746View attachment 1941748​

Fantastic work footyguy

Go moggs Quaffing like a champ

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 7 and all margins ended up being under 6 goals, meaning that there were more close games, right? ...right?

At the last break of the game between the Wonders and the Hawks, West Coast was looking like they were gonna go sailing on home with no troubles at all. I mean, who could blame them, the Wonders were up by 41 points with 15 minutes remaining. However, this was instead the moment East Side caught West Coast napping and kicked 5 goals within 8 minutes. Luckily for the Wonders, they woke back up before conceding the victory and staved off the Hawks well enough to get the 4 points.

There was another attempted comeback between the Bombers and Gumbies as well. Not as big of a gap, the Gumbies were ahead by 4 goals with 20 minutes remaining when Baghdad tried to turned on the jets and muscle their way in front. Unfortunately for Baghdad, wayward kicking and a few rushed behinds gave the Gumbies enough time to regroup and keep the Bombers away from stealing their win.

The other games saw the Old Boys beat the Royals in a goal-kicking shoot-out, the Dragons keep the Demons at arms length, the Furies pull away from the Warriors in the last quarter to try and undo their teamsheet penalty and the Bears easily take care of the Swamprats.

So, with all that said and done, who came out of it with the Predicted votes?
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MP_ Scythe94 Tandy Shuey norway blue Brenton Davy

This is starting to become another close race for the Predicted win. Who else has reached the top of the leader board?
​

 

[Tandy]

I can get behind this.

 

[FootyGuy13]

Round 8 and we have one thriller of a game amongst a sea of beltings. Also, I don't know when the midway point of the season is.

Twice were the Swamprats ahead by 3 goals during the last quarter, and twice did the Dragons bring the margin back to single digits. It was a real see-sawing battle all throughout the match, and it came down to the last 3 minutes of the game as the Swamprats held onto a 1-point lead. Twice did the Dragons try to enter their forward 50, twice did the Swamprats defence hold on. However, not even the Swamprats could get close to their own goals as it became a battle of attrition to close out the game. In the end, no other scores were added as Sin City held on by the skin of their skin and onto a spot in the Top 4.

The Roys had an easier job of keeping the Bears away. Despite the best efforts from Las Vega to get in front, the margin was the same at the last break as it was at the final siren to give the Roys a Top 4 but only on percentage. Other games include the Royals blitzing the Gumbies in the final quarter, the Old Boys planting their foot into the Furies, the Wonders inflicting more pain onto the 2-11 Warriors and the Demons getting no troubles from the Hawks.

How does this affect the voting? Quite a bit, actually.

​

Cadsky Shuey Mooch damicky Cubs2Lions sausageroll

Now, I get to point out who our new leader is!
​

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Round 8 and we have one thriller of a game amongst a sea of beltings. Also, I don't know when the midway point of the season is.

Twice were the Swamprats ahead by 3 goals during the last quarter, and twice did the Dragons bring the margin back to single digits. It was a real see-sawing battle all throughout the match, and it came down to the last 3 minutes of the game as the Swamprats held onto a 1-point lead. Twice did the Dragons try to enter their forward 50, twice did the Swamprats defence hold on. However, not even the Swamprats could get close to their own goals as it became a battle of attrition to close out the game. In the end, no other scores were added as Sin City held on by the skin of their skin and onto a spot in the Top 4.

The Roys had an easier job of keeping the Bears away. Despite the best efforts from Las Vega to get in front, the margin was the same at the last break as it was at the final siren to give the Roys a Top 4 but only on percentage. Other games include the Royals blitzing the Gumbies in the final quarter, the Old Boys planting their foot into the Furies, the Wonders inflicting more pain onto the 2-11 Warriors and the Demons getting no troubles from the Hawks.

How does this affect the voting? Quite a bit, actually.​

View attachment 1943679​

Cadsky Shuey Mooch damicky Cubs2Lions sausageroll

Now, I get to point out who our new leader is!
View attachment 1943680View attachment 1943681​

 

[sausageroll]

In case it's a rookie that's reading this, this is what the Mobbs Predictor is predicting: The Mobbs Medal is the Sweet Football Association's version of the Brownlow. The sim has an algorithm to figure out who the best player is in a simulated game and gives out 3 votes to the best player, 2 votes to the second best and 1 vote to 3rd. Throughout the season the best players should be gathering votes consistently and in the end, the player with the most votes is deemed the best in the league.
​

Thank you for clearing this up for me. Greatly appreciated.