Competitions Tontine Tipping Comp - 2014

[bone2468]

Put me down for a tip on Port Adelaide please.

 

[samFFC]

On the last bit there, don't you have to set a time on this, like the odds as set on Thursday when teams are announced, or Monday 5pm or something? I mean, the Freo - Hawks game is a good example. If Hodge and Mitchell are named and play, I reckon the odds are going to swing back and by Friday morning we could have Freo going in as underdogs. So we could have people picking both teams and both on track for immunity.

Maybe that's deliberate and what you want, if so, carry on. But, on face value, it seems a bit wiered to me and means people can 'play the system' a bit which is not in the spirit of these things.

Or maybe I've missed something all together, in which case.

I wonder what others think about this.

Personally, regardless of who enters favourite, the odds will be super close. So if anyone selects one or the other, they are taking a risk by picking arguably the most line-ball game of the weekend.

Because people need flexibility, I don't want to restrict people to tipping just before the round starts (which would potentially happen if I lock the odds at Thursday night/Friday morning). As such, underdog status any time during the week is my preference.

What do you, and others, think about this?

 

[thefreodockers]

Put me down for Tanya Hirds mob please.

 

[freo84]

Put me down for the Bombers please.

 

[caterina]

Was going to go Freo as underdog but am spooked now, even though I think we are a big chance. So Richmond please.

 

[yoong]

What the heck.
I'll back the boys regardless.
Fremantle!

 

[samFFC]

Comparing odds with tipping percentages, there are some clear discrepancies this weekend:

GC v Bris: GC on about 83%; but odds of $1.61 imply 62%
Coll v Geel: Geel on about 82%, with odds implying ~62%
NM v PA: PA on around 73%, with odds implying ~57%
Ess v Carl: Essendon on around 87%, with odds implying ~63%

Some potential value in tipping against the grain in some of these! (NOTE: This is more for normal tipping, than for Tontine)

 

[samFFC]

Also, I'll go Richmond.

 

[samFFC]

Tips thus for Round 3:

bone2468 Port Adelaide
Caterina Richmond
cbint7
estibador Essendon
Freeeoo
freo84 Essendon
go_the_dockers Richmond
leungtl
mattis117 Essendon
Okinakashi Essendon
PantaloonRazorblade
PapaJ
Pavs_Risotto
pavsbootlace
samFFC Richmond
Seppo Hawthorn (IMMUNITY TRIGGER)
tants GWS
thefreodockers Essendon
yoong Fremantle (IMMUNITY TRIGGER)
shiny_on_top

 

[Freeeoo]

GWS

 

[PapaJ]

So samFFC, if I tip Hawthorn now, do I get the immunity trigger too, or do I have to tip them when the odds were against them like Seppo did ... the sly fox, did he know something the rest of us didn't.

 

[estibador]

So samFFC, if I tip Hawthorn now, do I get the immunity trigger too, or do I have to tip them when the odds were against them like Seppo did ... the sly fox, did he know something the rest of us didn't.

If you tip Hawthorn you'll be leaving the competition so it doesn't really matter.

 

[cbint7]

Freo for me, Sandi to play another blinder and win me immunity!

 

[shiny_on_top]

Tigers thanks.

 

[PantaloonRazorblade]

GWS for me.

 

[leungtl]

GWS please

 

[samFFC]

So samFFC, if I tip Hawthorn now, do I get the immunity trigger too, or do I have to tip them when the odds were against them like Seppo did ... the sly fox, did he know something the rest of us didn't.

As previously said, you would be eligible for immunity. We can't all be as psychic as Seppo - so this rule exists for us mere mortals

 

[Pavs_Risotto]

Richmond please sam

 

[pavsbootlace]

I will put my faith in the Port Adelaide football club this week Sam. I believe they will roll Brent Harvey's mob of pansies with their exciting brand of run 'n' stun footy. Go Power!

 

[PapaJ]

Tempted to go Hawthorn and get the Seppo Special immunity, but I'll pick the dopers from Tullamarine thanks.

 

[samFFC]

Tempted to go Hawthorn and get the Seppo Special immunity, but I'll pick the dopers from Tullamarine thanks.

Might be a dumb question (it is) - but confirming you mean Essendon?

 

[samFFC]

Okay, with that - all tips are in! Still time to change your tip if you wish - but you have <24 hours!



bone2468 Port Adelaide
Caterina Richmond
cbint7 Fremantle
estibador Essendon
Freeeoo GWS
freo84 Essendon
go_the_dockers Richmond
leungtl GWS
mattis117 Essendon
Okinakashi Essendon
PantaloonRazorblade GWS
PapaJ Essendon
Pavs_Risotto Richmond
pavsbootlace Port Adelaide
samFFC Richmond
Seppo Hawthorn
tants GWS
thefreodockers Essendon
yoong Fremantle
shiny_on_top Richmond

 

[samFFC]

Some stats for this round (if tips stay as current):

5 games currently represented, with the tips falling as follows:

Freo v Hawthorn has 3 tips (2 Freo, 1 Haw)
Rich 5
GWS 4
Port 2
Essendon 6

At least 1 player will have immunity after this round, unless the Freo v Hawthorn game is a draw (could happen!)

There are tipsters for each of the 3 days of this round, but the majority (12) are tipping in a game on Sunday! Could be a long, nailbiting weekend, and I'm glad we will have Tontine interest through to the end of Sunday night!


Good luck to all!

 

[PapaJ]

Might be a dumb question (it is) - but confirming you mean Essendon?

Sorry, was trying to be funny. I'll just stick with the officially accepted names from now on - so, yes, Essendope it is.

 

[samFFC]

Sorry, was trying to be funny. I'll just stick with the officially accepted names from now on - so, yes, Essendope it is.

That's what I thought you meant