Will Cadel Evans ever win the Tour?

[bigburger]

It took Sastre until he was 33 to win his first tour and it looks like Cadel will have to almost replicate that if he is to win the tour. Has come second twice now and realistically should have won probably both times accept for having a slack team and fading in the final week. Is it past him now or do you think he will improve further and win a Tour de France?

 

[goal sneak]

As much as it hurts me I voted no. I truly believe that last year was his great chance and unfortunately he was not given the support by his team. Next year is just going to get harder. Contador will be back and IMO he is the man to beat. Andy Schleck is just going to get better too.

 

[Next Of Kin]

Yeah I am thinking along the same lines as sneak, that with Contador coming back things are just going to get harder for him. Although he does have the team for it in 2009.

 

[Dees]

Andy Schleck only going to get better, Contador and Basso back, its going to be alot harder next year than it has been the last two years, unfortunately I think he has missed his chance. If only chicken was kicked out of the 2007 tour a little bit earlier, then he would beaten Contador quite easily.

 

[i_hate_scams]

but with all these guys coming back he will be less targeted, more big fish to watch out for.

anyway it would be fun watching them all go head to head

 

[trueblue_91]

Contador and Armstrong will be too good for Cadel, and Cadel always gets unlucky anyway

 

[sirjames]

he just doesn't have a killer aspect to his arsenal. He is a great climber and TTer but he is not exceptional at either. Personally, i think he is going to have to improve his TTing if he is going to win. His TT form is too patchy and inconsistent.

All tour champs have shown an exceptional ability in either climbing or TTing in recent years (or both).

 

[that_dood]

If he gets a decent team behind him he can.

 

[goal sneak]

His team for 2009 is looking brilliant that_dood. Kohl who won the poker dot jersey last year joins silence lotto so will obviously be great support to cadel in the mountains. And hopefully popy can pull his finger out his arse next year and do something.

 

[that_dood]

His team for 2009 is looking brilliant that_dood. Kohl who won the poker dot jersey last year joins silence lotto so will obviously be great support to cadel in the mountains. And hopefully popy can pull his finger out his arse next year and do something.

I heard about Kohl. And your right, if Popavic can last in the mountains, Cadel has to just stick with it and hopefully produce a little more in the time trials than this year. Good chance barring any injuries to win the yellow.

 

[bigburger]

It also depends on the course. This years tour really wasn't suited to Cadel it had a lot of mountains and bugger all TT kms. Though Cadel is a fairly solid mountain rider he is much better in the TT. Also on L'Alpe-d'huez Cadel really had to make the decision as to whether or not he should have chased Sastre. He chose not to thinking Frank Schleck was the bigger threat and this basically cost him the tour. Schleck suffered over the last week and in particular in the TT. If Cadel had of caught Sastre (which being so little into the climb I think he would have) and then Schleck counter attacked I think Cadel would have had an easier task reeling Schleck in than he did with Sastre.

 

[sirjames]

It also depends on the course. This years tour really wasn't suited to Cadel it had a lot of mountains and bugger all TT kms. Though Cadel is a fairly solid mountain rider he is much better in the TT. Also on L'Alpe-d'huez Cadel really had to make the decision as to whether or not he should have chased Sastre. He chose not to thinking Frank Schleck was the bigger threat and this basically cost him the tour. Schleck suffered over the last week and in particular in the TT. If Cadel had of caught Sastre (which being so little into the climb I think he would have) and then Schleck counter attacked I think Cadel would have had an easier task reeling Schleck in than he did with Sastre.

In a way though this is the great thing about grand tours. You have to be adaptable enough to deal with a 3 week race that has more/less mountains, TT, rollers, etc than what may be perfect but those that win minimise their losses and maximise their strengths. Look at Big Mig and Armstrong. Mig was an awesome TTer but at 80kgs at his lightest and 6'2" he was never going to be an elite climber but he perfected the art of minimising losses on the hills and destroying the competition in TTs. Armstrong developed an amazing capacity at threshold to own mountains and TT's.

Sastre defintely had the stronger team and personally i think that is what won it for him, not the course. The week or two of the Tour was jam packed with stages that resembled one-day races. Not stages for a mountain climber like Sastre to excel in. The stage where Devolder and Cunego got dropped is a perfect example that the stages considered "flat" can indeed be very tough and Sastre would have struggled without a strong team.

So now Evans has Kohl and T Dekker and it becomes very interesting but unfortunately for him, if he is up against Astana with Leipheimer, Contador, Kloden and Armstrong, well he is dead in the water like everyone else.

 

[likka]

Jack of all trades, master of none.

Very good rider but lacks the acceleration necessary in the mountains to be a real tour threat in the coming years unfortunately.

Given the number of quality riders missing this year and the scrapping of time bonuses, he really did miss a golden opportunity. Even though CSC played his team like a violin, it was really one that got away

Having said all this I hope I am wrong.

 

[SlainteO'Hailpin]

I actually think if he's ever going to do it, it will be next year.

If not then never.

CSC had it all their own way this year, throw in Astana though next TDF and it won't make Cadel the hunted he'll be able to become more of a hunter again.

Next years tour is going to be an absolute cracker, quite possibly the best I'll have ever watched (yes I'm pumping it up).