The Case for Tasmania

[madmug]

....and?
This keeps getting brought up - who cares?
It's seen as Vic, because the Vic league's the one from which the national comp has grown & is growing.

I thought the whole idea was to have a national competition.?
You will not get the success in the countries north if you just adopt the small minded 'its our game' mentality. Fine by me if you want to go back to the provincial leagues of last century , oh & watch the NRL keep growing on the back of the anti Victorian sentiment. The NRL just signed the massive media deal. So they will start to fight back for the hearts & minds of the youngsters & sponsors.
A head in the sand attitude to expansion & the national competition is not good for the future survival of the game.

 

[blaze036]

I thought the whole idea was to have a national competition.?
You will not get the success in the countries north if you just adopt the small minded 'its our game' mentality. Fine by me if you want to go back to the provincial leagues of last century , oh & watch the NRL keep growing on the back of the anti Victorian sentiment. The NRL just signed the massive media deal. So they will start to fight back for the hearts & minds of the youngsters & sponsors.
A head in the sand attitude to expansion & the national competition is not good for the future survival of the game.

lol, sounds like ur an NRL troll running a scare campaign.

NRL stealing kids hearts, NRL growing thanks to victorian hate (???)

NRL massive TV deal (despite being smaller and worse than ours)

"future survival of the game".. if you want to talk about the league surviving then surely a Tasmanian team is out of the question as they will cost the league money for a long time being on of the smallest clubs and not much room to expand?

 

[madmug]

lol, sounds like ur an NRL troll running a scare campaign.

NRL stealing kids hearts, NRL growing thanks to victorian hate (???)

NRL massive TV deal (despite being smaller and worse than ours)

"future survival of the game".. if you want to talk about the league surviving then surely a Tasmanian team is out of the question as they will cost the league money for a long time being on of the smallest clubs and not much room to expand?

Troll? Me? So if anyone has a view on things then the answer is to brand them?
'Victorian hate'? Maybe in parts of the country, I indicated anti Victorian sentiment. I think that is an undeniable fact.
I believe the AFL would do better across the country if it were not seen as just a Victorian operation.
The NRL has already said it would use a chunk of its new found wealth to counter the AFL work with juniors. If the AFL was seen more as a national organisation it would be harder for the NRL to dismiss aussie rules as just a 'Victorian'
A Tasmanian team may well not happen. If that were because the AFL were too busy supporting a number of busted arse Victorian suburban clubs in a national league, that would be a disaster for the future of 'our' game. Unless of course it is 'your' game & the rest of the country is not really welcome anyway.

 

[Kwality]

lol, sounds like ur an NRL troll running a scare campaign.

NRL stealing kids hearts, NRL growing thanks to victorian hate (???)

NRL massive TV deal (despite being smaller and worse than ours)

"future survival of the game".. if you want to talk about the league surviving then surely a Tasmanian team is out of the question as they will cost the league money for a long time being on of the smallest clubs and not much room to expand?

Not even poor Blaze, pathetic by any measure - troll is becoming the call of the PC Victorians & its not you.

 

[Slattery_20]

I thought the whole idea was to have a national competition.?

It is.

You will not get the success in the countries north if you just adopt the small minded 'its our game' mentality.

They're going to think that anyway, to a degree. Storm supporters know that it's a NSW-based game & still growing out of that... but turn up in their thousands, because the product is good. Do they have a problem that it's "their" game? No? Maybe something in that.

NSW/QLD have teams, those teams need to grow & improve to build support, and become ingrained - and that's only going to happen with time.

Adding more & more new clubs that aren't going to float doesn't help anyone.
See NRL, 1990s & early 2000s. Don't you find it interesting that they've stopped adding silly new clubs hell-for-leather and it seems to be going better. Maybe something in that.

Plastic clubs = plastic comp.

 

[Slattery_20]

The day the AFL administrators start worrying about what the thicknecks running the NRL "think", is the day they should retire.
Poorly run operatino - let's have a commission, AFL have one.... wait, this commission's going to take some power away from us? Screw this commission...

 

[cos789]

lol, sounds like ur an NRL troll running a scare campaign.

Not even a scare campaign just a troll's rant. Nothing that hasn't been brought up 1000 times and defeated a 1000 times.
National game - Australian Football had leagues everywhere even before the AFL re-inforced the fact.
RL has no national footprint in comparison.
Victorian game - it was invented by two New South Welshman but developed by all Australian colonies.
How can an Australian game be seen as a negative against a mutated English private school game.

.

 

[madmug]

The day the AFL administrators start worrying about what the thicknecks running the NRL "think", is the day they should retire.
Poorly run operatino - let's have a commission, AFL have one.... wait, this commission's going to take some power away from us? Screw this commission...

No one suggests they worry about anything to do with the NRL, my point is to make the competition a more properly national competition & not just a life support for keeping 10 clubs in Victoria. That would make it far easier to grow the game where they need to.
A team set up in Tasmania & another in WA would be ideal for the health & balance of the national game. IMO
It would help erase the argument in the 'northern' media that is just a Victorian invasion.

 

[Slattery_20]

No one suggests they worry about anything to do with the NRL, my point is to make the competition a more properly national competition & not just a life support for keeping 10 clubs in Victoria. That would make it far easier to grow the game where they need to.

Point of order -
The competition needs to be thebest competition it can be. (However that's measured - attracting the best talent, most even chance for every club, best to watch, best ratings, best attendances, etc etc etc)

Not the "most national" (or most new unloved plastic clubs or most NSWelsh or least Victorian or whatever the heck you're arguing against today)
There's no evidence the two are actually linked. At all. We've got this far...

Tassie (or WA Mk III) doesn't necessarily help that end any more than any other club.


If you want to watch the "most national" sport go watch hockey or baseball or something else. AFL will remain the best.

 

[cos789]

A team set up in Tasmania & another in WA would be ideal for the health & balance of the national game.

Australian Football is strong in Tasmanaia so it's not needed just for appearances sake.
You have things around the wrong way. Victorian clubs are the backbone support of the AFL.
If we look at demographics alone as the ability to support an AFL then the Tasmanian case is a little thin.
As is the case for Cairns, Darwin, Townsville, Canberra, Woolongong, Ballarat or Wodonga but vapid support for Australian Football in Tasmania probably means it would be successful and thus satisfy people who cannot look past the AFL for all things football.

..

 

[madmug]

Point of order -
The competition needs to be thebest competition it can be. (However that's measured - attracting the best talent, most even chance for every club, best to watch, best ratings, best attendances, etc etc etc)

Not the "most national" (or most new unloved plastic clubs or most NSWelsh or least Victorian or whatever the heck you're arguing against today)
There's no evidence the two are actually linked. At all. We've got this far...

Tassie (or WA Mk III) doesn't necessarily help that end any more than any other club.


If you want to watch the "most national" sport go watch hockey or baseball or something else. AFL will remain the best.

Thanks Adrian. A nice Victorian corporate view of things.
I would argue if you make the competition more inclusive of places outside of Victoria then you would get more talent, more spectator interest & more sponsorship, right across the country infact.
Of course if you chose to ignore the rentaclubs issue, & just go about looking after the usual perennial strugglers, in both the old VFL & AFL, you end up with problems into the future.
WA is growing & should have a third club. I believe Tassie would get behind its OWN club & do well. GWS & GC will struggle but offer up a good future for the game.
If you dont like what I'm arguing about 'today' then just ignore it & go & rant somewhere else. Its a free country.

 

[madmug]

Australian Football is strong in Tasmanaia so it's not needed just for appearances sake.
You have things around the wrong way. Victorian clubs are the backbone support of the AFL.
If we look at demographics alone as the ability to support an AFL then the Tasmanian case is a little thin.
As is the case for Cairns, Darwin, Townsville, Canberra, Woolongong, Ballarat or Wodonga but vapid support for Australian Football in Tasmania probably means it would be successful and thus satisfy people who cannot look past the AFL for all things football.

..

Football here is a bloody basket case. Try finding things out before talking about things you obviously know nothing about.

If having 10 Victorian clubs is SO important then why did they bother with the AFL? The VFL was broke, thats why. Some of those clubs are still struggling even with the draft & salary cap.

 

[cos789]

If having 10 Victorian clubs is SO important then why did they bother with the AFL? The VFL was broke, thats why. Some of those clubs are still struggling even with the draft & salary cap.

You seem to unable to follow the simplest of logic and history.
Yes the AFL was born out of a struggling VFL but now it has developed into a truly national competition and a truly powerful business model. Those so called "struggling" teams produce income turnovers the eny of other codes and in reality only struggle because they only receive part share of AFL income. They have established their markets.

If we look at demographics alone as the ability to support an AFL then the Tasmanian case is a little thin.
As is the case for Cairns, Darwin, Townsville, Canberra, Woolongong, Ballarat or Wodonga but vapid support for Australian Football in Tasmania probably means it would be successful and thus satisfy people who cannot look past the AFL for all things football.
That and a good stadium deal may allow new clubs to survive on smaller attendances.

 

[Rob]

Just to really ram home how hard it's going to be for Tasmania to convince anyone in the corridors of power of their suitability for an AFL team:

Population at end Mar qtr 2012
Change over previous year
Change over previous year
PRELIMINARY DATA
'000
'000
%
New South Wales
7 272.8
73.5
1.0
Victoria
5 603.1
82.5
1.5
Queensland
4 537.7
76.4
1.7
South Australia
1 650.6
14.1
0.9
Western Australia
2 410.6
73.3
3.1
Tasmania
512.1
1.3
0.3
Northern Territory
233.3
3.0
1.3
Australian Capital Territory
373.1
7.0
1.9
Australia(a)
22 596.5
331.2
1.5
Source: ABS (apologies if it's hard to read)

When the NT has more than double your population growth in *raw numbers* you know things are looking grim. WA alone grew by about 15% of Tassie's entire population just in the last year. Even SA looks like it's going gangbusters in comparison.

 

[cos789]

When the NT has more than double your population growth in *raw numbers* you know things are looking grim. WA alone grew by about 15% of Tassie's entire population just in the last year. Even SA looks like it's going gangbusters in comparison.

Percentage numbers aren't as important as raw figures, though it is a sign of economic activity.
Who knows, a new team might generate new business.

.

 

[blaze036]

Percentage numbers aren't as important as raw figures, though it is a sign of economic activity.
Who knows, a new team might generate new business.

.

i doubt a new footy team is going to stimulate the states economy...

 

[madmug]

Just to really ram home how hard it's going to be for Tasmania to convince anyone in the corridors of power of their suitability for an AFL team:

Population at end Mar qtr 2012
Change over previous year
Change over previous year
PRELIMINARY DATA
Source: ABS (apologies if it's hard to read)

When the NT has more than double your population growth in *raw numbers* you know things are looking grim. WA alone grew by about 15% of Tassie's entire population just in the last year. Even SA looks like it's going gangbusters in comparison.

The last 12 months here have been terrible after quite a long positive period. That is because of the cumulative effects of having a lot of non mining primary produce exports & the absurdly high Aussie dollar. The large forest industry here is in turmoil. Some people have gone looking for work in the mining industry in places like WA & NT. Its the North & West of Tasmania that have suffered the worst in all this.
This will probably start to even out as the mining industry slows down, as it now is. The whole country will start to really struggle if the A$ doesnt come down.
Some pundits are saying our car industry & other manafacturing will crumble & be virtually non existant in 5 years time. This will really hurt places like Melbourne & Adelaide in particular. Under employment is becoming a real problem for all of the Eastern states that relly on 2nd & tertiary industry.
Using data that looks backwards without any other analysis is not very instructive for the future. If you look you might see that in 2010/11 the NT had the countrys lowest growth rate, 2011/12 it is up again, so things change.

Raw, short term population data is only a factor in what makes running an AFL team possible.

 

[cos789]

i doubt a new footy team is going to stimulate the states economy...

Football is a $1 billion a year business.
Team turnovers are in the order of $35 million.
Throw in the possible construction of stadia and the increase in football tourism and tourism through added exposure in the small population of 500 million and flow on effects - it wont be insignificant but I wasn't suggesting a panecea by any means.

.

 

[Rob]

The last 12 months here have been terrible after quite a long positive period. That is because of the cumulative effects of having a lot of non mining primary produce exports & the absurdly high Aussie dollar. The large forest industry here is in turmoil. Some people have gone looking for work in the mining industry in places like WA & NT. Its the North & West of Tasmania that have suffered the worst in all this.

I appreciate you're trying to be as positive as humanly possible about Tassie, but Tasmania has been in the s**t for at least the past 20 years. Virtually no population growth or economic growth during that time, and most years is the poorest performing state. I am aware of at least some of the reasons behind that, but theres no point debating those here.

This will probably start to even out as the mining industry slows down, as it now is. The whole country will start to really struggle if the A$ doesnt come down.
Some pundits are saying our car industry & other manafacturing will crumble & be virtually non existant in 5 years time. This will really hurt places like Melbourne & Adelaide in particular. Under employment is becoming a real problem for all of the Eastern states that relly on 2nd & tertiary industry.
Using data that looks backwards without any other analysis is not very instructive for the future. If you look you might see that in 2010/11 the NT had the countrys lowest growth rate, 2011/12 it is up again, so things change.

Raw, short term population data is only a factor in what makes running an AFL team possible.

I agree with most of what you say here, but in the context of being able to support an AFL team (or at least convincing the AFL Commission of the ability to support an AFL team) there is no demographic or economic statistic or prediction that is in Tassie's favour. Since the start of this century, WA has gained more people than Tassie's total population. Tassie gained about 40,000 new residents during that time, whilst the Gold Coast has gained around 210,000. Just the Gold Coast. Even Adelaide gained 120,000, and Canberra 110,000. And let's not even get into economic statistics like GSP per capita, which has Tassie well on the bottom of the list.

Every year that goes by makes it harder. Consequently unless there's a radical shift in the outlook for the state (which is probably going to require a seismic change in Tasmanian politics) it's impossible to see a new licence being granted down there. Clearly the best bet is to get a relocation.

 

[madmug]

I appreciate you're trying to be as positive as humanly possible about Tassie, but Tasmania has been in the s**t for at least the past 20 years. Virtually no population growth or economic growth during that time, and most years is the poorest performing state. I am aware of at least some of the reasons behind that, but theres no point debating those here.



I agree with most of what you say here, but in the context of being able to support an AFL team (or at least convincing the AFL Commission of the ability to support an AFL team) there is no demographic or economic statistic or prediction that is in Tassie's favour. Since the start of this century, WA has gained more people than Tassie's total population. Tassie gained about 40,000 new residents during that time, whilst the Gold Coast has gained around 210,000. Just the Gold Coast. Even Adelaide gained 120,000, and Canberra 110,000. And let's not even get into economic statistics like GSP per capita, which has Tassie well on the bottom of the list.

Every year that goes by makes it harder. Consequently unless there's a radical shift in the outlook for the state (which is probably going to require a seismic change in Tasmanian politics) it's impossible to see a new licence being granted down there. Clearly the best bet is to get a relocation.

 

[madmug]

I appreciate you're trying to be as positive as humanly possible about Tassie, but Tasmania has been in the s**t for at least the past 20 years. Virtually no population growth or economic growth during that time, and most years is the poorest performing state. I am aware of at least some of the reasons behind that, but theres no point debating those here.



I agree with most of what you say here, but in the context of being able to support an AFL team (or at least convincing the AFL Commission of the ability to support an AFL team) there is no demographic or economic statistic or prediction that is in Tassie's favour. Since the start of this century, WA has gained more people than Tassie's total population. Tassie gained about 40,000 new residents during that time, whilst the Gold Coast has gained around 210,000. Just the Gold Coast. Even Adelaide gained 120,000, and Canberra 110,000. And let's not even get into economic statistics like GSP per capita, which has Tassie well on the bottom of the list.

Every year that goes by makes it harder. Consequently unless there's a radical shift in the outlook for the state (which is probably going to require a seismic change in Tasmanian politics) it's impossible to see a new licence being granted down there. Clearly the best bet is to get a relocation.

I appreciate you're trying to be as positive as humanly possible about Tassie, but Tasmania has been in the s**t for at least the past 20 years. Virtually no population growth or economic growth during that time, and most years is the poorest performing state. I am aware of at least some of the reasons behind that, but theres no point debating those here.



I agree with most of what you say here, but in the context of being able to support an AFL team (or at least convincing the AFL Commission of the ability to support an AFL team) there is no demographic or economic statistic or prediction that is in Tassie's favour. Since the start of this century, WA has gained more people than Tassie's total population. Tassie gained about 40,000 new residents during that time, whilst the Gold Coast has gained around 210,000. Just the Gold Coast. Even Adelaide gained 120,000, and Canberra 110,000. And let's not even get into economic statistics like GSP per capita, which has Tassie well on the bottom of the list.

Every year that goes by makes it harder. Consequently unless there's a radical shift in the outlook for the state (which is probably going to require a seismic change in Tasmanian politics) it's impossible to see a new licence being granted down there. Clearly the best bet is to get a relocation.

Not quite right. The Tasmanian economic performance in the Decade preceding the last couple of years was excellent. Things are certainly tough right now.
If WA has grown so much why hasnt it got a 3rd team yet?
This is my argument, TO Many Teams In Victoria.
I believe the a Team here would do well. One team in one state would engender a lot of partisan support. A relocated club is pointless IMO, just another busted suburban club not surviving in its community. If its good enough for the people in GWS to have their own team (even though they never asked for a team!!), & WA & SA & GC, then its good enough for us.
Also if you are going to look at some bare statistics, look at the stats in yesterdays GF. Hawthorn won on nearly all counts, except on the scoreboard. Passion & determination do count, a lot!!!

 

[Rob]

Not quite right. The Tasmanian economic performance in the Decade preceding the last couple of years was excellent. Things are certainly tough right now.

Yeah, no it wasn't. Tasmania has had the lowest GSP per capita out of all Australian states every single year for the past 20. Which is made to look even worse given the population has barely grown during that time. The economy has increased by around 135% over that period - a seemingly impressive stat - except when you take into account that is by far the lowest growth rate of every state. NSW 150%, Victoria 160%, WA 280%, SA 153%, Queensland 250%, ACT 200%, NT 200%.

Like I said, it's not getting any easier.

If WA has grown so much why hasnt it got a 3rd team yet?

Shows you how bloody hard it is to get a team doesn't it? But i'll tell you one thing - the longer it goes on, the more likely WA is to get a 3rd team than Tassie is to get a 1st.

This is my argument, TO Many Teams In Victoria.
I believe the a Team here would do well. One team in one state would engender a lot of partisan support. A relocated club is pointless IMO, just another busted suburban club not surviving in its community. If its good enough for the people in GWS to have their own team (even though they never asked for a team!!), & WA & SA & GC, then its good enough for us.

That's all great, but it needs to be shown that it can support it. The AFL, despite their many failings, are a professionally run organisation that makes decisions based on sound reasoning (or at least what they believe to be sound reasoning). That's what's made them so successful over the past 20 years or so.

For instance, arguments like this will get nowhere:

Also if you are going to look at some bare statistics, look at the stats in yesterdays GF. Hawthorn won on nearly all counts, except on the scoreboard. Passion & determination do count, a lot!!!

When you're talking about spending millions a year on a new club, passion and determination mean precisely dick. Come up with something a little more quantitative.

 

[madmug]

Yeah, no it wasn't. Tasmania has had the lowest GSP per capita out of all Australian states every single year for the past 20. Which is made to look even worse given the population has barely grown during that time. The economy has increased by around 135% over that period - a seemingly impressive stat - except when you take into account that is by far the lowest growth rate of every state. NSW 150%, Victoria 160%, WA 280%, SA 153%, Queensland 250%, ACT 200%, NT 200%.

Like I said, it's not getting any easier.
Shows you how bloody hard it is to get a team doesn't it? But i'll tell you one thing - the longer it goes on, the more likely WA is to get a 3rd team than Tassie is to get a 1st.

That's all great, but it needs to be shown that it can support it. The AFL, despite their many failings, are a professionally run organisation that makes decisions based on sound reasoning (or at least what they believe to be sound reasoning). That's what's made them so successful over the past 20 years or so.

For instance, arguments like this will get nowhere:

When you're talking about spending millions a year on a new club, passion and determination mean precisely dick. Come up with something a little more quantitative.

Quantitative, sure.
Of 10 clubs in Victoria, 4 of them have to sell games interstate for financial reasons. I guess thats Quantitative.
The cost of running a team is somewhere north of $35million. I dont think that is beyond a state that has a GSP of nearly $24Billion. One team will get all the attention locally, rather than the lopsided situation in Victoria where some clubs are clearly behind the 8ball.
And as is quite evident, Passion & determination are required, not just the money. Otherwise, as above, some Victorian clubs would not exist. Clearly a business plan & the passion go hand in hand. Also 515k people & two clean skin stadiums are enough to support a team.

 

[Rob]

Quantitative, sure.
Of 10 clubs in Victoria, 4 of them have to sell games interstate for financial reasons. I guess thats Quantitative.

You've just made an argument that there are too many teams in Victoria, not that Tassie should have one.

And it's pretty much accepted that Victoria are grossly overrepresented.

The cost of running a team is somewhere north of $35million. I dont think that is beyond a state that has a GSP of nearly $24Billion.

By the same token, SA has nearly 4 times the GSP, yet struggles to support 2 sides.

One team will get all the attention locally, rather than the lopsided situation in Victoria where some clubs are clearly behind the 8ball.
And as is quite evident, Passion & determination are required, not just the money. Otherwise, as above, some Victorian clubs would not exist. Clearly a business plan & the passion go hand in hand. Also 515k people & two clean skin stadiums are enough to support a team.

Absolutely passion and determination are required, but that's at club level, not at commission level.

 

[blaze036]

Quantitative, sure.
Of 10 clubs in Victoria, 4 of them have to sell games interstate for financial reasons. I guess thats Quantitative.
The cost of running a team is somewhere north of $35million. I dont think that is beyond a state that has a GSP of nearly $24Billion. One team will get all the attention locally, rather than the lopsided situation in Victoria where some clubs are clearly behind the 8ball.
And as is quite evident, Passion & determination are required, not just the money. Otherwise, as above, some Victorian clubs would not exist. Clearly a business plan & the passion go hand in hand. Also 515k people & two clean skin stadiums are enough to support a team.

you REALLY dont want victoria to have 10 teams do you... lol

It seems all your arguments are based around how victoria shouldn't have 10 teams as your first main point rather than the argument for tasmania to have one.

someone needs to create a seperate thread about should victoria have 10 teams and discuss it there