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AFL Power Rankings 2014

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Roby said:
Betting tips round 2

With Carlton's late outs the rankings are putting more money on the Tigers line.

Richmond vs Carlton (-10.5) - $1 @ $2 Betstar

This week's betting tips.
Click to expand...

Hmmm. I, too, love to bet on an old line with new information. The time machine comes in handy for this sort of thing.

BTW, it's common practice but also a large mistake to bet into a game because of late withdrawals. The market has already factored in those changes quite efficiently. Unless you have some divine insight into the impact of those players of course ...
 

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dclaz said:
Here are some 'power ratings' for all teams over the last 2 years that aren't just completely bullshit, if anyone cares:
http://i.imgur.com/o1Jd4ex.png

Using my model for tips last year, I got ~76% correct which I think its pretty good.
Click to expand...
Melbourne's descent is frightening.
 
Roby said:
Neither is more likely because it isn't recorded. I can only go by memory, and possibly Geelong may have been as low as 8th in 2007 but I had a different model. If I applied this model I would need to watch all the games and therefore impossible to tell retrospectively. Without the umpiring and player weightings they wouldn't of dropped lower than 8th.
Click to expand...
You can certainly say that happening across the lower bound of a population of 117 VFL/AFL premierships in a sample of three is unlikely.

It's like we have a bag with 117 marbles in it, and you've drawn three; the lowest number is 7, and you conclude that none of the other 114 marbles left in the bag, nor any future marbles that may be added, can possibly be lower than this, the lowest you've ever seen.
 
Roby said:
Power Rankings round two preview – remember the teams coming off the bye don't win (unless you're lucky like Port Adelaide)

Port Adelaide (9th) vs Adelaide (4th)


So for the first game at Adelaide Oval for the showdown the rankings are predicting a draw due to the fact that AFL teams cannot win by 0.13 points. So what do you think has more weighting, Adelaide’s ranking or their outs? In this case it's there outs, how lucky is Port. They'll probably win with a lucky bounce.
Click to expand...

Thank God troll Roby is back.
 

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swiftdog said:
OK, so I've decided to put up some alternate rankings using the Colley Matrix System (I'll post a link up also). This system is very basic in nature and somewhat primitive so it will be interesting to see how it stacks up with a more comprehensive and detailed system like Roby's. The premise of the Colley system is simple - winning is (almost) all that matters. The system only takes into account wins/losses and strength of schedule. The biggest strength (but also the biggest weakness you could say) of the system is that it is purely objective based on sound mathematical principles (which you can read up on in the link). The cliff notes version of the system is that there are 9 ranking points shared amongst the 18 clubs. Better performed clubs get a higher share of the points and worse performed teams have a lower share of the points. It is likely to look very similar to the AFL ladder. At the beginning of the season, all teams are on 1/2 a point as no team is any stronger than any other - no matches have been played yet. However, now that round 1 has been and gone here are the post round 1 rankings:

1. Fremantle - 5/8 or .625
1. West Coast - 5/8 or .625
1. Essendon - 5/8 or .625
1. Hawthorn - 5/8 or .625
1. GWS - 5/8 or .625
1. Geelong - 5/8 or .625
1. Port Adelaide - 5/8 or.625
1. St.Kilda - 5/8 or .625
1. Gold Coast - 5/8 or .625
10. Richmond - 3/8 or .375
10. Melbourne - 3/8 or .375
10. Carlton - 3/8 or .375
10. Adelaide - 3/8 or .375
10. Sydney - 3/8 or .375
10. Brisbane - 3/8 or .375
10. North Melbourne - 3/8 or .375
10. Western Bulldogs - 3/8 or .375
10. Collingwood - 3/8 or .375

As you can see, all teams are either rated as number 1 or number 10. This is simply because all teams are either 1-0-0 or 0-0-1 and all the teams that are 1-0-0 have played teams that are 0-0-1 and vice-versa. In short, all the teams that won in round 1 have had the same strength of schedule as have all the teams that lost in round 1. Thus, this creates only 2 different ratings for teams so far. Naturally, as more games are played, more data will be available that creates a more comprehensive picture.

I figure I'll do some tipping as well. I didn't have any data to work with in round 1 so it's only fair to use the favourites I guess. This leaves 5/9 correct tips for the round I think from memory (correct me if I'm wrong please):

Fremantle def Collingwood
Port Adelaide def Carlton
Geelong def Adelaide
Hawthorn def Brisbane
West Coast def Bulldogs

Round 2 tips will be decided by the bookies favourite if teams are even in the rankings:
Richmond to defeat Carlton
Hawthorn to defeat Essendon
GWS to defeat St.Kilda
Port Adelaide to defeat Adelaide
Fremantle to defeat Gold Coast
Sydney to defeat Collingwood
Geelong to defeat Brisbane
West Coast to defeat Melbourne
North Melbourne to defeat Western Bulldogs


So there you have it. A completely different and purely objective set of rankings. I'll be interested to hear people's thoughts. More detailed information can be found at http://www.colleyrankings.com/matrate.pdf.
Click to expand...

Interesting, checking out that method now.
 
Rourke said:
Hmmm. I, too, love to bet on an old line with new information. The time machine comes in handy for this sort of thing.

BTW, it's common practice but also a large mistake to bet into a game because of late withdrawals. The market has already factored in those changes quite efficiently. Unless you have some divine insight into the impact of those players of course ...
Click to expand...

So the market already factored in Carlton losing Kreuzer before Kreuzer was out? I don't know, if a key player is left out of the lineup late it seems like that's important.
 
Richo83 said:
So the market already factored in Carlton losing Kreuzer before Kreuzer was out? I don't know, if a key player is left out of the lineup late it seems like that's important.
Click to expand...

Unless you're the first to find out about the new information, the bookies' market has already moved enough cents to completely cancel out the benefit of you finding out a bit later. Also, what dclaz said.
 
dclaz said:
Very similar. It's a slightly more complicated version of it. A modification of Glicko, which is a slight modification of ELO.
More info here: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/PlayerRatings/index.html
Click to expand...

Cool, Ive always wondered what AFL rankings would look like with ELO/Glicko applied to it. Now I know.
Only thing is, those rankings are reflective/retrospective and not predictive. I suppose it would only matter for certain applications.
 

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Bunk Moreland said:
So by my calculations, that loss tonight should see us move up 3 - 4 spots. Correct?
Click to expand...
No, you see that Essendon had the run of the umpires, Hodge going down with injury and no Mitchell means that Hawthorn were at a severe disadvantage so they should have lost, ergo Essendon moves down to last
 
inbetween said:
Cool, Ive always wondered what AFL rankings would look like with ELO/Glicko applied to it. Now I know.
Only thing is, those rankings are reflective/retrospective and not predictive. I suppose it would only matter for certain applications.
Click to expand...
If they give a reasonable estimate of the teams current ability, it can be used predictively.
 

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