AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[X_box_X]

I kept on clicking "update odds" about 25 mins ago on Pinnacle in the AFL markets.

The odds on the Tigers Dees total was going ******* nuts. $1.92 to $1.99 to $2.07 to $2.12 in literally a matter of ten seconds. Then it started going back down to $2.07, $2.05, $1.98. All that movement in about one minute.

I have been keeping that to myself for quite a while but I'm not sure I have much to gain. The dynamic odds of pinnacle means I will always get opportunities to back something at high odds. We all will.

Obviously this only happens sometimes. It will continue to happen in tonight's game I reckon. You just have to be ready for when the odds start moving.

 

[Jugada]

Yeah don't agree with the love for the Dees either. You might think the Tigers have beaten nobody, but they have still beaten every team they have played and covered the line comfortably in the matches they were expected to win. Dees have lost their last 2 and failed to cover the line in their past 3

Tigers deserve to be solid favourites

 

[ryan_7911]

People betting on Demons based on the fact Tigers have beaten nobody, but what have Demons done? Beaten an injury riddled round 1 saints, jus got away vs carlton with over 50% of the game being 1 score or less, and trailing in the 4th, lost to geelong (yeh demons had injuries), and lost at home to freo...

I am not decided either way, I am just wondering how that is a valid reason to bet against the Tigers, when Demons seem to have done even less..?

I'm also still on the fence but just can't get past Melbourne winning the past 3 Anzac eve matches.

 

[X_box_X]

I reckon Dusty may spend a bit more time forward tonight.

I have him scoring over 11.0 pts with Pointsbet.

Edit. Also got on him at $10 for most goals.

 

[Jugada]

I'm also still on the fence but just can't get past Melbourne winning the past 3 Anzac eve matches.

There's only been 2 hasn't there?

 

[X_box_X]

It's raining in the western suburbs. I'm about 40 mins from the 'G.

 

[ryan_7911]

There's only been 2 hasn't there?

My bad, yeah 2 Anzac eve matches. Melbourne have won the last 3 games against Richmond.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

$30 on Demons h2h @$2.31 (powered)

 

[Zevon]

Melbourne have won the last 3 games against Richmond.

No Gawn tonight, and Richmond are in much better nick this year than they were in their past three against Melbourne. I do take your point that it's hard to overlook recent history but those factors probably diminish its relevance a little tonight.

 

[tangolikelama]

Taken Dees

H2h $50 @2.25
Dee -40.5 $25 @10

 

[Zevon]

2u Richmond H2H @1.70 (UBet), 1u Richmond -5.5 @1.93 (Bet365).

Brisbane's excellent performance against the Doggies made Richmond's form look pretty darn good given they beat them by 9 goals away the week before. The Dees have shown raw talent the last couple of weeks but threw away winning positions without the experience of Gawn and Lewis on the field. Hogan's return certainly helps things but the Tigers look the most settled I've seen them for years. Happy to take the $1.70 and a modest nibble at the small line, but not going crazy.

 

[itsduffy]

Tonight I like a same game multi of
Richmond 1-39
Trent Cotchin 30+
@ 5.75

Good luck everyone

 

[applaps]

I'm also still on the fence but just can't get past Melbourne winning the past 3 Anzac eve matches.

I totally hate this stat, and stats of this type. It does not factor in anything, squads, weather conditions, anything. What, a mental advantage knowing they usually win this clash? That can go both ways, you could make the same argument that Richmond will be up for this because they know they haven't been winning this clash. It's baseless and should not factor into any respectable punter's betting.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ryan_7911]

2U Demons +6.5

 

[mookieb]

People betting on Demons based on the fact Tigers have beaten nobody, but what have Demons done? Beaten an injury riddled round 1 saints, jus got away vs carlton with over 50% of the game being 1 score or less, and trailing in the 4th, lost to geelong (yeh demons had injuries), and lost at home to freo...

I am not decided either way, I am just wondering how that is a valid reason to bet against the Tigers, when Demons seem to have done even less..?

Beat Carlton, thrashed St Kilda after the 1st qtr at Etihad (Saints weren't injury riddled?), should have been 4 or 5 goals up on Geelong (with no Gawn), but for poor kicking and was better than Freo for 3 out of 4 quarters. The problem is they have fallen asleep for parts of games.

I think Melbourne have more upside and like the value of $2.80 for 1-39. Also on under 186.5 and Dusty +29.5 possies at $3.

 

[Keystone agony]

Melbourne beat a good stkilda first up after being jumped at etihad where they traditionally struggle. They also destroyed Geelong an wouldve won easy if they couldve kicked at 50% for goal. They won the other major stats with ease and Geelong look to be a pretty good side this year 5-0.

Melbourne also had freo covered by 5 goals at half time then completely switched off and switched on again but it happened to be just too late.

The odds are probably pretty accurate. Melbourne at one point were good value, its only a matter of time before the tigers lose.

 

[langdon19]

Melb v Rich TGS in to 166 can still get 170

Yep looks like rain clearing now

I called it at 167 as clearing, no idea why it dropped further, loved it, cmon middle

 

[VK92]

Missed the crazy line movement for a better middle.
Anyway, TGS O168.5 @ $1.87 (WH)- 2U.

 

[Oraz]

2u Live bet Melbourne @ 2.35

 

[targett]

Missed the crazy line movement for a better middle.
Anyway, TGS O168.5 @ $1.87 (WH)- 2U.

Nice. I got the TAB U175.5 and T.T O161.5

 

[Keystone agony]

Melbourne smashing them in a general game sense. 35 inside 50s to 10. Dont think ive seen a domination like this before

 

[applaps]

Melbourne smashing them in a general game sense. 35 inside 50s to 10. Dont think ive seen a domination like this before

And only up by 8


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ricardogp]

Jeez this Richmond team are s**t. If they could actually hold an uncontested mark they might still be in the game.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

 

[Vhaluus]

How many other people on the middle are clenching right now? it's right on target currently.

 

[DylanR]

Melbourne are a bunch of campaigners