VK's Hot NBA tips

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Hi All,

Thanks for the PM’s. As the new season rolls around next week just wanted to let you know that I’ll be moving towards a service based approach. This will be a once off $50 payment for the entire NBA season and will include plays with insight and season long futures. I believe this is incredible value and most of you would of paid for that with the last few tips! I do spend a lot of time on plays so please do not see this as a sell out. Look forward to having you on board.

Please PM me for further details if you are interested.

VK
 

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VK92 said:
Hi All,

Thanks for the PM’s. As the new season rolls around next week just wanted to let you know that I’ll be moving towards a service based approach. This will be a once off $50 payment for the entire NBA season and will include plays with insight and season long futures. I believe this is incredible value and most of you would of paid for that with the last few tips! I do spend a lot of time on plays so please do not see this as a sell out. Look forward to having you on board.

Please PM me for further details if you are interested.

VK
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Sabbathen said:
View attachment 571824
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don't find this overly funny or amusing. bloke is putting his nuts on the line with tips and constantly smashes out winners.

want to follow him then pay. dont want to then move on.

Best wishes,

George
 
George N said:
don't find this overly funny or amusing. bloke is putting his nuts on the line with tips and constantly smashes out winners.

want to follow him then pay. dont want to then move on.

Best wishes,

George
Click to expand...
Hi George,
I am sorry you don’t appreciate the hard work that has gone into the flow chart above. A sound understanding of what variance is and how it applies to sports betting is most likely the missing ingredient you need.

Kind Regards,

Not George.
 
Sabbathen said:
View attachment 571824
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Paying for tips is a very simple equation.

1. Is the person providing the tips a winner?

2. If yes how much is the cost?

3. Can you pay the cost and are the tips still profitable with this extra expense?

4. If yes then it's an opportunity to make money

I don't use alot of "touts", but one I do use is very profitable although I prefer to utilise free tips where possible.

One thing is charging for tips (even if it is a token amount) puts extra pressure on the tipster. If they go on a bad streak then that pressure is magnified ten fold with subscribers expecting results.
 
mookieb said:
Paying for tips is a very simple equation.

1. Is the person providing the tips a winner?

2. If yes how much is the cost?

3. Can you pay the cost and are the tips still profitable with this extra expense?

4. If yes then it's an opportunity to make money

I don't use alot of "touts", but one I do use is very profitable although I prefer to utilise free tips where possible.

One thing is charging for tips (even if it is a token amount) puts extra pressure on the tipster. If they go on a bad streak then that pressure is magnified ten fold with subscribers expecting results.
Click to expand...
1a) Is there a decent sample size of bets and can they be independently verified.

Anyone thinking of buying or selling tips should first read a book called “How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth About Sports Tipsters” by Joseph Buchdahl.

“How do we know if we can beat the bookmaker? That's easy: just look at our bank balance. But how do we know if we've not just been lucky? More specifically, how do we know that someone who says he can do it, and who is selling his "expertise," can keep doing it again and again, through talent, skill, and hard work? This book examines the techniques available to answer that question, to identify those qualities, and to help the reader find value for money in an industry that appears to be largely built on trust and the influence of chance; to uncover the truth about sports tipsters and ultimately how to find the best tipsters—the "Black Cats."

One of the more interesting parts of the book is when the author talks about the website he set up which independently verified and tracked hundreds of tipsters for a number of years. A large majority of the tipsters came to him with winning records but at the end of the period the average of all of them had completely reverted back to the mean. That is not to say most of the tipsters were lieing about their records, they wouldn’t have voluntarily come to his website to be independently tracked if they were. What it shows is variance, a bettor hits a period of luck and decides they have some sort of control over that luck and it is repeatable and thinks they can sell that belief to others. It’s not to say they are deliberately trying to scam anyone(although plenty do) rather they don’t properly understand variance.
 
Sabbathen said:
1a) Is there a decent sample size of bets and can they be independently verified.

Anyone thinking of buying or selling tips should first read a book called “How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth About Sports Tipsters” by Joseph Buchdahl.

“How do we know if we can beat the bookmaker? That's easy: just look at our bank balance. But how do we know if we've not just been lucky? More specifically, how do we know that someone who says he can do it, and who is selling his "expertise," can keep doing it again and again, through talent, skill, and hard work? This book examines the techniques available to answer that question, to identify those qualities, and to help the reader find value for money in an industry that appears to be largely built on trust and the influence of chance; to uncover the truth about sports tipsters and ultimately how to find the best tipsters—the "Black Cats."

One of the more interesting parts of the book is when the author talks about the website he set up which independently verified and tracked hundreds of tipsters for a number of years. A large majority of the tipsters came to him with winning records but at the end of the period the average of all of them had completely reverted back to the mean. That is not to say most of the tipsters were lieing about their records, they wouldn’t have voluntarily come to his website to be independently tracked if they were. What it shows is variance, a bettor hits a period of luck and decides they have some sort of control over that luck and it is repeatable and thinks they can sell that belief to others. It’s not to say they are deliberately trying to scam anyone(although plenty do) rather they don’t properly understand variance.
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Looks like Tom Waterhouse and Betfair have a disagreement on how many winner there are...

Tom - "There's probably only about 12 people in the country...who win consistently".
Betfair - "...there's hundreds of full time professional punters at #Betfair & thousands of winning customers".
 
mookieb said:
Looks like Tom Waterhouse and Betfair have a disagreement on how many winner there are...

Tom - "There's probably only about 12 people in the country...who win consistently".
Betfair - "...there's hundreds of full time professional punters at #Betfair & thousands of winning customers".
Click to expand...
LOL Tom Waterhouse is currently selling his tips at a premium, not sure if that sort of comment helps his cause or not.
 
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