Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

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Dylan12 said:
Is there another group getting preferential treatment?

I saw no disabled / blind / special needs people this morning and they certainly do not number those of the elderly. I'm all for letting them in half an hour before able bodied people, but they sure as hell aren't going to be selfishly buying items such as baby nappies that they obviously don't need, unless of course that the elderly wear baby nappies and I'm missing something.
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Bingo, there you go it wasn't so hard now was it. Adult incontinence products cost nearly four times what babies do, even large babies.
 

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Jason mp said:
Agree... although in defence of the article it was specifically written to point out reasons to be optimistic and not to panic, I'd prefer the optimistic but vigilant view be highlighted rather than the doomsday stuff that a lot of the media are portraying.

The truth as always is somewhere between the she'll be sweet scenario and the doomsday scenario.
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Despite what my posting might look like, I’m not a doomsayer.

I just prefer the truth, honesty and openness.

If the government has a plan, based on projections. Lay it all out for us, and show us the projections. Both medical and economic.

There are a lot of highly educated Australian scientists, doctors and specialists in the field of viruses and pandemics who have said the way to combat such a situation is to do x, y and z. But our government appears to be a different $ based approach.

One thing I do appreciate is, that it’s not me making the hard decisions.
 
dlanod said:
Ok.

Break time.

No more class warfare. It'll get you a week off from this thread if you can't keep it civil.
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It may be a good time for a week off, nothing happening and by the sound of SCOMO today the AFL is highly unlikely to have any spectators at grounds until September at the earliest.
 
briztoon said:
Despite what my posting might look like, I’m not a doomsayer.

I just prefer the truth, honesty and openness.

If the government has a plan, based on projections. Lay it all out for us, and show us the projections. Both medical and economic.

There are a lot of highly educated Australian scientists, doctors and specialists in the field of viruses and pandemics who have said the way to combat such a situation is to do x, y and z. But our government appears to be a different $ based approach.

One thing I do appreciate is, that it’s not me making the hard decisions.
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Sometimes the truth tends to be overstated though. So is it really the truth?
I am with Jasonpm that the truth more than likely lies somewhere in between.
 
We had 40000 cases of swine flu in 2009 including 1000 deaths.
We didn't lock down anything.
Real question what's the difference this time?
 

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morsie said:
We had 40000 cases of swine flu in 2009 including 1000 deaths.
We didn't lock down anything.
Real question what's the difference this time?
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this isn’t the flu. This is a virus that people around the world have very very little knowledge of. With symptoms that continue to have very different effects on people. This is why it’s a crisis
 
morsie said:
We had 40000 cases of swine flu in 2009 including 1000 deaths.
We didn't lock down anything.
Real question what's the difference this time?
Click to expand...
www.news10.com

Comparing swine flu and coronavirus

(ABC4 News) — Many remember the swine flu pandemic of 2009. While it has an eerily similar feeling to today’s outbreak, the world responded to the two viruses differently. With the reported n…
www.news10.com www.news10.com
 
morsie said:
We had 40000 cases of swine flu in 2009 including 1000 deaths.
We didn't lock down anything.
Real question what's the difference this time?
Click to expand...
Official figure quote below from health.gov.au

the situation changing? As at 27 November 2009:
• There were 37,435 confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Australia. • There have been 3 new laboratory confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 notifications in reporting week 48 (ending 27 November 2009), with 6 jurisdictions reporting no new notifications. • There have been a total of 190 pandemic influenza-associated deaths.
.............................................................................

However you may have read something along these lines from The Australian dated today

THE swine flu pandemic that swept the globe in 2009 might have caused almost 1600 deaths in Australia -- more than eight times the 191 deaths recorded in government statistics -- according to new research that puts the worldwide toll 15 times higher than the official figures.
Federal government records say 191 Australians were killed by the virus in 2009, but US researchers say this and similar figures internationally are "gross underestimates" because they record only the tiny proportion of patients who were formally tested for the H1N1 virus.

Although some previous estimates of the true death toll have been attempted, the researchers, led by experts from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, used a different statistical method to find more accurate figures, which suggested the disease might have killed between 406 and 1589 Australians in the first year of the outbreak.

Globally, they concluded the pandemic killed about 284,500 people, although the range might be between 151,700 and 575,500, with about two-thirds killed by respiratory problems and the rest by heart attacks and other cardiovascular complications.

The findings might be interpreted as offering some counterweight to criticisms made in the wake of the pandemic that governments worldwide, including in Australia, overreacted to the threat by spending money unnecessarily on vaccines and antiviral drugs that turned out to be poorly justified by the eventual impact of the disease.
........
Full article for anyone interested

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au www.theaustralian.com.au
 
BlackGun1 said:
this isn’t the flu. This is a virus that people around the world have very very little knowledge of. With symptoms that continue to have very different effects on people. This is why it’s a crisis
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"Flu" or influenza is a always a viral infection

Swine "flu" was a virus

Covid 19 is a virus.

So calling the Coronavirus a virus or a "disease" (in itself) doesn't add anything to it's level of "danger" per se.

Also, I'm not entirely sure that it's true that symptoms have very different effects on people.

There appears to be a very high correlation between age of the afflicted and mortality rates. Add in pre-existing medical condition(s) and then correlation is extremely high. So to that degree, there has to date been a certain consistency to the likelihood of how one is affected by the virus.

What the real worry is that there is no vaccine (yet) and the true mortality rate is still being assessed

Right now there have been 198,588 reported cases with deaths of 7988, a mortality rate of 4.02% worldwide. That's still a very small sample size from a global population of 7.8 Billion AND there are those arguing that the real number of cases could be orders of magnitude higher.......up to 10 times higher, Now if that were to be true, the statistical mortality rate right now is 0.402%!!!!

I'm not attempting to downplay the potential damage Coronavirus might have longer term.

However, I am very sceptical of some of the dire projections being made for likely deaths in Australia based on present global statistics, especially when those death stats are being significantly driven by a potpourri of 3 or 4 Continental European nations with very different demographics, population densities and health care systems to those in this country.

Despite reported cases climbing at a worrying rate, deaths in Australia are 6 (six) only to date. Ages of deceased were 86,90, 95, 82 (the most recent), 77 and 78. Three were from the one aged care facility the Dorothy Hendersen Lodge in Macquarie Park. The virus was transmitted to these poor unfortunate souls by a carrier in her 50's that worked at the facility. One of the other three was a a passenger on the Diamond Princess.

Finally, there is almost universal agreement that it's early days yet , at least in Australia. I keep hearing the expression "fluid" and "changing by the hour if not by the minute"

That being the case , I would prefer to reserve my judgement about mortality projections in this country , at least until more data is available.
 
PattyKwasagun said:
That's a medical perspective, and it's very valid. But the point remains that - and it is shocking to say this - but it would be undeniably better for the economy long term to see a scenario where the health system is completely overrun and the fatalities are rising to heartbreaking numbers while most of the rest of life isn't shut down then it would be to see long term containment and all that goes with that.

Our world and our economy is genuinely not set up for a 2 week shut down. We are starting to already see the closure of hospitality businesses, with indications today that David Jones and Myer might be gone within a couple of weeks. Keep in mind how disastrous the retail sector was already before this hit, with Jeans West, Harris Scarfe, Kikki K and EB Games all hitting bankruptcy ahead of the virus blowing up. A 2 week shut down in this climate as it is will be chaotic.

But if we are talking a 2 month shutdown, there is a significant chance there will be no airlines left in the country in business. Maybe QANTAS with heavy government subsidies, but that would be it. There will be no professional rugby league, soccer, or rugby union bodies left in the country. Half of the hotels in each city will be shutting down permanently, if not more. There will be no music, theatre, or arts venues still in business.

A 6 month shutdown and every Westfield and other shopping centre will have completely gone bust and shut their doors, alongside 90% of cafes, restaurants, and bars. There will be essentially no business infrastructure left for public life, with any surviving businesses all providing products and services for people living at home.

An 18 month shutdown and our society might be in genuine anarchy. It is actually not really possible to calculate how wide-reaching that impact would be, although it would be a fair estimate that the unemployment rate could well be over 50%.

The local cafe shutting down isn't just about me losing a place to go and eat. It's about the owners and all involved now being out of work and out of pocket. On a very wide scale when you add together tourism, hospitality, arts and entertainment, retail, real estate, transport, and all the other industries that require them to be healthy to run, that is quickly millions of people needing government support to survive. Support the government won't be able to afford to give. And with nobody leaving their homes, there will be no other industries for these people to turn to for new jobs.

Ultimately that is a fundamental breaking down of society. People won't have money to eat. There won't be food to buy even if they did. It's not just a few cinemas closing and less flight options for holidays - we would quite seriously be looking at a full scale disintegration of civilisation. That's why there is just no way that this shutdown lasts that long.

It is going to get to a point where having the health system completely overrun and sick people dying in the streets will be the preferable option. As completely inhumane and abhorrent as that sounds. This isn't about people's stocks taking a hit or not being able to have the convenience of good shopping options nearby, this is about an all-encompassing destruction of the entire way our culture works.
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I don't see how you get from economic collapse to "full scale disintegration of civilisation". There are many possible forms of life and ways of organising societies. For one thing, dependence on wage labour and market economies doesn't have to be inevitable. But that's not what's on the table now. In previous moments of crisis of the scale we're potentially looking at, what we've seen is a turn toward state control- varying degrees of state planning, state control of key industries, rationing, price controls etc. Some countries have begun down this path already, and at this rate these may become the least transformative option possible. If anything is likely to lead to societal collapse it's attempting to maintain the illusion of normalcy as we currently are.

The more disturbing and more likely scenario is the continued turn toward right wing authoritarianism continuing (probably minus neoliberal economic policies). Say, Herr Dutton installs himself as PM. The borders are already effectively closed, the underlying xenophobic sentiment is there, all we need if a bit more internal repression coupled with a few carrots. Republicans in the US are already proposing previously unthinkable redistributive economic measures, Tories in the UK are beginning to consider the same. I don't want to know what happens with people this unstable in charge if we see breakdowns in global supply chains or increased competition for a vaccine.

Getting back to the state of the economy, the reality we're looking at is more coronavirus + potential oil shock + numerous underlying weaknesses. Outside Australia nothing was learned from 2008 (especially in the US), global debt levels are now much higher, companies have been artificially jacking up share prices by buying up their own stocks with government support, ever increasing financialisation etc. It's all a sham. Austerity has also left Europe in an incredibly vulnerable position, cutting and selling off public assets comes back to bite you sooner or later.

Our position might actually be weaker because the main thing that limited the effect of 2008 was China's unprecedented stimulus program. Some people have been arguing that China and Australia only staved off the effects of the crisis and would get hurt sooner or later for years, and they might turn out to be right. Massive levels of household debt, years of no wage growth, sky high youth unemployment, property prices etc. For many people the recession's been here for years anyway due to the combination of underemployment, casualisation, precarity and welfare payments that no one can afford to live on.

Of course none of the status quo was sustainable anyway. This fire season was nothing compared to what will happen over the next 20 years of climate change that we're already locked into. Societal transformation in one direction or another is inevitable, the question is whether it's possible to shift that in a direction that benefits anyone other than the utlra-wealthy.

At this rate the service economy is dead and *s knows what else. The longer this goes on, the more sectors will be crippled no matter what governments do here to force people to continue going to work. This crisis is everywhere. The US treasury secretary has apparently told some Republicans to expect 20% unemployment (Great Depression levels). It's up to governments (or if not, communities) to support workers and the unemployed through this. That means * bailouts, * landlords, * bosses. After all, if companies fail isn't that just the free market at work? Richard Branson and his ilk can save their own companies if they're willing to spend enough of their net worth.

The last thing I'll say is that if you're going to get into perverse cold equations stuff about saving the economy etc you have to be honest about the numbers. How many deaths are acceptable? Because that's what we're talking about. Overwhelmed health systems also mean more deaths unrelated to coronavirus and likely more people needing medical care for years to come. And what about rural communities and even regional centres? That's a massive disaster waiting to happen. Remote Indigenous communities even more so. Also, what happens if governments allow mass deaths? Hard to imagine there won't be significant resistance from large parts of the population or from people within governments or even police/the military in that sort of scenario.
luthor said:
"Flu" or influenza is a always a viral infection

Swine "flu" was a virus

Covid 19 is a virus.

So calling the Coronavirus a virus or a "disease" (in itself) doesn't add anything to it's level of "danger" per se.

Also, I'm not entirely sure that it's true that symptoms have very different effects on people.

There appears to be a very high correlation between age of the afflicted and mortality rates. Add in pre-existing medical condition(s) and then correlation is extremely high. So to that degree, there has to date been a certain consistency to the likelihood of how one is affected by the virus.

What the real worry is that there is no vaccine (yet) and the true mortality rate is still being assessed

Right now there have been 198,588 reported cases with deaths of 7988, a mortality rate of 4.02% worldwide. That's still a very small sample size from a global population of 7.8 Billion AND there are those arguing that the real number of cases could be orders of magnitude higher.......up to 10 times higher, Now if that were to be true, the statistical mortality rate right now is 0.402%!!!!

I'm not attempting to downplay the potential damage Coronavirus might have longer term.

However, I am very sceptical of some of the dire projections being made for likely deaths in Australia based on present global statistics, especially when those death stats are being significantly driven by a potpourri of 3 or 4 Continental European nations with very different demographics, population densities and health care systems to those in this country.

Despite reported cases climbing at a worrying rate, deaths in Australia are 6 (six) only to date. Ages of deceased were 86,90, 95, 82 (the most recent), 77 and 78. Three were from the one aged care facility the Dorothy Hendersen Lodge in Macquarie Park. The virus was transmitted to these poor unfortunate souls by a carrier in her 50's that worked at the facility. One of the other three was a a passenger on the Diamond Princess.

Finally, there is almost universal agreement that it's early days yet , at least in Australia. I keep hearing the expression "fluid" and "changing by the hour if not by the minute"

That being the case , I would prefer to reserve my judgement about mortality projections in this country , at least until more data is available.
Click to expand...
The thing is that there's still a lot that isn't known, which is why it seems fairly reasonable to treat this very seriously rather than leaving it to chance and hoping something changes.
 
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