- Aug 9, 2016
- 4,433
- 5,609
- AFL Club
- Sydney
Hi swans family,
I’ve been searching trying to find a figure for asymptomatic. I finally found a source with detailed study which commented that it’s modelling and many others in confirmation seem to suggest the asymptomatic percentage is 59-60%. If you recall the figure of asymptomatic on that cruise ship was 46.5% but that was with higher age demographic so 60% sounds right with full population demographic. This figure is very important because it then enables us to use existing data on reported cases to extrapolate the remainder herewith
Asymptomatic. 60%
Reported 40%
Serious & critical 2.1%
Death 1.08%
I would suggest that virtually all asymptomatic are under 65. Over 80% of those that die are over 65.
Over 65. 0.864%
Under 65. 0.216%
I hope you find this useful.
Your ‘Swans opposition statistician analyst’
Puke
It seems to me that this information is available but is intentionally being withheld. I suspect that is because the mortality of the virus is an important motivator to population behaviour. Fear of death will motivate social distancing which is an important determinant of virus progression and control.
I’m 62 and fit the category of 1 in 462 chance of death so I’m going to
P A R T Y.....on my own of course
Such a high percentage for asymptomatic has 3 important effects.
- herd immunity will occur more rapidly as the numbers of infected and with immunity is greater than thought
- there is greater chance of innocent transmission with 60% not knowing they have the virus
- the R0 number for the number of people one person infects is likely higher than the quoted figure of 2.5 instead being 6. Given that flu is 1.5 that is a massive R0. If the R0 hadn’t factored asymptomatic (as I suspect to date it hasnt) then the transmission will be extremely difficult to stop absent vaccine. it’s highly likely the vast majority of world population will become infected.
I’ve been searching trying to find a figure for asymptomatic. I finally found a source with detailed study which commented that it’s modelling and many others in confirmation seem to suggest the asymptomatic percentage is 59-60%. If you recall the figure of asymptomatic on that cruise ship was 46.5% but that was with higher age demographic so 60% sounds right with full population demographic. This figure is very important because it then enables us to use existing data on reported cases to extrapolate the remainder herewith
Asymptomatic. 60%
Reported 40%
Serious & critical 2.1%
Death 1.08%
I would suggest that virtually all asymptomatic are under 65. Over 80% of those that die are over 65.
Over 65. 0.864%
Under 65. 0.216%
I hope you find this useful.
Your ‘Swans opposition statistician analyst’
Puke
It seems to me that this information is available but is intentionally being withheld. I suspect that is because the mortality of the virus is an important motivator to population behaviour. Fear of death will motivate social distancing which is an important determinant of virus progression and control.
I’m 62 and fit the category of 1 in 462 chance of death so I’m going to
P A R T Y.....on my own of course
Such a high percentage for asymptomatic has 3 important effects.
- herd immunity will occur more rapidly as the numbers of infected and with immunity is greater than thought
- there is greater chance of innocent transmission with 60% not knowing they have the virus
- the R0 number for the number of people one person infects is likely higher than the quoted figure of 2.5 instead being 6. Given that flu is 1.5 that is a massive R0. If the R0 hadn’t factored asymptomatic (as I suspect to date it hasnt) then the transmission will be extremely difficult to stop absent vaccine. it’s highly likely the vast majority of world population will become infected.
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