AFL 2022 AFL Round 17

[Del125763]

Powell Pepper mention that conditions in Adelaide tonight were slippery, (im assuming dewy). Always worth a look at small forwards for goals in those conditions.

And yeah only saw the grass in the last 5 minutes of that game, but can see a fair amount of dew on that grass.

 

[Del125763]

Freo have just gone from 8 to 9 on Sportsbet for flag wtf

Weight of money.

The eastern staters that dont watch Freo regularly , dont rate them. If they were an East Coast based terms, they would be a lot shorter I reckon.

But yeah they have beaten: Melbourne, Geelong, Saints in Victoria.

Won't get $9 if Freo finish Top 2 though but even if they get Top 4, thats still a pretty decent price.

 

[Ohh Ok]

lol, I remember seeing your post just after I typed mine and when I checked the stats with 2 mins to go, I knew my bet was done but was rooting for yours to come through and Aish gets you one last touch with 5 seconds to go to get to 21 disposals

I actually had over 19.5 at $1.90 but it disappeared almost instantly. 20.5 at the price was still a great bet so I posted that. I actually thought he'd been subbed off, so was pissed that thinking that he was stuck on 19

 

[jikost]

I like big O to kick a goal tomorrow @ $2.75 pb - Darcy Fort

32

Darcy Fort

Age

32

Ht

204cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.6

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

2.9

3star

CL

2.9

4star

HO

17.8

5star

D

9.2

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.2

2star

CL

3.6

4star

HO

21.2

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.2

2star

CL

2.2

4star

HO

15.6

5star

is back in so Oscar will spend time resting forward against an undersized Essendon backline. Small go at multiples as well.

2+ @ $14
3+ @ $67

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Tailing the Big O bets jikost

2+ 3+ @ $14, $67 (pb), 4+ @ $266 (sb)

Also a hail mary on a Bomber avalanche of goals

Multi Wright 4+ Stringer 3+ Jones 2+ @ $25 (pb three leg multi bet return offer)

---

Liam has played the Blues three times, in two of those matches he kicked four goals.

Ryan 3+ 4+ 5+ @ $5.70, $17, $51 (ts)

Since the bye, Petrucelle has scored 1.2 0.0 1.2, Waterman has scored 2.1, 1.0, 1.2

Petrucelle 2+, 3+ @ $6, $19 (ts)

Waterman 2+ 3+ @ $6, $26 (tab)

Multi Pet 2+ Wat 2+ @ $18 (sb)

Multi Pet 3+ Wat 3+ @ $212 (sb)

 

[Its not the coach]

Daniher 15+ D
Stringer 15+ D

Thilthorpe ATG
O'Brian 15+ D
Berry 15+ D

Petruccelli ATG
Durdin ATG
@36 SB

Koschitzke 2+
Thilthorpe 2+
O'Brian 15+D
Berry 15+ D
@14.50 SB

 

[BloodRet]

Wright 2
McCarthy
Walker 2
Bruest 2
Rowe
Kennedy 2
Curnow 2
@11.65 lads

Daniher 3
Bailey
Fort
Hipwood
Stringer
Wright
@11.4 pb

 

[Selim]

Wright 2+
Cameron 2+
Daniher 2+
Stringer 1+
Jones 1+
McCarty 1+
Bailey
@7.40

Snelling 1,2 @2.50, 12

Hipwood 3,4 @7.29, 20.91

Draper 1+ @3

Big O 1+ @2.50

Guelfi 2+ @5

 

[BloodRet]

Quite like this Langford heat map against the Swans last weekend, a goal to go with it.
1-3 @2.05, 7.50, 23 pb

 

[Selim]

View attachment 1443114

Quite like this Langford heat map against the Swans last weekend, a goal to go with it.
1-3 @2.05, 7.50, 23 pb

TAILED

 

[mouncey2franklin]

View attachment 1443114

Quite like this Langford heat map against the Swans last weekend, a goal to go with it.
1-3 @2.05, 7.50, 23 pb

 

[md20]

Big O 2+
M. Owies 2+
R. Thilthorpe 2+
$105 (SB)



On SM-S906E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Man of leisure]

View attachment 1443114

Quite like this Langford heat map against the Swans last weekend, a goal to go with it.
1-3 @2.05, 7.50, 23 pb

TAILED

I thought you blokes were supposed to be degenerates? Where is 4 and 5?
4+@$82.50 SB
5+@$301 SB

 

[teamlenny]

Weight of money.

The eastern staters that dont watch Freo regularly , dont rate them. If they were an East Coast based terms, they would be a lot shorter I reckon.

But yeah they have beaten: Melbourne, Geelong, Saints in Victoria.

Won't get $9 if Freo finish Top 2 though but even if they get Top 4, thats still a pretty decent price

too much attention is paid to minor price changes on outright markets with bookmakers, $8-$9 is nothing on a Saturday Night

 

[dontlimitme]

Wright 2
McCarthy
Walker 2
Bruest 2
Rowe
Kennedy 2
Curnow 2
@11.65 lads

Daniher 3
Bailey
Fort
Hipwood
Stringer
Wright
@11.4 pb

TAILED THE GREAT MAN

 

[HTPunter]

Last time Lester played he took 3 kick ins, of the 6 total. Starcevich took 3 last week and there's 9 kick ins out (Rich 4, Coleman 3, Prior 2).

Would think based on that they'll share them. And also be the deeper defenders so may combine with each other.

Lester $1.83 for 15 (back pocket, kick-ins)
Starcevich $2.70 for 20 (Coleman/Rich role)

I did get on Caldwell 20+ $1.75 before odds came in further (approx $1.55) and 90+ ($3.50) and 100+ ($5.50) fantasy points.

Additionally, Nick Hind

19

Nick Hind

Age

31

Ht

180cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.5

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.9

4star

MG

117.0

2star

D

9.5

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

3star

MG

117.0

2star

D

10.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

is in great form on the wing and the key running rebounder for Essendon (Redman) is an out. Hind should be searched for as a rebounder and a wingman today running the wings.

Hind gone 75, 87, 78, 106 since the bye. I'm on the Hind train for fantasy points.
80+ $1.90 (good odds considering his worst game in a month was only 1 mark & kick chain off this).
90+ $2.80
100+ $5
110+ $9.50
120+ $17
130+ $41

Had a 122, 115 and 112 last year, 2 of them at Marvel against a weak interstate side. Lions not full strength.

Ridley should score well without Redman but he is likely to get a key forward responsibility so not likely to bet on him.

 

[Zook]

Last time Lester played he took 3 kick ins, of the 6 total. Starcevich took 3 last week and there's 9 kick ins out (Rich 4, Coleman 3, Prior 2).

Would think based on that they'll share them. And also be the deeper defenders so may combine with each other.

Lester $1.83 for 15 (back pocket, kick-ins)
Starcevich $2.70 for 20 (Coleman/Rich role)

I did get on Caldwell 20+ $1.75 before odds came in further (approx $1.55) and 90+ ($3.50) and 100+ ($5.50) fantasy points.

Additionally, Nick Hind is in great form on the wing and the key running rebounder for Essendon (Redman) is an out. Hind should be searched for as a rebounder and a wingman today running the wings.

Hind gone 75, 87, 78, 106 since the bye. I'm on the Hind train for fantasy points.
80+ $1.90 (good odds considering his worst game in a month was only 1 mark & kick chain off this).
90+ $2.80
100+ $5
110+ $9.50
120+ $17
130+ $41

Had a 122, 115 and 112 last year, 2 of them at Marvel against a weak interstate side. Lions not full strength.

Ridley should score well without Redman but he is likely to get a key forward responsibility so not likely to bet on him.

Where do you find these markets?

 

[bulletride]

Neale has kicked 2 in each of his last 3 games against Essendon, we tend to put absolutely no time into him and let him run around doing his thing and I expect that to continue today.

PB
AGS $2.15
2+ $8

 

[Ohh Ok]

Had a winning day yesterday, still cursing bloody Jack Bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

though. 3 disposals in that last quarter.... ughh

Brisbane vs Essendon
3u - Neale over 30.5 disposals - $1.75 - PointsBet
Neale has overs in 9/15 games this year and typically sees Essendon as a happy hunting ground with previous counts of 41, 37, 33 (reduced qtrs), 40 since playing for Brisbane.

3u - McCluggae over 24.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
Most keen on McCluggage of the Lions mids who has transitioned into an inside mid throughout the season. Will get a full slate of minutes today due to Berry and Zorko missing. into a more consistent inside midfield role, this has resulted in him clearing in 6/9 games excluding injury, one of those unders coming against Freo when returning from injury and registering 24.

3u - Robinson 15+ disposals - $2.25 - SB
1u - Robinson 20+ disposals - $7 - SB
Due to the upcoming talent of the Lions Robinson was dropped this season, he has since forced his way back into the side and into the forward line. Previously he’d spent most his career patrolling a wing with burst in the midfield. Today, due to personnel changes, it looks as though Robinson is going to be back onto the wing. This makes 15+ and 20+ well in reach today.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide
2u - Dawson under 27.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
Dawson has had a pretty solid month of footy which is what gives us this top end total. Only a few weeks back it was 23.5. Has gone under this total in 10/15 games this season. Grabbing this one at the top.

2.5u - Mitchell under 29.5 disposals - $1.91 - PointsBet
Mitchell is playing a different role this year and as a result it has led to him going under in 9/14 games. Adelaide opt to bring a high pressure/effort game style every week and won’t allow Mitchell to pick up some cheap possessions.

3u - McEvoy AGS - $1.76 - TopSport
1.5u - McEvoy 2+ goals - $4.70 - TopSport
0.5u - McEvoy 3+ goals - $18 - TopSport
McEvoy comes back in for his second game of 2022 and is named in the forward line. The Hawks have opted for a youth policy this season and that makes me believe that McEvoy will be deployed as a second ruck and spend most of his time forward. This will be massive in what looks to be a high scoring game, whoever Big Boy lines up on he’ll have a massive physical advantage. Is an accurate kick at goal going 100.41 for his career.

1u - Thillthorpe 2+ goals - $4.25 - TAB
0.5u - Thillthorpe 3+ goals - $13 - TAB
Tidy price for Thillthorpe who kicked 5 against the Hawks last year. Has had a bit of rough going this season with a few injuries but has some consistent games under his belt now. I’d say Fogarty will be questionable after his finger injury, and will be slightly hampered by it. That should make big Thillthorpe a better target on the weekend and set him up well for his first multiple goal haul of the year.

West Coast vs Carlton
3.5u - Cripps over 27.5 disposals - $1.77 - PointsBet
1.5u - Cripps 30+ disposals - $2.25 - PointsBet
9/13 games have gone over with 8/9 of those overs being 30+ games. Overs look the absolute obvious play today, as when looking deeper at his unders, 3 were when Mckay was out and he was required to play forward. The skipper will be driven to ensure his boys get the win today as they’re now sitting in 7th spot.

2u - Kelly under 26.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Keen to get at Kelly on the unders here, had a dream match up against Richmond last week now gets a tough one in Carlton. Carlton are giving up the third least disposals in the comp, and after a loss on the weekend they’ll be looking to bring the pressure around the ball. Has hit unders in 7/11 games this year and 10/17 last year.

 

[Mazza1234678]

The over in this Brissy game looks a good bet

Both defenses depleted and play zero accountable footy

Hawks Crows game @ Etihad, who both play daring footy and get exposed down back looks a bet too

Im multing both up and pretty confident

 

[GROTTO]

If you were a dog, this is exactly how I imagine you would look, its why I almost spat out my morning coffee laughing while seeing it.

Happy go lucky personality.

FYI, this is what I would look like.

Waiting for the game to start.

 

[GROTTO]

The over in this Brissy game looks a good bet

Both defenses depleted and play zero accountable footy

Hawks Crows game @ Etihad, who both play daring footy and get exposed down back looks a bet too

Im multing both up and pretty confident

You made me.....

 

[HTPunter]

Where do you find these markets?

Pointsbet for Fantasy points

Ladbrokes for Lester and Starcevich disposals.

 

[mac23]

Bris
Neale AGS
Charlie 2+
Robinson 15+
Clug 25+
Neale 30+
$13.50 SB

All over Robinson 15+ & 20+ too getting hammered in now.

 

[kirim]

Apparentlyatheson has been dominating reserves.. he gets a call up to seniors today.. i dont see his name on sb