Jayco AlUla thread

[eth-dog]

Rumours aplenty on the transfer market:

Groenewegen likely to leave (and probably take Reminders with him)
Welsford the likely replacement with Olav Kooij looking like he'll go to Decathlon
Fred Wright might come here but INEOS and Q36.5 also chasing him
Haig might return but he's also stated he wants to be a super domestique to one of the big 4
Zana, Bling and Dunbar all likely to pen 2/3 year deals at this stage.

 

[Orange Agent]

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Is it is simple as sponsor disgruntled after no wins in the Alula Tour?
Or more deep seated troubles.

He'd stepped away from D/S role as it's too much time on the road, they have 3 kids of high school age. Given there is no replacement lined up it seems unlikely he was sacked.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

He'd stepped away from D/S role as it's too much time on the road, they have 3 kids of high school age. Given there is no replacement lined up it seems unlikely he was sacked.

Thanks for the info.
Seems like a bit of a strange time to realise.

 

[yaco55]

He'd stepped away from D/S role as it's too much time on the road, they have 3 kids of high school age. Given there is no replacement lined up it seems unlikely he was sacked.

He was sacked.

 

[eth-dog]

Two stage wins in the Giro is good. Up to 10 wins for the year. It'll be interesting to see how Ben goes at the Tour

 

[The Kings Ransom]

So carrying on the discussion from the other thread - what are the roles for Jayco's riders?
And what should Jayco be aiming for across the year?

I'm fairly new to watching cycling so appreciate any comments on the below. This is my take

Leaders
O'Connor: Can climb. Steady rather than explosive. Won't blow climbers off his wheel but can grind out an advantage if let go off the front. TT decent. More likely to back door a top 5 finish in a GT rather than outride his competitors.
Dunbar: Can climb. Steady rather than explosive. Can't TT.
Plapp: Nice time trial, good on rolling terrain, can go up hills but struggles on big mountains, can't descend. Probably better suited to 1 week races.
Harper: Better than Plapp up the mountains but inconsistent in long races. TT mid. Probably better suited to 1 week races also.

Versatile riders
Schmid: Versatile and seems to be improving each year. A chance to place highly in 1 week races, or snatch a stage in GT.
Zanna: Showed promise as a versatile guy that can climb last year. Competitive in the classics. Disappointing so far in 2025.
De Pretto: Another versatile rider. Can climb, can ride classics, can sprint ok. Nice young talent.
Matthews: Twilight of his career but hasn't shown signs of slowing down in the classics. Probably less involved in the GT but could snatch a top 10 in a sprint or breakaway stage.
Foldager: Young guy with some potential, better suited to the lower rated races.

Cimbers
Bouwman: Seems has been a solid climber historically but is he an above average climbing support in a GT now?
Double: Adapting to the level. Shown could probably provide support in a GT
Hatherley: Bit early to say what his role is, but climbed pretty well in Saudi tour so maybe could function in this role in 1 week races. GT probably a bit much in first year on the road.

Sprinters / Lead outs
Groenewegen: Seems a below average sprinter and only going downhill
Walschied: Experienced, don't know if he's that good?
Mezgec: See above.
Donaldson: First year on a WT team. Hasn't shown anything so far in 2025, but hopefully builds into it.


Others: Probably not really needle movers and in general seem like support riders on a below average WT team.


Looking at the group, I think they've got a good set of versatile riders that can climb ok and can ride hard on the flat. But I think they're relatively weak in proper climbers and sprinters. So to me, that aligns more with aiming for a couple of Top 5 - 10 GC in GT's whilst trying to poach some stages but more so targeting one week races.

 

[eth-dog]

So carrying on the discussion from the other thread - what are the roles for Jayco's riders?
And what should Jayco be aiming for across the year?

I'm fairly new to watching cycling so appreciate any comments on the below. This is my take

Leaders
O'Connor: Can climb. Steady rather than explosive. Won't blow climbers off his wheel but can grind out an advantage if let go off the front. TT decent. More likely to back door a top 5 finish in a GT rather than outride his competitors.
Dunbar: Can climb. Steady rather than explosive. Can't TT.
Plapp: Nice time trial, good on rolling terrain, can go up hills but struggles on big mountains, can't descend. Probably better suited to 1 week races.
Harper: Better than Plapp up the mountains but inconsistent in long races. TT mid. Probably better suited to 1 week races also.

Versatile riders
Schmid: Versatile and seems to be improving each year. A chance to place highly in 1 week races, or snatch a stage in GT.
Zanna: Showed promise as a versatile guy that can climb last year. Competitive in the classics. Disappointing so far in 2025.
De Pretto: Another versatile rider. Can climb, can ride classics, can sprint ok. Nice young talent.
Matthews: Twilight of his career but hasn't shown signs of slowing down in the classics. Probably less involved in the GT but could snatch a top 10 in a sprint or breakaway stage.
Foldager: Young guy with some potential, better suited to the lower rated races.

Cimbers
Bouwman: Seems has been a solid climber historically but is he an above average climbing support in a GT now?
Double: Adapting to the level. Shown could probably provide support in a GT
Hatherley: Bit early to say what his role is, but climbed pretty well in Saudi tour so maybe could function in this role in 1 week races. GT probably a bit much in first year on the road.

Sprinters / Lead outs
Groenewegen: Seems a below average sprinter and only going downhill
Walschied: Experienced, don't know if he's that good?
Mezgec: See above.
Donaldson: First year on a WT team. Hasn't shown anything so far in 2025, but hopefully builds into it.


Others: Probably not really needle movers and in general seem like support riders on a below average WT team.


Looking at the group, I think they've got a good set of versatile riders that can climb ok and can ride hard on the flat. But I think they're relatively weak in proper climbers and sprinters. So to me, that aligns more with aiming for a couple of Top 5 - 10 GC in GT's whilst trying to poach some stages but more so targeting one week races.

Harsh on DG. Before this year he's been in the top 5 sprinters in the WT last few years. Again, I see Zana as a GT leader ahead of Harper who should be in the Bouwman group. You could add Engelhardt to the versatile/classics rider class and Stewart to the lead out group but both are average.

In terms of goals, BOC can go top 10 in the Tour. Dylan seems to be getting in some decent form now and is an outside chance of winning the first yellow jersey. Otherwise focus on stage wins and maybe Schmid targets Renewi Tour for the GC

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Harsh on DG. Before this year he's been in the top 5 sprinters in the WT last few years. Again, I see Zana as a GT leader ahead of Harper who should be in the Bouwman group. You could add Engelhardt to the versatile/classics rider class and Stewart to the lead out group but both are average.

In terms of goals, BOC can go top 10 in the Tour. Dylan seems to be getting in some decent form now and is an outside chance of winning the first yellow jersey. Otherwise focus on stage wins and maybe Schmid targets Renewi Tour for the GC

I’ve obviously arrived late to the groenewegen show.
I reckon there seems about 10 other sprinters you would have before him now.

Starting in tour of Slovenia today with Walscheid, Mezgec and Donaldson to lead him out.
Bauhaus, Teutenberg and Molano the other decent sprinters at the race.

He won the first stage last year so you would hope Jayco can keep up the momentum and keep the wins coming.

 

[eth-dog]

I’ve obviously arrived late to the groenewegen show.
I reckon there seems about 10 other sprinters you would have before him now.

Starting in tour of Slovenia today with Walscheid, Mezgec and Donaldson to lead him out.
Bauhaus, Teutenberg and Molano the other decent sprinters at the race.

He won the first stage last year so you would hope Jayco can keep up the momentum and keep the wins coming.

It's pretty much set around him. Krijnsen maybe looking for breaks to get stage wins in the middle but it's certainly based around sprints for DG. Should be favourite tonight, although Molano has been in better form this year but has a split team unlike DG.

 

[yaco55]

two stage wins for Groenewegen. In saying that I fail to understand Jayco's strategy. You only get 20 points for a stage victory and lots of suffering for a sprinter, wheras he could ride three or four one day races in Belgium in the next week where you get 200 or 125 points for a victory and less suffering from the sprinter. Then you add Jayco for unknown reasons did not a climber type to the race in SLOVENIA.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

two stage wins for Groenewegen. In saying that I fail to understand Jayco's strategy. You only get 20 points for a stage victory and lots of suffering for a sprinter, wheras he could ride three or four one day races in Belgium in the next week where you get 200 or 125 points for a victory and less suffering from the sprinter. Then you add Jayco for unknown reasons did not a climber type to the race in SLOVENIA.

I’d say all teams are using races now as preparation for Tour de France which starts in 5 weeks.

Groenewegen getting some final bunch sprint practice with his train. They might be using it as a selection race also, to determine which of the train goes with him to the tour.

He seems to have done this race just about every year, so they obviously think it’s good prep for the tour.

Getting in winning form probably also helps.

 

[eth-dog]

Dauphine team is very interesting. Dunbar is the clear leader, with Bouwman, De Marchi, Hellemose and Foldager seemingly the support crew and probably going head to head for the last spot on the Tour roster.

Also perplexed by the Suisse roster. Barely any support for BOC aside from Zana who isn't in the greatest form and the next best climber is either Bling or Schmid, two very similar types of riders. I'd have had Bling in the Dauphine and probably Bouwman here to support BOC who would be one of the favourites in the field with Almeida, Vlasov and Van Wilder

 

[Orange Agent]

The Slovenia lead outs were very good and DG finished them off but it's against second tier sprinters and his form before this has been terrible. Don't see him coming anywhere against Alpecin and Trek at the Tour. The rumour mill that he will be replaced by Welsford is not looking any better for the team outside of TDU sprints. I'm not sure why they would re-sign Dunbar, have a lot of similar riders now and hes not really improving. There seems little point to having a GC team so stage hunters are better given the GC opposition. Whatever happens with the lead sprinter situation at the end of the year, they desperately need to sign an understudy sprinter to go lower level races.

 

[eth-dog]

The Slovenia lead outs were very good and DG finished them off but it's against second tier sprinters and his form before this has been terrible. Don't see him coming anywhere against Alpecin and Trek at the Tour. The rumour mill that he will be replaced by Welsford is not looking any better for the team outside of TDU sprints. I'm not sure why they would re-sign Dunbar, have a lot of similar riders now and hes not really improving. There seems little point to having a GC team so stage hunters are better given the GC opposition. Whatever happens with the lead sprinter situation at the end of the year, they desperately need to sign an understudy sprinter to go lower level races.

Think you're being harsh on Dunbar. Two stage wins in the Vuelta last year, his TT ability is much improved since joining and he's a top 20 chance at the Tour for me. He may not ever be a top 5 contender but he can make top 10's in Grand Tours IMO. Not the Tour as we're clearly going with BOC for GC.

I'd like to see how Donaldson goes being the sprinter. Have to consider giving him Renewi with a dedicated lead out team to see if he has it. There'll be some good sprinters there.

EDIT: Apparently Alessandro Covi is coming across from UAE. Another one that can be added to the classics roster.

 

[nick23_]

Think you're being harsh on Dunbar. Two stage wins in the Vuelta last year, his TT ability is much improved since joining and he's a top 20 chance at the Tour for me. He may not ever be a top 5 contender but he can make top 10's in Grand Tours IMO. Not the Tour as we're clearly going with BOC for GC.

I'd like to see how Donaldson goes being the sprinter. Have to consider giving him Renewi with a dedicated lead out team to see if he has it. There'll be some good sprinters there.

EDIT: Apparently Alessandro Covi is coming across from UAE. Another one that can be added to the classics roster.

Covi is a decent signing for classics squad. Any further word on Welsford or any other sprinter joining team?

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Would be nice to look at out of contract riders on teams destined for relegation.
Probably in order of preference below.

Tobias Lund Anderson (Picnic) - Sprinter
Kévin Vauquelin (Arkea) - GC / Classics
Luca Mozzato (Arkea) - Classics / Sprinter
Kevin Vermarke (Picnic) - GC / Classics
Alexis Renard (Cofidis) - Classics

 

[eth-dog]

Would be nice to look at out of contract riders on teams destined for relegation.
Probably in order of preference below.

Tobias Lund Anderson (Picnic) - Sprinter
Kévin Vauquelin (Arkea) - GC / Classics
Luca Mozzato (Arkea) - Classics / Sprinter
Kevin Vermarke (Picnic) - GC / Classics
Alexis Renard (Cofidis) - Classics

Vauquelin probably to INEOS. Arkea look likely to fold too fwiw, might be some domestiques on offer

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Dunbar put in a better TT than I expected. Clearly his best ever ITT in a high level race.

Beating
Former world champion T.Foss
Current u23 world champ I.Romeo
Recent dual French national TT champ B. Amirail.

Only 20 seconds behind Pogacar
Well ahead of other top 10 GC hopefuls in Martinez, Rodriguez, Kuss, MAs etc. even though these guys aren’t TT experts.

Gives himself a chance of a top 5 finish if his legs are good. But with the mountain stages to come and the quality of the field I’d say top 10 finish more likely.

Would be a decent result given extremely deep quality here.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

On a side note reading some of the early posting on this thread is very interesting for me who is Judy getting into cycling now.

Gives some good backstory to many of the riders/opinions at the time.

 

[yaco55]

Dunbar suffered the Jayco curse of a rider in GC form in a one week stage race having a bad day which is the primary reason why they are struggling for UCI points. They need to look at their training program.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Dunbar suffered the Jayco curse of a rider in GC form in a one week stage race having a bad day which is the primary reason why they are struggling for UCI points. They need to look at their training program.

Yeah 6 good days, 1 poor day for Dunbar defeats basically the whole teams objectives for the week. Without the coverage of earlier in the stage it's hard to know exactly what happened - did he drop on the first of the 3 mountains? seems like it.

Thought Foldager did ok in his role as a versatile sprinter. Be interested to see how he goes if he could find races that suited his skills more.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Is it just hometown bias - but is BOC decent odds here for Tour Suisse?

He's 2 minutes ahead of Almeida after the 1st stage.
Vauquelin and Gregoire are good young riders who are in form, but never been competitive in the mountains to the level of BOC.

I think BOC will be fine in stage 2,3,4,6
Stage 5 and 7 look a little tough for him - steep climbs right near the end of the stage.
Stage 8 time trial is 10km climb - I think something he should be pretty capable of.

BOC clearly been on a training block prior to Suisse in preparation for the Tour. I think he's decent value at least.

 

[eth-dog]

Is it just hometown bias - but is BOC decent odds here for Tour Suisse?

He's 2 minutes ahead of Almeida after the 1st stage.
Vauquelin and Gregoire are good young riders who are in form, but never been competitive in the mountains to the level of BOC.

I think BOC will be fine in stage 2,3,4,6
Stage 5 and 7 look a little tough for him - steep climbs right near the end of the stage.
Stage 8 time trial is 10km climb - I think something he should be pretty capable of.

BOC clearly been on a training block prior to Suisse in preparation for the Tour. I think he's decent value at least.



View attachment 2344353

The ITT finish favours Almeida. He'll need a minute on him to stay ahead.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

The ITT finish favours Almeida. He'll need a minute on him to stay ahead.

Yeah, I think Almeida should be the favourite and most likely to win.
But I think BOC is good value, as don't see the other 2 as real competitors to win the race.

 

[Orange Agent]

Who replaces Bling for TDF?

I feel like BOC has earnt himself a climbing helper after this week. Other than Dunbar I'm not seeing much help. Schmid a little bit maybe, Bouwman would have been ideal but I see he is down for Tour of Austria. I've heard suggestions of Plapp but I think that's ridiculous.