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Analysis Power Rankings 2019

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Sometimes the ladder doesn't give a true indication of which teams are better than others, particularly with fixturing differences and luck of the draw. Likewise, although every win is worth 4 points, some wins and losses are certainly more impressive or damning than others. Power rankings is a good way to track and rate teams looking beyond the ladder, but the important difference is it's a subjective opinion rather than an objective measure.
Early on in the season power rankings are based more on preseason expectations and predictions, with round 1 results taken into account too. I'm keen to revisit my power rankings each round of 2019, so if you have your own please feel free to post yours along during the year as well for discussion.

Anyway, here's my power rankings at the end of round 1 compared to actual ladder position.

1. West Coast Eagles (0-1) Ladder Position: 16th
Fully expected the Eagles to start slow after the flag and the longest road trip in footy, over to the Gabba where the Lions will beat a lot sides this year. Won the flag last year and will get back Gaff, Nic Nat and Sheppard so they hold number 1 spot based on that. Won't lose in Perth.

2. Richmond Tigers (1-0) Ladder Position: 5th
Were in not for a season ending injury to Alex Rance, Richmond would arguably be sitting in 1st spot in these rankings based on adding Tom Lynch. However until we see how the Tigers go without the greatest defender of the modern era, I'm reluctant to call them the best team in it.

3. GWS Giants (1-0) Ladder Position: 1st
Hugely impressive win, even moreso considering the players they are still missing like Kelly, Patton, Ward and Mumford. Will be a serious contender in 2019.

4. Geelong (1-0) Ladder Position: 8th
Didn't expect them to beat a great Collingwood midfield, but their own midfield of Dangerfield, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan, Ablett, Parfitt with a key target in Hawkins to kick to gives them some credit. Will probably not lose at GMHBA in Geelong either.

5. Collingwood Magpies (0-1) Ladder Position: 11th
They get into 5th based on their finish to 2018 where they beat the Tigers at the 'G and got within a kick of the flag. Added Beams to an already elite midfield, and with Grundy and the return of some talented players, they will be thereabouts for top 4.

6. Melbourne Demons (0-1) Ladder Position: 13th
I still think the Demons can challenge for the flag, but they sorely missed Lever and May on the weekend. Still, should not have lost to Port Adelaide at home so they slip down from where I would have had them top 3 had of they won.

7. Brisbane Lions (1-0) Ladder Position: 3rd
Heaps of young talent, I reckon the Lions will surprise and play finals. Nothing better than kicking off the season causing an upset over the reigning premiers. If their young kids can stay consistent, they will trouble anyone at the Gabba.

8. Essendon Bombers (0-1) Ladder Position: 18th
On paper, they look good. Not so much in practice, but willing to forgive based on the fact they played a very good opponent away.

9. Adelaide Crows (0-1) Ladder Position: 15th
Expected to go well based on the return of key players, however I'm not sold. I have them between 8-10th but already some key injuries put them back.

10. Port Adelaide Power (1-0) Ladder Position: 6th
They caused a big upset with a great win, but I'm not sure they can maintain that form. Should start 2-0 against Carlton though, but prefer to watch them for longer before raising them up the ranks.

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) Ladder Position: 4th
Similar to Port Adelaide, a great upset win away, but not sure they can hold that form. Will start 2-0 against the Dogs you would think, but again still watching them.

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-0) Ladder Position: 2nd
An enormous win against a terrible team that looked nowhere near it. They attacked really well which is unlike them. Probably underrating them here, but one win at home against a rubbish travelling team doesn't boost them up too high.

13. Western Bulldogs (1-0) Ladder Position: 7th
Beat the Swans at home, who I don't think are much chop right now. Not expected to challenge for the 8, they'll be around the 10th-14th mark all year, with the occasional upset win.

14. Sydney Swans (0-1) Ladder Position: 12th
Hard to read. If they find their mojo they could climb into the 8, but a lot depends on Franklin, who is going to need to win a few matches off his own boot. Their team is far too workman-like outside of Franklin.

15. Carlton Blues (0-1) Ladder Position: 14th
They actually weren't disgraced in round 1, and expect them to pinch a few upset wins this year. Won't play finals, but will win a handful of games through the year.

16. North Melbourne Kangaroos (0-1) Ladder Position: 17th
Massive disappointment against a team they should have beat with their injuries. No excuses, just didn't turn up. Will battle to a few wins this year and rise a little higher than this, but won't play finals.

17. St Kilda Saints (1-0) Ladder Position: 9th
Bottom 2, and they fell over the line against Gold Coast. Other teams are going to destroy them.

18. Gold Coast Suns (0-1) Ladder Position: 10th
For mine, they are a lock for the wooden spoon. Lost key players and leaders in the off season, I don't expect them to rise out of 18th spot in the rankings, although they could possibly climb above the Saints, Roos or Blues if they have poor seasons.

ROUND 2 POWER RANKINGS

Round 2 sees some big changes, with some teams gaining some respect while others losing their ratings credits over preseason predictions.

1. West Coast Eagles (1-1) Ladder Position: 10th
Looked completely dominant against the Giants and have now started their season. Slick, skilful, strong in the air, and still with players to come back. Almost impossible to beat in Perth and they hold 1st spot.

2. Geelong Cats (2-0) Ladder Position: 1st
Geelong are a seriously good side and one I underrated in the preseason. Their midfield is elite, and with Hawkins and Ratugolea forward they have quality marking options. Good defence and wins against good signs including a demoltion of the Demons, will also be almost impossible to beat in Geelong.

3. GWS Giants (1-1) Ladder Position: 8th
Losing to the Premiers away on the rebound. Don't lose too much credit for that. With some star players set to return they are still one of the teams to beat.

4. Collingwood Magpies (1-1) Ladder Position: 7th
Well this sucks. They dismantled us, and they look. Elite midfield + ruck division, Cox only needs to provide a contest and there is quality smalls and some matchwinners around him like De Goey. Defence remains the issue, and this week against West Coast will reveal a lot. They could rise with a win.

5. Richmond Tigers (1-1) Ladder Position: 13th
We cling on because it's only 2 games in, but we are dropping and likely to drop further after this week. Injuries/suspensions to stars have cruelled us, and it doesn't look like getting better this week with an extremely hard road trip against the Giants. Ball use and lack of pressure was horrible against the Pies.

6. Brisbane Lions (2-0) Ladder Position: 2nd
Rising with a bullet. Young with a ton of upside, they could make the 8 this year and two impressive wins to start the season.

7. Adelaide Crows (1-1) Ladder Position: 12th
Maybe a little high, but rated them preseason and they got back on track with a good win on the road. They're middle of the pack, but stay here due to preseason rankings.

8. Port Adelaide (2-0) Ladder Position: 3rd
Could have them much higher, except they didn't beat the Blues by much and were it not for some in-game injuries to Curnow, they may have been knocked off at home.

9. Bulldogs (2-0) Ladder Position: 4th
Another that could be higher after 2 wins, however I am not convinced the sides they beat are any good. Another one that needs to be watched more, but more wins will have them rise. Expected to beat Gold Coast which won't necessarily earn them too many credits.

10. Melbourne Demons (0-2) Ladder Position: 18th
Last on the ladder but prepared to give them one more chance. Have looked awful so far, but the talent is there. Crunch game against the Bombers who look just as desperate. Lose that and they are in real trouble.

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-1) Ladder Position: 9th
Impressed last week, disappointed in this. They hold spot because they copped some in game injuries and some dodgy free kicks and key moments went against them. Mid table side.

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-1) Ladder Position: 6th
Don't rate Gold Coast, and had of the Suns kicked better Freo wouldn't have been close. It might be a long road trip, but still expected to beat what will be an eventual bottom 4 side.

13. St Kilda Saints (2-0) Ladder Position: 5th
2 wins, but they won't win many more. Have been blessed with the draw to start the season but expect them to start dropping to their expected bottom 3 position. Freo away this week is a tough challenge, will earn real credit if they get up.

14. Sydney Swans (0-2) Ladder Position: 14th
Clinging on and could be lower, but they lost to a decent side this week. Expect they might drop in coming weeks, but the chance to get on track against Carlton.

15. Gold Coast Suns (1-1) Ladder Position: 11th
Good win, and should have won by more. This sees them rise, previously had them bottom 2. Will struggle against the Doggies.

16. Carlton Blues (1-1) Ladder Position: 15th
Liked the fight they have shown so far. Bit of bad luck against the Power. They aren't good, but aren't the worst either.

17. North Melbourne (0-2) Ladder Position: 16th
Smashed in round 1, beaten at home in round 2. Not much to get excited about.

18. Essendon Bombers (0-2) Ladder Position: 17th
They have lost all their preseason hype credits. Have never seen such a weak first quarter like they put in against the Saints. They should be embarrassed. Season on the line against the Demons already in round 3. Another meek performance will have them entrenched at the bottom.
 
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I like power rankings....

But can't have Essendon above Hawthorn, Adelaide, Port and it would only be 50/50 with Freo

Adelaide - Have better talent, massive home ground advantage, softer draw and proven can win
Port - Were 11-6 and in the top 4 until implosion last year, got rid of selfish players and kids look good and they still get Dixon back to go with home ground advantage
Hawthorn - Prob soft top 4 last year, so have a harder draw, but even talent wise but with a much better coach

If you allow for last years form for other, Ports and Hawthorn put them above Essendon to go along with Rd 1 performances
 

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Good rankings!

Personally I put the Giants as #1 right now. They have the best combination of last year's results (semi-final; only lost away to COL by 10pts) and Round 1 (72pt demolition of highly fancied top-8 team).

I agree that West Coast's loss wasn't a shock, but the magnitude of it was... 44pts is a fair hiding. So I have to put the Eagles behind GWS.

I'm willing to push both Port and Hawthorn above Adelaide & Essendon after R1, too, even though that may well turn out to be an overreaction.

Tigers a bit of an unknown now.
 
ROUND 2 POWER RANKINGS

Round 2 sees some big changes, with some teams gaining some respect while others losing their ratings credits over preseason predictions.

1. West Coast Eagles (1-1) Ladder Position: 10th
Looked completely dominant against the Giants and have now started their season. Slick, skilful, strong in the air, and still with players to come back. Almost impossible to beat in Perth and they hold 1st spot.

2. Geelong Cats (2-0) Ladder Position: 1st
Geelong are a seriously good side and one I underrated in the preseason. Their midfield is elite, and with Hawkins and Ratugolea forward they have quality marking options. Good defence and wins against good signs including a demoltion of the Demons, will also be almost impossible to beat in Geelong.

3. GWS Giants (1-1) Ladder Position: 8th
Losing to the Premiers away on the rebound. Don't lose too much credit for that. With some star players set to return they are still one of the teams to beat.

4. Collingwood Magpies (1-1) Ladder Position: 7th
Well this sucks. They dismantled us, and they look. Elite midfield + ruck division, Cox only needs to provide a contest and there is quality smalls and some matchwinners around him like De Goey. Defence remains the issue, and this week against West Coast will reveal a lot. They could rise with a win.

5. Richmond Tigers (1-1) Ladder Position: 13th
We cling on because it's only 2 games in, but we are dropping and likely to drop further after this week. Injuries/suspensions to stars have cruelled us, and it doesn't look like getting better this week with an extremely hard road trip against the Giants. Ball use and lack of pressure was horrible against the Pies.

6. Brisbane Lions (2-0) Ladder Position: 2nd
Rising with a bullet. Young with a ton of upside, they could make the 8 this year and two impressive wins to start the season.

7. Adelaide Crows (1-1) Ladder Position: 12th
Maybe a little high, but rated them preseason and they got back on track with a good win on the road. They're middle of the pack, but stay here due to preseason rankings.

8. Port Adelaide (2-0) Ladder Position: 3rd
Could have them much higher, except they didn't beat the Blues by much and were it not for some in-game injuries to Curnow, they may have been knocked off at home.

9. Bulldogs (2-0) Ladder Position: 4th
Another that could be higher after 2 wins, however I am not convinced the sides they beat are any good. Another one that needs to be watched more, but more wins will have them rise. Expected to beat Gold Coast which won't necessarily earn them too many credits.

10. Melbourne Demons (0-2) Ladder Position: 18th
Last on the ladder but prepared to give them one more chance. Have looked awful so far, but the talent is there. Crunch game against the Bombers who look just as desperate. Lose that and they are in real trouble.

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-1) Ladder Position: 9th
Impressed last week, disappointed in this. They hold spot because they copped some in game injuries and some dodgy free kicks and key moments went against them. Mid table side.

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-1) Ladder Position: 6th
Don't rate Gold Coast, and had of the Suns kicked better Freo wouldn't have been close. It might be a long road trip, but still expected to beat what will be an eventual bottom 4 side.

13. St Kilda Saints (2-0) Ladder Position: 5th
2 wins, but they won't win many more. Have been blessed with the draw to start the season but expect them to start dropping to their expected bottom 3 position. Freo away this week is a tough challenge, will earn real credit if they get up.

14. Sydney Swans (0-2) Ladder Position: 14th
Clinging on and could be lower, but they lost to a decent side this week. Expect they might drop in coming weeks, but the chance to get on track against Carlton.

15. Gold Coast Suns (1-1) Ladder Position: 11th
Good win, and should have won by more. This sees them rise, previously had them bottom 2. Will struggle against the Doggies.

16. Carlton Blues (1-1) Ladder Position: 15th
Liked the fight they have shown so far. Bit of bad luck against the Power. They aren't good, but aren't the worst either.

17. North Melbourne (0-2) Ladder Position: 16th
Smashed in round 1, beaten at home in round 2. Not much to get excited about.

18. Essendon Bombers (0-2) Ladder Position: 17th
They have lost all their preseason hype credits. Have never seen such a weak first quarter like they put in against the Saints. They should be embarrassed. Season on the line against the Demons already in round 3. Another meek performance will have them entrenched at the bottom.
 
Round 3:

1. West Coast Eagles

2. Geelong Cats

3. GWS Giants

4. Collingwood Magpies

5. Brisbane Lions

6. Port Adelaide

7. Hawthorn

8. Richmond

9. Gold Coast

10. Bulldogs

11. Fremantle

12. Adelaide

13. St Kilda

14. Sydney Swans

15. Essendon

16. Melbourne

17. Carlton

18. North Melbourne
 

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