List Mgmt. Welcome Harley Reid (Pick 1, 2023 National Draft)

[HoneyBadger35]

Recap at a glance:

• Harley Reid has signed a two-year extension, which keeps him at West Coast until at least the end of 2028.
• He still has one season left on his rookie deal, the new extension kicks in for 2027.
• Cal Twomey reports that the deal could reach up to $2m per year if Harley triggers all incentives (e.g. this is not a base $2m per year deal).
• This is a straight two year extension, with no player option for a +9 or anything similar.
• Get a big dog up ya, Victoria.
  
  
  
  

 

[KERRPOW]

If we could cancel kellys 2 year extention and give harley a 6mill 2 year extention... I would

 

[rebel23]

The only issue is it's not just a two year extension. What if he gets repeated injuries during the next three years? As I understand it the nine years is a player option, we don't have an out if things go wrong in-between.

Agree...

West coast need either a longer term extension followed by player option

Or... Forget the player option...and either accept the two year deal

Or... Trade him

 

[Scotland]

I get Buckley's perspective. He's saying are we sure - when we need quality in so many areas - that we want to spend to $2m+ on a high potential, but ultimately unproven player? That's a valid question the club would be considering.

That is different from if Hawthorn or Geelong choose to spend the same amount on HR. They have the pieces in place and you could argue that makes the difference between a dynasty and not.

Now - hold on - I am not saying I agree with him. I think his comments are ill-informed rather than deliberately trying to sabotage West Coast (like all Vic media they don't care about West Coast enough to spend any time thinking about them).

What Bucks isn't considering is the well documented cap space optionality we have; the devaluation of the draft in coming years, so we can't just build that way; the difficulty of attracting and keeping non-WA players in Perth; that HR staying can be a catalyst for others coming/staying; and the fixture inequalities.

On the balance, I believe, we should negotiate hard in an unrushed manner but do enough to get him to sign an extended deal this year.

What are we going to spend it on though? We're not getting Chad Warner this year and $2m isn't going to turn into four $500k players. We're so shit that we will pretty much only be rebuilding via the draft this year, because who is putting their hand up to join WC for 2026? Assuming we just use two firsts and two seconds, that's about $600k of total salary next year.

The smart play is to pay Harley Reid overs now so we aren't paying him overs down the track. $2m a year for two years is nonsense because we're just paying him to at best reach the start of his prime and then he can just leave anyway. If I am WC I am not offering $2m a year in 2026 unless it is part of a real longer term deal.

 

[Lia]

Buckley also could be clouded by his final years at Collingwood with those Grundy and Treloar contracts.

 

[Scotland]

Gotta let him go because it's too expensive.

Straight to a Victorian club. who will pay the same and it's entirely fine, eh Bucks?

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong etc. can't afford the numbers that are being thrown around.

WC should let him go because $2m a year is too much, so he can sign for another club for a lot less. That angle has been pushed in the media for a long time. He's not worth it on performance, Vic clubs can't afford it anyway - so WC shouldn't pay it and they should get him cheap.

 

[BG__]

Instead of Harley having the option to take up the extra 9 years after the first 2, I wonder if we are countering with something like a full 11 year extension but has some opt out clauses that can be triggered after the first 2 years around the team build, team performance, wins etc. Gives us more security that he’s in for the long term as long as we hit some targets and progress.

Otherwise the 2+9 is basically just a 2 year extension that gives Harley long term security if required.

 

[Keys]

Sort of a balanced conversation here...

I’m no fan of Hird but he makes some sound points and whilst I don’t fully agree with him, it does highlight how significant this deal is and that we do need to be cautious- the ramifications if this goes pear shaped are huge. The upside is it sets up the rebuild and as that dweeb Morris pointed out, Reid could become the lightning rod that allows us to attract and/or keep other talent

Devils advocate though

Even allowing for the likelihood that -
1) The figures being thrown around will have some mayo on them (Simpson has regularly said that past contract values, like Kelly’s, have been exaggerated)
2) It includes a share of the new marketing allowance given to clubs which fits outside the salary cap - an amount which could be, and probably is, in excess of $500k

- the amounts being reported are massive

Around $2m per year for 2027/28 is in part recognition that due to the fixed nature of his 2026 contract under the CBA he’s being paid unders in 2026 - my estimate is he’ll earn about $400k so the 3 year average (2026-28) is more like $1.5m. Given the state of our salary cap whilst that is overs for a promising but still developing/maturing player it’s also affordable and won’t cost us any trade targets over that period

The catch is the 9 year option at around, or in excess of, $2m per year. Again that’s probably affordable but the risk of him being injured or not fulfilling his potential falls entirely on the club - a risk we carry until 2036

Ideally, we’d be looking to extend the initial two year down payment we’re making given that’s over his current worth to 3 years - preferably 4 in light of Donkers point on a possible 6 year FA period (although as long as restricted FA remains that’s not an issue as we’d be able to match and force a trade). We should also try to have some guardrails put on the 9 year deal to mitigate the risk in the event of long term/career ending injury

It’s the biggest list management decision in the club’s history, surpassing the decision to go all in on the Kelly trade. Other than that deal and the 2+4 year extension for Gaff we have never agreed to a contract longer than 5 years - and very few, if any, of those long contracts have worked out as hoped. With the benefit of hindsight, most of them we wouldn’t do

What are the alternatives?

If Morris is to be believed, Harley will request a trade if we don’t do the deal this year most likely to Hawthorn. At a minimum we’d be asking for 2x top 10 picks this year plus a R1 pick next year. Hawthorn already have one top 10 pick (Carlton’s) so would have to somehow find another

Means we get two other top draftees this year (but in a less talented draft than most years) which would give us 4 top 10 picks plus the Hawthorn R1 and our R2 picks.

We’d also have the cap space left behind but nobody to spend it on

Ultimately, this is a board level decision after taking advice from the football department

Personally, whilst acknowledging the inherent risk in agreeing to the proposal put forward, we should be pushing as hard as possible to swing the pendulum back our way a little but ultimately take the leap of faith

We are in a position to absorb the asking price, have the draft picks to maintain the momentum of our rebuild and the impact of Reid signing can’t be underestimated- after 4 years of trudging through the shit show that’s been our onfield results to lose the very brightest of the few shining lights we have would be a kick in the nuts

Reid can be the foundation stone of the next decade in the same way Martin was at Richmond.

SIGN THE MAN UP

 

[ziad]

I’m no fan of Hird but he makes some sound points and whilst I don’t fully agree with him, it does highlight how significant this deal is and that we do need to be cautious- the ramifications if this goes pear shaped are huge. The upside is it sets up the rebuild and as that dweeb Morris pointed out, Reid could become the lightning rod that allows us to attract and/or keep other talent

Devils advocate though

Even allowing for the likelihood that -
1) The figures being thrown around will have some mayo on them (Simpson has regularly said that past contract values, like Kelly’s, have been exaggerated)
2) It includes a share of the new marketing allowance given to clubs which fits outside the salary cap - an amount which could be, and probably is, in excess of $500k

- the amounts being reported are massive

Around $2m per year for 2027/28 is in part recognition that due to the fixed nature of his 2026 contract under the CBA he’s being paid unders in 2026 - my estimate is he’ll earn about $400k so the 3 year average (2026-28) is more like $1.5m. Given the state of our salary cap whilst that is overs for a promising but still developing/maturing player it’s also affordable and won’t cost us any trade targets over that period

The catch is the 9 year option at around, or in excess of, $2m per year. Again that’s probably affordable but the risk of him being injured or not fulfilling his potential falls entirely on the club - a risk we carry until 2036

Ideally, we’d be looking to extend the initial two year down payment we’re making given that’s over his current worth to 3 years - preferably 4 in light of Donkers point on a possible 6 year FA period (although as long as restricted FA remains that’s not an issue as we’d be able to match and force a trade). We should also try to have some guardrails put on the 9 year deal to mitigate the risk in the event of long term/career ending injury

It’s the biggest list management decision in the club’s history, surpassing the decision to go all in on the Kelly trade. Other than that deal and the 2+4 year extension for Gaff we have never agreed to a contract longer than 5 years - and very few, if any, of those long contracts have worked out as hoped. With the benefit of hindsight, most of them we wouldn’t do

What are the alternatives?

If Morris is to be believed, Harley will request a trade if we don’t do the deal this year most likely to Hawthorn. At a minimum we’d be asking for 2x top 10 picks this year plus a R1 pick next year. Hawthorn already have one top 10 pick (Carlton’s) so would have to somehow find another

Means we get two other top draftees this year (but in a less talented draft than most years) which would give us 4 top 10 picks plus the Hawthorn R1 and our R2 picks.

We’d also have the cap space left behind but nobody to spend it on

Ultimately, this is a board level decision after taking advice from the football department

Personally, whilst acknowledging the inherent risk in agreeing to the proposal put forward, we should be pushing as hard as possible to swing the pendulum back our way a little but ultimately take the leap of faith

We are in a position to absorb the asking price, have the draft picks to maintain the momentum of our rebuild and the impact of Reid signing can’t be underestimated- after 4 years of trudging through the shit show that’s been our onfield results to lose the very brightest of the few shining lights we have would be a kick in the nuts

Reid can be the foundation stone of the next decade in the same way Martin was at Richmond.

SIGN THE MAN UP

Watch the footy, no Reid no WC.

 

[bzparkes]

Watch the footy, no Reid no WC.

Yep.

If they think the financial implications of Reid's contract request are too risky then someone needs to point out to them that tanking crowd figures are going to hurt the club financially way more than Reid's contract ever will.

 

[squashface]

We are in a unique situation where the kind of money he is demanding is not really an issue and we need to spend our cap so it shouldn't even be a question whether we pay him that - he is worth it regardless.

We should just be trying to get more guaranteed years but if not then so be it. 2 + 9 player option still works and gives us 3 more years to show something as a football club and attract better talent.

 

[RanaNaved]

How many AFL players have not taken the player option if they had that arrangement?

Josh Kelly did, Gaff did, is there anyone else?

 

[ballsohard]

Under what circumstances would Reid opt in/out to the 9 year player option though?
1: Reid doesn't progress as a player/gets injured - Opts in and eagles are potentially paying massive overs for 9 years
2: Eagles don't progress - Opts out and seeks a trade
3: Eagles progress/don't progress & Reid becomes a top player - Opts out & renegotiates a bigger deal/seeks a trade

The 9 year player option is definitely a negative for the eagles, hopefully they can negotiate to get something that isn't 2 + 9.

That being said if that's the only option you do the deal anyway, and hope that after 3 years Reid is fulfilling his potential and wants to extend further.

 

[Chris_6678]

How many AFL players have not taken the player option if they had that arrangement?

Josh Kelly did, Gaff did, is there anyone else?

Yeah a lot of people forget Gaff had that same option.

 

[suntagonal]

If we can put some KPIs on the extension period then that would go a bit of the way to alleviating the risk...

E.g., make it a base of 1.5m + bonuses for games played/disposals or something.

guaranteed 1.5m for 9 years for HR. But mitigates the risk for us by a bit. Worst case scenario by 6.3m

 

[TwoStriders]

Seems like a lot of media figures are taking this 2+9 deal as an ultimatum, but this is just a counter-offer right?

It's part of the negotiation process. West Coast tabled some offers, this is the counter from Reid's management. They likely meet somewhere in the middle.

The fact that Harley's team are participating in a negotiation is a strong indication, if not an outright assurance, that he will extend with West Coast. So an incredible positive for the club.

 

[Jeremy McLovin]

Definitely need to try and bump the guaranteed extension to 3 years - two years only gives him five seasons at the club, which makes hitting 100 games nigh on impossible with even a single semi-serious injury.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Seems like a lot of media figures are taking this 2+9 deal as an ultimatum, but this is just a counter-offer right?

It's part of the negotiation process. West Coast tabled some offers, this is the counter from Reid's management. They likely meet somewhere in the middle.

The fact that Harley's team are participating in a negotiation is a strong indication, if not an outright assurance, that he will extend with West Coast. So an incredible positive for the club.

They were always going to put a negative spin on it no matter what

I agree completely with your last 2 paragraphs in particular

 

[element]

I'd imagine the 2+9 is the counter and the club now has a chance to counter again. Somewhere inbetween like a 3+7, 4+6 maybe?

Unsure how the other similarly structured deals are set out, but there would have to be some sort of performance or games per year clause for the +9 portion?
If there isn't, then the club would be resigning itself to a decade of being at the bottom if somehow the triggered extra years come in and he goes down the Jamarra path and can't play.
Surely. Surely?

 

[new breed]

Huge offer , what would an opposing club offer in a trade ....bugger all with Hawks and Geelong .
The $$$$ mentioned might be inflated though , how would journalists find out such financial numbers before Harley even signs on , hopefully with WC

 

[Neale4brownlow]

We'll have to offer overs to retain him and not simply match what the Hawks/Dons are prepared to offer him.

Front end the hell out of it while we're looking for ways to spend money right now. By the end of the 9-10year deal he probably won't even be in the top 10% paid in the AFL.

If he asks for a trade 3 years into a 9 year deal because he's already been paid $10M of his $20M what do we care? Just hold him to the contract at that point.

Harley would surely prefer money now rather than money later. Buy a nice place in Cottesloe and hit the surf lad.

Mad to let him go for fear of the worst-case scenarios. You have to take the plunge on someone at some point or forever be the on the bottom. When was the last time a player with promise didn't amount to anything at all and retire early? Tom Boyd? Jack Watts?

They can put clauses in there to protect against early retirement.

 

[tigger_ferret]

The more I think about it the more I’m all in on Harley.

Sure a few KPI triggers in the 9 years would be nice, to cover in case he becomes perma injured.

However talk about him being an unproven player, doesn’t hold up for me, especially after his game on Saturday night.

I would honestly think Harley at his current level (which I fully expect to improve further) is better than peak 2018 Yeo when he was making Dusty his bitch. Imagine how good he would have been with Nic Nat tapping it down his throat and guys like Redden blocking for him, then putting it in front of JK on the lead

 

[DJMac]

Interesting that Geelong were used as the example how list management should be done and not paying overs for players. Not on the books anyway. Let’s all pretend that Geelong are not getting players paid in other ways.

 

[Bender_]

Interesting that Geelong were used as the example how list management should be done and not paying overs for players. Not on the books anyway. Let’s all pretend that Geelong are not getting players paid in other ways.

They're just getting paid modest amounts by the footy club whilst also somehow landing positions on company boards despite having zero business experience. It's all legit.

 

[DorothyG]

I look at it this way,

Is he in isolation worth $2mill a year? Probably not, not yet anyway.

Is he worth $2mill a year to us right now, at the stage and list build we currently have? Absolutely 100% yes and probably more.

 

[flyinghi64]

Let's go back to the draft year when we were getting some very good offers for our No1 pick as everyone wanted Harley.
We held firm and said no we would rather take Harley than have 2 top 10 picks and possibly more.
We stuck to our guns and picked Harley.
I am sure Harley was aware at the time we were at the start of a rebuild and he wouldn't be playing for a winning team for the near future.
I am also pretty sure the club wouldn't have committed to him if they were unsure of him committing at least short term. They would have had many conversations leading up to the draft and you would think the feeling and general outlook from those would have been, he seems to have a pretty determined and loyal character.
Also they would have been aware that to keep him past the initial contract it was going to cost big as the Vic clubs would be coming hard at him.
What we are seeing playing out now as he comes into his last year of his contract was all a foregone conclusion before we drafted him and the only thing that has probably changed is the club hasn't performed as well as probably expected.
The Eagles are pretty good at keeping the internal running of the club indoors and not letting a lot out and when you do hear anyone from the club talk about Harley and him staying they always sound a little coy.
I would be like 99% positive now that he will sign another contract and show loyalty at least for an extra 2-3 years with a min guarantee $ wise and length wise for an extension.
Might have to update my avatar as well.