List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part V

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 5

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[L_W_P]

Ok. So what were we actually up to in the 2nd part of the trade period?

We went deathly quiet after the Leek Aleer debacle. Reckon we had something on the go that must have fallen through.

Trading the captain for a future 3rd in the Tassie draft also doesn’t sit well with me. Do we have cap issues?

Anyone know what the plan was?

Moving Steele helps with the cap but we don't have issues.

He was going to be moved down the depth chart, likely to that 22-28 ranked player. Why pay 800k+ for a depth option?

We were clear with him that this was a possibility and encouraged him to explore his options.

It's no different than Hodge/Birchall going to Brisbane, Mitchell to West Coast, Lewis to Melbourne, Chapman and Goldstein to Essendon, Steven King coming to the Saints...

The media just love framing us as incompetent.

If we kept Jack and he was playing VFL the narrative would have been about how we had "close to $1 million being wasted in the VFL" and that we "had opportunities to move him on" but that we "were too difficult to deal with on the last day" or some BS.

 

[L_W_P]

Hilarious in hindsight. Shot themselves in the foot really.

I wonder if Roma tries to get there again next year.

Will depend on how both teams perform. Every chance we are both fighting for that 5-8 spot with the Saints rising and Cats falling.

In 12 months time we could be the more attractive prospect...

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I think we are paying a small part of Steeles 900k. Even if it is 200k thats 1.4 million over two years saved on a player the coach doesn't think will be a first 23. Dont think we have a SC problem. We had 6 mill to spend, didn't spend it all, and none of our contracts have TPP built in to them so whatever it goes up by, we get to spend

Despite what spin the Saints put on it, they cut Aleer for three reasons

1. We got SOS
2 the extra cost of NWM, Wilkie and Windhager was not really budgeted for especially NAZ's huge salary.
2. We did all our trades early with the expectation that Geelong would trade honestly, we may even had taken the 7.27 pm Geelong deal if it was the Friday before so we could execute another deal, but Mackie being the big man player he thinks he is, gave us absolutely no time to try and get the other deal (whatever it was) done.

I think something changed with Roma. Whether it was purely RTB changing his mind/putting the foot down or something else. Maybe it was from recently watching Moneyball - with confirmation around the new rules coming late, maybe the quant that we have had in there for a few years put together research on the TDK/Roma double?

I felt like it was likely Roma left, until something changed by very early in the trade period. But that’s just vibe and no intel. Perhaps that’s precipitated the Aleer call, driven perhaps by maybe partly cap, maybe list spots, maybe picks? I still get the sense that they would have taken Aleer, but they were increasingly borderline (his form, JSOS, etc), maybe a complete shutdown decision on Roma drove it or perhaps a combo with wanting to get Aleer for a nothing pick.

 

[Nutsngum]

I think something changed with Roma. Whether it was purely RTB changing his mind/putting the foot down or something else. Maybe it was from recently watching Moneyball - with confirmation around the new rules coming late, maybe the quant that we have had in there for a few years put together research on the TDK/Roma double?

I felt like it was likely Roma left, until something changed by very early in the trade period. But that’s just vibe and no intel. Perhaps that’s precipitated the Aleer call, driven perhaps by maybe partly cap, maybe list spots, maybe picks? I still get the sense that they would have taken Aleer, but they were increasingly borderline (his form, JSOS, etc), maybe a complete shutdown decision on Roma drove it or perhaps a combo with wanting to get Aleer for a nothing pick.

Marshall doesnt dislike StKilda, from his perspective he would like to live in the country that way near his family and brother from all reports and Geelong would be offering him a guaranteed 4 years almost certianly to get him over.

Even if we are, or have, paid him extremely well for the next two years he will be earning limbo after that with no guarantee he will be best 23 at that point which is totally fair.

If Geelong came knocking and said "We guarantee you 700k a year for 32 and 33 years of age" you absolutely have to try and take that as the option might be de-listment and a base wage or even forced retirement.

It was simple from our perspective, Geelong have to offer big overs to get us to move you other wise you're staying. Marshall would have been aware of this and fully aware that Geelong weren’t serious in committing to actually get him over the line by the 2nd week of the trade period.

So i dunno if anything really changed, I just feel like he was realistic about what was going to happen and as a professional was happy to deal with that happening.

 

[True Believer]

Ok. So what were we actually up to in the 2nd part of the trade period?

We went deathly quiet after the Leek Aleer debacle. Reckon we had something on the go that must have fallen through.

Trading the captain for a future 3rd in the Tassie draft also doesn’t sit well with me. Do we have cap issues?

Anyone know what the plan was?

It reminded a little of the film Moneyball. The manager kept playing a bloke ahead of the player that Billy Beane had brought in and wanted him to play in that role, so Billy ended up trading out the player that the manager kept playing! I don't think RTB wanted Steele as captain, but the players kept voting him in as captain, so maybe RTB had him traded out!

Edit, just noted completely randomly that someone else also referenced the movie Moneyball in relation to a different player!

 

[saintmike65]

Ok. So what were we actually up to in the 2nd part of the trade period?

We went deathly quiet after the Leek Aleer debacle. Reckon we had something on the go that must have fallen through.

Trading the captain for a future 3rd in the Tassie draft also doesn’t sit well with me. Do we have cap issues?

Anyone know what the plan was?

The club realised Steele has declined and probably didn't want to have Boxshall's progress halted.
They no doubt didn't want to pay a big salary to Jack so did a deal with Melbourne that looked after Steely with an extra year's contract

 

[PoppedCorn]

Fmd

I watched moneyball again two nights ago

 

[SainterinSydney]

Fmd

I watched moneyball again two nights ago

The only thing with Moneyball--they still didn't win the championship

 

[True Believer]

The only thing with Moneyball--they still didn't win the championship

No, but they got pretty close at a fraction of the cost of their competitors. I think the greater science in selecting players in at the draft and list management in general is partly a result of the influence Moneyball.

 

[kosifantutti]

Hilarious in hindsight. Shot themselves in the foot really.

I wonder if Roma tries to get there again next year.

Why leave a Premiership team for one that didn’t make finals?

 

[L_W_P]

No, but they got pretty close at a fraction of the cost of their competitors. I think the greater science in selecting players in at the draft and list management in general is partly a result of the influence Moneyball.

And then all the rich teams worked it out and blew them out of the comp

Weve got 90% of the way there. Now we just need some NGA/FS luck and away we go.

 

[Diehard Saint]

And then all the rich teams worked it out and blew them out of the comp

Weve got 90% of the way there. Now we just need some NGA/FS luck and away we go.

Injury is going to be the biggest part of whether we are successful or not next season.
We have to pray for a relatively clean bill of health - a complete turn around from our last couple of seasons.

 

[Teflon]

We should grab him. Binns is very good.

He cabt kick
Racks it up turns it over

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Marshall doesnt dislike StKilda, from his perspective he would like to live in the country that way near his family and brother from all reports and Geelong would be offering him a guaranteed 4 years almost certianly to get him over.

Even if we are, or have, paid him extremely well for the next two years he will be earning limbo after that with no guarantee he will be best 23 at that point which is totally fair.

If Geelong came knocking and said "We guarantee you 700k a year for 32 and 33 years of age" you absolutely have to try and take that as the option might be de-listment and a base wage or even forced retirement.

It was simple from our perspective, Geelong have to offer big overs to get us to move you other wise you're staying. Marshall would have been aware of this and fully aware that Geelong weren’t serious in committing to actually get him over the line by the 2nd week of the trade period.

So i dunno if anything really changed, I just feel like he was realistic about what was going to happen and as a professional was happy to deal with that happening.

Changed from St Kilda’s perspective, I mean. He’s contracted, so makes little difference if he wanted out. But this is just my own perception.

 

[tassiesaint2024]

Still find it pretty strange that Geelong didn’t pony up. A future 1st and 2nd would have probably got it done early and filled what is arguably the biggest hole on their list.

Trade period is one of the great anomalies. Clubs haggle over picks and refuse to offer up enough, yet when it comes to draft night, they trade picks like they are confetti. Wanna move up a couple of spots? Here’s a future second rounder. Like that player at pick 20? Here’s our future first.

Love the way we went about it. Flanders - pick 7 and done. Ryan F2 (and change back) done.

 

[L_W_P]

Still find it pretty strange that Geelong didn’t pony up. A future 1st and 2nd would have probably got it done early and filled what is arguably the biggest hole on their list.

Trade period is one of the great anomalies. Clubs haggle over picks and refuse to offer up enough, yet when it comes to draft night, they trade picks like they are confetti. Wanna move up a couple of spots? Here’s a future second rounder. Like that player at pick 20? Here’s our future first.

Love the way we went about it. Flanders - pick 7 and done. Ryan F2 (and change back) done.

Clubs hesitate beforehand because it's all unknown. On draft night you can move with far more certainty.

The 3 guys you wanted at pick 12 all gone? You feel better trading out.

That one kid you love still available at pick 16? You feel better paying overs to make sure you get him.

 

[phantom13]

And then all the rich teams worked it out and blew them out of the comp

Weve got 90% of the way there. Now we just need some NGA/FS luck and away we go.

The current world series is being played between the Blue Jays and the Dodgers, its estimated the TPP of the two clubs is about double the difference.

The starting lineups for game 1 were roughly $200m (dodgers) and $100m (blue jays).

 

[ScrappyDo]

Trade period is one of the great anomalies. Clubs haggle over picks and refuse to offer up enough, yet when it comes to draft night, they trade picks like they are confetti. Wanna move up a couple of spots? Here’s a future second rounder. Like that player at pick 20? Here’s our future first.

Interesting observation, and so very true.
Could it be egos at play?

 

[The Punter]

I'm 20 pages behind, so apologies if someone has already made this point, but here is the equivalent for 2024:

211 (Ross)
179 (Membrey)
161 (Crouch)
123 (Battle)
112 (Bonner)
71 (Paton)
58 (Campbell)
8 (Hayes)

The ins were Macrae (249) and Carroll (21). The net loss of games was 653. I assume the net loss in 2025 is lower.

My point on this year was they were all older players who were past their best or younger types who weren't going to make it. No one in that 50-150 game range. In 2024 you had Battle (who we wanted to keep) but also Bonner and Paton who were mid 20s and had played a bit. No one like that this year, which makes one believe that the guys in that 50-100 game range at the club are going to make it largely (those players are Caminiti, Henry, Sharman, Owens, Windhager, Byrnes, Dow, King, Stocker and Nas).

 

[sammm]

Just as a little side story will be interested to see how the Blues go next season in the last year of Vossy's contract. Yes I'll be deathriding!

My prediction is they'll finish lower next year than they did this year.

View attachment 2464051

nah, it will be good if they rise a little bit. then they will re-sign Voss for a nother 2 years

 

[gringo2011]

Interesting observation, and so very true.
Could it be egos at play?

With Geelong I think there is a genuine worry that if they go all in again and a few older guys tip over they could fall down a bit and need a harder rebuild. If they trade out too much future capital they could get really stuck in the mud.

Marshall makes sense for them but if they have any kind of drop off they could start to look thin very quickly. Danger and Cameron are well over 30 and Blicavs, Stewart etc aren't far behind them. A good portion of their best players are getting long in the tooth.

 

[sauce_head]

Marshall doesnt dislike StKilda, from his perspective he would like to live in the country that way near his family and brother from all reports and Geelong would be offering him a guaranteed 4 years almost certianly to get him over.

Even if we are, or have, paid him extremely well for the next two years he will be earning limbo after that with no guarantee he will be best 23 at that point which is totally fair.

If Geelong came knocking and said "We guarantee you 700k a year for 32 and 33 years of age" you absolutely have to try and take that as the option might be de-listment and a base wage or even forced retirement.

It was simple from our perspective, Geelong have to offer big overs to get us to move you other wise you're staying. Marshall would have been aware of this and fully aware that Geelong weren’t serious in committing to actually get him over the line by the 2nd week of the trade period.

So i dunno if anything really changed, I just feel like he was realistic about what was going to happen and as a professional was happy to deal with that happening.

And apparently it was similar the trade period before this one. This one just a little more noisy and more firm (but ultimately flimsy) commitment from Geelong.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

He cabt kick
Racks it up turns it over

That was the same word I got from a number of Blues' mates over the weekend.

For a club crying out for outside run & class, Binns is one of the picks that has really let them down.

 

[sauce_head]

It reminded a little of the film Moneyball. The manager kept playing a bloke ahead of the player that Billy Beane had brought in and wanted him to play in that role, so Billy ended up trading out the player that the manager kept playing! I don't think RTB wanted Steele as captain, but the players kept voting him in as captain, so maybe RTB had him traded out!

Edit, just noted completely randomly that someone else also referenced the movie Moneyball in relation to a different player!

Nice take, except Steele had already relinquished the captaincy before he was traded out. He may have gone better for us without that burden, but we will now never know. I’m okay with it overall.

 

[True Believer]

With Geelong I think there is a genuine worry that if they go all in again and a few older guys tip over they could fall down a bit and need a harder rebuild. If they trade out too much future capital they could get really stuck in the mud.

Marshall makes sense for them but if they have any kind of drop off they could start to look thin very quickly. Danger and Cameron are well over 30 and Blicavs, Stewart etc aren't far behind them. A good portion of their best players are getting long in the tooth.

There's a lot of sense in this post (shocking, I know!) that gets ignored when sweeping statements are made about list age profiles by the media. It's not so much how many of your players are old, it's how many of your KEY players are old!

The AFL media go on about Geelong's list, but the fact is that they were able to build a flag winning list off the back of a lot of father son gifts, mixed with some very good local district recruiting, and then have had their really good players hang on long enough to be able to land some reinforcements via superstars wanting to move back home and the odd "lifestyle" free agent gun.

But the pool of elite talent is starting to diminish. That elite talent has been what makes the rest of their GOP pool of players look better than they really are. The credit they deserve is for understanding and executing a plan to make the most of that mid 2000's list gift of a bunch of FS's under the old system, and then stretching that for nearly another decade past the playing careers of those original FS's......