AFL 2026 - AFL ROUND 7

[balmainforever]

 

[Cuzz09]

3 Sunday games to be closer than expected

WCE line
Crows line
NM line

$6.85

*wishful thinking lol

 

[Rank]

Suns and Crows multi @8.57 bet365 ok value.

 

[the_big_sav]

Hogan and cadman due back in, could wait for the teams then do north line?

 

[Alt-F4]

Suns and Crows multi @8.57 bet365 ok value.

Gold Coast almost lost to Essendon, are playing in Tassie against Hawks and they are atrocious away, parlayed with the Crows against the Lions in Brisbane coming off a close loss. I could somewhat see the logic in taking the + points but H2H...

I'm surprised you haven't been banned from all sportsbooks from taking them to the cleaners with such sharp angles!

 

[Fizza]

Gold Coast almost lost to Essendon, are playing in Tassie against Hawks and they are atrocious away, parlayed with the Crows against the Lions in Brisbane coming off a close loss. I could somewhat see the logic in taking the + points but H2H...

I'm surprised you haven't been banned from all sportsbooks from taking them to the cleaners with such sharp angles!

Spot on

 

[Shueygod]

Gold Coast almost lost to Essendon, are playing in Tassie against Hawks and they are atrocious away, parlayed with the Crows against the Lions in Brisbane coming off a close loss. I could somewhat see the logic in taking the + points but H2H...

I'm surprised you haven't been banned from all sportsbooks from taking them to the cleaners with such sharp angles!

I think both are overs as well. Better than a 11.7% chance of happening imo.

 

[Jugada]

Gold Coast almost lost to Essendon, are playing in Tassie against Hawks and they are atrocious away, parlayed with the Crows against the Lions in Brisbane coming off a close loss. I could somewhat see the logic in taking the + points but H2H...

I'm surprised you haven't been banned from all sportsbooks from taking them to the cleaners with such sharp angles!

Imagine using logic like this and then having a dig at someone else's punting takes

 

[Alt-F4]

I think both are overs as well. Better than a 11.7% chance of happening imo.

I only bet goals and disposals.

I have coded my own probability, odds comparison and +ev tool for goal scorers with a conservative Poisson distribution model that can either be set as default, for your own probability or blended between the two. I'd try and explain the math and logic behind it, but is probs a bit beyond most bigfooty punting board posters intellectual capability.

I call it the Clugulator. If anyone wants access, don't even bother to PM me unless you have a 6 figure bankroll and/or Tess Crosley's phone number.

 

[Shueygod]

Imagine using logic like this and then having a dig at someone else's punting takes

As if the lines and win markets aren’t directly correlated

Proceeds to go on a rant about his intellectually superiority.

Incredible he doesn’t understand EV considering it’s in his model.

 

[Alt-F4]

As if the lines and win markets aren’t directly correlated

Proceeds to go on a rant about his intellectually superiority.

Incredible he doesn’t understand EV considering it’s in his model.

There's a difference between taking underdogs with a handicap over H2H.

If you think GC H2H against the Hawks in Tassie represents +EV in anyway shape or form.

 

[Shueygod]

There's a difference between taking underdogs with a handicap over H2H.

If you think GC H2H against the Hawks in Tassie represents +EV in anyway shape or form.

View attachment 2588707

The EV between the two markets is directly correlated.

To say you can see the logic in one but not the other is outright incorrect from a statistical standpoint.

Would’ve thought some one of your “intellect” could understand that concept.

 

[Alt-F4]

The EV between the two markets is directly correlated.

To say you can see the logic in one but no the other is outright incorrect from a statistical standpoint.

Would’ve thought some one of your “intellect” could understand that concept.

"If" you think the underdog is going to win, there is some logic in taking the points over the H2H market, given how volatile lines/totals are and no key numbers in AFL they are still markets for mugs - long term losers either way, especially GC in Tassie against the Hawks at 2.30ish before the teams have even been released. If you seriously see that as a +EV angle you are more cooked than Elijah Hollands and Ben Cousins combined.

I do indeed struggle to understand the poor reasoning from uneducated midwits who make dumb bets, but you do you champ.

 

[Shueygod]

"If" you think the underdog is going to win, there is some logic in taking the points over the H2H market.

Where’s the logic? Try explain it, given the two bets are directly correlated. Both bets are the same from an EV perspective (whether you think that’s positive or negative), you said you could see the logic in one and not the other, it’s nonsensical.

It’s funny that you trashed the line/totals markets due to being volatile (which I don’t necessarily disagree with), yet you’re so confident that Gc at 2.30 is negative EV. Directly contradicting yourself.

You are nowhere near as smart as you think you are.

Rest of the post is irrelevant.

 

[Alt-F4]

Where’s the logic? Try explain it, given the two bets are directly correlated. Both bets are the same from an EV perspective (whether you think that’s positive or negative), you said you could see the logic in one and not the other, it’s nonsensical.

It’s funny that you trashed the line/totals markets due to being volatile (which I don’t necessarily disagree with), yet you’re so confident that Gc at 2.30 is negative EV. Directly contradicting yourself.

You are nowhere near as smart as you think you are.

Rest of the post is irrelevant.

No, the +EV is not “the same” just because one market is 2.30 H2H and 1.90 on a line. They can both be +EV, but the actual edge size depends on the true win probability for each bet, not just the posted odds.

GC would have to win 5/5 for it to be 15% +ev, they have to cover the spread 55% +4.5% EV.

Put the fries in the bag kid.

 

[Shueygod]

No, the +EV is not “the same” just because one market is 2.30 H2H and 1.90 on a line. They can both be +EV, but the actual edge size depends on the true win probability for each bet, not just the posted odds.

The lines are based on the win market, the EV of both bets are directly correlated. To think otherwise is downright stupid.

GC would have to win 5/5 for it to be 15% +ev, they have to cover the spread 55% +4.5% EV.

I assume you meant to write 5/10.

I’ll try and really dumb it down for you since you appear to be struggling.

You’ve essentially said “I don’t see Kozzie getting 28 disposals @2.37, but I could see the logic in betting on him to get 25 @1.57”.

Either you’ve found some kind of edge, and there’s logic in both, or you haven’t and there’s logic in neither. The markets are directly correlated.

Next time instead of talking down to people like some pompous campaigner, make sure you actually know what you’re talking about.

 

[Jugada]

What a mess lol.

Doesn't understand how expected value works and says totals/lines are too volatile whilst betting on disposals/goals

 

[Alt-F4]

The lines are based on the win market, the EV of both bets are directly correlated. To think otherwise is downright stupid.

You need to get off the lines bro. You're that fried you only have what, 3 sleeps till Chrissy?

The edge on the line is always the same at 1.90, the h2h market odds vary, obviously it's different, unless your estimates for both markets end up with the same +ev percentage. Yes I meant 5/10 or you need to give it a 50% of winning, having a x goal head start to cover a spread is different. Your analogy with disposals is irrelevant. Completely different. Between a few disposals and covering a line.

To dumb it down for you, I can see GC winning maybe 20%, 2.30 is not +EV, I could see them covering the line as dogs with a few goal headstart maybe 50-60% since the bookies are usually pretty sharp on lines. It's still a conflip that I wouldn't bet on. Especially in Tassie and you think it's underpriced. You must be more neurodivergent than rainman.





Go code a probability tool that works before you try and educate anyone. The only thing that is correlated, big word for you, is your intellect and teams recent success. Nothing to be proud of.

 

[Rank]

You need to get off the lines bro. You're that fried you only have what, 3 sleeps till Chrissy?

The edge on the line is always the same at 1.90, the h2h market odds vary, obviously it's different, unless your estimates for both markets end up with the same +ev percentage. Yes I meant 5/10 or you need to give it a 50% of winning, having a x goal head start to cover a spread is different. Your analogy with disposals is irrelevant. Completely different. Between a few disposals and covering a line.

To dumb it down for you, I can see GC winning maybe 20%, 2.30 is not +EV, I could see them covering the line as dogs with a few goal headstart maybe 50-60% since the bookies are usually pretty sharp on lines. It's still a conflip that I wouldn't bet on. Especially in Tassie and you think it's underpriced. You must be more neurodivergent than rainman.


View attachment 2588912


Go code a probability tool that works before you try and educate anyone. The only thing that is correlated, big word for you, is your intellect and teams recent success. Nothing to be proud of.

Your the one on the glass barby campaigner, have a sleep

 

[Rank]

Gold Coast almost lost to Essendon, are playing in Tassie against Hawks and they are atrocious away, parlayed with the Crows against the Lions in Brisbane coming off a close loss. I could somewhat see the logic in taking the + points but H2H...

I'm surprised you haven't been banned from all sportsbooks from taking them to the cleaners with such sharp angles!

Classy campaigner aren't ya, didn't Essendon beat Melbourne a couple of weeks ago, Brisbane couldn't beat Melbourne and on top of that probably lose Berry, Answorth and Reville to injury.

Hawthorn lose Sicily and Moore through suspension, but probably get Gunston back.

I still say the 8.57 Bet365 is ok value considering it's better than what other bookies are offering.

Of course you can get on with a clever rant how good you are if it don't get up.

Ya tosser

 

[based]

Poisson distribution model

2010 called

 

[Veer Right]

Strategy is to keep doubling up till i win five figures. Playing it as safe as i can. If i am out week 1, then lol, next week will be the new week 1

Week 1

Swans +12.5
Melb H2H
ESS +48.5
Saints H2H
Crows +31.5

50 @ 2.64 for a 132.18 collect.

 

[Shueygod]

You need to get off the lines bro. You're that fried you only have what, 3 sleeps till Chrissy?

The edge on the line is always the same at 1.90, the h2h market odds vary, obviously it's different, unless your estimates for both markets end up with the same +ev percentage. Yes I meant 5/10 or you need to give it a 50% of winning, having a x goal head start to cover a spread is different. Your analogy with disposals is irrelevant. Completely different. Between a few disposals and covering a line.

As if you’re trying to explain EV to me while replying to a post where I literally corrected your incorrect EV calculation.

To dumb it down for you, I can see GC winning maybe 20%, 2.30 is not +EV, I could see them covering the line as dogs with a few goal headstart maybe 50-60% since the bookies are usually pretty sharp on lines. It's still a conflip that I wouldn't bet on. Especially in Tassie and you think it's underpriced. You must be more neurodivergent than rainman.

1. Imagine thinking the line and win markets aren’t correlated, particularly when the line is -9.5.
2. Based on your numbers you have a 30-40% chance of the hawks winning by less than 10. Surely you’re smashing the $8.25 on offer. That’s +EV if I’ve ever seen it.

 

[Veer Right]

I remember when people used to want to post on this forum. The toxic crap brings this forum down.

 

[based]

I remember when people used to want to post on this forum. The toxic crap brings this forum down.

yeah posting 100-1 sgms is a huge draw card though