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I've revived my tipping algorithm after a few years' absence. The gist is that each team has a rating which reflects their expected result against an average team on neutral ground. All past matches are scored against teams' current rating, so matches can be retrospectively re-evaluated. All...

In view of the thread on the AFL's most heinous traitors, I thought I might offer an alternative - a chance to celebrate the players who have demonstrated loyalty above and beyond the call of duty. My own nomination isn't even from the AFL, and isn't from a club I have ever supported. Garry...

Ratings from the end of last season 1. West Coast 26.4 2. Collingwood 22.7 3. Melbourne 19.4 4. Richmond 12.4 5. Geelong 11.7 6. GWS 9.9 7. Adelaide 8.5 8. Essendon 7.2 9. Hawthorn 2.9 10. North Melbourne 2.5 11. Western Bulldogs -1.9 12. Brisbane -2.2 13. Port Adelaide -2.3 14. Sydney -2.4 15...

i note that Geelong kicked the last 23 goals of their match against Frementle. Is this a record? Does anybody keep this sort of stat?

Richmond: 13-4, 138. Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast (away), Essendon, Western Bulldogs. With four games to come at their beloved MCG and their only away match against struggling Gold Coast, Richmond must be a strong chance to finish the minor round without a further loss. Projected finish...

The reverse ladder is intended to take into account the difficulty of the matches that have been played. All that I've used in this is the win-loss outcomes - no margins, no home ground advantage, nothing else. Simply put, if you beat a team, you get as many points as they have won matches. If...

I notice that Adelaide had eight players who had 25 possessions or more against Richmond. That seems like a lot. Conversely, I noticed that Richmond had only one player with as many as 20 possessions - Martin (who had his usual excellent game with 25). Does anybody keep statistics on this sort...

Just a look at premiers (and this year's grand finalist) ranked by average (winning) margin in the finals. Geelong 2007 76.66 Essendon 2000 76.66 Collingwood 1990 56.33 West Coast 1994 49 *Adelaide 2017 48.5 Carlton 2005 45.33 Brisbane 2002 44.66 Hawthorn 2008 43.66 North Melbourne 1996 43.66...

Starting with 2000, when the current AFL finals system began. Both QF winners through unbeaten to the GF. 12 One QF winner through unbeaten to the GF (QF loser wins the GF). 4 One QF winner through unbeaten to the GF (QF winner wins the GF) 0 No QF winner through unbeaten to the GF.1 So, in...

It's an amusing trivia point that Richmond and Melbourne haven't played in the same finals series since 1941. (That might well change this year) So, I felt the need to check whether there were any other interesting facts of this nature. Richmond and St Kilda haven't played in the same finals...

In a gameday thread today (yesterday?) one fan suggested that his team was robbed because they won three out of four quarters. (Only true if you count the three quarters as a whole, rather than requiring them to win every quarter). I won't identify his team, but I understand that he was feeling...

With somebody else noting the tiny difference in Premiership Points between 5th and 17th, marking this year as unusually even, I've tried looking at every season since 1995. All I've done is look at every team after 11 matches, so conclusions about this year ignore any hypothetical twelfth match...

This is all just statistically based, checking the results of every final played in the AFL era, which is 234 matches so far. Tipping the team which has scored more over the year: 64.53% (151/234). Tipping the team which has conceded less over the year: 58.55% (137/234) Tipping the team with...

This is an attempt to evaluate results so far, using the ratings from my algorithms thread to evaluate opponents. Consider the results stated to be "compared to an average performance against a hypothetical average team at a neutral ground". 5 Teams with the best average results Adelaide +47...

No agenda here - just an analysis because I'm curious for myself. Partly because my year's forecasts kept turning up some teams as placing higher than their rating would suggest. Double-up matches: Ade: Geelong, Hawthorn, Port, Melbourne, Essendon (21) Bris: Bulldogs, Port, Richmond, Gold...

It's a bit lame posting predictions for the first round while the round is nearly finished (as I type, Geelong are comfortably ahead of Freo in the last match of the round) but since the method is based on strict adherence to a formula, it shouldn't really matter. Despite promising myself to...

Well, I was bored. So, I figured that I'd look through different AFL seasons to see when the final makeup (constituent teams, not the final order) was settled. 2016: Astonishingly, the current top eight, a strong favourite to remain so (well over 80% according to bookmakers) first assembled in...

I just noticed that three winning teams this week - Geelong, GWS and Adelaide - won with the princely total of 15 goals, 15 points. (Of course, it would be improper for me to mention that this was also Adelaide's winning score in the 1998 Grand Final)

I've attempted to quantify the differences of difficulty levels of each team's draw. There's a bit more to this than just who your team plays twice. First, not all teams host interstate teams as often as they travel. Essendon, this year, travel 6 times but only host teams from interstate three...

Well, I've been playing with a team rating system on a spreadsheet. I've tried to make this impartial so my own opinions don't come into it. Neither does any actual knowledge of the teams, so I'll be making no attempt to judge how teams will match up against each other, or who's in and who's...

I noticed that Fremantle won all four quarters against Richmond yet only won by 22 points and wondered, what is the smallest winning margin in which all four quarters were won?

I'm going largely by stats here, but looking at the Collingwood v Hawthorn game it's quite possible that Collingwood had the three best-performing players on the field, while as a team being comprehensively beaten. Has anybody seen anything like this before?

In order to reduce the incidence of whining by Hawthorn supporters (oddly, they didn't seem to complain so much last year), I've worked out a completely fair way to restructure the minor round. I'm not suggesting altering the finals. I already posted this in another thread, but I like it so much...