The run home

[Hobbes]

Richmond: 13-4, 138. Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast (away), Essendon, Western Bulldogs.

With four games to come at their beloved MCG and their only away match against struggling Gold Coast, Richmond must be a strong chance to finish the minor round without a further loss. Projected finish: 17-5 - it's very possible that one of Geelong, Collingwood or Essendon will beat them.

West Coast: 13-4, 125. North Melbourne (away), Fremantle, Port Adelaide (away), Melbourne, Brisbane (away). A mixed run home - they've demonstrated this year that the road holds no terrors, but none of their remaining games is a gimme. Projected finish: 16-6.

Collingwood 12-5. 122. Richmond, Sydney (away), Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Fremantle (away). Collingwood have had a mediocre record this year against genuine contenders, so they must be favoured to lose to Richmond and Port Adelaide at the very least. Projected finish: 15-7.

Sydney 11-6, 114. Essendon (away), Collingwood, Melbourne (away), GWS, Hawthorn. Sydney have had a poor record since the bye, and don't have any easy matches to come. Projected finish 13-9.

Port Adelaide 11-6, 113. Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, Collingwood (away), Essendon. Two consecutive losses has slowed Port's charge into the finals. Projected finish: 14-8

GWS 10-1-6, 112. St Kilda, Carlton (away), Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne (away). Along with Richmond, the form team in the competition. Projected finish: 14-1-7

Melbourne 10-7, 128. Adelaide (away), Gold Coast, Sydney, West Coast (away), GWS. Sydney feels like a win, along with the obvious Gold Coast, but the other three are tough assignments. Projected finish: 12-10.

Hawthorn 10-7, 119. Fremantle (away), Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda, Sydney (away), This feels like an easy win against St Kilda, and four 50-50 assignments. Projected finish: 13-9.

Geelong 10-7, 118 Brisbane, Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Fremantle, GoldCoast. Three near-certain wins means that Geelong is better placed than many teams in the eight. Projected finish: 14-8.

North Melbourne 9-8, 108. West Coast, Brisbane (away), Bulldogs, Adelaide (away), St Kilda. Projected finish: 12-10.

Essendon 9-8, 100 Sydney, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Richmond, Port Adelaide (away). Projected finish: 11-11.

Adelaide 9-8, 99. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS (away), North Melbourne, Carlton (away). Probably the toughest team to forecast, since they've spent half of the year ravaged by injuries and are only just resembling their best 22. For now, I'm guessing a loss to GWS, wins against North and Carlton, and the other two are 50/50 propositions. Projected finish 12-10.

Projected ladder:

Richmond 17
West Coast 16
Collingwood 15
GWS 14.5
Geelong 14
Port Adelaide 14
Hawthorn 13
Sydney 13
Melbourne 12
North Melbourne 12
Adelaide 12
Essendon 11

Based on this, it does appear that 13 wins will be likely enough to make the finals. More than 14 wins will probably be needed for top 4.

 

[Macpotata]

Ross Lyon

 

[bumsonseats]

Richmond: 13-4, 138. Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast (away), Essendon, Western Bulldogs.

With four games to come at their beloved MCG and their only away match against struggling Gold Coast, Richmond must be a strong chance to finish the minor round without a further loss. Projected finish: 17-5 - it's very possible that one of Geelong, Collingwood or Essendon will beat them.

West Coast: 13-4, 125. North Melbourne (away), Fremantle, Port Adelaide (away), Melbourne, Brisbane (away). A mixed run home - they've demonstrated this year that the road holds no terrors, but none of their remaining games is a gimme. Projected finish: 16-6.

Collingwood 12-5. 122. Richmond, Sydney (away), Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Fremantle (away). Collingwood have had a mediocre record this year against genuine contenders, so they must be favoured to lose to Richmond and Port Adelaide at the very least. Projected finish: 15-7.

Sydney 11-6, 114. Essendon (away), Collingwood, Melbourne (away), GWS, Hawthorn. Sydney have had a poor record since the bye, and don't have any easy matches to come. Projected finish 13-9.

Port Adelaide 11-6, 113. Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, Collingwood (away), Essendon. Two consecutive losses has slowed Port's charge into the finals. Projected finish: 14-8

GWS 10-1-6, 112. St Kilda, Carlton (away), Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne (away). Along with Richmond, the form team in the competition. Projected finish: 14-1-7

Melbourne 10-7, 128. Adelaide (away), Gold Coast, Sydney, West Coast (away), GWS. Sydney feels like a win, along with the obvious Gold Coast, but the other three are tough assignments. Projected finish: 12-10.

Hawthorn 10-7, 119. Fremantle (away), Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda, Sydney (away), This feels like an easy win against St Kilda, and four 50-50 assignments. Projected finish: 13-9.

Geelong 10-7, 118 Brisbane, Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Fremantle, GoldCoast. Three near-certain wins means that Geelong is better placed than many teams in the eight. Projected finish: 14-8.

North Melbourne 9-8, 108. West Coast, Brisbane (away), Bulldogs, Adelaide (away), St Kilda. Projected finish: 12-10.

Essendon 9-8, 100 Sydney, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Richmond, Port Adelaide (away). Projected finish: 11-11.

Adelaide 9-8, 99. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS (away), North Melbourne, Carlton (away). Probably the toughest team to forecast, since they've spent half of the year ravaged by injuries and are only just resembling their best 22. For now, I'm guessing a loss to GWS, wins against North and Carlton, and the other two are 50/50 propositions. Projected finish 12-10.

Projected ladder:

Richmond 17
West Coast 16
Collingwood 15
GWS 14.5
Geelong 14
Port Adelaide 14
Hawthorn 13
Sydney 13
Melbourne 12
North Melbourne 12
Adelaide 12
Essendon 11

Based on this, it does appear that 13 wins will be likely enough to make the finals.

Good assessment.
I did something similar 3 or 4 weeks ago and so far looking pretty good.

Melb and Port are the most vulnerable sides currently in the 8.
Sydney could also be vulnerable if they dont find their mojo rather soon - but I think they will be ok,
I think Adelaide are the smokey and I have them likely on 13 wins, but with inferior %.
Melb every chance to finish on 12 wins, which will see Adelaide jump ahead of them.
Port's % is a bit of a concern, and might give Adelaide a sniff if both clubs finish on 13 wins.

I cant see Hawthorn winning more than 2 of our last 5.
Our backline is vulnerable, especially with Sicily out for the rest of the H&A.
If Hawthorn make the 8, then this will just prove how average the current standard of the competition is at the moment.

 

[The King!]

We win this week or we are done imo and will miss finals

 

[woosha24]

Ross Lyon

Budding comment.

 

[Power Raid]

a fair analysis

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

If the suns can beat the swans at the SCG, any analysis can be shot to s#*t in an instant.

But good write up anyway.

 

[citizen-erased]

We win this week or we are done imo and will miss finals

so many clubs in that boat.
Essendon can afford one more loss, and you'd chalk playing Richmond at the G up as a loss as they play us too well.

Dons cannot make finals.
We could beat Sydney, St Kilda, Hawthorn & Port from here on and we still need results to go our way...just to sneak into 8th.

Just want to see some good signs from here on in.
Beating the hawks would be nice too

 

[The King!]

so many clubs in that boat.
Essendon can afford one more loss, and you'd chalk playing Richmond at the G up as a loss as they play us too well.

Dons cannot make finals.
We could beat Sydney, St Kilda, Hawthorn & Port from here on and we still need results to go our way...just to sneak into 8th.

Just want to see some good signs from here on in.
Beating the hawks would be nice too

I think we might be cooked , but every time I write us off we come out and win and have been good away, but feel like we are heading to an inevitable Richmond b2b

I wont be tipping us to beat you guys Friday

 

[blitzer]

I reckon its not particularly clear how the Essendon v Sydney and Hawk matchups will turn out. On recent form we are playing better than both sides. There's no doubt we need 2 wins to keep our chances alive.

 

[tazaa]

Port and Melbourne look so vulnerable right now.
It all sets up for a Richmind/GWS-West Coast grand final.
Some pretty average teams in the competition at the minute.

 

[AstroboyUK]

these last weeks are going to be amazing in terms of drama and suspense: almost every spot on the 8 is up for grabs including 1 & 2 (Richmond will lose to collingwood and geelong mark my words). theres going to be alot decided by percentages and alot of ‘must win games’ insanely good!

 

[dave123]

I think gws will storm to make top 4

Good form ...get Cameron back ...

 

[SickQwon]

I'm not going to go too far into analytical detail or mathematical possibilities but I'd say Carlton won't win another game for the year.

 

[dave123]

I'm not going to go to for into analytical detail or mathematical possibilities but I'd say Carlton won't win another game for the year.

Yeah tough going

 

[samFFC]

GWS primed and ready to grab top 4 spot with their next 3 games. Can't see Port winning 3 more to make the top 4.
Richmond and WC clearly the top 2 teams in the comp.
Think the OP has it right with Richmond/WC/Collingwood/GWS top 4.
Main issue is that I think Melbourne look the more likely to win 3+ games than do Hawks, Port or Sydney (though Melbourne will obviously kick themselves for the weekend), and with their percentage see them rolling into a home EF.

 

[roacheee]

these last weeks are going to be amazing in terms of drama and suspense: almost every spot on the 8 is up for grabs including 1 & 2 (Richmond will lose to collingwood and geelong mark my words). theres going to be alot decided by percentages and alot of ‘must win games’ insanely good!

like *
wont lose either let alone both

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Everyone keeps saying that so many teams are stuttering and vulnerable and that therefore the quality of the 8 is poor.

The results and the ladder, however, suggest the opposite - teams are vulnerable of dropping out of the 8 only because the standard of teams in the lower part of the 8 is higher than usual.

I mean, Geelong are 10-7 with a percentage near 120 and they sit outside the 8. Last season, that record would place them 5th. Basically every other season that record would have them cemented in the 8 and contending for top 4.

Hawthorn could even win away against Fremantle this week (to go 11-7, 118%) and drop out of the 8. That is unprecedented. I remember a decade ago (2009)Hawthorn finished 9th with 9 wins and a percentage around 90. Now they could sit 9th with 2 additional wins, 30 extra % with 4 rounds to go!

Certainly making it interesting.

P.S. Melbourne winning on the weekend would have put them top 4. They just lost and are now predicted (above) to miss the 8. Small margins and very exciting.

 

[blckcaviar]

Everyone keeps saying that so many teams are stuttering and vulnerable and that therefore the quality of the 8 is poor.

Yeah I think this year (and last) have been so close because overall, the quality of football played has been better than ever.

I'm really sick of people comparing current day teams to teams in the past, and claiming past teams are way superior. I think current day teams are superior to past teams in almost every aspect. Old people just need to take their nostalgic glasses off

 

[Bazza97]

It looks like it's going to be a tight finish for spots in the top 8. I think teams will need at least 13 wins to make the finals and even then I think it's quite possible a team with 13 wins could finish just outside the 8 on percentage. Feel like it could go either way with Melbourne. 13 wins would be enough for us with our high percentage I think but I can see us finishing short on 12 wins and narrowly missing finals again. It's going to be interesting to see how the top 8 evolves from here.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

It looks like it's going to be a tight finish for spots in the top 8. I think teams will need at least 13 wins to make the finals and even then I think it's quite possible a team with 13 wins could finish just outside the 8 on percentage. Feel like it could go either way with Melbourne. 13 wins would be enough for us with our high percentage I think but I can see us finishing short on 12 wins and narrowly missing finals again. It's going to be interesting to see how the top 8 evolves from here.

People say that every year, but teams drop off. 12 wins makes finals in half the years since an 18 team comp and 13 every year.

 

[Bazza97]

People say that every year, but teams drop off. 12 wins makes finals in half the years since an 18 team comp and 13 every year.

Speaking of teams dropping off, I think Sydney and Port will drop down the ladder and GWS will nab a spot in the top 4 by the end of the season. Out of the next 5 games Melbourne play, the last one against GWS is the one that I'm least confident of winning so I'm hoping we will have secured a top 8 spot by then. However, it could very well be the game we need to win to make the finals so I'll be pretty nervous if it comes to that.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

I reckon the top 2 is sewn up, hoping the Pies can hold onto 4th, the Port game will be huge, an 8 point game if you like.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Speaking of teams dropping off, I think Sydney and Port will drop down the ladder and GWS will nab a spot in the top 4 by the end of the season. Out of the next 5 games Melbourne play, the last one against GWS is the one that I'm least confident of winning so I'm hoping we will have secured a top 8 spot by then. However, it could very well be the game we need to win to make the finals so I'll be pretty nervous if it comes to that.

I'm not sure. I think we find out about the Swans tonight. Port are a good side, they'll win easily this week and things might look a but different. Ryder is huge for them.

I think one way or the other round 23 will be big. It could be either side needing a win to make the top 4 or the 8.
I like the G, might come down for that one.

 

[JohnZ]

Projected ladder:

Richmond 17
West Coast 16
Collingwood 15
GWS 14.5
Geelong 14
Port Adelaide 14
Hawthorn 13
Sydney 13
Melbourne 12
North Melbourne 12
Adelaide 12
Essendon 11

Based on this, it does appear that 13 wins will be likely enough to make the finals. More than 14 wins will probably be needed for top 4.

This is pretty much what I had, but Sydney/North/Essendon are interchangeable based on % and Melbourne underneath them by a game.