2005: First 7 Rounds.

[Bentleigh]

Absolutely crucial. Looking over the thread in the main board: Just doing some calculations, after round 7 , the 2005 AFL ladder will look like this thread people have Richmond anywhere from 5-2 to 0-7 after 7 rounds.

We all know 2005 isnt going to bring us a flag. Many dont rate us as a chance of the top 8, which is fine, long term goals. However, we need to get off the bottem next season and I want to see us at 14th spot, at the very least.

Looking over the draw, the first 7 rounds are of dire importance. If we have zip wins after it I dont see us getting any higher than 15th, realisticly.


Rnd 1 - Vs Cats [MCG]:

Rnd 2 - Vs Hawks [MCG]:

Rnd 3 - Vs Dogs [TD]:

Rnd 4 - Vs Freo [MCG]:

Rnd 5 - Vs StKilda [TD]:

Rnd 6 - Vs Power [TD]:

Rnd 7 - Vs Carlton [MCG]:

The Geelong game could go either way. You'd pencil it in as a lose but I beleive we match up pretty well vs them. 4 points would be a great start to the year but you wouldnt be shattered, as long as the boys have a positive start to the year and put up a good show.

Rounds 2-4 will really define our year imo. 3 loses would hurt the club no end. Really, we should be aiming for 12 points. The hawks are very beatable, the Dogs will be better yet once again very much a beatable side while Freo in Melbourne are gernally woeful and we must secure 4 points.

After 4 rounds we really need at least 8 points and could get anything up to 16. The importance of getting wins in the first 4 rounds grows even more after you look at our oppisiton for rounds 5 & 6. We can dream, but realisitcly we will do well to keep them from becoming blow outs. Zero points.

I really beleive we can beat Carlton. Like the Geelong game they are prolly rated alittle higher than us but we certianly have the abilty to win. Crucial game for the Tigers.

In conclusion the best senario we can hope for is 5-2; picking up wins over everyone bar the Saints and Power. More realsiclty itd be great to go in 4-3 after 7 rounds, only dropping the 3 games. We need to beat the Hawks, Dogs and Freo, or at the very least 2 of the 3. On top of the we must fight for every inch vs both Geelong and Carlton. Any points we can get from this will be so important later on in the year.

My 2 cents.

 

[Infamy]

Freo still beat us in Melbourne this year and have a much stronger team next year
We only have some youngsters developing, despite gaining Simmonds & Knobel, our senior list has been weakened

Wallace will certainly get the most out of the playing group, but while 5-2 or 4-3 is possible, 7-0 is possible too
2-5 is reasonable and realistic however

 

[Hammerfire]

Well we were beating them by 40 points at one stage in that game!

I'll put it this way, if someone offered me 3 wins without any blowouts after the first 7 rounds i'd take it.

 

[IDGAF]

Freo still beat us in Melbourne this year and have a much stronger team next year
We only have some youngsters developing, despite gaining Simmonds & Knobel, our senior list has been weakened

Wallace will certainly get the most out of the playing group, but while 5-2 or 4-3 is possible, 7-0 is possible too
2-5 is reasonable and realistic however

What makes you think Freo will be stronger this year ? Didn`t make the finals last year and have traded thier first three picks away to get Carr , as well as losing Simmonds for Black .

They want to hope Sandilands stands up or in the big man stakes they are in schitters ditch .

I will make an early call on that mob , actually i made it last August . I will tip that Chris Connolly will be the next Coach to get the flick and they will miss the finals again .

We will beat them in round 4 , i reckon we will be 3 - 1 after 4 . Why not ?

 

[TrewTIGER]

Fair enough 3, but as Bentleigh says theya re all relatively winnable. Even Port, I dream of one-day playing a home game at the G - but we have a hope if the boys are up on the day at Telstra. Saints are the only one I would concede, but hope the team doesn't. The other thing is win a few early ones and they start to believe in themselves

 

[metallichris]

I agree with the first few rounds being the most important. But i reckon for us to beat Geelong, we MUST get a few wins in the pre season just to give us just that bit of confidence that could bring us over the line against Geelong in Rd 1. The 3 winnable games i believe we will win, but a really important thing is the belief of the players. Im not saying its impossible to beat the Saints and Port, but we should really, like said b4, focus on keeping those games' losing margins down to a goal or 2. We cant lose as many as we did last year with the margins we lost by. What was our average losing margin? 46 points or sumthing? We must avoid that with all of our losses.

 

[madtiger2005]

I'm sick of us losing to Carlton by less than a goal. The last 3 years has been the same grrrrr lol. If we come out playing confident and motivated footy and stick to a game plan, we can win 5 games. If we lose to St kilda and Port by small margins I would be happy. But Port don't play the best at Telstra so we may even knock them off. But we should go into games against Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Fremantle with some confidence. I'm sure we have some hope of winning any of the first 7 games, but we must be competive in each game and not waste any chances. I would love to beat Geelong round 1 just to shut them up

 

[nut]

2002 we were 6/2 by rnd eight
last year we were 4/4

I would have a lot more confidence in our ability to not self destruct like the last 2 seasons if we are able to get in a similar position. Mainly because of our young list.

All depends on how well we respond as a playing group to TW's new game plan. When Spud took over he had a huge impact early. Got us to a prelim. The big picture is what was lacking with spud.

10 wins would be a good result for the year. Setting us up for a finals berth the following year.

 

[Infamy]

What makes you think Freo will be stronger this year ? Didn`t make the finals last year and have traded thier first three picks away to get Carr , as well as losing Simmonds for Black .

They want to hope Sandilands stands up or in the big man stakes they are in schitters ditch .

I will make an early call on that mob , actually i made it last August . I will tip that Chris Connolly will be the next Coach to get the flick and they will miss the finals again .

We will beat them in round 4 , i reckon we will be 3 - 1 after 4 . Why not ?

Draft picks mean nothing in the next year
They have gained Carr, Black & Schofield, three players who can immediately boost their side
They may miss Simmonds, but seriously I don't think one less tall will mean they lose to the wooden spooners having just gained 2 premiership midfielders and Black who was a part of one of the best young midfields in the league.
I think that is a pretty decent improvement, the lost draft picks will mean nothing come Round 4 2005

I'm not saying its unwinnable, but to pencil it in as a win for us is stupid, at best its a 50/50

 

[sante]

i think we will be 3 and 4 IMO but that would be really good for us so maybe 2 and 5 would be more realistic

 

[madtiger2005]

I expect us to beat Freo, because we should have beaten them last season, but we slackened off and this is when we didn't have a game plan. We will be at least a 5 goal better side next season just from the game plan alone.

 

[cairo tiger]

a good result for us would be 4-3 if we were offered that we should take it....and then build from there

 

[IDGAF]

Draft picks mean nothing in the next year
They have gained Carr, Black & Schofield, three players who can immediately boost their side
They may miss Simmonds, but seriously I don't think one less tall will mean they lose to the wooden spooners having just gained 2 premiership midfielders and Black who was a part of one of the best young midfields in the league.
I think that is a pretty decent improvement, the lost draft picks will mean nothing come Round 4 2005

I'm not saying its unwinnable, but to pencil it in as a win for us is stupid, at best its a 50/50

Fair enough , Carr is a good get but i don`t rate Schofield or Black that highly , both those blokes will be keeping kids out of the side , they are on the down sides of thier careers , Schofield in particular .

My comments are probably more directed at Connolly , do not rate him at all . Alright to be the circus ringleader but eventually you are going to need some substance to back that up .

As far as penciling in wins , no such thing for us yet , in all honesty ........... but if i had to bet on it , we will roll Freo here

 

[Bentleigh]

Draft picks mean nothing in the next year
They have gained Carr, Black & Schofield, three players who can immediately boost their side
They may miss Simmonds, but seriously I don't think one less tall will mean they lose to the wooden spooners having just gained 2 premiership midfielders and Black who was a part of one of the best young midfields in the league.
I think that is a pretty decent improvement, the lost draft picks will mean nothing come Round 4 2005

I'm not saying its unwinnable, but to pencil it in as a win for us is stupid, at best its a 50/50

Freo in Melbourne is a 50/50

Both Schofield or Black are expendable and 2nd rate players.

 

[Hammerfire]

I wouldn't consider Black 2nd rate, but probably Schofield.

 

[Bentleigh]

I wouldn't consider Black 2nd rate, but probably Schofield.

Saints disagree eh?

 

[IDGAF]

Saints disagree eh?

Saints were pretty unhappy he wouldn`t accept thier terms , but they were never going to hold onto all thier list .

It was actually pretty acrimonious in the end

 

[Hammerfire]

Yeah they think a lot of their ex-players are second rate!!

 

[Bentleigh]

Saints were pretty unhappy he wouldn`t accept thier terms , but they were never going to hold onto all thier list .

It was actually pretty acrimonious in the end

The Saints understand they are not going to keep their list together. However, they are trying to keep the core players, they blokes who the value highest at the club.

Thus they will endevour to keep the likes of; Ball, Dal Santo, Hayes, Goddard, Riewold at any cost. Black was clearly not in this group nor was he ever going to be. At best a 2nd tier player.

Heck, they beleive Fiora is a good replacment.

 

[IDGAF]

The Saints understand they are not going to keep their list together. However, they are trying to keep the core players, they blokes who the value highest at the club.

Thus they will endevour to keep the likes of; Ball, Dal Santo, Hayes, Goddard, Riewold at any cost. Black was clearly not in this group nor was he ever going to be. At best a 2nd tier player.

Heck, they beleive Fiora is a good replacment.

I think that the saints viewed getting Fiora for Black as better than getting nothing , which is the way it was shaping up for them . IMO i will be surprised if Fiora gets anything more than 3-4 games for saints next year . Who will he displace ?

Grant thomas said he was dissappointed that Black knocked thier offer back , he said they had invested quite a bit into him and they got little in return ...... not happy Jan

 

[Bentleigh]

I think that the saints viewed getting Fiora for Black as better than getting nothing , which is the way it was shaping up for them . IMO i will be surprised if Fiora gets anything more than 3-4 games for saints next year . Who will he displace ?

From all accounts they reckon he is going to be a direct replacment... Very strange for mine. He will be a winger/half back for the Saints, thats if he gets games however. Im not sure who he will replace? Powell Thompson Baker Ferguson Montagna McGough S Fisher Blake Guerra Gwilt Peckett


I really dont think Fiora would have made Richmonds 22 this upcomming seasons. It was strange the Saints getting Firoa, McGough and to a lesser extent Acland (needed to strengthen ruck stocks). I see it as getting a few youngish blokes to top up for a assult on the flag over the next 1/2 a dozen seasons.

Grant thomas said he was dissappointed that Black knocked thier offer back , he said they had invested quite a bit into him and they got little in return ...... not happy Jan

Of course he wasnt happy. Black is a good, servicable player which is a first 22 player for the Saints. Your going to be dissappointed when you lose a player like that.

Looking at the big picture you'd lose a Black to retain Del Santo, Luke Ball etc. long term. At the end of the day he was at best a 2nd tier player, expendable.

 

[Infamy]

Looking at the big picture you'd lose a Black to retain Del Santo, Luke Ball etc. long term. At the end of the day he was at best a 2nd tier player, expendable.

2nd tier in the Saints side is still 1st tier in most other teams in the AFL
Irrelevant of how you rate each player personally, they are still 2 premiership midfielders, plus Black, that would be an improvement in almost anyones books

 

[Kildonan]

Absolutely crucial. Looking over the thread in the main board: Just doing some calculations, after round 7 , the 2005 AFL ladder will look like this thread people have Richmond anywhere from 5-2 to 0-7 after 7 rounds.

We all know 2005 isnt going to bring us a flag. Many dont rate us as a chance of the top 8, which is fine, long term goals. However, we need to get off the bottem next season and I want to see us at 14th spot, at the very least.

Looking over the draw, the first 7 rounds are of dire importance. If we have zip wins after it I dont see us getting any higher than 15th, realisticly.


Rnd 1 - Vs Cats [MCG]:

Rnd 2 - Vs Hawks [MCG]:

Rnd 3 - Vs Dogs [TD]:

Rnd 4 - Vs Freo [MCG]:

Rnd 5 - Vs StKilda [TD]:

Rnd 6 - Vs Power [TD]:

Rnd 7 - Vs Carlton [MCG]:

The Geelong game could go either way. You'd pencil it in as a lose but I beleive we match up pretty well vs them. 4 points would be a great start to the year but you wouldnt be shattered, as long as the boys have a positive start to the year and put up a good show.

Rounds 2-4 will really define our year imo. 3 loses would hurt the club no end. Really, we should be aiming for 12 points. The hawks are very beatable, the Dogs will be better yet once again very much a beatable side while Freo in Melbourne are gernally woeful and we must secure 4 points.

After 4 rounds we really need at least 8 points and could get anything up to 16. The importance of getting wins in the first 4 rounds grows even more after you look at our oppisiton for rounds 5 & 6. We can dream, but realisitcly we will do well to keep them from becoming blow outs. Zero points.

I really beleive we can beat Carlton. Like the Geelong game they are prolly rated alittle higher than us but we certianly have the abilty to win. Crucial game for the Tigers.

In conclusion the best senario we can hope for is 5-2; picking up wins over everyone bar the Saints and Power. More realsiclty itd be great to go in 4-3 after 7 rounds, only dropping the 3 games. We need to beat the Hawks, Dogs and Freo, or at the very least 2 of the 3. On top of the we must fight for every inch vs both Geelong and Carlton. Any points we can get from this will be so important later on in the year.

My 2 cents.

My two cents worth:

The Tigers are going through a similar process to what the Saints did about 3 years earlier. You have a core group of players who are experienced and skilfull. These must now take on leadership roles to help the talented youth evolve into great AFL players. Most start paying dividends after playing between 50 - 70 games. They need games under their belt - but you need to rotate them on the field so that they all get some experience. You just can't whack them all on the field because they will be humiliated. You need a nice blend of youth and experience. This sometimes means that you may not be playing your absolute best team - but it pays off in the long run. There is one problem that St Kilda encountered when we had our main recruiting run, sacrificing some of our experienced players, was that we had little depth. We were found out by injuries to our key personnel. You need to make it a priority that your fitness staff are on the ball and have luck go your way.

Last year and this year, your recruiting has been first rate and you will draw the benefits from it soon.

Looking at your first seven games (why these are more important than the other fourteen escapes me)

Geelong - this is a 50/50 game for you
Hawks - another 50/50 game
Dogs - 55/45 game in your favour
Freo - 40/60 game in freo's favour (this is the sort of game where the crowd may turn it for you)
St Kilda - I am biased but I only give you 20/80 chance of winning this one
Port - 30/70 game in Ports favour - tough one
Carlton - 50/50 game

The best I see RFC after 7 rounds is 5 - 2, but it is quite reasonable to expect 4 - 3 or 3 - 4.

 

[Hammerfire]

Geelong - this is a 50/50 game for you
Hawks - another 50/50 game
Dogs - 55/45 game in your favour
Freo - 40/60 game in freo's favour (this is the sort of game where the crowd may turn it for you)
St Kilda - I am biased but I only give you 20/80 chance of winning this one
Port - 30/70 game in Ports favour - tough one
Carlton - 50/50 game

I can't see how you rate matches between Geelong and Hawthorn equally!!

Cats will beat us.

We will beat hawks and dogs.

Freo is a big question mark game.

St Kilda will pump us.

Port is another question mark game, as i reckon they will fall down the ladder in 2005.

Carlton will win with Fevola on song, if not we will win.

 

[Kildonan]

I can't see how you rate matches between Geelong and Hawthorn equally!!

I think that the Geelong match, being the first of the season - anything can happen (often happens with first and last games of the season). I believe that the Tiges will be pumped and will be a 50/50 chance of taking it out (will still have a full team).

Hawthorn will see the Tiges as a game they can win so another 50/50 game.

If you beat the Hawks, may have an influence on the psyche of the Dogs in the next game. Assuming you do beat Hawks - Dogs game will be 55/45.

Freo have a poor record in Melbourne, but will see the Tiges game as a must win. They are much stronger than last year and should win (40/60 chance).
Richmond should see these interstate games at home as must wins because the return bouts are almost certain losses. A great crowd can tip the umpiring in your favour and the players will respond to the unilateral support.

The Saints recent record at TD is awesome and I expect them to win.

Port are a tough team to play anywhere - I expect them to win.

Carlton and Richmond have played many a classic game, this might not make it into the annals but should be a close one.