2014 SC Value Picks

[karaoke]

With a limited budget, players who can produce point scores above what they are priced at are (generally) worthwhile picking up.

Obviously rookies are good for this, buying a 120k priced player to produce SC pts equivalent of 70-80 per game,

So discounting the rookies (1st year players), where is the otherwise value in 2014?

I'll give you the obvious 2 to begin with;

DBeams - 2014 priced at 92pts, I reckon he will ave 115pts, +23pts (+25%)

Sand Islands - priced at 57pts, reckon '14 ave of 95pts, +38pts (+67%)

What other good value do we see available, particularly with players who may end up as keepers for the whole year?

Be realistic with projection of '14 ave, ie no good saying you think XEllis will ave 110, when nothing so far suggests he would.

 

[karaoke]

Daisy - '14 price 63pts, my '14 ave 90pts, +27pts (+43%)

MMurphy - '14 price 92pts, my '14 ave 110pts, +18pts (+19%)

SJacobs - '14 price 85pts, my '14 ave 95pts, +10pts (+12%)

 

[Krujan]

I'll start with a few from my own club

M Murphy - 2014 priced at 92, I reckon he will average 118pts, + 26pts
Kreuzer - 2014 priced at 97, reckon '14 ave of 112pts, + 15pts
Gibbs - 2014 priced at 95, reckon '14 ave of 110pts, + 15pts

Pavlich - 2014 priced at 82, reckon '14 ave of 98pts, + 16pts
Franklin - 2014 priced at 90, reckon '14 ave of 107pts, + 17pts

There are so many more underpriced guys, in particular ones comeing back from injury who have averaged premo or close to premo in recent years who have received substancial discounted prices...

 

[karaoke]

I'll start with a few from my own club

M Murphy - 2014 priced at 92, I reckon he will average 118pts, + 26pts
Kreuzer - 2014 priced at 97, reckon '14 ave of 112pts, + 15pts
Gibbs - 2014 priced at 95, reckon '14 ave of 110pts, + 15pts

Pavlich - 2014 priced at 82, reckon '14 ave of 98pts, + 16pts
Franklin - 2014 priced at 90, reckon '14 ave of 107pts, + 17pts

There are so many more underpriced guys, in particular ones comeing back from injury who have averaged premo or close to premo in recent years who have received substancial discounted prices...

MMurphy, interesting at 118 pts, not saying that will be wrong as he has shown he can ave 110pts+ in past for consecutive seasons, I was being conservative at 110pts,

Pavlich is also interesting, not talked about too much, but if he can get his body right, could easily ave 95+,

Tex Walker - '14 priced at 55pts, 'would have '14 ave at 80pts, +25pts (+45%), 'when' is the question with Tex,

 

[Krujan]

MMurphy, interesting at 118 pts, not saying that will be wrong as he has shown he can ave 110pts+ in past for consecutive seasons, I was being conservative at 110pts,

He averaged 118 in 2011

 

[karaoke]

He averaged 118 in 2011

I didn't elaborate enough on this as I meant to be inferring the pessimism that most seem to have with him, predicting a similar year to last year,

M3 for me ATM,

 

[Krujan]

I didn't elaborate enough on this as I meant to be inferring the pessimism that most seem to have with him, predicting a similar year to last year,

M3 for me ATM,

I would think that anyone who has seen Marc Murphy play even just a few times a year over his entire career would agree that he's a much, much better player than he showed last year. At his best he is capable of 120+ IMHO and is in his prime right now. Has had a solid pre-season and a year to get used to being Capt and MM's game plan. It's now or never for Murph.

I do hope that most are expecting his 2013 form again, I don't want 25%+ owning him.

 

[karaoke]

I would think that anyone who has seen Marc Murphy play even just a few times a year over his entire career would agree that he's a much, much better player than he showed last year. At his best he is capable of 120+ IMHO and is in his prime right now. Has had a solid pre-season and a year to get used to being Capt and MM's game plan. It's now or never for Murph.

I do hope that most are expecting his 2013 form again, I don't want 25%+ owning him.

Current ownership ~47% on dtlive, FWIW

2009-2012 - ave 112 (22 games), 111 (21), 118 (22), 112 (16)

Too many see only a short distance out of the rear view mirror sometimes,

 

[Krujan]

Current ownership ~47% on dtlive, FWIW

2009-2012 - ave 112 (22 games), 111 (21), 118 (22), 112 (16)

Too many see only a short distance out of the rear view mirror sometimes,

Why did you round down his averages in 2 of those years? (111.9 & 112.7) ...you always round up when over .5

113, 112, 118, 113 yes, much better

 

[Mad Sainter]

Why did you round down his averages in 2 of those years? (111.9 & 112.7) ...you always round up when over .5

113, 112, 118, 113 yes, much better

gee that makes a substantially significant difference

 

[Krujan]

gee that makes a substantially significant difference

2 whole points to be precise.

 

[Mad Sainter]

2 whole points to be precise.

My point exactly.....

 

[shiva25]

I would think that anyone who has seen Marc Murphy play even just a few times a year over his entire career would agree that he's a much, much better player than he showed last year. At his best he is capable of 120+ IMHO and is in his prime right now. Has had a solid pre-season and a year to get used to being Capt and MM's game plan. It's now or never for Murph.

I do hope that most are expecting his 2013 form again, I don't want 25%+ owning him.

Problem with Murphy is he will be first targeted by opposition players and is likely to be tagged most weeks so i cant see him getting back up to the 118 he was averaging the year before last

 

[Krujan]

Problem with Murphy is he will be first targeted by opposition players and is likely to be tagged most weeks so i cant see him getting back up to the 118 he was averaging the year before last

He's been tagged the last 3-4 years. Last year was different as none of our other mids really stood up to warrant a tag, this might well change this year and Murph is let of the leash somewhat. Also you're assuming that just because Murph struggled to break a tag last year that he will struggle to break a tag for the rest of his career. He's a much better player than that.

 

[TheOz]

Whilst the exercise of hypothesising potential ppg averages is a valid one, have people considered aggregate scores? It is one thing to state that Beams may average 115 ppg, however why isn't their any consideration as to how many games Beams will play? Whilst 115 ppg is a mighty average, if he only plays 16 out for 22 games for example, his aggregate score of 1840 is well below a Marc Murphy if he averages only 105 from 22 games for example (2310). Will a rookie subbing in for Beams make up the 470 points in 6 games (78.33 ppg)? Quite possibly yes (and 105 is a very low estimate of what Murphy is capable of scoring), however given other injuries and specifically in the back end of the season, a lack of trades, is it worth risking a player who is notoriously injury prone and has missed many consecutive games throughout his career for a player with a very good track record of games until recent seasons?

 

[TheOz]

He's been tagged the last 3-4 years. Last year was different as none of our other mids really stood up to warrant a tag, this might well change this year and Murph is let of the leash somewhat. Also you're assuming that just because Murph struggled to break a tag last year that he will struggle to break a tag for the rest of his career. He's a much better player than that.

Murphy played injured last season, he did not have much of a pre-season to speak of and played hurt for much of the season. Consequently, not only was he not particularly effective as a midfielder relative to his ceiling, he was also played on a forward flank for large periods of games.

Regarding tags, I have seen him destroy taggers like Kane Cornes for example, I think it is a myth that he can't break tags. He's not Ablett at destroying opposition taggers however his not a Nick Dal Santo either.

 

[shiva25]

He's been tagged the last 3-4 years. Last year was different as none of our other mids really stood up to warrant a tag, this might well change this year and Murph is let of the leash somewhat. Also you're assuming that just because Murph struggled to break a tag last year that he will struggle to break a tag for the rest of his career. He's a much better player than that.

Since he has being made captain he has copped the No 1 tag more often than ever before whereas in years before that by it was Judd copping the No1 tag. No other mid at Carlton warrants being tagged other than Murphy so i am thinking he will be targeted again and even though he may seem a little underpriced i am going to wait and see how he fares

 

[Krujan]

Since he has being made captain he has copped the No 1 tag more often than ever before whereas in years before that by it was Judd copping the No1 tag. No other mid at Carlton warrants being tagged other than Murphy so i am thinking he will be targeted again and even though he may seem a little underpriced i am going to wait and see how he fares

You of course are 100% right. You'd be crazy to pick him.

 

[karaoke]

You of course are 100% right. You'd be crazy to pick him.

Yes, stay away, nothing to be 'gained' here,

 

[GOAUS!]

I put forward one of the more common choices in SC 2014 one Matthew Suckling, if he averages 85-90 I'd be happy with that.

 

[karaoke]

I put forward one of the more common choices in SC 2014 one Matthew Suckling, if he averages 85-90 I'd be happy with that.

Priced at 58 pts, reckon '14 ave 85 pts, +27 pts (+46%) - in 81% of teams on dtlive

 

[karaoke]

Gunston - priced at 83 pts, reckon '14 ave of 95 pts, +12 pts (+14%)

No Buddy*, final 4 team, natural progression, could be a fwd keeper (ie F6),

*Cuts 2 ways - bigger role to play, more opposition attention (particularly after '13 finals)

My F4 ATM,

FWIW

 

[toxic]

Gunston - priced at 83 pts, reckon '14 ave of 95 pts, +12 pts (+14%)

No Buddy*, final 4 team, natural progression, could be a fwd keeper (ie F6),

*Cuts 2 ways - bigger role to play, more opposition attention (particularly after '13 finals)

My F4 ATM,

FWIW

No buddy so gunston gets a better defender, hes a nope for me

 

[timtamWB]

No buddy so gunston gets a better defender, hes a nope for me

In the games Buddy hasn't played with him, Gunston has actually averaged more goals. Not sure on SC and I can't be bothered working it out, but I don't think it's going to be that much of an issue.

 

[toxic]

In the games Buddy hasn't played with him, Gunston has actually averaged more goals. Not sure on SC and I can't be bothered working it out, but I don't think it's going to be that much of an issue.

I just dont see a CONSISTENT upside to his style of game, think he'll average about the same, maybe 5 points higher.
Dont get me wrong as a player I want him to be traded to the pies, just not sure of his SC value (think there are better options at his price range)