2015 - AFL Round 7

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$2.25|$2.33|$2.35|$2.25|$2.30|$2.28
\North Melb. |$1.65|$1.60|$1.60|$1.65|$1.62|$1.63
\|line:*.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:6.5|line:8.5|line:8.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide |$1.15|$1.19|$1.20|$1.20|$1.18|$1.18
\St Kilda |$5.50|$4.75|$4.50|$4.60|$5.00|$4.90
\|line:*.5|line:32.5|line:31.5|line:31.5|line:32.5|line:32.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Hawthorn |$1.12|$1.14|$1.13|$1.15|$1.16|$1.16
\Melbourne |$6.25|$5.75|$6.00|$5.50|$5.25|$6.00
\|line:*.5|line:36.5|line:36.5|line:36.5|line:36.5|line:37.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$2.85|$3.10|$2.90|$2.75|$3.20|$2.95
\G-W Sydney |$1.43|$1.37|$1.40|$1.45|$1.36|$1.40
\|line:*.5|line:18.5|line:17.5|line:14.5|line:18.5|line:17.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Sydney |$1.30|$1.31|$1.33|$1.34|$1.33|$1.33
\Geelong |$3.55|$3.45|$3.25|$3.30|$3.35|$3.35
\|line:*.5|line:21.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:21.5|line:20.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast |$1.13|$1.16|$1.17|$1.15|$1.16|$1.15
\Gold Coast |$6.00|$5.20|$5.00|$5.50|$5.25|$5.50
\|line:*.5|line:36.5|line:33.5|line:35.5|line:36.5|line:35.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West.Bulldogs |$4.60|$4.40|$4.25|$4.60|$4.60|$4.30
\Fremantle |$1.20|$1.21|$1.22|$1.20|$1.20|$1.22
\|line:*.5|line:28.5|line:28.5|line:30.5|line:285|line:28.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$2.25|$2.30|$2.20|$2.25|$2.25|$2.28
\Collingwood |$1.65|$1.62|$1.67|$1.65|$1.65|$1.63
\|line:*.5|line:7.5|line:6.5|line:7.5|line:7.5|line:7.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Brisbane |$5.10|$4.75|$5.00|$5.00|$5.00|$4.90
\Port Adel. |$1.17|$1.19|$1.17|$1.18|$1.18|$1.18
\|line:*.5|line:32.5|line:32.5|line:32.5|line:32.5|line:32.5

ODDS AT 17.00 ON 11/5/15

 

[Cristiano Ronaldo]

Looks like an easier round for tipping.
but not sure on Norf v Essendon and Richmond v Collingwood

 

[Atavistic]

Looks like an easier round for tipping.
but not sure on Norf v Essendon and Richmond v Collingwood

North and Collingwood. Easy.

 

[Ablett2Garland]

Yep I'm backing North/Collingwood.

 

[TheKanga]

We should be able to outscore Essendon as they struggle to kick a big score.
They are returning from Perth as well.

Kinda a tricky round, because it feels like all the favs SHOULD win.
But the prices/lines still feel a bit off...

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Two weeks in a row now that I've unloaded on Sydney straight out of the gate H2H, that $1.36 on Sportsbet is stupendously good, remember the absolute butt ****ing they gave Geelong at the SCG last year? Geelong playing a hell of a lot worse this year to go along with it. (Clark may not play and Selwood's broken hand? also an issue)

GWS the other you just have to unload on now, chance of a let down from last week but a let down won't be enough for Carlolton to even be competitive. Still $1.56 on Bet365 which is almost as good a bet as Sydney.

Every one of my doubles and trebles, hell, you can even take four leggers with confidence this week, (take both in all multi's) will revolved around these two H2H's.

Was really hoping Hawthorn would come up $1.20 after the loss on the weekend and with Hodge and Lewis still out but na, bookies have it correct around $1.15, Melbourne goina get flogged, Hawks will want a win coming of that loss and we have continually had our pants pulled down by them.

Not as keen to jump in on the North and Essendon game yet, North have struggled this year when they can't kick a score, for as ordinary as Essendon have been the past couple of weeks one thing they do have is a decent back line that could control North's forwards. Think they could blow even more in betting and be the value of the round by game time.

Think St.Kilda represent a decent bet at the line against Adelaide, i dont expect them to pull off a WCE and actually win but i can see them being competitive for 2 and half to 3 quarters. Sloane will more than likely miss and Douglas still out. Currently +33.5 on Lux, willing to have a little something now.

 

[apolis]

Selwood doesn't have a broken hand, it was swelling from blood clot or something, so he is fine to play apparently.

 

[iluvparis]

Selwood doesn't have a broken hand, it was swelling from blood clot or something, so he is fine to play apparently.

so just a minor issue then

 

[tupperware]

Players being cleared to play after serious injuries/knocks is starting to get ridiculous. Clubs only thinking about their short term gain, rather than long term effects on player.

 

[Zealbee]

Getting on some early lines and hoping for some nice middles to open up.

North Melbourne -6.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - line is 8.5 with most other bookies

Sydney -18.5 @ 1.92 (Crownbet) - line is 22.5 on Luxbet

GWS -14.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - line is 17.5 at most other bookies

 

[free at last]

What line bet are people the most bullish about?

I'm leaning towards the kangas at -8.5pts....

 

[free at last]

Is there website that shows which team has been the most successful against the line in 2015?

 

[TheKanga]

Probably going to think I'm bat shit crazy
I actually think Carlton offer a bit of value this week, H2H & the line.
Will be great if that line blows out a bit more as well.
They have to show something eventually with all the pressure they are under.
Set to regain Yarran & Menzel who will give them a bit of speed across the ground.
Also young teams will have let downs which is a concern for me.
You can't assume GWS will come out and belt Carlton.
Yes they just beat the reigning premier but they were belted by close to 100pts by WCE the week before.

 

[tupperware]

Just can't on Carlton.. just can't.

 

[stewie griffen]

GWS crazy value you'd think

 

[I Lost My Keays]

GWS line is very generous

 

[apolis]

so just a minor issue then

Sorry, burst blood vessel, not blood clot! Must have been half asleep.

 

[rideclutch]

What line bet are people the most bullish about?

I'm leaning towards the kangas at -8.5pts....

Pies. Tiges are hopeless, think they will cover easily.

 

[TI KING]

I like the Saints. They've been spanked in Adelaide in the past but they're doing well the last few weeks keeping it close in a few games. Adelaide are pretty underwhelming IMO so I'm happy to take the Saints at +32.5. Adelaide losing Sloane is a plus. North are good at -6.5 and I'll be taking them early too.

 

[Sketi]

Should have taken North at 1.85 when TheKanga pointed it out on the weekend, by the time I went to do it it had come in. Not sure I'm so keen now at 1.60, both teams can be pretty inconsistent. North though are pretty reliable at kicking a score at Etihad.

 

[free at last]

Should have taken North at 1.85 when TheKanga pointed it out on the weekend, by the time I went to do it it had come in. Not sure I'm so keen now at 1.60, both teams can be pretty inconsistent. North though are pretty reliable at kicking a score at Etihad.

The bombers are so struggling to kick a winning score.As you say north are pretty reliable at booting a winning total with the likes of Thomas,Waite,Petrie,brown, Higgins ,nahas and boomer peppering the big sticks.

 

[Atavistic]

$50 on North, Hawthorn, West Coast@2.12.
$50 on Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast@2.21.

Will be surprised if Hawks or Eagles lose. Except them both to win comfortably, and I think North and Collingwood will also be too good in their games but Bombers and Tigers still a small chance.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

All I would ask those keen North backers would be: Do you really think they returned to some sort of form because they beat Richmond? $1.60, holy shit, count me out of that.

The $1.85 that was on offer when Kanga pointed it out was probably the right price, $1.80 maybe, so some slight overs, but I wouldn't bet any lower than that.

Remember these two teams were pretty much of the same level last year, Essendon was on top early in the Elimination final but North eventually wore them down. You could argue North's list has improved with the additions of Waite and Higgins but they sure haven't played anywhere near the same level as last year yet. While Essendon have been poor the past couple of weeks, id give them the nod based on form even if round 1 and 2 did seem an eternity ago. Remember they lost to Fremantle in Perth, North beat Richmond in Tassie. Its a galaxy apart.

Im not saying they shouldn't be favs (I had them much higher than Essendon on my ladder at the start of the year expecting improvement) just be wary of that price, this game has a striking resemblance to Collingwood vs Geelong last week, one side getting in way shorter than they should be.

 

[TheKanga]

Should have taken North at 1.85 when TheKanga pointed it out on the weekend, by the time I went to do it it had come in. Not sure I'm so keen now at 1.60, both teams can be pretty inconsistent. North though are pretty reliable at kicking a score at Etihad.

Yeah thought we were likely to come in given we would've most likely beaten Richmond & they would've lost to Freo.
Anyway just heard about this WADA Appeal, that could either make the players very flat or could fire them up.

Thoughts?

 

[TheKanga]

All I would ask those keen North backers would be: Do you really think they returned to some sort of form because they beat Richmond? $1.60, holy shit, count me out of that.

The $1.85 that was on offer when Kanga pointed it out was probably the right price, $1.80 maybe, so some slight overs, but I wouldn't bet any lower than that.

Remember these two teams were pretty much of the same level last year, Essendon was on top early in the Elimination final but North eventually wore them down. You could argue North's list has improved with the additions of Waite and Higgins but they sure haven't played anywhere near the same level as last year yet. While Essendon have been poor the past couple of weeks, id give them the nod based on form even if round 1 and 2 did seem an eternity ago. Remember they lost to Fremantle in Perth, North beat Richmond in Tassie. Its a galaxy apart.

Im not saying they shouldn't be favs (I had them much higher than Essendon on my ladder at the start of the year expecting improvement) just be wary of that price, this game has a striking resemblance to Collingwood vs Geelong last week, one side getting in way shorter than they should be.

Yeah I think we will win but not over the moon about 1.60, so perhaps the line is the way to go?
You are right about us not reaching the same level as 2014 so far.
I think we underestimated how important Nick Dal Santo wad for us last season.
Not to mention Wells has been injured pretty much all year as well.