AFL 2018 - AFL Round 12

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$2.10|$2.03|$2.10|$2.15|$2.10|$2.05
\Richmond |$1.75|$1.79|$1.73|$1.71|$1.75|$1.75
\|line:**.5|line:2.5|line:4.5|line:4.5|line:4.5|line:3.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$1.45|$1.46|$1.45|$1.45|$1.47|$1.45
\North Melb. |$2.75|$2.75|$2.75|$2.75|$2.70|$2.75
\|line:**.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.13|$1.11|$1.13|$1.10|$*.**|$1.13
\Gold Coast |$6.00|$6.70|$6.00|$7.00|$*.**|$6.00
\|line:**.5|line:40.5|line:37.5|line:40.5|line:**.5|line:38.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$4.60|$5.00|$5.00|$4.50|$5.25|$4.85
\Sydney |$1.20|$1.16|$1.17|$1.21|$1.17|$1.18
\|line:**.5|line:34.5|line:33.5|line:30.5|line:34.5|line:32.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Brisbane |$2.15|$2.16|$2.20|$2.20|$2.15|$2.25
\Essendon |$1.70|$1.70|$1.67|$1.68|$1.72|$1.65
\|line:**.5|line:5.5|line:6.5|line:6.5|line:5.5|line:7.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$2.75|$2.81|$2.80|$2.75|$*.**|$2.75
\Adelaide |$1.45|$1.44|$1.44|$1.45|$*.**|$1.45
\|line:**.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:**.5|line:14.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.60|$1.63|$1.62|$1.62|$*.**|$1.60
\Collingwood |$2.35|$2.28|$2.28|$2.30|$*.**|$2.35
\|line:**.5|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:**.5|line:9.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

ODDS AT 23.00 ON 3/6/18

 

[maskmcgee]

Like Richmond at the line, and Sydney at the line. Tigers simply should win. Sydney demolish St. Kilda every time they play, including the last two seasons when they were actually in finals contention.

I think North are a really good chance of beating the Cats, but I think the odds will drift out over the week so might wait until the teams are released.

Melbourne looked a good bet last week, but injuries and Collingwood's performance makes it a little tougher to tip.

 

[langdon19]

Freo at $2.75 vs adl looks good
Sandi back and at home they are a 50/50 I think, thoughts pls ppl?

 

[NonPhixion]

Freo at $2.75 vs adl looks good
Sandi back and at home they are a 50/50 I think, thoughts pls ppl?

disagree. I think Fremantle's season is finished, they will continue to play there kids as Ross Lyon indicated. Even though its there home ground I really like Adelaide at the line.
Think Melbourne is the best bet this week tbh. they will come out firing against us because of last year. Don't think we can match it with them atm.

 

[langdon19]

disagree. I think Fremantle's season is finished, they will continue to play there kids as Ross Lyon indicated. Even though its there home ground I really like Adelaide at the line.
Think Melbourne is the best bet this week tbh. they will come out firing against us because of last year. Don't think we can match it with them atm.

Thanks mate, mainly bet totals.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Freo at $2.75 vs adl looks good
Sandi back and at home they are a 50/50 I think, thoughts pls ppl?

Pends a bit on Fyfe too

 

[Atavistic]

$30 bonus bet on North into Brisbane@6

I think both are a good chance of getting up.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

142.5 total on Port Adelaide/Richmond is bloody low for Monday.

Bookies not messing around.

 

[Ablett2Garland]

Don't see Richmond dropping this game.

 

[chrisdon16]

St. Kilda +32.5 (Neds $1.90)

 

[TheScream]

I slapped 4U on U170.5 Cats - North as well as 1U on U150.5 at $4.20. Two most defensive sides in the comp, i still think the 163.5 is value.

 

[capperscap]

hmm,
will the odds drop on richmond before friday? not sure if i should get on now
was -2.5 earlier now -4.5

 

[NonPhixion]

if the weather is clear in Adelaide on Friday night I like O141.5

 

[capperscap]

if the weather is clear in Adelaide on Friday night I like O141.5

Looks like it will be wet have you heard differently?

 

[NonPhixion]

Looks like it will be wet have you heard differently?

have been burnt in the past by relying on the weather too early in the week. 90% chance of 3-10mm.
Will see how it changes by Thursday.

 

[capperscap]

Any state of origin bets?

 

[Rocky Straight]

St. Kilda +32.5 (Neds $1.90)

How much Neds letting you bet when picking off lines on a monday for?
Good bet, will be closer to 20 Saturday

Can't believe they still haven't moved it after your bet.

 

[mookieb]

How much Neds letting you bet when picking off lines on a monday for?
Good bet, will be closer to 20 Saturday

Can't believe they still haven't moved it after your bet.

You reckon the Saints line will be +20 by Saturday?

Everything i'm looking at indicates an easy win to Syd. Reckon Saints have been flattered by accurate goal kicking, injuries to the opposition and a few out of the box games from Gresham and Membrey in the last couple of weeks.

 

[Rocky Straight]

You reckon the Saints line will be +20 by Saturday?

Everything i'm looking at indicates an easy win to Syd. Reckon Saints have been flattered by accurate goal kicking, injuries to the opposition and a few out of the box games from Gresham and Membrey in the last couple of weeks.

Were they not disadvantaged in the first 9 weeks by their goal kicking though?
Yes I think the line will drop, 32.5 was completely wrong

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[free at last]

have been burnt in the past by relying on the weather too early in the week. 90% chance of 3-10mm.
Will see how it changes by Thursday.

Yep,the bookies are really relying on BOMs long range weather forecasts more than ever before.
Adelaide's wet weather I've found is very tricky to forecast.

 

[free at last]

You reckon the Saints line will be +20 by Saturday?

Everything i'm looking at indicates an easy win to Syd. Reckon Saints have been flattered by accurate goal kicking, injuries to the opposition and a few out of the box games from Gresham and Membrey in the last couple of weeks.

I just don't see Sydney's midfield being that impressive at the moment.Sydney took for ever last Friday night to get on top of the blues.

 

[mookieb]

Were they not disadvantaged in the first 9 weeks by their goal kicking though?
Yes I think the line will drop, 32.5 was completely wrong

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I'd love the line to get to 20.

Saints lost to Syd by 50 and 44 points last season.

In losses to top 8 teams in Melb: NM -52, Ade -49, Geel -47, Melb -39, Coll -28, Rich -28

I personally think that the margin flattered them in losses to Rich (lost Houli and Riewoldt in Qtr 1) and WC who lost Darling in Qtr 1 an were up by 48 points at 3 Qtr time.

In losses to top 8 teams in Melb (last year): Geel -38, Syd -50, Ess -61

Saints missing Bruce, Carlisle, Brown, Gilbert, Roberton, Acres, Geary. 2 key backs out so no matchup for Buddy. Likely to be smashed in contested possessions (ranked 18th vs 5th).

Unfortunately Syd aren't really smashing the weaker teams but the Freo game was encouraging.

 

[Rocky Straight]

I'd love the line to get to 20.

Saints lost to Syd by 50 and 44 points last season.

In losses to top 8 teams in Melb: NM -52, Ade -49, Geel -47, Melb -39, Coll -28, Rich -28

I personally think that the margin flattered them in losses to Rich (lost Houli and Riewoldt in Qtr 1) and WC who lost Darling in Qtr 1 an were up by 48 points at 3 Qtr time.

In losses to top 8 teams in Melb (last year): Geel -38, Syd -50, Ess -61

Saints missing Bruce, Carlisle, Brown, Gilbert, Roberton, Acres, Geary. 2 key backs out so no matchup for Buddy. Likely to be smashed in contested possessions (ranked 18th vs 5th).

Unfortunately Syd aren't really smashing the weaker teams but the Freo game was encouraging.

Just saying what the market will have it by kick off.
Brisbane were well backed two weeks ago vs swans and started 16pt dogs.
I'd say market rates stk similar to Brisbane now so 32 is way too high.

Last years results mean absolutely nothing to this weeks game, and yes last two weeks results flattered St Kilda but many of those other results were harsh on the saints, they're somewhere in between.




Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[Spacedog]

Anyone else like the pies? I dont mind unders on that game either

 

[targett]

You reckon the Saints line will be +20 by Saturday?

Everything i'm looking at indicates an easy win to Syd. Reckon Saints have been flattered by accurate goal kicking, injuries to the opposition and a few out of the box games from Gresham and Membrey in the last couple of weeks.

Geary OUT