Draft Review 2020 - Revisit the 2020 AFL Draft

[Dockeroo]

It’s been an underwhelming draft for sure.
But only 3 years in, it really is too soon to judge. Campbell has been pretty underwhelming and I certainly would be disappointed with him at pick 5 if my club used a selection that high.
Pedlar (11) is one to watch, he had a decent season in 2023

 

[adammania9]

I'm not really sure what McDonald or Campbell have done to be rated that highly. Are they just there cause they were rated highly at the draft and have probably been better than Tilthorpe? The top 3 are miles ahead of them.

Pity about Chapman's injuries this year. I'd probably have him 4th based on his performances last year. And I like Perkins.

McCreary is a really nice role player. But will he ever be more than that?

You'd say only Henry has had a better career so far of blokes rather lower than the Sydney boys. McDonald returning 32 goals this years was a really good return and he still promises to be a great player. Campbell's disposal numbers continue to fluctuate but when he has 15+, you really notice them. Outstanding user. Confident both retire in the top 6 or 7 players from this draft.

It's not fair to rate players on potential IMO. Would McCreery go top 10 in a redraft for the rest of their careers? Highly unlikely, but he's outperformed most in this draft so far. My understanding is that these "redrafts" are on output, not potential.

 

[liz]

It's not fair to rate players on potential IMO... My understanding is that these "redrafts" are on output, not potential.

Fair? The whole draft (the real thing) is based on potential, not output. So when people give their opinions on a redraft order they are surely going to include an element of guessed potential, especially for players just a few years into their career.

 

[conrad_437]

The sole purpose of these redrafts is to order the players based on where we would pick them, given the opportunity, in 2023. The sooner the redraft takes place after a draft, the more weight will be given to subjective potential, while if a redraft is taking place when nearly all players are in their prime, then more weight will be given toward proven ability and past production.

It's like putting Finn Callaghan in front of Sam Darcy in a 2021 redraft. Of course Finn has had more output, but 18 out of 18 clubs would comfortably select Sam Darcy ahead of him purely for the sheer potential he holds.

 

[KissKiss]

The sole purpose of these redrafts is to order the players based on where we would pick them, given the opportunity, in 2023. The sooner the redraft takes place after a draft, the more weight will be given to subjective potential, while if a redraft is taking place when nearly all players are in their prime, then more weight will be given toward proven ability and past production.

It's like putting Finn Callaghan in front of Sam Darcy in a 2021 redraft. Of course Finn has had more output, but 18 out of 18 clubs would comfortably select Sam Darcy ahead of him purely for the sheer potential he holds.

Yeah I've always considered it a sliding scale between potential/output. The further from the draft year the more it shifts to output. I reckon somewhere around the 4-5th year is when output starts to become the main consideration. By then mids should becoming major players and talls are just starting to really break out

 

[adammania9]

Fair? The whole draft (the real thing) is based on potential, not output. So when people give their opinions on a redraft order they are surely going to include an element of guessed potential, especially for players just a few years into their career.

Potential is completely in the eye of the beholder. Once their careers start, all players are equal and start at zero. They should be ranked on output thus far.

 

[liz]

Potential is completely in the eye of the beholder. Once their careers start, all players are equal and start at zero. They should be ranked on output thus far.

This is a football discussion board where people give - and respond to - subjective opinions. Why does any one individual get to dictate the basis on which others should offer their perspectives?

There’s nothing to stop you rating players on your (still subjective) view of what they’ve achieved to date.

But I suspect most posters, entering a thread entitled “redraft”, would factor in their guesses about the future, especially when discussing players a few years away from entering their prime.

There’s nothing right or wrong, fair or unfair, about either approach.

 

[Sentinel]

You're doing a bit of double dipping there.

Firstly you're wishing the Northern Academy rules would have precluded matching a bid before pick 40 in year when the NGA rules had no such matching constraints and where you would have been allowed to match a bid at pick 1 on a player had he not been removed from your zone.

Secondly, had Ugle-Hagan still been in your zone and thus you were able to match a bid at pick 1, you would not have had the draft capital to match that bid, trade in Jeremy Cameron and still draft Holmes and bid on Gulden.

Genuine question - was Ugle-Hagan ever actually in any Geelong zone?

This seems like a myth trotted out by Geelong supporters, the NGA was the first zone system to be created for Victorian club since the VFL and the Bulldogs were given the Warnambool region from its inception (zones announced Feb 2016, see here: Blues allocated region for academy ), when Jamarra was 13 years old.

Unless I'm missing something? Happy to be corrected.

 

[flipper83]

Genuine question - was Ugle-Hagan ever actually in any Geelong zone?

This seems like a myth trotted out by Geelong supporters, the NGA was the first zone system to be created for Victorian club since the VFL and the Bulldogs were given the Warnambool region from its inception (zones announced Feb 2016, see here: Blues allocated region for academy ), when Jamarra was 13 years old.

Unless I'm missing something? Happy to be corrected.

Yeah I'm not sure where it's come from Jamara played for our development squad from the first year the NGAs were set up too.

 

[goodie23]

Genuine question - was Ugle-Hagan ever actually in any Geelong zone?

This seems like a myth trotted out by Geelong supporters, the NGA was the first zone system to be created for Victorian club since the VFL and the Bulldogs were given the Warnambool region from its inception (zones announced Feb 2016, see here: Blues allocated region for academy ), when Jamarra was 13 years old.

Unless I'm missing something? Happy to be corrected.

From what I've read a lot of this story can be traced back to an interview Stephen Wells did on 3AW in 2020 and a podcast Mathew Stokes did at some point - it sounds like Geelong did community camps and whatnot in the area (still do, they went this year). It'd make sense the club lobbied for Warnambool to be part of their zone, they missed out.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I'm curious to know how Adelaide are rating their haul?

Happy with Thilthorpe?

Pedlar seemed like a huge reach when Bruhn, Chapman etc. were still on the board, although they very well could've done a Perkins in their interviews. Rowe surprised me a little bit too.

I guess my question is are you satisfied you got the best players for your side, or was it too heavily weighted to taking players out of SA?

Thilthorpe has put on more strength in the off season with a view to rag dolling opponents, so should be in for a more consistent season.

I'm still happy we selected him over McDonald, but it will be interesting to watch the respective careers of JUH, Thilthorpe & McDonald. Said at the time I think all 3 will be good players & haven't changed my mind.

Pedlar not looking like a stretch now & would not swap him for either Bruhn or Chapman. Imo, will be the Crows most influential midfielder in the next decade. Just makes things happen.

 

[Footy Smarts]

A few more good performances from this draft group.

Perkins with a massive break out game. Holmes has clearly gone to another level. Logan McDonald kicked 4. Bruhn and Campbell are showing they belong at the level. Gulden and JUH still look the absolute cream of the crop.

Pity about Reid who showed a bit.

This was never likely to be a strong draft with the covid impact. They've taken longer but it doesn't look like the complete bust it was feared to be.

 

[citizen-erased]

A few more good performances from this draft group.

Perkins with a massive break out game. Holmes has clearly gone to another level. Logan McDonald kicked 4. Bruhn and Campbell are showing they belong at the level. Gulden and JUH still look the absolute cream of the crop.

Pity about Reid who showed a bit.

This was never likely to be a strong draft with the covid impact. They've taken longer but it doesn't look like the complete bust it was feared to be.

Hopefully reid is just match conditioning with that hamstring. Happy for this to be a year where he builds that fitness into the body so the strain doesn't cause niggles.

Cox very much in make or break territory this year

 

[Ambrosia]

Hopefully reid is just match conditioning with that hamstring. Happy for this to be a year where he builds that fitness into the body so the strain doesn't cause niggles.

Cox very much in make or break territory this year

I think Cox has shown enough that he’ll be at worst a handy 3rd/4th tall defender but doesn’t look to have the ceiling you’d hope for as a top 10 pick.

Reid clearly has the tools but am worried he’s going to end up too immobile with the constant injuries.

 

[RonnieRaven]

They have to pull their finger out or it might be a fizzer.
Considering what the 2019 draft class achieved in 2023.
The 2020 class have some work to do in 2024

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think Cox has shown enough that he’ll be at worst a handy 3rd/4th tall defender but doesn’t look to have the ceiling you’d hope for as a top 10 pick.

Reid clearly has the tools but am worried he’s going to end up too immobile with the constant injuries.

Weirdly and call me insane but apart from Logan (I just view KPF's more), Cox could have the highest ceiling but it may just take him time and maybe a change of environment, he hasn't been helped at a poor development club (no offence). I'd love to develop Cox and see how good he gets.

 

[Cringle]

Jack Carroll looking like a neat little pick up just quietly

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Jack Carroll looking like a neat little pick up just quietly

Pretty lucky to get him at pick 41, most phantoms had him going way higher. Some even late first round from memory.

Would be nice to see all three of Carroll, Hollands and Durdin cement themselves in our side this year.

 

[00Stinger]

2020 was the covid year

Was always going to make this a risky draft with no exposed last year of football form

Expect it to be one of the more topsy turvy drafts with high picks missing and late picks really hitting

 

[Freomaniac]

It’s been an underwhelming draft for sure.
But only 3 years in, it really is too soon to judge. Campbell has been pretty underwhelming and I certainly would be disappointed with him at pick 5 if my club used a selection that high.
Pedlar (11) is one to watch, he had a decent season in 2023

Are you happy with what Freo got in this draft?

 

[gandaal]

Elijah Hollands first game at Carlton:

22 disposals 9 contested 1 goal 5 tackles 8 score involvements 86% disposal efficiency

Not bad numbers at all. It'll be interesting to see if he continues to perform.

 

[Dockeroo]

This is a weak draft overall. The clear difference here being that these guys from pick 3 onwards below would not crack the top 12 in 2019 redraft.
If the 2020 draft was held again tomorrow, 4 years on this I how I reckon it would play out.
Be mindful that I think KPP, especially key forwards are much more sought after and so clubs will draft them higher than a non KPP even if their outputs looks similar. For example, Treacy and Ginnivan came from the rookie draft. However 18/18 list managers would select Treacy tomorrow over ginnivan because a big KPF/ruck is SO much more in demand and harder to find than a small forward.

1. Jamarra Ugle Hagan
2. Errol Gulden
I believe the majority of clubs would select JUH over Errol still because he’s a KPF but Errol has been much better so far and it’s only potential that has JUH marginally ahead for me now. Daylight then to the next player:

3. Ollie Henry
4. Max Holmes
5. Logan McDonald
6. Josh Treacy
7. Riley Thilthorpe (this guy is only ranked here on potential because he plays in such a sought after position - needs to show something real soon…)
8. Beau McCreery
9. Tom Powell
10. Archie Perkins
11. Heath Chapman
12. Tanner Bruhn
13. Jake Bowey
14. Braeden Campbell
15. Jack Ginnivan
16. Shannon Neale (mostly sought after key position potential on this one only because I’m running out of options quickly now)
17. Brandon Walker
18. Luke Pedlar

Confident all these guys so far will have full AFL careers if they remain injury free. Possibly optimistic on Neale but they apparently like him down there at the cattery.

From about here on I think there’s a drop off - many of these players are completely unproven and have only shown flashes. Some will make it but many will definitely be out of the system in 3 years time.

Jack Carroll
Will Phillips
Elijah Hollands
Samson Ryan
Tyler Brockman
Lachie Jones
Zach Reid
Eddie Ford
Ollie Lord
Seamus Mitchell
Reef McInnes
Sam Berry
Finlay Mcrae
Nathan O’Driscoll
Nik Cox
Charlie Lazarro
Maurice Rioli Jr
Jacob Wehr
Corey Durdin

The rest - can just about put a line though then right now. They two GWS boys Angwin and Stone, can anyone from the giants give an update on them? Are they busts or still some hope there?

 

[SnusCG]

1. Jamarra Ugle Hagan
2. Errol Gulden

This is about the time I stopped reading

 

[gandaal]

This is a weak draft overall. The clear difference here being that these guys from pick 3 onwards below would not crack the top 12 in 2019 redraft.
If the 2020 draft was held again tomorrow, 4 years on this I how I reckon it would play out.
Be mindful that I think KPP, especially key forwards are much more sought after and so clubs will draft them higher than a non KPP even if their outputs looks similar. For example, Treacy and Ginnivan came from the rookie draft. However 18/18 list managers would select Treacy tomorrow over ginnivan because a big KPF/ruck is SO much more in demand and harder to find than a small forward.

1. Jamarra Ugle Hagan
2. Errol Gulden
I believe the majority of clubs would select JUH over Errol still because he’s a KPF but Errol has been much better so far and it’s only potential that has JUH marginally ahead for me now. Daylight then to the next player:

3. Ollie Henry
4. Max Holmes
5. Logan McDonald
6. Josh Treacy
7. Riley Thilthorpe (this guy is only ranked here on potential because he plays in such a sought after position - needs to show something real soon…)
8. Beau McCreery
9. Tom Powell
10. Archie Perkins
11. Heath Chapman
12. Tanner Bruhn
13. Jake Bowey
14. Braeden Campbell
15. Jack Ginnivan
16. Shannon Neale (mostly sought after key position potential on this one only because I’m running out of options quickly now)
17. Brandon Walker
18. Luke Pedlar

Confident all these guys so far will have full AFL careers if they remain injury free. Possibly optimistic on Neale but they apparently like him down there at the cattery.

From about here on I think there’s a drop off - many of these players are completely unproven and have only shown flashes. Some will make it but many will definitely be out of the system in 3 years time.

Jack Carroll
Will Phillips
Elijah Hollands
Samson Ryan
Tyler Brockman
Lachie Jones
Zach Reid
Eddie Ford
Ollie Lord
Seamus Mitchell
Reef McInnes
Sam Berry
Finlay Mcrae
Nathan O’Driscoll
Nik Cox
Charlie Lazarro
Maurice Rioli Jr
Jacob Wehr

The rest - can just about put a line though then right now. They two GWS boys Angwin and Stone, can anyone from the giants give an update on them? Are they busts or still some hope there?

Corey Durdin played in a team that beat yours 2 games ago, and has played most games this year. Probably not best 22 when a few others return but 100% fitness is pretty rare at Carlton.

 

[Dockeroo]

Corey Durdin played in a team that beat yours 2 games ago, and has played most games this year. Probably not best 22 when a few others return but 100% fitness is pretty rare at Carlton.

Forgot durdin. He goes into the bracket of players from 25 onwards or so will add his name in