AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 11

[balmainforever]

 

[pacemaker]

&@^$ sake the tigers really do just lack that extra punch up forward.

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

I've got to review my Saturdays. They are full of losses and I end up treading water with results.

Betting margins and spreads, h2h multis, especially if you degen each game. Unless you're incredibly sharp, betting large odds on underdogs, PYOL you will just tread water or be depositing each week.

Last year I focused on select Either side under 24 bets on Lads and did ok. But idgaf about grinding away/sweating -ev odds.

This is the first year I've really focused on goal scorers and have been really strict betting max 1, 2.5% or max 10% of my available degen funds. Get on the AGS bets and goal trains, multiple plus even odds each game for a single event thats not correlated with anything else, and then for multi scorers. just gotta pick the right guy from forward line, followers or centre/wings.

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

1 Davey Jnr AGS 2.27
.2 Davey Jnr 2+ $6
.1 Davey Jnr 3+ $23
SB

.5 Merrett AGS 2.20 b365
.25 Wright 4+ 5.50
.25 Wright 5+ $13 b365

Stringer 3-6
3.35 7.25 , 16, 51
SB

This thread is more reliable than Metro!

Lohman - Warner - Williams - Stringer

Clug or Bailey will be joining the freight train tomorrow.

 

[Suncraze]

Don't understand the Richmond move at all. Had a big crack at Essendon -34.5

Yuck

 

[pacemaker]

Joe Daniher To Kick 2+ Goals
Blake Hardwick

15

Blake Hardwick

Age

27

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.1

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

264.7

4star

D

13.8

3star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.7

3star

MG

264.7

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.4

4star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee

4

Callum Ah Chee

Age

26

Ht

183cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

Anytime Goalscorer

$9.23 PB

 

[pacemaker]

Bayley Fritsch

31

Bayley Fritsch

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.7

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Mitch Owens Anytime Goalscorer
Kade Chandler

37

Kade Chandler

Age

24

Ht

175cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

9.0

5star

G

0.0

1star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

9.0

5star

G

0.0

1star

Anytime Goalscorer
Anthony Caminiti Anytime Goalscorer

$5.32 PB

 

[pacemaker]

Jake Waterman

2

Jake Waterman

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

2star

K

7.8

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

5.8

5star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Jack Darling

27

Jack Darling

Age

32

Ht

191cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.4

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.0

5star

G

1.4

5star

Anytime Goalscorer
Josh Rachele Anytime Goalscorer

$4.27 PB

 

[ferrisb]

Mods, please make it compulsory for all posters who cite their earlier punts to use beer, sad face, potato and turd emojis!

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

View attachment 2000697

Mods, please make it compulsory for all posters who cite their earlier punts to use beer, sad face, potato and turd emojis!

I meant to use the Carlton emoji for the Stringer losing bets but BF used the poo emoji, weird, must be a forum glitch.

 

[McCluggages Luggage]

1% Bailey 2+ $2.80 PB
1% Bailey 3+ $8.00 PB
1% Ah Chee 2+ $3.75 PB
1% Ah Chee 3+ $12 PB
1% McCluggage 2+ $6.50 PB
1% McCluggage 3+ $21 PB

.5% Bailey, Ah Chee, McCluggage: AGS 4.35 PB payback

Clugs Sunday Goal Scorer Bingo

Ah Chee AGS
McCluggage AGS
Bailey AGS
Lohman AGS
Neale AGS
Rayner AGS
Daniher 2+
Ginnivan 2+
Hardwick 2+
Chol 2+
600 SB boosted

Owens AGS
Henry AGS
King 2+
Caminiti 2+
Higgins 2+
Gawn AGS
Rooyen AGS
Petracca 2+
Pickett 2+
Fritsch 2+
501 SB

20 legs $3 @ 313745 = $941,236.25 SB boosted

 

[pacemaker]

80+ FANTASY SUNDAY

Melbourne v St Kilda
Ed Langdon

15

Ed Langdon

Age

28

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

20.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

7.5

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

0.8

1star

CL

1.8

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.6

3star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Christian Salem

3

Christian Salem

Age

28

Ht

184cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.9

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.1

5star

MG

350.6

5star

D

18.1

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

6.1

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

285.7

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

6.2

3star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Bradley Hill To Get 80+ Fantasy
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Jarman Impey To Get 80+ Fantasy
Will Day To Get 80+ Fantasy
Jai Newcombe To Get 80+ Fantasy
Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

28

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Adelaide v West Coast
Mitchell Hinge

20

Mitchell Hinge

Age

25

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.0

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

14.0

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.5

4star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Jake Soligo To Get 80+ Fantasy
Rory Laird

29

Rory Laird

Age

30

Ht

177cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.4

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

12.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

19.6

5star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.7

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

To Get 80+ Fantasy

$99.25 PB

 

[jikost]

Has the TAB SGM trick been disabled for everyone else too? Mine is gone.

 

[LeCoqHead]

Has the TAB SGM trick been disabled for everyone else too? Mine is gone.

Yep, she’s gone.

 

[jikost]

Yep, she’s gone.

Someone SGM'd Humphrey 5+ into Lohmann 5+ into Hardwick 5+ @ $64 million lol

 

[jikost]

Will Day 90+ fantasy points @ $2.10 pb - Looks to be back in form after the off-season injury... Scored 109 last week.

 

[Fizza]

Lol I only just realised that hawks, lions game is at Marvel. Loading up on Lions forwards

 

[Robo87]

Brandon Ryan tall dude (2m) might play fwd for lions with no hipwood.
took last night.
1u, 1u, 0.5u Ryan 234g @5/16/51 tab. but sry they wound his odds in after i placed my bets.

 

[Fizza]

Taking the returning Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

2,3,4,5 @ $2.85, $7.50, $25, $100
Edit: at Bet365

 

[Fizza]

Brandon Ryan tall dude (2m) might play fwd for lions with no hipwood.
took last night.
1u, 1u, 0.5u Ryan 234g @5/16/51 tab. but sry they wound his odds in after i placed my bets.

How much you get on haha

 

[Fizza]

McCluggages Luggage tailed the Clug
2,3,4 @ $4.50, $15, $79

 

[Fizza]

How much you get on haha
View attachment 2000996

All good Robo87, found him $30 for 4 on 365

 

[Coach Bombay]

Joe Daniher To Kick 2+ Goals
Blake Hardwick To Kick 2+ Goals
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer

$9.23 PB

Tailed except replaced Ah Chee with Bailey @8's

 

[toenail11]

2 Hardwick
1 chol, lohman , gin, Rayner
@9.50 pb

 

[pacemaker]

Big O & Meek AGS $8.45 pb

Bruest 2 $3.10 pb
Bruest 3 $9 pb

Morris 2+ $3.50 SB
sneeze 2+ $3.75 pb
sneeze 3+ $12 pb
Rayner 2+ $3.90 sb

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Big O & Meek AGS $8.45 pb

Bruest 2 $3.10 pb
Bruest 3 $9 pb

Morris 2+ $3.50 SB
sneeze 2+ $3.75 pb
sneeze 3+ $12 pb
Rayner 2+ $3.90 sb

Bruest is sub bro.