AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 11

[balmainforever]

 

[Robo87]

Taking the returning Zac Bailey
2,3,4,5 @ $2.85, $7.50, $25, $100

good pick i think,
im also on this Bailey train 2-5! 1st game back hopefully doesnt play midfield too much.

 

[X_box_X]

You degenerates are unlikely to have any interest in Betfair, but I have it on good authority that Betfair AFL traders read your weekly threads.

HI BETFAIR TRADERS

For the first four rounds of the season, as well as every round last season, there were 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals markets available. More more was traded on these markets than their goal kicking markets. Fact.

Two months ago, Betfair stopped offering markets for 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals but they continued to offer markets for 2+ and 3+ goal kickers.

Three of us have been emailing Betfair in relation to them removing disposals markets and the responses we continue to receive is there's not enough liquidity in the disposals markets and that's why they're unable to offer them.

LONG STORY SHORT, the weekly AFL threads on these markets are read by their traders and because 98% of the discussion in these threads are focused on goal kicking props, they believe there's more liquidity in those markets.

None of you ever post bets with Betfair so we have no idea what they're on about when they say there's more liquidity and turnover in their goal kicking props. Often there's less than $200 traded in their goal kicking markets.

You guys won't care enough cause most of you are degenerates, but if you suddenly started posting disposals bets (regardless of they're on Betfair), their silly traders might reconsider offering 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposal markets again.

 

[Robo87]

2 Hardwick
1 chol, lohman , gin, Rayner
@9.50 pb

sb gave me @10s tailed it with a 'bet returns' incase 1 leg fails. i like it as it seems a good insurance bet incase my lions gs fail today.

 

[Del125763]

Looking to bounce back after misreading Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

29

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

and Anderson games yesterday.

Did some research into Brisbane key player performance at the Docklands. Its a ground they do well but some Ill back the trends.



1u
Oscar McInerney

46

Oscar Mcinerney

Age

31

Ht

205cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.1

2star

K

4.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

CL

1.4

4star

HO

14.3

5star

D

6.9

1star

K

4.1

2star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

1.9

4star

HO

16.4

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

11.2

5star

Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Joe Daniher Under 85.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.83

Big O has gone the under at the Marvel 7/7 games.
Big Joe has gone the under at the Marvel in 7 of his past 8 games.

Big Joe might have a big game today and kick a bag of 5 or 6 goals but it doesnt necessarily mean he will clear his Fantasy Line.

1u
Dunkley 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.79 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)
Zorko and Dunkley comfortably average over 100 plus at the Docklands past 3 seasons. And Ill back Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

29

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

to get 70+ Points as he averages around that at this ground. He is the risk but I can see Brisbane , who have a good record at the ground winning 7 of their past 8 , going through him for ball control in the backline.

0.5u
Dylan Moore

8

Dylan Moore

Age

26

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
James Worpel

29

James Worpel

Age

26

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

Over 77.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Odds: $6.66
Gut based feel just watching the way Hawks have been going this season. And quick look at tables, all players cleared their lines in the last game at the Marvel against Bulldogs.

0.25u Lotto
Dylan Moore

8

Dylan Moore

Age

26

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Oscar McInerney

46

Oscar Mcinerney

Age

31

Ht

205cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.1

2star

K

4.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

CL

1.4

4star

HO

14.3

5star

D

6.9

1star

K

4.1

2star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

1.9

4star

HO

16.4

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

11.2

5star

Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Dunkley Over 112.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $40.66

Will use the Big O line and go against it. Also Meek has been one of the big improvers in the ruck this season, with opposition teams not tending to rack up big scores against him, and Meek being able to hold his own.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Hardwick 2
Dear 2
Ginnivan
Chol

@ 21 365

 

[toenail11]

2 chol, Bailey , Cameron
1 Moore, lohman
@18 pb

On Rayner 2-5 , gin 4-5 , bailey 4-5

 

[Del125763]

And a speculative little AFL Fantasy Same Game Multi:


Nothing more than just based on their averages from the past 3 seasons. Im using this as a bit of insurance.

 

[pacemaker]

Bruest is sub bro.

Oh man! This happens all the time! Thanks man

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Dear FG @ 21 SB

 

[pacemaker]

Will my Bruest bets be void as singles with pb or will they ride when he comes on?

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet offer an AFL Fantasy handicap market but at 134% margin, they have to do better than that.....



I think Dunkley will perform at least 20+ points better than his next Brisbane Lions competitor.

Those odds should have at least another $1 on those.

 

[tangolikelama]

Amon, Newcombe, Dunkley, Berry 20+
Worpel, Wilmot, Bailey, Moore 15+
Lohmann, Ginnivan AGS
Moore, Bailey 2+
@70

 

[dontlimitme]

2 Hardwick
1 chol, lohman , gin, Rayner
@9.50 pb

i will follow you until my last breath lisan

 

[dontlimitme]

Amon, Newcombe, Dunkley, Berry 20+
Worpel, Wilmot, Bailey, Moore 15+
Lohmann, Ginnivan AGS
Moore, Bailey 2+
@70

well well well

 

[mac23]

I’m just going to call it what it is…

Nightmare weekend final desperation multi

Lions
Dunkley 20+
Worpel 15+
CC, Daniher, Rayner AGS

Broncos -5.5 (NRL)
Mariner or Walsh to score

Dees
Saints +57.5
Wanganeen-Milera, Bonner 20+
Fritsch AGS

Crows
Eagles +68.5
Laird, Dawson, Duggan, Kelly 20+
Reid 15+
Tex AGS

$53 SB Boost

 

[pacemaker]

Blake Hardwick

15

Blake Hardwick

Age

28

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.1

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

264.7

4star

D

13.8

3star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.7

3star

MG

264.7

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.4

4star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Logan Morris Anytime Goalscorer
Kai Lohmann Anytime Goalscorer
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee

4

Callum Ah Chee

Age

28

Ht

182cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.5

3star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.1

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

G

0.8

4star

Anytime Goalscorer

$8.45 PB

 

[Jonsyd1]

Charlie 2
Morris
Ryan
Macdonald
Dear
@10

 

[Robo87]

the mighty lohmann train continuing from last week!! he jumps the round 10 track into round 11!
Lohmann 2345g @3.60/11/41sb/71ts
ive gone a big bigger this week cause i now love the dude and his celebrations.. lol. 2g seems a good chance before gravy.
3u 2g+ @3.6 sb
3u 3g+ @11 sb
1u 4g+ @34 sb
1u 5g+ @71 ts

 

[Fizza]

RYANNN!

 

[Robo87]

RYANNN!

Yes let's go!

 

[Fizza]

You degenerates are unlikely to have any interest in Betfair, but I have it on good authority that Betfair AFL traders read your weekly threads

I ****ing knew it, everyone did, this is absolute confirmation though. Thanks for posting X_box_X

 

[pacemaker]

Sub on Bruest!!

 

[dontlimitme]

sort your shit out lions

 

[tangolikelama]

I legit haven't sighted Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

 

[dontlimitme]

I legit haven't sighted Zac Bailey

first game back from an injury campaigner