balmainforever
Dibs
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Rd 14 Reviews + Club boards »
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Read the wrap-up and post your "Liked, Learned, Hated" right here.
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 11
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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good pick i think,
im also on this Bailey train 2-5! 1st game back hopefully doesnt play midfield too much.
X_box_X
The Opportunist
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You degenerates are unlikely to have any interest in Betfair, but I have it on good authority that Betfair AFL traders read your weekly threads.
HI BETFAIR TRADERS
For the first four rounds of the season, as well as every round last season, there were 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals markets available. More more was traded on these markets than their goal kicking markets. Fact.
Two months ago, Betfair stopped offering markets for 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals but they continued to offer markets for 2+ and 3+ goal kickers.
Three of us have been emailing Betfair in relation to them removing disposals markets and the responses we continue to receive is there's not enough liquidity in the disposals markets and that's why they're unable to offer them.
LONG STORY SHORT, the weekly AFL threads on these markets are read by their traders and because 98% of the discussion in these threads are focused on goal kicking props, they believe there's more liquidity in those markets.
None of you ever post bets with Betfair so we have no idea what they're on about when they say there's more liquidity and turnover in their goal kicking props. Often there's less than $200 traded in their goal kicking markets.
You guys won't care enough cause most of you are degenerates, but if you suddenly started posting disposals bets (regardless of they're on Betfair), their silly traders might reconsider offering 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposal markets again.
HI BETFAIR TRADERS
For the first four rounds of the season, as well as every round last season, there were 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals markets available. More more was traded on these markets than their goal kicking markets. Fact.
Two months ago, Betfair stopped offering markets for 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposals but they continued to offer markets for 2+ and 3+ goal kickers.
Three of us have been emailing Betfair in relation to them removing disposals markets and the responses we continue to receive is there's not enough liquidity in the disposals markets and that's why they're unable to offer them.
LONG STORY SHORT, the weekly AFL threads on these markets are read by their traders and because 98% of the discussion in these threads are focused on goal kicking props, they believe there's more liquidity in those markets.
None of you ever post bets with Betfair so we have no idea what they're on about when they say there's more liquidity and turnover in their goal kicking props. Often there's less than $200 traded in their goal kicking markets.
You guys won't care enough cause most of you are degenerates, but if you suddenly started posting disposals bets (regardless of they're on Betfair), their silly traders might reconsider offering 15+, 20+ and 25+ disposal markets again.
sb gave me @10s tailed it with a 'bet returns' incase 1 leg fails. i like it as it seems a good insurance bet incase my lions gs fail today.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,854
- 10,274
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- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Looking to bounce back after misreading Touk Miller and Anderson games yesterday.
Did some research into Brisbane key player performance at the Docklands. Its a ground they do well but some Ill back the trends.
1u
Oscar McInerney Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Joe Daniher Under 85.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.83
Big O has gone the under at the Marvel 7/7 games.
Big Joe has gone the under at the Marvel in 7 of his past 8 games.
Big Joe might have a big game today and kick a bag of 5 or 6 goals but it doesnt necessarily mean he will clear his Fantasy Line.
1u
Dunkley 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.79 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)
Zorko and Dunkley comfortably average over 100 plus at the Docklands past 3 seasons. And Ill back Harris Andrews to get 70+ Points as he averages around that at this ground. He is the risk but I can see Brisbane , who have a good record at the ground winning 7 of their past 8 , going through him for ball control in the backline.
0.5u
Dylan Moore Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
James Worpel Over 77.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Odds: $6.66
Gut based feel just watching the way Hawks have been going this season. And quick look at tables, all players cleared their lines in the last game at the Marvel against Bulldogs.
0.25u Lotto
Dylan Moore Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Oscar McInerney Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Dunkley Over 112.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $40.66
Will use the Big O line and go against it. Also Meek has been one of the big improvers in the ruck this season, with opposition teams not tending to rack up big scores against him, and Meek being able to hold his own.
Did some research into Brisbane key player performance at the Docklands. Its a ground they do well but some Ill back the trends.
1u
Oscar McInerney Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Joe Daniher Under 85.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.83
Big O has gone the under at the Marvel 7/7 games.
Big Joe has gone the under at the Marvel in 7 of his past 8 games.
Big Joe might have a big game today and kick a bag of 5 or 6 goals but it doesnt necessarily mean he will clear his Fantasy Line.
1u
Dunkley 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $3.79 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)
Zorko and Dunkley comfortably average over 100 plus at the Docklands past 3 seasons. And Ill back Harris Andrews to get 70+ Points as he averages around that at this ground. He is the risk but I can see Brisbane , who have a good record at the ground winning 7 of their past 8 , going through him for ball control in the backline.
0.5u
Dylan Moore Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
James Worpel Over 77.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Odds: $6.66
Gut based feel just watching the way Hawks have been going this season. And quick look at tables, all players cleared their lines in the last game at the Marvel against Bulldogs.
0.25u Lotto
Dylan Moore Over 84.5 Player Fantasy
Jarman Impey Over 83.5 Player Fantasy
Oscar McInerney Under 86.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Dunkley Over 112.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Zorko 100+ AFL Fantasy Points
Andrews 70+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $40.66
Will use the Big O line and go against it. Also Meek has been one of the big improvers in the ruck this season, with opposition teams not tending to rack up big scores against him, and Meek being able to hold his own.
Attachments
Hardwick 2
Dear 2
Ginnivan
Chol
@ 21 365
Dear 2
Ginnivan
Chol
@ 21 365
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,854
- 10,274
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
And a speculative little AFL Fantasy Same Game Multi:
Nothing more than just based on their averages from the past 3 seasons. Im using this as a bit of insurance.
Nothing more than just based on their averages from the past 3 seasons. Im using this as a bit of insurance.
Oh man! This happens all the time! Thanks man
Dear FG @ 21 SB
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,854
- 10,274
- AFL Club
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- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
PointsBet offer an AFL Fantasy handicap market but at 134% margin, they have to do better than that.....
I think Dunkley will perform at least 20+ points better than his next Brisbane Lions competitor.
Those odds should have at least another $1 on those.
I think Dunkley will perform at least 20+ points better than his next Brisbane Lions competitor.
Those odds should have at least another $1 on those.
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,510
- 24,147
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Amon, Newcombe, Dunkley, Berry 20+
Worpel, Wilmot, Bailey, Moore 15+
Lohmann, Ginnivan AGS
Moore, Bailey 2+
@70
Worpel, Wilmot, Bailey, Moore 15+
Lohmann, Ginnivan AGS
Moore, Bailey 2+
@70
- May 20, 2016
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i will follow you until my last breath lisan
- May 20, 2016
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well well well
I’m just going to call it what it is…
Nightmare weekend final desperation multi
Lions
Dunkley 20+
Worpel 15+
CC, Daniher, Rayner AGS
Broncos -5.5 (NRL)
Mariner or Walsh to score
Dees
Saints +57.5
Wanganeen-Milera, Bonner 20+
Fritsch AGS
Crows
Eagles +68.5
Laird, Dawson, Duggan, Kelly 20+
Reid 15+
Tex AGS
$53 SB Boost
Nightmare weekend final desperation multi
Lions
Dunkley 20+
Worpel 15+
CC, Daniher, Rayner AGS
Broncos -5.5 (NRL)
Mariner or Walsh to score
Dees
Saints +57.5
Wanganeen-Milera, Bonner 20+
Fritsch AGS
Crows
Eagles +68.5
Laird, Dawson, Duggan, Kelly 20+
Reid 15+
Tex AGS
$53 SB Boost
Blake Hardwick To Kick 2+ Goals
Logan Morris Anytime Goalscorer
Kai Lohmann Anytime Goalscorer
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer
$8.45 PB
Logan Morris Anytime Goalscorer
Kai Lohmann Anytime Goalscorer
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer
$8.45 PB
the mighty lohmann train continuing from last week!! he jumps the round 10 track into round 11!
Lohmann 2345g @3.60/11/41sb/71ts
ive gone a big bigger this week cause i now love the dude and his celebrations.. lol. 2g seems a good chance before gravy.
3u 2g+ @3.6 sb
3u 3g+ @11 sb
1u 4g+ @34 sb
1u 5g+ @71 ts
Lohmann 2345g @3.60/11/41sb/71ts
ive gone a big bigger this week cause i now love the dude and his celebrations.. lol. 2g seems a good chance before gravy.
3u 2g+ @3.6 sb
3u 3g+ @11 sb
1u 4g+ @34 sb
1u 5g+ @71 ts
Fizza
Club Legend
RYANNN!
- May 20, 2016
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sort your shit out lions
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,510
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I legit haven't sighted Zac Bailey
- May 20, 2016
- 8,724
- 13,063
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first game back from an injury campaigner
