Trades 2024 Fantasy Round 10 Trades

[Corkintheocean]

Just want to put out into the FanFooty ether that I strongly believe that people are making a mistake getting rid of Sheezel this week.

I understand that Sheezel has (for now) moved to a MID/FWD position. Despite this he has still averaged 80 over the last two weeks, including one match in Darwin (a stadium notoriously hard for players who are reliant on marks to score like Sheezel). Even with this position change I think that his worst case scenario for the remainder of the year is an 85 average, best case scenario he goes back to his old role and has a 115+ average. I'd have him as a 75% chance to still be a Top 6 defender for the rest of the year.

Trading Sheezel to Daicos only nets you ~ 90k, with a popular second trade being Roberts to Oliver. Essentially in this case you have spent two trades to swap one Top 6 Defender for another (Sheez to Daicos) and brought in one semi-premium (Oliver) for a rookie. If we assume that Sheezel is an 85 (remember, worst case) guy, Daicos is a 110 guy, Oliver is a 90 guy and an on-field rook is a 60, then you have improved your team by 55 points per week. Any dead rooks on the bench haven't been culled and are sitting there rotting.

If instead you go Graham > rook, Roberts > Daicos you have improved your team by 50 points per week (110 > 60) and ALSO culled a dead bench rook for another that will bring in more money (= additional future points)

Therefore in the very best case scenario (Sheezel averaging 85) I would say that the two options are approximately equal. If Sheez even goes 90 for the rest of the year you've well and truly lost on the trade.

Sorry for the essay, would love to hear people's thoughts on it.

Decent opinion and well argued.

You haven't mentioned the future cost of not bringing in the second premium this week. IE Oliver break even is now 74. This cost (with Oliver or elsewhere) will continue until your team is complete.

Daicos' high ownership % also a contributing factor to wanting him in asap.

Sheezel's bye round being Rd12 means he will be replaced by a lower tier player whereas by the time the Daicos bye occurs you will have been afforded a further 9 trades to cover his place on field with more suitably premium players.

Sheezel has Essendon and Port in his next two, you are assuming he avergaes 85 for the season from here. But what if he drops a real floor score of 55 or 60 in one (or both) of the next two weeks?

 

[Freo_4eva]

Either sheez>daicos and luko>Oliver

Or just a straight up luko to Oliver and get some cash going on the bench

 

[Phar Ace]

Either sheez>daicos and luko>Oliver

Or just a straight up luko to Oliver and get some cash going on the bench

The latter - never stop building cash rookies before the end of the Byes

 

[TY24]

At 2% ownership Warner could be a nice POD... seems to be pretty consistently between 90-100 unlike a lot of other players in the same bracket who have huge scores one week and 70s the next.

(This will almost certainly change, I don't think anyone has ever made good trades at 2.25am)

 

[amazingjoshy]

Just want to put out into the FanFooty ether that I strongly believe that people are making a mistake getting rid of Sheezel this week.

I understand that Sheezel has (for now) moved to a MID/FWD position. Despite this he has still averaged 80 over the last two weeks, including one match in Darwin (a stadium notoriously hard for players who are reliant on marks to score like Sheezel). Even with this position change I think that his worst case scenario for the remainder of the year is an 85 average, best case scenario he goes back to his old role and has a 115+ average. I'd have him as a 75% chance to still be a Top 6 defender for the rest of the year.

Trading Sheezel to Daicos only nets you ~ 90k, with a popular second trade being Roberts to Oliver. Essentially in this case you have spent two trades to swap one Top 6 Defender for another (Sheez to Daicos) and brought in one semi-premium (Oliver) for a rookie. If we assume that Sheezel is an 85 (remember, worst case) guy, Daicos is a 110 guy, Oliver is a 90 guy and an on-field rook is a 60, then you have improved your team by 55 points per week. Any dead rooks on the bench haven't been culled and are sitting there rotting.

If instead you go Graham > rook, Roberts > Daicos you have improved your team by 50 points per week (110 > 60) and ALSO culled a dead bench rook for another that will bring in more money (= additional future points)

Therefore in the very best case scenario (Sheezel averaging 85) I would aasay that the two options are approximately equal. If Sheez even goes 90 for the rest of the year you've well and truly lost on the trade.

Sorry for the essay, would love to hear people's thoughts on it.

I actually think I agree this week

I reckon last week was the time to do it if you were going to, amd going to Daicos for those that didnt have him was the most obvious move. Sheez to Daicos netted over 150k last week which gave you Daicos (who was almost a must have at his price) aswell as a solid upgrade on the other end.

I don't think it's really worth it anymore this week personally even though that I think if he keeps this new role, he won't be a top 6 defender from here to the end of the season

 

[WaynesWorld19]

OK Shaunn

Just show my foot is as big as my mouth on Sheezel .....He lost $50+K last week, looks like he'll lose another $50K this week

If Sheezel's role reverts back ....I can bring him back in after his R12 Bye at a much cheaper price

Both PORT and MELB both have excellent match-ups to their byes ....helps my R12 byes, by switching an R12 for an R13 player

PORT / MELB

 

[One Dimensional]

A. Sheez and Roberts to Dawson and Fisher
Or
B. Sheez and Roberts to Walsh and Oliver?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

A. Sheez and Roberts to Dawson and Fisher
Or
B. Sheez and Roberts to Walsh and Oliver?

Love the Dawson pick ....but not a fan of trading in another R12 player in Fisher, assuming you have Heeney

So as a combo, I prefer (B)

 

[Danger_zone]

I’m going to trade Fischer back in aren’t I?

 

[One Dimensional]

Love the Dawson pick ....but not a fan of trading in another R12 player in Fisher, assuming you have Heeney

So as a combo, I prefer (B)

Cheers, I don’t actually have Heeney
So I could probably afford another round 12 bye player.
Only currently have Gulden, Xerri, Powell (and Sheez)

 

[MP_]

My son is now ranked 860ish and has the audacity to tell me he might start taking the game seriously whilst here I am rank 40k and the most serious fantasy player in our family with a team full of potatoes

 

[Mezzoculo]

My son is now ranked 860ish and has the audacity to tell me he might start taking the game seriously whilst here I am rank 40k and the most serious fantasy player in our family with a team full of potatoes

Just tell your son that without potato farmers there wouldn't be McDonald's fries or Salt'n'Vinegar chips.

 

[JADED]

Love the Dawson pick ....but not a fan of trading in another R12 player in Fisher, assuming you have Heeney

So as a combo, I prefer (B)

I have Dawson but geez that calf strapping he had last week scares me.

 

[Barrybran]

Sheezel to Merrett
Roberts to Oliver

Pretty tempted by this for Monday trades. Would be down to Clohesy, Wilson and Reid on field then from a rookie stand point.

Please don't log into my account

 

[Barrybran]

I've considered Benny's advice (and should probably listen to it) but I have to back my gut this week. Roberts + Sheezel > Oliver + Merrett gets a rookie and two R12 bye players off field and two players I had on my preseason target list into the side.

I've shifted my team from R12-heavy to R14-heavy with these trades. Hopefully Burgoyne, Sweet and Graham come back in and generate more cash but I think I can have a "complete" team by R16, R15 if you ignore F6.

 

[tigs2010]

My son is now ranked 860ish and has the audacity to tell me he might start taking the game seriously whilst here I am rank 40k and the most serious fantasy player in our family with a team full of potatoes

Think I'm playing you in SFA League this week.

 

[Barrybran]

Think I'm playing you in SFA League this week.

I hope you both lose

 

[tigs2010]

I hope you both lose

Anything is possible.

Looks like MP started without Heeney, Gawn and Sheez who have all started to slow so a rank increase is incoming I think.

He's picked the eyes out of the value plays each week. Oliver Soligo and Dale all in the team.

 

[One Dimensional]

I have Dawson but geez that calf strapping he had last week scares me.

Didn’t watch that game and didn’t realise this.
I guess hearing something like this can easily sway me when making a 50 50 call.

 

[Balsam]

An interesting week for trades....

Last round I had five red dots, which really isn't good at this point of the season. My First priorities this week were Williams, Roberts and Graham, but I am also considering dumping Sheezel. Of my 25 players that are actually playing, I have 9 on the R12 bye, so I need to fix that.

The first thought was to lose Roberts and Williams, but now it looks like Williams might actually play. If so, I switch to Roberts and Graham out, which would get me Butters and a 200K rookie (if one is named). I could also go cheaper and get Wines or Dale and a more expensive rookie. If by some fluke Graham gets back in this week, it will be Williams and Sheezel out.

I have no problem dropping Sheezel now. As Wayne's World noted, he's going to drop in price for the next two weeks, so getting him back after the bye won't be an issue, assuming Clarkson realises he's made a mistake and moves him back where he belongs.

Team announcements are going to be very interesting...

 

[bettingonbetts]

Changing my trades.
Sheez out, playing aggressive. I doubt he goes back to HB with Fisher and McKercher getting their praises back there. Can always bring him back after the bye and skip him playing port. Just gonna close my eyes when I look at NM scores for the week.
Getting in Clarry and Green for Sheez and Reid. What’s everyone thoughts?
I have no r12 bye players in the mids before bringing Green in. Happy to run Sullivan on field during R12.

 

[Lukebatty97]

Changing my trades.
Sheez out, playing aggressive. I doubt he goes back to HB with Fisher and McKercher getting their praises back there. Can always bring him back after the bye and skip him playing port. Just gonna close my eyes when I look at NM scores for the week.
Getting in Clarry and Green for Sheez and Reid. What’s everyone thoughts?
I have no r12 bye players in the mids before bringing Green in. Happy to run Sullivan on field during R12.

Love it mate, especially after clarkos comments I think sheez stays in his role now. Clarry and green are great ins, absolutely bottomed out in price and best time to jump on.

 

[SM]

Yeah I think I'll give Dempsey one more week as Sheezel will drop more cash than Dempsey.

Sheezel > Oliver
Roberts > Serong

Works out ok for my Bye structure, leaves me with a premium split of 13-12-12-8 across the byes, so just need to focus on bringing in non-Rd 15 Bye premiums, probably mainly Rd 14 (GCS/CAR/GEE/ESS/MEL/WCE) so perhaps Merrett next week or Walsh.

 

[bettingonbetts]

Love it mate, especially after clarkos comments I think sheez stays in his role now. Clarry and green are great ins, absolutely bottomed out in price and best time to jump on.

Let’s hope it’s the right move!
What trades you got going this week?

 

[Uptipp]

Wouldn't say Sheezel will lose 200k, but the reasoning of getting him after his bye is a play if he goes back into the same role.

Agreed im thinking 100 I. Banking on the other player in this case mcrercher will gain me the other 100