balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFLW 2025 - AFLW Trade and Draft - All the player moves
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AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 12
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Modra6
Debutant
Going to take Hipwood for multiples against a horrendous bombers backline
4 - $6.50
5 - $15
6 - $51
4 - $6.50
5 - $15
6 - $51
Where are those odds at?
Modra6
Debutant
Was 4/5 dabble and 6 and PB. Looks a bit shorter now
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barcode_hairstyle
Rookie
- Jun 7, 2024
- 38
- 32
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Also hoping Zak Johnson can do quite well out of this decimated Essendon backline. 20+ 3.20 on Sportsbet is quite a bit more generous than what other books are offering if he can continue the rebounding role he's had in the VFL
D
Del125763
Guest
AFL Fantasy Friday Night for Collingwood v Hawthorn:
Darcy Cameron Over 98.5 pts
N Daicos Over 95.5 Pts
Jai Newcombe Over 92.5 Pts
J Daicos Over 89.5 Pts
Meek Over 85.5 Pts
Odds: $28 (0.375u) at Dabble
Same bet at Pointsbet with increments of D Cameron, Naicos and Newcombe to clear 100+, J Daicos and Meek to clear 90+ pays only $11
Darcy Cameron Over 98.5 pts
N Daicos Over 95.5 Pts
Jai Newcombe Over 92.5 Pts
J Daicos Over 89.5 Pts
Meek Over 85.5 Pts
Odds: $28 (0.375u) at Dabble
Same bet at Pointsbet with increments of D Cameron, Naicos and Newcombe to clear 100+, J Daicos and Meek to clear 90+ pays only $11
D
Del125763
Guest
Just noticed with 2 and a bit hours before kick off, PB pull off most of those players listed earlier for 100+ AFL Fantasy and 90+ AFL Fantasy:^^^
Plus I dont see the 120+ AFL Fantasy range for same game multi or single bets.
If there is someone PB reading this, I wasn't meant to hurt anyone by comparing the odds with Dabble.
There was a post in between our posts that was spamming some online casino.
It has since been removed, so it instead looks like I was calling your post a scam.
Thankfully, in this instance, I wasn't but if you want an online casino that provides $50 in free chips on sign up HMU as I know a plce
Hok ball.
1-12 or 13-24 halftime.
1-12 or 13-24 halftime.
Wizard
3,4,5 @ 6.50,20,75
365
3,4,5 @ 6.50,20,75
365
Once again another player that you bet on is yet to see the pill….
D
Del125763
Guest
Collingwood players go the OVER, Hawks go the UNDER.
PowerfulPies2023
Premiership Player
- Oct 5, 2023
- 4,826
- 2,989
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- Collingwood
Every week I see these goal scorer bets fail.
Waste.
Waste.
- May 20, 2016
- 10,134
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- GWS
keep watching you little cuck
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Long AGS
Frederick AGS
Ainsworth AGS
Serong, Miller, Rowell 20+
Ryan, Rioli, Bolton 15+
$10
Not very inspiring ideas from me today... Which is same almost every day. Got some 3-4 legs at 2.10-2.20 range.
Darcy Jones
Toby Greene 2
Rachele
Fog 2
@5.28 boosted SB
Darcy Jones
Toby Greene 2
Rachele
Fog 2
@5.28 boosted SB
Hogan 7+
D
Del125763
Guest
It’s just all a bit of fun. Most people here have goals of the 1%- of the real long shots (odds of around $100 or more to back)
and if we like burning money? Just not sure if this is the right forum to come on and bag people after they have lost bets.
We post bets, by all means query the bets and all. I know I’ve even riled posters in the past by questioning their bets at the time. A little bit of discussion is a good thing. I know in the past the bets I’ve posted forum users have given me a bet of a hint that my bet has been off track etc. The forum users probably know who they are , I’ll say “ thank you “
To them as it gives you a different angle to think of. Aussie Rules is highly unpredictable most of the times.
This is gambling at the end of the day. People kind of know what they are getting themselves into .
And for anyone having troubles with gambling, feel as an experienced bettor it’s right to mention there is help available:
And I think I said this after Round 0 thread but no one in here is under any obligation to post bets to please people. Maybe that might be a reason why these forums are bit quieter compared to yesteryear. People want to keep bets to themselves as I also don’t think it’s about being popular or to show off. Feel like tipping services or getting a bunch of punters to place bets at the same time , will crunch the odds in at some point. I think its based on supply v demand at the end of the day.
And I am aware there are tipping services available out there which probably have better Return of Investments (ROI) % and I’ll go “fair play” if they net you a positive return. If they make Bigfooty Punting board look bad or amateurs I’ll go “fair play”. There are websites out that where they mention about being profitable:
That might be your cup of tea? i kind of applaud posters here for posting their tips. Again they aren’t under any obligation to please people…this is pretty much what it is, a free and open public forum. I do believe in the saying there is "no such thing as a free lunch" but if you can gain something that is something of a 5-10% advantage in your bets- I guess thats where this forum is of benefit.
I admittedly, am currently using paid tipping services as well as different providers in the past- not specifically for AFL, but they have their perks and deeper insights with explanations, statistics and the terminology they use is 'cappers'. There does seem to be alot of time, effort in putting up bet tips for alot of these services too. In one case, I have seen them post a 2 page essay, on one tip alone. And there are loads of spreadsheets for particular games to assess things from another provider I have used- which gives a punter all the information they need before placing a bet. I wont name the specific service but I did notice alot of the odds get crunched for some unusual reason after the tips were posted on their platforms.
Betting on props like: goalscorers, disposals, tackles etc wasn't a thing even as recent as 12 years ago. I think its always good to see what other punters are betting on, as they have also been markets that are no longer available. The sports betting landscape moves quickly with bet options and all. This year I have seen a sportsbook offer 'multis'on : scoring involvements, tackles, marks. And even this weekend another sportsbook had a Quaddie option where you could multi highest scoring Fantasy in AFL for each position : ruck, defender, forward and mid. Ladbrokes are offering or Live Betting on : Goalscorer and disposals this year, which would have been unfathomable 5-20 years ago. And I kind of think to attract customers is they have to offer different options going ahead in future.
I keep a fairly deep spreadsheet for games at the Marvel, the average number of goals per game there is 28 goals per game since the stadium opened. (Didnt want to reveal that information) So I thought, if a sportsbook is offering odds on: AGS, 2+ Goals, 3+ Goals, 4+ goals etc, there has to be value at some stage in backing goalscorers. Im pretty sure in 2004 we as punters didn't have the option to bet on eg Fraser 'G Train' Gherig to kick 4+ or Barry Hall to kick 5+. The Same Game Multi concept would have been a foreign language way back in 2004 or even 2014.
Seeing alot of posts here put their goalscorer tips end up as losing tips recently, but im surely the tide will turn at some stage. There is a reason why sportsbooks don't offer the Únder option for alot of goascorer bets because they too, know what you guys probably know- that games will likely be low scoring during the winter phase of the season. Imagine having the ability to parlay 5 goalscorers on the Under in AFL if you have 'insider information' about: weather, team tactics, team lineups etc. Id like to personally see more betting options in future parlaying extreme unders on : disposals and goalscorers. eg We should have the ability to bet on Extreme Unders on N Daicos disposals Under 20.5, Under 25.5, Under 30.5 or Extreme Unders on Goalscorers Under 0.5 goal J Cameron, Under 1.5 goals J Cameron , Under 2.5 goals J Cameron. Its something that I would love to see happen but I doubt it will happen as the sportsbooks probably have their own way of making money off the 'Average Joe ' punter. I mean in the NBA you can parlay unders on the points/rebounds/assists/Made Threes/Steals/Blocks- and i assuming would be effective in a blowout. There is a well renown bettor on Twitter who parlays Unders in the NBA for a living, eg this was one of his slips recently:Why couldnt we offer a similar option in the AFL?
Sportsbet odds for J Cameron against Eagles:
I mean aside from wanting to rip punters off...........Im sure alot of punters would love, to have an option of betting Unders. And I mean alot! You could simply have the reciprocal of those odds or in the case of Sportsbet offer odds which is industry price. And I dare anyone who works for Sportsbet to see why they cant offer it. I really dare them too. Something like $10 on Under 0.5 goal, $6 on Under 1.5 Goal, $2.80 on Under 2.5 Goals, $1.60 on Under 3.5 Goals, $1.30 on Under 4.5 Goals, $1.10 on Under 5.5 goals for that J Cameron example. It would be a huge winner for Sportsbet if they were daring enough. Odds that keep everyone happy and competitive for themselves as well. My other reason for thinking why they don't want to offer it, is the Australian sports markets aren't experienced enough in dealing with under extremes compared to the American FanDuel /Draftkings/ Fantatics/BetMGM counteraparts. If you have a VPN I highly suggest you have a look at what Draftkings offer for their US markets, there is basically alot of lines available for all sorts of props. Much, much more deeper than what the Australian books release for the Australian sports markets.
There was a $23 winner posted yesterday by a forum user on Taranto 2+ Goals- so it really does come in full circle and most of the times winners come when you LEAST expect it to. Someone mentioned last year during the winter seasons (around Late May through to July) scoring of games generally are lower- so I think backers (especially the more seasoned ones) are fully aware of what they are getting into. Such is gambling it works in full circles, you can't keep losing forever. The laws of probability says things will even up.
At the end of the day our aim is to beat the books. And if we come across as eggshells in doing so , so be it.
But in the cases where we win as a group , it’s pretty satisfying.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ralphsmith 2 @ 23
Taranto 2 @ 23
365
Taranto 2 @ 23
365
