Adelaide Crows drafting: past patterns & poll predictions

[John Who]

After the initial trade period, the Crows currently have these draft picks: 8, 13, 16, 21, 73, 83.

With so much local talent for the choosing in this supposed Super Draft, the question Crows fans have been debating all through the off-season is whether or not to accept this natural scheme order, or to trade the early picks for a top 5 pick. Obviously a pick of a Lukosius, Rankine or Rozee would make SA fans licking their lips, and a very early pick (aim for pick 1 to 4, Port has pick 5) would make it a guarantee one of these big 3 would be ours for the picking.

With the constant raging debates on the ifs and buts of these future prospectives, I think it's worthwhile to go back in time and reflect on our 5 recent years of AFL National Draft picks. Here they are (in brackets are the draft selection numbers):

2013
Matt Crouch (23)
Riley Knight (46)

2014
Jake Lever (14)
Harrison Wigg (35)
Mitch McGovern (43)
Harry Dear (58)

2015
Wayne Milera (11)
Tom Doedee (17)

2016
Jordan Gallucci (15)
Myles Poholke (44)
Elliott Himmelberg (51)
Matthew Signorello (62)
Ben Davis (75)

2017
Darcy Fogarty (12)
Andrew McPherson (40)

If we look at our first picks of the last 5 years, it shows we have done tremendously well with the picks turning out to become regular AFL players, AA selections, Rising Star nominations, or soon-to-be AFL regulars. It's pleasing to note that the picks we have for first selections have been 12-23 for the past 5 years.

For this year's draft, we have pick 8 and 2 other picks in the teens in 13 and 16. This is going to be our best hand of picks in a long while, maybe ever!

The question is: do we want 2 of Lukosius/Rankine/Rozee, or do we want 4 of Lever/Milera/Fogarty/Galluci/Crouch?

 

[radiojake]

This is going to be our best hand of picks in a long while, maybe ever!

definitely ever

The only comparable draft hand that we would have had was in 2000

We had pick #7 which was infamously used to draft Lawrence Angwin

and we also had #12 which we got from Hawthorn for trading Shaun Rehn - We on-traded #12 to Port for Matthew Bode (Port picked Shaun Bourgoyne)


... it's actually crazy to think a player linked to Shaun Rehn's trade is still playing

 

[Smoooothy]

... it's actually crazy to think a player linked to Shaun Rehn's trade is still playing

there was a reddit thread on this pick a few weeks ago. quite a fascinating read

 

[StonesThrow]

After the initial trade period, the Crows currently have these draft picks: 8, 13, 16, 21, 73, 83.

With so much local talent for the choosing in this supposed Super Draft, the question Crows fans have been debating all through the off-season is whether or not to accept this natural scheme order, or to trade the early picks for a top 5 pick. Obviously a pick of a Lukosius, Rankine or Rozee would make SA fans licking their lips, and a very early pick (aim for pick 1 to 4, Port has pick 5) would make it a guarantee one of these big 3 would be ours for the picking.

With the constant raging debates on the ifs and buts of these future prospectives, I think it's worthwhile to go back in time and reflect on our 5 recent years of AFL National Draft picks. Here they are (in brackets are the draft selection numbers):

2013
Matt Crouch (23)
Riley Knight (46)

2014
Jake Lever (14)
Harrison Wigg (35)
Mitch McGovern (43)
Harry Dear (58)

2015
Wayne Milera (11)
Tom Doedee (17)

2016
Jordan Gallucci (15)
Myles Poholke (44)
Elliott Himmelberg (51)
Matthew Signorello (62)
Ben Davis (75)

2017
Darcy Fogarty (12)
Andrew McPherson (40)

If we look at our first picks of the last 5 years, it shows we have done tremendously well with the picks turning out to become regular AFL players, AA selections, Rising Star nominations, or soon-to-be AFL regulars. It's pleasing to note that the picks we have for first selections have been 12-23 for the past 5 years.

For this year's draft, we have pick 8 and 2 other picks in the teens in 13 and 16. This is going to be our best hand of picks in a long while, maybe ever!

The question is: do we want 2 of Lukosius/Rankine/Rozee, or do we want 4 of Lever/Milera/Fogarty/Galluci/Crouch?

Are these really the options though?

 

[weneverland]

We'll only use a maximum of four picks though won't we? I'd like to to see picks 73, 83 and one other bundled together for a slight upgrade. I believe these later picks had some currency in past drafts when some teams were bidding for academy players.

 

[John Who]

Are these really the options though?

Probably a bit oversimplified.
But the past stats really are to highlight the fact that our first pick has been generally very productive ones. Also the fact that all the picks we have chosen in the teens have been productive ones. So even if no top 4 picks, our hand with picks 8, 13, 16, and 21 are looking to land us a couple of potential elite players, if the past has any semblance to the present.

MCrouch coming in at pick 23 is reassuring in that a star player can be found with picks in the 20's, and not have to come from first round selections.

 

[John Who]

definitely ever

The only comparable draft hand that we would have had was in 2000

We had pick #7 which was infamously used to draft Lawrence Angwin

and we also had #12 which we got from Hawthorn for trading Shaun Rehn - We on-traded #12 to Port for Matthew Bode (Port picked Shaun Bourgoyne)


... it's actually crazy to think a player linked to Shaun Rehn's trade is still playing

And it's actually crazy to think we could have ended up with Shaun Burgoyne instead of Matthew Bode! Burgoyne is a star who is made for Finals. Bode was a...small forward.

 

[radiojake]

I think it's crazy Adelaide got pick #12 for a battle weary Shaun Rehn

I think draft picks are considered more expensive these days

 

[John Who]

I think it's crazy Adelaide got pick #12 for a battle weary Shaun Rehn

I think draft picks are considered more expensive these days

It's probably also due to the new era of free agency. Harder to keep a group of stars together these days, and draft picks are deemed more crucial to nurturing future stars.

 

[radiojake]

It's probably also due to the new era of free agency. Harder to keep a group of stars together these days, and draft picks are deemed more crucial to nurturing future stars.

i think it's more because of the less 'science' that was involved in drafting back then

recruiters were part time (if that) - it really was pot luck

 

[Coopers]

And it's actually crazy to think we could have ended up with Shaun Burgoyne instead of Matthew Bode! Burgoyne is a star who is made for Finals. Bode was a...small forward.

Well, Bode was a ready made player and Sburger was a draftee. So we went with what we needed at the time.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Well, Bode was a ready made player and Sburger was a draftee. So we went with what we needed at the time.

I hated that deal from day 1. Bode always looked a top up player.

 

[Sanders]

Well, Bode was a ready made player and Sburger was a draftee. So we went with what we needed at the time.

We were going to take Kane not burger

 

[headache1]

definitely ever

The only comparable draft hand that we would have had was in 2000

We had pick #7 which was infamously used to draft Lawrence Angwin

and we also had #12 which we got from Hawthorn for trading Shaun Rehn - We on-traded #12 to Port for Matthew Bode (Port picked Shaun Bourgoyne)


... it's actually crazy to think a player linked to Shaun Rehn's trade is still playing

I had tried to erase these things from my memory. What a ****ing disaster.

 

[skittlebrew]

Not a big fan of 2016, apart from Berg who I think was a steal at that pick.

Still time to be proven wrong though.

 

[Thetrader15]

After the initial trade period, the Crows currently have these draft picks: 8, 13, 16, 21, 73, 83.

With so much local talent for the choosing in this supposed Super Draft, the question Crows fans have been debating all through the off-season is whether or not to accept this natural scheme order, or to trade the early picks for a top 5 pick. Obviously a pick of a Lukosius, Rankine or Rozee would make SA fans licking their lips, and a very early pick (aim for pick 1 to 4, Port has pick 5) would make it a guarantee one of these big 3 would be ours for the picking.

With the constant raging debates on the ifs and buts of these future prospectives, I think it's worthwhile to go back in time and reflect on our 5 recent years of AFL National Draft picks. Here they are (in brackets are the draft selection numbers):

2013
Matt Crouch (23)
Riley Knight (46)

2014
Jake Lever (14)
Harrison Wigg (35)
Mitch McGovern (43)
Harry Dear (58)

2015
Wayne Milera (11)
Tom Doedee (17)

2016
Jordan Gallucci (15)
Myles Poholke (44)
Elliott Himmelberg (51)
Matthew Signorello (62)
Ben Davis (75)

2017
Darcy Fogarty (12)
Andrew McPherson (40)

If we look at our first picks of the last 5 years, it shows we have done tremendously well with the picks turning out to become regular AFL players, AA selections, Rising Star nominations, or soon-to-be AFL regulars. It's pleasing to note that the picks we have for first selections have been 12-23 for the past 5 years.

For this year's draft, we have pick 8 and 2 other picks in the teens in 13 and 16. This is going to be our best hand of picks in a long while, maybe ever!

The question is: do we want 2 of Lukosius/Rankine/Rozee, or do we want 4 of Lever/Milera/Fogarty/Galluci/Crouch?

Imagine going for a Dusty and Josh Kelly for Lever and Wigg

 

[GrommoT]

We'll only use a maximum of four picks though won't we? I'd like to to see picks 73, 83 and one other bundled together for a slight upgrade. I believe these later picks had some currency in past drafts when some teams were bidding for academy players.

Not since they put in the rule where the number of picks you can only go into the draft with is only as many as free list spots you have - 73 is a junk pick points wise (and 83 has not points).