AFL 2014 ROUND 3

[GROTTO]

Round 3
Friday, April 4 VENUE EDT LOCAL TIME
Hawthorn vs. Fremantle MCG 7.50pm 7.50pm
Saturday, April 5
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Etihad Stadium 1.45pm 1.45pm
Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Adelaide Oval 2.10pm 1.40pm
Gold Coast SUNS vs. Brisbane Lions Metricon Stadium 4.40pm 3.40pm
Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats MCG 7.40pm 7.40pm
West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Patersons Stadium 7.40pm 4.40pm
Sunday, April 6 EST*
GWS GIANTS vs. Melbourne GIANTS Stadium 1.10pm 1.10pm
North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Etihad Stadium 4.10pm 4.10pm
Essendon vs. Carlton MCG 7.10pm 7.10pm
*EST: Eastern Standard Time. Eastern Daylight time will conclude at 2am on Sunday, April 6.

I have noticed that Sportsbet had all the odds up for this round during the week but over the course of the weekend have removed them or changed the prices.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Port overs at 1.83. I like Port/WCE 40+ @2.43

 

[GROTTO]

Port unders at 1.83. I like Port/WCE 40+ @2.43

I took Port earlier in the week at $2.05, could not believe the odds. Hopefully it is a gift.

 

[Aed0s]

I'm new to weekly betting (I normally put on small fun bets to make my non-Collingwood games a bit more exciting).

1) I think Adelaide @2.25 are good value against the swans considering it's at Adelaide (no travelling / home game). Also, watching the Coll/swans match the swans look a bit out of touch, even when we're not playing the best footy either. They were also surprisingly beaten by the gws in round 1.

Port ran away against the Crows in the end, but with 56 inside 50s (more than Port) they were unfortunate in not translating anything onto the scoreboard.

J-pod would have to step up his game a lot though and present himself better against the swans.

Just my thoughts, I can't see them beating the swans by 40+ so Adelaide (1-39) @ 2.75 looks even more juicier and tender and delicious right about now.

2) Richmond 40+ @3.30 against Western Bulldogs looks enticing.

Their H2H has already moved from $1.50 to $1.35 after the doggies game today.

3) Freo H2H @1.90 against Hawthorn or @2.50 (1-39).

H2H already down from $2.15 or so from earlier in the day.

Hawks looked in trouble and under the pump against Essendon this week without Mitchell and sewell. Depends whether their star midfielders come return from injury.

4) Essendon 40+ @3.60 against Carlton.

Essendon look like they're in form, been starting the first half very nicely over the passed few years, unfortunate to lose to Hawthorn this week, been dominating possession-style footy, I really like this bet, especially when Carlton haven't been playing up to scratch in these first two rounds (many mistakes against Richmond) and loss to Port after being big favourites.

 

[Aed0s]

5) I forgot Port H2H @1.80.

I'm shattered that I didn't get them when they were $2 ish. They've been playing some really good football and surprised me with their win over Carlton and big win against Adelaide and I'm expecting big things from them this year, especially with inclusions like Polec, White (REALLY outstanding pick ups that are working for them).

 

[iluvparis]

Port - unders at 1.83 and overs at 1.80

I really should be a bookie.

 

[banana_bus]

I took Port earlier in the week at $2.05, could not believe the odds. Hopefully it is a gift.

But I thought North were a shoe in for the top 4???

 

[Jugada]

Early leans

Hawks as outsiders at the MCG all day, everyday if Mitchell and Sewell come back

Brisbane line. They have played well against the Hawks and Cats in the opening 2 rounds and the Suns are coming off a hard slog in the wet against the Dockers in Perth

 

[free at last]

Early leans

Hawks as outsiders at the MCG all day, everyday if Mitchell and Sewell come back

Brisbane line. They have played well against the Hawks and Cats in the opening 2 rounds and the Suns are coming off a hard slog in the wet against the Dockers in Perth

I can't recall the stat from travelling teams playing out west or vice versa but they invariably get done the following week.

 

[sneak]

5u ess win $1.60

 

[Lensen]

I can't recall the stat from travelling teams playing out west or vice versa but they invariably get done the following week.

the problem with not being able to recall stats but making statements on them anyway is that you remember an outlier or two and thus make incorrect assumptions

non-WA teams went 11-8 last year the week after playing in perth. good teams tended to win the next week, bad teams tended to lose. it is almost a non factor.

 

[sneak]

5u ess win $1.60

With tab I had the market framed at 1.30-1.35 other bookmakers have 1.48-1.50 so happy to take 1.60

 

[GROTTO]

I would be interested in the stats of non-WA teams in 2012 after playing in Perth if they are available.

West Coast in 2014 is going to be far different proposition for visiting teams compared to 2013.

Chism could you please make this thread a sticky. Thanks.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Dawson and Fyfe out. Just got the Hawks at $2.15

 

[Lensen]

I would be interested in the stats of non-WA teams in 2012 after playing in Perth if they are available.

West Coast in 2014 is going to be far different proposition for visiting teams compared to 2013.

Chism could you please make this thread a sticky. Thanks.

10-7. manual count via stats.rleague.com/afl - i would suggest keeping a note of that site

it's almost irrelevant

 

[Probitas_]

I would be interested in the stats of non-WA teams in 2012 after playing in Perth if they are available.

West Coast in 2014 is going to be far different proposition for visiting teams compared to 2013.

Chism could you please make this thread a sticky. Thanks.

There's really nothing suggesting that yet. We've literally done nothing so far that we didn't do last year, we just have a comically easy start to the season. Wait until we've played Geelong before making that judgement.

 

[Lensen]

Dawson and Fyfe out. Just got the Hawks at $2.15

great work, cheers

 

[GROTTO]

There's really nothing suggesting that yet. We've literally done nothing so far that we didn't do last year, we just have a comically easy start to the season. Wait until we've played Geelong before making that judgement.

The point I am trying to make is that your team last year was missing a lot of players and played very poorly, despite still being a mathematical chance of landing in the 8 in the last few rounds.

I am not suggesting that you guys will beat the top teams or contest for the flag just yet, but there are good signs emerging.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Hawthorn to win considering Fyfe and Dawson out which are big losses

 

[Probitas_]

The point I am trying to make is that your team last year was missing a lot of players and played very poorly, despite still being a mathematical chance of landing in the 8 in the last few rounds.

I am not suggesting that you guys will beat the top teams or contest for the flag just yet, but there are good signs emerging.

I agree, and definitely hope you're right (and off the record I think you are, there's a lot of things going our way and we are in a much better situation than we were last year) but time will tell. Plus we play all the bottom teams twice so hopefully will cause some issues for them during this season.

 

[sneak]

$100 freebet on hawthorn 2.05

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Hawks $2.15 at the G. Yes please.

 

[GROTTO]

Are the Crows friendless this weekend? I noticed odds of $2.25 for them at home.

 

[jaymasha]

Are the Crows friendless this weekend? I noticed odds of $2.25 for them at home.

Don't understand this, I think that's way overs IMO. Were out played and out ran by port, and it's not like their effort against the cats was horrible...

Sydney haven't been traveling great either, I reckon worth the punt.


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[X_box_X]

Loving the Hawks this week. I just took them at $2.10. Missed the $2.25 on offer last night. I actually just assumed the game was at Etihad based on those odds. I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw someone here mention it was at the 'G. To be honest, I reckon the Hawks should be slight favourites. Hawks have had the wood over Freo, and continue to be the only team to trouble the Dockers.