AFL 2014 ROUND 3

[Anzac16]

Like everyone on here loving the Hawks. Game is slightly in their favour even with the potential for a few players to miss. Dawson and Fyfe are 2 huge parts of Freo.

2U - Hawthorn H2H @ $2.10 (Centrebet)

 

[free at last]

the problem with not being able to recall stats but making statements on them anyway is that you remember an outlier or two and thus make incorrect assumptions

non-WA teams went 11-8 last year the week after playing in perth. good teams tended to win the next week, bad teams tended to lose. it is almost a non factor.

Cheers for that info,I'll be backing brissy at the line.

 

[Spads]

Cheers for that info,I'll be backing brissy at the line.

You've got it slightly wrong "free at lost". You fade Lenny's bets. Not his statistics.

 

[free at last]

You've got it slightly wrong "free at lost". You fade Lenny's bets. Not his statistics.

I was going to bet on brissy no matter what the stats showed.

 

[TheKanga]

Everyone getting on the Hawks, but i thought Mitchell and Hodge could be out?

I think Freo might get up still, but a no bet game for me at this stage.

 

[jaymasha]

Like everyone on here loving the Hawks. Game is slightly in their favour even with the potential for a few players to miss. Dawson and Fyfe are 2 huge parts of Freo.

2U - Hawthorn H2H @ $2.10 (Centrebet)

Hawks into port into Adelaide for a roughie?


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[Anzac16]

Hawks into port into Adelaide for a roughie?


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Definitely could be a goer. I'd say right now Hawks 60/40, Port 65/35, Crows 50/50 to win. Hawks mainly just depends on the fitness of Hodge, Mitchell, Stratton, Schoenmakers etc. Would say they need at least 2 of those guys to play in order to go in as firm favorites. Freo will be wanting revenge for the Grand Final, but the Hawks just find a way to win like they did on Friday. For that reason I've backed them.

Port should get up against the Kangas if they keep playing they way they are. Kangas have got a heap of potential still but we haven't seen it so far this year. Port are on a great roll at the moment and should get to 3-0.

Crows are the big question mark for me. Played 3 good quarters of footy against Geelong but made a heap of costly mistakes against Port last week. Swans are a great side but have lacked form lately and who knows what kind of footy they will show up and play.

 

[yamahamoto]

Freo with fyfe and Dawson missing. Sad to say but Dawson is actually important to Freo's structure. It lets Johson plays as a rebound defense.

 

[jaymasha]

Definitely could be a goer. I'd say right now Hawks 60/40, Port 65/35, Crows 50/50 to win. Hawks mainly just depends on the fitness of Hodge, Mitchell, Stratton, Schoenmakers etc. Would say they need at least 2 of those guys to play in order to go in as firm favorites. Freo will be wanting revenge for the Grand Final, but the Hawks just find a way to win like they did on Friday. For that reason I've backed them.

Port should get up against the Kangas if they keep playing they way they are. Kangas have got a heap of potential still but we haven't seen it so far this year. Port are on a great roll at the moment and should get to 3-0.

Crows are the big question mark for me. Played 3 good quarters of footy against Geelong but made a heap of costly mistakes against Port last week. Swans are a great side but have lacked form lately and who knows what kind of footy they will show up and play.

Fair call. Think if Adelaide can hit targets going inside 50 they're a real chance, and I can see port running all over north. Hawks are an interesting one, can't think of too many games they'll go in as underdogs with the bookies.


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[jaymasha]

Five leg super multi, system three at 50% (sounds really weak on my part):

Hawks under 39.5
Richmond under 39.5
Adelaide under 39.5
Gold Coast under 39.5
Collingwood under 39.5



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[yamahamoto]

Barlow to miss 4 weeks as well. No way Freo is fav now

 

[Quite Ironic]

Port $1.75
Essendon $1.52

=$2.60 multi yes please.

 

[GROTTO]

Port $1.75
Essendon $1.52

=$2.60 multi yes please.

I have seen the Roos play and Port play. I am staggered to understand why Port are not shorter than this.

 

[Lensen]

remember when the 5-0 port played the 1-4 north last year in hobart

i mean port are probably better than they were last year and north are a bit off but north have a pretty good record vs port

 

[GROTTO]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-04-01/port-ignores-roo-hoodoo

"Port has endured a lousy record against the Kangaroos, winning just eight of 28 clashes between the two teams since 1997."

With statistics the trick is identifying those that are relevant and those that are not.

There is a chalk and cheese difference between Port in 2012 compared to Port in 2013 onwards. With that said Port won only 1 out of their 3 games at the Dome last year. Roo's won 8 games out of 13 last year at the Dome.

Port are 1 from 1 and Roos are 1 from 2 at the Dome this year.

 

[X_box_X]

A few people here liking Essendon this week. It doesn't matter where Essendon and Carlton are on the ladder, or the respective forms of the teams, whenever they play, results are always unpredictable. Why is Essendon such a good thing at any price under $2? If anything, results between these two sides indicate you should always back the underdog.

If you had put $100 on the underdog every time these two teams played since 1897 (even when you were in your dad's father's dad's ball sack), you would be up $11,437, as of 24/08/2013.

I may or may not have made that last part up.

 

[Willzzz]

One early bet for me

2.5U - Hawthorn -3.5 @ $1.91

 

[yamahamoto]

Why so early? Don't you want to see if hodge Mitchell Sewell are playing this week?

 

[robertbn]

Hi guys,
I've got the algorithm up and running for another season, and thought I'd share some of its insight here. It's already up a neat amount from the first two round, with some tidy wins on GWS, and a couple on St. Kilda. I've included line betting this year too, along with some articles on interesting statistics from the weekend's games.

This week, I rate these teams as worth a punt. Based on odds from Pinnacle.

Hawthorn at $1.813 (Bet 19.0% of pot)
The Bulldogs at $3.560 (Bet 16.0% of pot)
Adelaide at $2.340 (Bet 14.0% of pot)
The Kangaroos at $2.130 (Bet 25.0% of pot)

Line bets haven't been posted yet, but I'll put them up when they come out.

Read more at http://AFLpredictions.wordpress.com

 

[Willzzz]

Why so early? Don't you want to see if hodge Mitchell Sewell are playing this week?

Pretty sure the line will move out against me.

Happy to take the Hawks with Fyfe/Barlow/Dawson confirmed outs. I expect Mitchell & Sewell to play, Hodge to miss.
Wouldn't matter too much though, don't think Fremantle will get close.

 

[free at last]

Pretty sure the line will move out against me.

Happy to take the Hawks with Fyfe/Barlow/Dawson confirmed outs. I expect Mitchell & Sewell to play, Hodge to miss.
Wouldn't matter too much though,

Pretty sure the line will move out against me.

Happy to take the Hawks with Fyfe/Barlow/Dawson confirmed outs. I expect Mitchell & Sewell to play, Hodge to miss.
Wouldn't matter too much though, don't think Fremantle will get close.

Mitchell,hodge and Sewell won't play IMO.

RTB will bring in like for like replacements for fyfe,Barlow and Dawson.

We'll win this Willzz.

 

[GROTTO]

Adelaide at $2.340 (Bet 14.0% of pot)

How have you determined Adelaide's home ground advantage? How significant is it that the Crows played the previous week at AO and the Swans have never played on this ground.

 

[Pancakes]

remember when the 5-0 port played the 1-4 north last year in hobart

i mean port are probably better than they were last year and north are a bit off but north have a pretty good record vs port

Was that the game which North narrowly won even with a free kick count off 55-6 in their favour (or some such silly difference)?
One of the few games I have ever watched where I genuinely thought the umpires must have cash on one team.

Port should beat North this week, comfortably too I reckon.

 

[Dougz]

H2H - Port @1.73 2U

As said above the last time these 2 teams met, was at Blundstone Arena 93-83 in favor of NM - Free kick counter being 38-15.

Port have kicked 18 goals or more in there last 2 games while NM have been struggling to hit the score board. Port are playing a much better brand of footy against similar opposition in Adelaide and Carlton (Also played at ES). Last week it took a huge Qtr from Brent Harvey to get NM across the line against weaker competition.

Don't forget Andrew Swallow is also still injured.

 

[IQ3]

Can someone explain to me how Essendon are @1.50? Surely going on form they should be $1.25ish against Carlton?